Sunday, August 14, 2016

Down on the Farm: MLB Midseason Top 30 Giants Prospects

MLB has put out their Midseason Top 30 Prospect lists which account for the 2016 draft and trading deadline transactions.  As I always say, take these lists with a grain of salt as it is much more important to be aware of the prospects in the system.  I'll provide some commentary, but again, don't get too hung up on theirs or my opinion.  There is a reason why they play the games!

1.  Christian Arroyo IF- My pre-season #1 Giants prospect and remains there now.  While some are disappointed in his AA season, I think it's been terrific given his age and the environment he's playing in.

2. Tyler Beede RHP- My #2 pre-season and remains there.  Reportedly throwing a lot harder this year but the control issues have resurfaced from time-to-time.  I do think that between Bickford and Beede, the Giants kept the right guy.

3.  Chris Shaw 1B- Shaw pounded the Cal League in his first full season but then struggled after a promo to AA.  He's strictly a 1B, which limits his value.  There are several other Giants prospects I might have ranked higher even though I still believe in the bat.

4.  Bryan Reynolds CF- Giants highest 2016 draft pick in round 2.  Has performed as well as you could expect for a high college draft pick in Short Season ball.  The debate in my mind is between him, Duggar and Andrew Suarez for the #3 slot above.

5. Sam Coonrod RHP- has had good results as a starter for both San Jose and AA Richmond.  Velocity reportedly still there.  You have to wonder about the low K rate.  Keith Law thinks he's a reliever due to his high effort deliver and relative lack of secondary stuff.  Can't completely disagree.

6.  Aramis Garcia C- This has been pretty much a lost season for Garcia after taking a pitch to the face and missing most of the season.  I'm thinking we may see him in the AFL to get him more AB's.

7.  Joan Gregorio RHP- Love his ceiling but is he ever going to consistently command the strike zone? I guess I see him as a future bullpen arm, not that there is anything wrong with that.

8.  Andrew Suarez LHP- Initially struggled after a promo to AA but has ripped off a string of QS's over the last couple of months.  Giants reportedly love his ability to command 4 good pitches.  I would probably rank him a bit higher than #8, 4 or 5 or maybe even #3!

9.  Jordan Johnson RHP- nice looking stuff, but hasn't really translated into results on the field.  Peripheral stats consistently better than ERA.  I might put him a bit lower than #9.

10.  Steven Duggar OF- Duggar has had a tremendous season at 2 levels and is currently hitting above .300 for AA Richmond.  He's got size and athleticism on his side and can play all 3 OF positions with enough speed to cover CF and an arm to play RF.  I would rank him ahead of Shaw due to athleticism and position and have him challenging Reynolds for the #3 ranking.

11.  Steven Okert LHP- I have no idea why Okert would rank in the top 30 at all let alone #11.  Lefty reliever at best who has shown no sign that he's close to ready to get MLB hitters out.

12.  Rodolfo Martinez RHP- Reliever with a big fastball.  Martinez dominated the Cal League but has struggled mightily since his promo to AA.  I guess I'm OK with him this high on the strength of his velocity alone.

13.  CJ Hinojosa SS- Was sensational in San Jose in the first half.  Got off to a great start after a promo to AA, but has tailed off lately.

14.  Clayton Blackburn RHP- Blackburn is starting to become a bit of an enigma.  Looked ready to take the next step to the majors at the end of last season but has been inconsistent this year.  May be a AAAA pitcher.

15. Jalen Miller 2B- Has kept his head above water as a young player in the SAL.  Has shown flashes of power.  Has stayed at 2B even after Lucius Fox got traded.

16. Ray Black RHP- Still brings the triple digit heat, but can't seem to stay healthy or consistently keep his walk rate down.  Not sure the velocity alone gets him this high.

17.  Dylan Davis OF- Bat has really come alive this year and the peripherals are steadily improving too.  I could see him having a Mark Trumbo/Mike Napoli type of career as a low-average power hitter.

18.  Chase Johnson RHP- stock has to be way down after getting bounced from the Richmond rotation.  Looks like he's surfacing as the closer there and maybe that justifies this ranking?

19.  Heath Quinn OF- Giants got at least 2'nd round value when they drafted Quinn in the 3'rd round.  He off to a fantastic start to his pro career in S-K which historically means squat.  His peripherals are better than Reynolds though.  Unlike Reynolds, he's strictly a corner OF.

20. Matt Krook LHP- Krook was a pre-season first round talent who had a rough junior season for Oregon.  The struggles have continued in his pro debut.  Not sure he has shown enough to rank him this high.

21.  Hunter Cole OF- Got off to a slow start this year in AA but has picked it up in the last 2 months.

22.  Austin Slater OF- hard to separate him from Cole.  Had a great first half in AA but struggled with the transition to AAA.  Has hit better of late. He has also burnished his defensive reputation by playing some CF.

23.  Ty Blach LHP- Blach might be the hottest pitcher in the organization at this point with a string of QS's with several dominant starts thrown in for Sacramento.  The PCL is a brutal league to pitch in and Blach has thrived over the past 2 months.  I think I would rank him higher than this and feel he deserves a shot at pitching in the majors somewhere.

24.  Reyes Maronta RHP- Reliever.  Throws high 90's.  Could be a future setup man.

25. Kyle Crick RHP- Has been inconsistent this season which is better than being consistently bad.  Baby steps!  Still has that high ceiling if he can ever harness it.

26.  Chris Stratton RHP- Looked pretty good in a few scattered innings during a callup to SF.  Still inconsistent as a starter in the minors.

27.  Cory Tayler RHP- Breakout season for Augusta.  Recent promotion to AA.  Too early to judge him there.

28.  Ian Gardeck RHP- Hard thrower but fringy relief prospect before TJ surgery.   I would not rank him in the top 30 myself.

29.  Ronnie Jebavy OF- got off to a slow start in San Jose but has picked it up in the second half.  If he ever makes the most of his tools, he is a potential 15-20 guy.

30.  Gio Brusa OF- Senior draftee out of Pacific.  Grew up a Giants fan.  He's got size and athleticism but a checkered college career.  We'll have to wait until next year, presumably in San Jose to get a good  read on him.  I do think he could be a seriously undervalued draft pick from 2016.

Here are some names I would consider for my top 30 that did not make this list:  Matt Gage LHP AA, Jonah Arenado 1B High A, Ryder Jones 3B/1B AA, Sandro Fabian OF Rookie AZL, Dan Slania RHP High A(has also pitched successfully in AA and AAA this year).


  1. Just wondering, why the hate for Okert? You could make a more compelling arguement that he should be ahead of Jordan Johnson. I know Okert's season isn't going so good right now, he's been up and down all year. But he's got great potential I believe to be a Affeldt like reliever. Osich was, what, 27 when he came up last year and made a short impact? 28 this year? Okert is young, big left, strike-out stuff, multiple innings, high draft pick, great arm. Has allowed a lot of hits this year but not a ton of walks. Just saying, I think he could contribute to our pen at some point in the future. Still only 25. Definitely over-ranked but I think he's a little closer to getting MLB hitters out than you think. Time will tell tough.

    1. Well, I think I pretty much said I thought Jordan Johnson was ranked too high, so I'm not sure why you are calling me out on him. I wonder what you can point to in Okert's performance this year or his stuff that gives you any hope that he will ever be a MLB caliber reliever? A great arm? I guess if you consider low 90's to be great, then yeah, he has a great arm but he has significant command issues with all of his pitches which leaves him eminently hittable w when he is forced to put it over the plate.

    2. Okert's overall K/BB is very good and is much better than his ERA would indicate. On the other hand, he has an ERA of over 9 over his last 10 appearances.

    3. Anyway, I had him ranked #48 in my pre-season top 50 and that's probably right about where I'd put him now too.