I am not sure I have ever seen a situation quite like either of these, let alone two at one time. What is going on here?
The Marlins have reportedly agreed to two trades for the same player: Giancarlo Stanton to the Cardinals and to the Giants. Since Stanton has a full no-trade clause, he can choose which trade he wants to be part of or not. He can turn down both of them if he wants to. If he does, it either means he is holding out for a deal with the Dodgers or he is calling the Marlins bluff about trading the rest of the team out from under him, or maybe he just likes playing in Miami enough that he doesn't care if he is the only good player on the team. Or he may think he can outlast the rebuild? He has a 10 year contract which is enough time for the Marlins to rebuild their farm system and put a team of good young players around him long before the end of his contract? More likely he will choose between the Giants and the Cardinals.
Both the Giants and Cardinals are first class organizations who have demonstrated they are willing to spend money to field good teams year in and year out. The Giants probably have the advantage in location while the Cardinals appear to have a stronger position to field a competitive roster around him, at least in the short term. How long will we have to wait for Stanton to decide?
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Japanese 2-way star and free agent Shohei Ohtani has narrowed his choices to 7 teams, all but two of which are on the west coast. The A's are out, the rest of the west coast teams including the Giants are in. The Cubs and Rangers also made the final list which means the Yankees and Red Sox did not. The Giants and Mariners seem to be the two teams that have made the strongest pitches to Ohtani. Is the city of San Francisco's historic connection to Japan and it's culture a plus here? Will having a bench coach who speaks Japanese be a deciding factor? Does Dave Roberts speak Japanese too?
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So, the Giants would seem to have at least a 50% chance of landing at least one of Stanton and Ohtani maybe more as they seem to have close to a 50% chance to get Stanton and seem to have better than 1 in 7 odds of signing Ohtani. Adding one would be a big boost to their fortunes. Adding both in one offseason would be transformative. Unfortunately, the Giants have finished second in these types of signing competitions enough in the last 10 years that I still refuse to get my hopes up too high here. For some reason a memory keeps gnawing at me of the 1972 NFL football season when the Niners and Raiders were both in their respective championship games. There was a 75% chance that one of them would be in the Super Bowl. Both teams actually led their games late only to lose to a flurry of Roger Staubach TD passes and the immortal Immaculate Reception.
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New batting coach Alonzo Powell is also a Japanese speaker, and in fact, spent 7 seasons there playing, and still goes back to Japan to conduct training programs. Also, our bullpen catcher, Uematsu, is a Japanese native who attained his dream of being in MLB and living in America, he should be a great source for Ohtani on where to go for home comforts, and a resource to rely on.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Roberts does speak some Japanese, as his mother is Japanese (I know, right?!?), but said in an interview that he'll need to visit her to brush up on his Japanese, so I think our coaches are way ahead of him in speaking.
Also, despite his almost signing with Dodgers when he was 18, it is rumored that they are not favored in any way due to that. He noted in interview in spring that management personnel changes, so the three teams who pursued him the most, Dodgers, Rangers, and Giants, would not necessarily be the favorites.
As we know, the Giants front office has basically been the same forever, and especially since they last recruited him, so the implication for us from this is that this would favor the Giants (though also Rangers too, Daniels still there, presumably others of his team too). But to be clear, no rumored favoritism for any team that I've seen yet, this is my interpretation based on facts I've seen.
I'm hoping Ohtani sees the beauty of the three headed co-ace monster rotation of Bumgarner-Cueto-Ohtani, with strong support from Moore and Samardzija. That brings us back to 2009-2012 era of great rotation, where we win even with a low offense, as we had last season. Hopefully Crawford returns to prior norms, Belt stays healthy, even Sandoval as is, is an upgrade over our composite 3B for 2017, and all that would boost our offense over 2017 without additions. I've been wondering if Sabean's talk about 3B was to get Sandoval to work hard in off-season to get into playing shape, and to win that spot over whoever we sign.
I also hope the Giants see the beauty of having Stanton, and thus won't sell off Samardzija to clear payroll. DrB, do you know if there is a loophole where we can basically give Span to another team (with money, like we did with Livan), and thus reduce the CBT payroll? I don't think the Giants would do that to Pence, but Span, sure (and he was the rumored add in for Marlins deal to clear salary from our end, but which got nixed).
Per the guy who has been reporting the most on Stanton, he thinks Stanton leans more towards picking Giants than Cards, but also gives Dodgers equal odds as Cards, so there's that too, so maybe 40/30/30 is his take. The Dodgers apparently are still talking with the Marlins over the weekend, so he appears to know what he's talking about, and I assume Stanton will want to play that out first since he grew up Dodgers fan and the rumors are that he prefers to play there, though haven't ruled out the Giants or Cards either. Perhaps Bonds being here is what leans him here (most say it is being back in CA)? I've read that he still stays in touch with Bonds and ask for advice. In any case, we'll have to wait out Dodger's discussions with Marlins for at least a couple more days.
Yeah, I'm with you regarding the Giants odds. If anything, public negotiations like this seems to be the Giants Achilles Heel, where they don't get the player. And our history is not the best, last 10 years or ever. So as exciting as all this is, I'll only get really excited once it happens for us.
ReplyDeleteThat said, there seems to be a lot of factors that are favorable for the Giants: local Asians, Japanese speaking personnel, winning culture/history, Bumgarner handling, Belt handling, prior pursuit, need for him, spots for him, good and advanced training/coaches, pitching focus and pitchers park. The problem is that we don't know what Ohtani's true preferences are nor what the teams have said to him. Those are huge factors, as his main goals are 1) to be major leaguer and 2) to be a two-way player, but we don't know about his secondary considerations, like need for prior acclimation experience (Mariners have a lot of it) or Asian density preferences or Japanese language coaches (he wants to learn English, been studying), more touchy-feely considerations. He wants to live in America, but is home comforts his preference or something he must have? We don't know exactly. All we know is that the Giants are good enough to be a finalist.
This is so reminiscent of college basketball recruiting. Nerve wracking and it often ends in bitter disappointment. And then you look back and think how was I delusional?
ReplyDelete1. Stanton can also bide his time and can opt out in 2020 (I believe). I could think of worse fates than making $75 million in three years before job hunting...
ReplyDelete2. If it could help lad Ohtani, I'd learn Japanese and wear a clown-suit everyday he was on the roster.
3. The Cardinals are another 2nd Place Hot Stove team. Every week, on the sports radio, I hear about it. How they keep coming in second to other teams in the big FA market.
I wonder if the AL teams in the Ohtani finals would really let him bat when he pitches -- that's 30+/- games per year they lose the DH if he hits as a pitcher and he comes out of the game.
ReplyDeleteOn the day after he pitches, would being in the field be a problem? He's tall, he could play 1st base if outfield throws would be bad. His throwing arm is away from the base (and the runner).
Of 4 possibilities, which is the most likely (and least likely):
1. Hits and pitches like an adequate major leaguer.
2. Pitches well enough for his salary but can't quite handle big league pitching.
3. Hits OK, but 8 major league bats (9 in the AL) are more than he's seen. (Another reason to choose the DL-free NL -- fewer big bats to face!)
4. Has good AAA or even AAAA skills.
My vote for most likely is 2 and least likely is 1.
Even if the Giants were to win the double lottery, they still need a CFer!
Cameron Maybin done
DeleteIf one could sign Maybin and be done, Maybin would be expensive; if he’s affordable, he isn’t a simple answer to the Giants’ problem in CF. Or an answer at all: he can’t field well, judging by his negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. He can’t create runs, judging by his having a wRC+ over 100 only once since 2012. Fangraphs uses 2.0 WAR as a floor for a qualified position-player starter, and only once since 2012 did Maybin exceed that; four of the six seasons he was at 1.2 fWAR or lower. He will be 31 in April. This isn’t promising.
DeleteI believe either Brian Sabean or Bobby Evans are on record as saying if the Giants were able to trade for Stanton, it would take pressure off the CF situation and they would feel more comfortable fast tracking Steven Duggar and filling the position from within.
DeleteAs for Maybin, there are some important factors that Campanari leaves out here: 1. While Maybin's overall defensive numbers are negative, he is still positive if you isolate his play in CF. 2. WAR is a cumulative stat and Maybin has been a part time player. If he were to be the starting CF and stay healthy, he would very likely put up an. WAR well north of 2.0.
I believe Maybin is potentially one of the bargain FA's of this offseason.
Giants first to meet with Ohtani. Do you think that is good or is it bad? I want to get your opinion, as I have my thoughts.
ReplyDeleteFirst mention of Arroyo as possible part of Stanton deal. That makes more sense to me, I originally thought of Arroyo and Andrew Suarez as the package because both have local Florida ties that would make sense for promotions, as well as being good players. Maybe Arroyo, Shaw, and a pitcher like Suarez or Beede.
I think the Giants aggressiveness in bidding on and meeting with both Stanton and Ohtani is a good thing. Players are people and people want to be wanted. It may not be the biggest factor or the deciding factor, but whether you are a company recruiting valuable employee or a baseball team recruiting a player, you want to make that recruit feel wanted and needed. Unless the Giants presentation is completely ham handed, they appear to be doing everything in their power to convince these players to choose the Giants.
DeleteAnd especially so with Ohtani, he wants that touchy-feely stuff. He said in an interview that he wants the feeling of wanting to play for the players and manager/coaches.
DeleteBut what I was trying to ask was this: I assume Ohtani and this team selected to meet with the Giants first; do you think that is a good thing, that they wanted to see the Giants first because they favor them, or do you think that is a bad thing, that they wanted to get them out of the way, or that their memory of the Giants will fade with each new team interview, or any other bad thing that might happen being the first to present? Or even, do you see it as neither good nor bad, just is? Thanks for your thoughts.
When recruiting a player, a college basketball coach always wanted to make the last pitch. Dean Smith would sometimes see a player at night on the final day of recruiting. That said, what I like about the Giants' visit is they dove right in and are not messing around. Really like their commitment. If Ohtani goes elsewhere, don't think I can fault their effort.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely can't fault their effort and commitment. They have been pursuing him since he was in HS. Reminds me of that tall (6' 7"? 8"?) amateur who they drafted 3 years in roll, before letting another team draft him,
DeleteOr really fault anything, Ohtani has not made it absolutely clear what are the factors affecting his decision, though his questionnaire gives a peek into that window. So it would be hard to fault any team, all you can do is give it your best shot and see what happens.
John Shea of the Chronicle has a nice article up on how the Giants match up with Ohtani, which read true to me, based on all the articles I've read about Ohtani. Also had rumor from someone aware of Ohtani's thinking that it's down to the Giants and Cubs. What excitement for Giants fans this off-season, as DrB noted, one is odd enough, but two happening, and basically at the same time, wow!
The article also said Ohtani wants to make his decision before the winter meetings if possible to avoid holding up the free agent market which is considerate of him. Would be exciting if the Giants can sign him. If he plays like a young phenom, he could bring a lot of energy to the veteran players, thinking back to Will Clark's 1st season. I would think that Stanton needs to make a decision by the Winter Meetings, otherwise he'll stay in Miami. Cards and Giants would have to move on by then.
ReplyDeleteLG
Unless the Dodgers make some sort of Yuli Gurriel move, if they want him, why wouldn't they win the Ohtani sweepstakes?
ReplyDeleteThey have the "right" stuff from ownership (have-money-will-spend-it and Magic if Ohtani knows who that is), a competent half Japanese manager, very set/powerful team, and a rotation led by all-world Clayton Kershaw as well as a bull pen and a closer.
Sure their ball park is old but its major problem -- getting there and getting away -- won't be faced by Ohtani. It's a beautiful place to play and to watch games.
For about 12-million people, LA weather is the best in the world.
There are 25 non stop flights between Tokyo and Japan every day. Seattle and SF may be closer, but the time difference to travel is 30 minutes +/-.
I can hear the last question: as a token of how much we want you, who would you like in the next locker-- name anyone, from the major league's current best pitcher to, if you'd like, you can have Yu!
One rumor has it that Ohtani does not particularly want to go to a team with a history of star Japanese players. He'd rather make his own legacy. If true, that would tend to downgrade the chances of the Mariners, Dodgers and Rangers.
DeleteOne major theory out there is the Padres are the favorites to sign him for several reasons.