Scouting the Trade Deadline: Giants Trade Farm for Two Lefties

Welp!  I can't say I saw all of that coming!  With the trade deadline closing in fast the Giants pulled the trigger on 2 more trades which brought them long rumored target, LHP Will Smith, from the Brewers and a more recently rumored target, LHP Matt Moore, from the Tampa Bay Rays.  The cost was, hold your breath here, RHP Phil Bickford and C Andrew Susac to the BrewCrew plus  3B Matt Duffy, SS Lucius Fox and RHP Michael Santos to the Rays.  That seems like a lot to give up, but as I have said all along, the Giants farm system has whole lot more depth than high end talent. You knew that to get anything of value in trade, it was going to take more than just 1 or even 2.

I like how a commenter put it earlier today.  Think of this as a single trade with the Giants acquiring Nunez, Smith and Moore and giving up Mejia, Duffy, Bickford, Susac, Fox and Santos.  We'll break it down from there, but first of all, a huge key to this is that Nunez has 1 more year of control on his contract while Smith and Moore both have 3 with Moore in particular having very team friendly options over the next 3 seasons.  We'll start with the players the Giants acquired:

*Eduardo Nunez IF:  Positives- 1.  Nice combination of hitting for average, power and SB's with a low K rate.  Has a chance to hit .300 with 15/40 HR/SB.  2.  Can play multiple positions.  3.  1 year of contract control after this season.  Negatives- 1.  Is not a plus defender at any 1 position.  2.  Does not walk much.

You could see the writing on the wall for Duffy once the Giants traded for Nunez.  I mean, where else was Nunez going to play if not 3B?  Crawford and Panik were not going anywhere!  Nunez will now get most of his PT at 3B.

*Will Smith LHP:  Positives- 1.  Smith is a rare LHP who can pitch out of the bullpen and go more than 1 IP, and even close if necessary.  2.  His contract is under team control through 2019.  Negatives:  Has struggled in recent appearances although his last 3 apps were some better.

The Giants needed a replacement for the Jeremy Affeldt role.  Josh Osich may be that guy someday, but he's battled inconsistency this year and is currently on the DL with a forearm strain, although he insists he is fine and could pitch now if he had to.  Now Osich can work his way into his MLB role without the pressure of having to replace Affeldt.

*Matt Moore LHP:  Positives:  1.  High ceiling LHP who was once one of the most highly rated pitching prospects in the game.  He has been living up to that over his last 9 starts with a 2.39 ERA.  2.  He has a highly team friendly contract with low cost team options over the next 3 seasons.  Negatives- Has been somewhat inconsistent so far in his career and is in his first full season post TJ surgery.

It's unclear who he will replace in the Giants rotation or if the Giants have something else up their sleeve like a 6 man rotation or of Moore will be a swingman until next season when Peavy will presumably be gone.  I would think he will somehow be in the rotation as he is likely an immediate upgrade on at least 3 of the Giants current SP's, Samardzija, Peavy and Cain.

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Now let's review who the Giants gave up:

*Adalberto Mejia LHP:  Positives- 1. Big lefty with SP potential.  2. Great command from an early age.  3. Took a big step forward in AA this season and earned a promotion to AAA.  Negatives- 1.  Average to above average stuff.  Ceiling likely limited to no more than a #3 SP, more likely a #4 or #5.  2.  Inconsistent after his promo to AAA.

Mejia always seemed like a pitcher who the Giants would eventually trade away.  Just good enough to interest other teams but with limited ceiling.

*Matt Duffy IF:  Positives- 1. Huge fan favorite.  2. Almost fairy-tale ascent to the major leagues.  3.  Willie Mac Award winner just last year.  4. Scrappy hitter with low K rate.  5.  Plus defense at 3B.  Negatives- 1. Offense in 2015 was likely BABIP enhanced and not likely to be sustained.  2.  Currently injured with an Achilles strain.  Had just started rehab games.  3.  Body type may not hold up under the long term grind of MLB.

Yeah this one hurt a lot, but you could kind of sense it coming, especially after the Nunez trade.  Arroyo is the Giants 3B of the future and Nunez is an immediate upgrade on Duffy until Arroyo arrives.

*Phil Bickford RHP:  Positives- 1. Highest rated Giants prospect in some midseason rankings(though not mine).  2. Dominant numbers at 2 levels in his first full pro season.  3. Best FB in the system by some rankings, though not the highest velocity.  Negatives- 1.  Velocity reportedly in the low 90's and stuff did not impress in his Futures Game appearance.  2. Some debate among analysts about whether he projects as a SP or RP.  3.  Some thought that his delivery may make him injury prone.

As the Trade Deadline closed in, you started seeing Bickford's name more and more as a prospect the Giants would be willing to trade.  Is this a vote of confidence in Beede or did other teams want Bickford more than Beede?

*Andrew Susac C:  Positives- 1.  Catcher with MLB experience.  2.  Seemed to have regained his health and was a hot hitter in Sacramento.  3. Presence in Sacramento gave the Giants tremendous depth at the Catcher position.  Negatives:  1.  Long history of injuries.  2.  Defense and game management slow to develop and may never be plus.

Once Susac got healthy and started hitting in Sacramento, he became an obvious trade target with Trevor Brown firmly ensconced in the backup catcher role in SF.  Trading Susac, though, creates a significant depth issue at catcher.  Giants better hope both Posey and Brown stay healthy.

*Lucius Fox SS:  Positives- 1.  As high a ceiling as any prospect in the Giants system.  2.  5-tool player.  3.  Flashes of brilliance in Low A ball, an aggressive placement for his age and experience. Negatives-  1.  Very young and many years of development away from the major leagues.  2. Has yet to prove he can consistently hit pro pitching.

This was the biggest surprise to me.  I never ever would have expected the Giants to trade Fox after handcuffing their next 2 years worth of international signings by exceeding their bonus pool to sign him.  Guess I should have known though.  Giants have never let things like that stand in the way of a deadline trade.

*Michael Santos RHP:  Positives- High ceiling pitching prospect.  Negatives- 1. Injured most of this year.  2. Disappointing performance in his few appearances this year.

Guys like Santos are intriguing because of their ceiling, but almost never make it all the way to the majors.

In summary, I like these deals for the following reasons:

1.  The 3 acquisitions fill 3 immediate needs that had to be filled for the Giants to be serious contenders down the stretch.

2.  All 3 acquisitions address future needs and hedge against a very weak FA class this upcoming offseason.  No 2 month rentals here.

3.  The Giants have tremendous depth in their farm system. None of the traded players are a separate level of prospect from multiple prospects they have left.  Better yet, they hung onto he top 2 prospects on my list, Arroyo and Beede as well as Mac Williamson.