Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Hot Stove Update: Waiting for Shohei and Stanton

While the Giants and their fans waited patiently for Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani to make up their minds about playing in San Francisco, a few other teams moved forward with lesser transactions:

The Angels pounced on former uber prospect, Kevin Maitan, SS, with a $2.2 M bonus.  Maitan was once considered the top international prospect and was signed by the Braves to a large bonus, but struggled last year to a .241 BA in the Appalachian League and appeared to be noticeably, ahem, less athletic in the process.  Apparently the Angels are willing to bet a large portion of their 2018-2019 international bonus pool that this is a temporary.

The Angels also signed former Braves prospect, Livan Soto, SS, to an $850 K bonus.

The Phillies signed former Braves prospect, Abraham Gutierrez, C, to a $550 K bonus.

The Royals signed former Braves prospect, Yefri Del Rosario, RHP, to a $650 K bonus.

The Royals also signed RHP Willy Peralta to a major league contract for $1.5 M for 1 season with a $3 M option and $25 K buyout for 2019.  The deal contains an additional $1.25 M in incentives for each season.  Peralta has struggled for the past 2 seasons with the Brewers but his FB was still averaging 96 MPH last season, so there is some hope for a turnaround.

The Tigers signed CF Leonys Martin for $1.7 M with $1.1 M in incentives.  Martin is a plus defensive CF but challenged at the plate.

The Cardinals signed RHP Miles Mikolas to a 2 year/$15.5 M contract.  Mikolas posted a 5.32 ERA in MLB from 2012-2014, then went to Japan and produced a 2.18 ERA over 424.1 IP the past 3 seasons.

The Rangers signed LHP Mike Minor, a former first round draft pick to a multiyear contract the terms  of which were not known by MLBTR at reporting time.  Minor struggled early in his MLB career but found traction last year as a reliever.  The Rangers reportedly want to try him as a SP again.

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Craig Mish of Sirius XM radio is reporting that the Giants proposed deal with the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton does include Heliot Ramos and Christian Arroyo.  Henry Schulman hears that Arroyo is not part of the deal.  Sounds like the Giants are willing to empty out their farm system for Stanton as well as take on most of his contract.  Hate to say it, but that's about right.

26 comments:

  1. Dr.BG, why are the giants including Ramos, staton can opt out in 2 years and we are paying a ton in tax, and absorbing $250 million this trade is becoming a headache and staton, really doesn't want to play for the giants, he wants the Dodgers. I think panik, medical came back bad, your thoughts.

    Mike

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    1. Because the Marlins want Ramos and the Giants want Stanton. Simple as that.

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    2. Also, including Panik does not make much sense for either team unless Dee Gordon is coming to the Giants and we haven't heard his name in awhile now.

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    3. Is the reason Stanton is "transformative" for the 64-98 Giants and not the 77-85 Marlins the pitching staffs?
      If the down cycles for the Giants hitters, the untimely injuries, the seeming bad situational luck, and the non-stellar defense have bottomed out, will adding Stanton to "good" Giants mean 30 more wins?
      At least it may be exciting!

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    4. I think I said getting both Stanton and Shohei would be transformative. But yeah, Stanton would be a huge add. Yes, it will take more than Stanton. The Giants would need a combination of Stanton, better luck and better health, but the potential is there for just as big an impact as adding Barry Bonds in 1993.

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  2. A host on a sports talk show in the Bay Area, who says he has a reputable source on Giants matters who is rarely wrong says the names being talked about are off from the names reported and that a major leaguer is involved. I hope that's the case as I would hate to give up Ramos, I wouldn't be as sad about the other names mentioned. His guy is also very optimistic about both Stanton and Ohtani ending up with the Giants with Ohtani being the Giants number 1 priority.

    Coach B

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  3. Thanks,Doc. I really appreciate the quick reply, and love your blog. I have another question, I think the Giants, will use the #2 pick on rule 5 draft on a player or will draft a player for another team and trade the player to that team. I talk to a sjGiants announcer all the time, and he says the Giants, will not use #2 pick, your thoughts again. I like kole Stewart a lot,let's see what dick to grow can turn this kid around.

    Mike

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    1. They have an open 40 man roster spot which they may be saving for Stanton or Ohtani. It just seems to me you maximize your 40 man roster and drop someone if you have to, so if it is still open on Rule 5 draft day, then why not? It only costs $50 K and they can offer the player back for $25 K if they decide they don't need him after all.

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    2. Thanks,Doc. I think that when you lose close to a 100 games you have to look for talent in all area's. Why don't they draft a player for the Miami.is,it me, for the Rule 5 draft is deep this year in talent. I know it is still a crap shot, that being the draft. I think that the 2nd overall pick even in the Rule 5 draft, is nothing to blow off, especially when you lose 98 games.

      Mike

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    3. It depends on their 40 man roster situation, but yes, I would like to see them make a selection in the Rule 5 draft at #2 overall if at all possible. I would not assume they are stupid if they don't, though. The Giants do scout for these things and if they don't take someone, it's probably because they just don't see someone who they think is worth the trouble.

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  4. I kind of hated it when news came out that Ramos's name was included in the trade, and now Arroyo's name is thrown in there to boot. That's pretty steep if Stanton keeps his opt out after a few seasons. But the Giants do have the #2 pick this draft and could get maybe a Jarred Kelenic ( Or someone else.) to possibly offset the loss of trading Ramos. But could you imagine in 2021 having Ramos and Kelenic playing for the Giants and at the same time Kershaw on the decline. What a wonderful thought. If Arroyo, who I like better at 2B, is part of the trade then who will play 3B next season? Panda?!? Highly unlikely though the world can be crazy. But in the end you to give value to get value. Its not like Beede is some great prospect. He is too inconsistent, especially after four seasons in the minors. Shaw has nice power, but not really much else. His value isn't all that sky high either for a trade like this, I mean at the AAA he isn't even considered in the top 100 prospects or a top 10 1B prospect. Not that those lists are a be all end all, they still do represent a basic consensus of value in the baseball world thru information gathering and scouting. But losing Arroyo with Ramos, while taking on all that salary? Man that is pretty steep. The Marlins weren't biting on Reynolds or Slater? Hopefully its just one of either Ramos or Arroyo, with my preference being to keep Arroyo over Ramos. I think Ramos is probably the better prospect and think he will eventually be the better player, but Arroyo is needed at 3B now and if your trading for Stanton your trading for now. Plus he can possibly eventually replace Panik at 2B.

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  5. There is a player in the Mariners organization, Ian Miller. He is 6'0 and 175. Bats L, throws R. A battler all throughout his career. Walk-on at Wagner College (NJ). 13th round draft by Seattle in 2013. He will be 26 in February. He can field, he can run, and he can throw. One of the fastest guys in the minors (running a 6.26 60-yard dash). Can play a dynamite CF. His hitting was suspect early in his career, but last year he started to put it together - he had a .326 batting average and also stole 30 bases to just four caught stealing and racked up a whopping 112 hits in 83 Double-A games. If he can sustain his improvement in hitting, he is a natural CF and lead off hitter.

    He was left off the 40 man by Seattle, so he is eligible for a Rule 5 Draft selection. I think the Giants should take him.

    More info on Ian Miller:
    https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/1/7/14168856/ian-miller-firestarter-meet-the-mariners-fastest-prospect

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    Replies
    1. I think you should apply for a job as a scout

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    2. Low downside except he has to be on the active roster until SF decides to lose him.
      Fits with a Span/Pence platoon in LF and the power RFer (which begins with S) and includes Pence for days off.
      Still room for another OFer: Duggar, Slater, Parker, Williamson, Hernandez, and anyone else Giants decide to dust off from the ash pile.

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    3. I saw Miler mentioned as a prime Rule 5 Draft candidate on another site, can't find it right now. I guess it never hurts to have depth, but what evidence do we. have that Miller would be a CF option than Steven Duggar?

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    4. That's exactly the point, you can't tell between the two which will be able to turn the corner, so you hedge your bet by bringing in a doppelganger and allowing them both 200+ ABs if the first one does not take off out of the gate.

      It's a really important position for the Giants to lock down, need to increase their chances of hitting and realistically, neither guy is a particularly strong bet to be a better than average MLB starter, no matter how optimistic we are nor how much we like either fella.

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    5. There is only so much room on one roster and they have to keep a Rule 5 draftee on the 25-man or offer him back to the team they drafted him from, so it's not quite as simple as stockpiling talent.

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    6. First, to Rainball and Anonymous, many thanks for the kind words.

      Now, on to DrB: Yes, what you say about the requirement of keeping a Rule 5 draftee on the 25-man roster is true. However, I point out the following...

      1) The current Giants roster for OF's is as follows: Gorkys Hernandez, Jarrett Parker, Hunter Pence, Austin Slater, Denard Span, Mac Williamson. Some of these guys can play CF - Hernandez, and (possibly) Slater. And I am not sure either of them will be a great defensive CF. And neither of them seem to be a lead off guy (frankly, I don't see any of the OF as a lead off guy).
      Ian Miller can make plays like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CriQMu3pFIA

      2) I like Steven Duggar and Heliot Ramos. But Duggar is still in AAA, and struggled with injuries to his arm (flexor) and leg (hamstring) last season. What if he has another situation like that this year? Would it not be a good idea to secure some insurance? And Ramos is at least 2 years away from SF - if all goes well with him, that is.

      3) I am not sure the Giants have a true lead off guy on their roster. In addition to the above mentioned OF's, there are the following IF's: Christian Arroyo, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Miguel Gomez, Ryder Jones, Joe Panik, Pablo Sandoval, Kelby Tomlinson. The only potential lead off guy I see is Tomlinson, and they would have to play him at 3B over Arroyo (the best defensive 3B of that group) and Panda/Jones (potential power guys on a team that needs power guys). So Tomlinson may not have a place to play every day on the Giants as currently constituted.

      4) The downside risk for carrying Ian Miller is a roster spot or $50,000 (the cost to draft him). And if he does not work out, they send him back to SEA and open up the roster spot again. Can the Giants really feel that strongly about the future of Gorkys Hernandez (age 30) and Denard Span (soon to be age 33) to consider this a risk too high?

      I also found this video on Ian Miller, showing a "Day in the Life" for him, from his days at Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I2et83sBx4
      (Note the 2:00 mark - he even has experience playing CF at a field that is near the wind and water).


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  6. Every 3-4 months I go to the 7-11 and spend around 6 bucks on powerball tickets. It doesn't stop me from dreaming even when my odds are a billion to one so I'm not going to stop dreaming about Stanton and Ohtani until I hear otherwise. I really hope Ramos isn't in the trade but at this point I don't really care as long as we get Stanton. Ohtani is a little bit more of a long shot but word is that he was impressed by Posey. Win now and 5 years from now will take care of itself.

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    1. Hey blog,

      I am all for the Staton trade, just keep Ramos out of it, especially with luxury tax, 250 million contract and the 2 opt out clause. We basically competing against ourselves in this staton trade As, for Ohanti, I would love to bring him aboard, but I think he is going to the Mariners. Your thoughts blog.

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    2. The Giants are not competing against themselves. The Cardinals have obviously made a serious offer for Stanton and they have a excellent reputation as an organization and can probably offer him a stronger supporting cast, at least for the first year or two. The only thing they have going against them is location. Then, the Dodgers are lurking out there too. The Giants are not in a position to hold out to keep Ramos if that's who the Marlins are insisting on and there is just no rational reason to allow Ramos to be the guy who kept them from getting Stanton.

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    3. And that's coming from someone who loves Heliot Ramos as a player as much as anyone here. I will be crushed if Ramos goes to the Marlins, but rationally, I can't see making him the sticking point in a trade for Giancarlo Stanton.

      Just close your eyes for a minute and imagine Giancarlo Stanton on the Dodgers or Cardinals instead of the Giants. Would you be OK with that knowing the Giants could have had him if they had just been willing to include Heliot Ramos?

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  7. No Dee Gordon for the Giants, since he’s a Mariner—we’re probably keeping Panik. No Tyler Chatwood, now a Cub, either.

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  8. Funny that Hunter Pence sent Stanton tweets to woo him too join Giants when Pence's poor numbers were bug reason behind woeful season and hard to see Pence being own team beyond 2018. Anyone else think maybe Pence should focus on hitting and catching rather than posting garbage on the internet? See the latest Pence posting to YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuASsZrgr3s. Grow up Hunter !!!

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    1. just leave Hunter Pence alone. He's allowed to have some fun. I am sure he was well aware that there was no bigger threat to his own playing time than Giancarlo Stanton. He was trying to help the team.

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