Buster Posey's first hit of the spring cleared the fence in RF to give the Giants a tie with the Indians that held up through 10 innings. They don't play open ended spring games. Key Lines:
Gregor Blanco- 1 for 3, BB. BA= .500. Blanco worked his magic on the basepaths again as he drew a walk, went from first to third on a hit-and-run grounder to 1B then scored on a groundout. Hey, it was half the Giants run total in the game!
Buster Posey- 1 for 4, HR(1). BA= .111. Great to see Buster go deep. He got 4 AB's today as the DH.
Emmanuel Burriss- 1 for 3, SB(3). BA= .386. Burriss continues to play his version of small ball. This time it did not produce any runs.
Matt Cain- 3.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 2.08. Some discouraging news on the contract front, but there's still time. Sometimes the two sides just need to get away from each other for a day or two to think things through. Gotta say I have mixed feelings for any contract for more than 3 years for any pitcher, but I know the market dictates you have to do it to lock up an ace or near ace.
Brian Wilson- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.00. Wilson's FB was going 96 on the radar guns as per Alex Pavlovic. 14 pitches this time. That's a far cry from the 20-25 pitch innings we've become accustomed to from BWillie.
Clay Hensley- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 3.00. Hensley is a lock for the last bullpen slot IMO.
Dan Otero- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.25. From what I saw on Sunday, Otero doesn't have great velocity, but he hits his spots well and can keep hitters off balance with a nice changeup.
Jean Machi- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 2.25. I don't know much about Machi, but he's put the ball on the ground and struck out a batter an inning, although 3 of his 4 K's occured today.
Scott Barnes(Indians)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 0.00. Dang, Scotty coming back to haunt us! He's appeared in 3 games this spring with 1 BB, and 6 K's in 7 IP.
The Giants travel to Peoria for a night game tomorrow with Barry Zito getting his 3'rd start of the spring. I saw Zito doing some running on the practice field beyond RF of Scottdale stadium. I have to say he is quite a sight to see sprinting from corner to corner on the warning track. My daughter commented that he needs to be working hard. I said he needs to be trying to make his arm stronger! All in jest, of course. It looked like those sprints weren't any fun.
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March 15th is my personal Matt Cain freakout deadline. I'll try to keep it cool but this is dragging on...
ReplyDeleteIf House can get Zito to let everything else go and just pitch maybe we'll be OK. Don't need the old old Zito, just need league average. Throw his pitches, hopefully keep it in the park, give us 2 times through the lineup without getting shelled.
We need a healthy Wilson. That's good stuff.
I want to keep Matt Cain forever as much as anybody. Heck, my family has a baseball he signed for us when he was pitching for San Jose. We're pretty much the founding members of his fanclub! If he's going to insist on getting full FA value a year early, or something like an 8 year contract, well, I just don't think it's necessarily a good thing for any team to sink two huge long term contrects into 2 pitchers no matter how good they are. Of all the $100 M contracts given to pitchers, CC Sabathia's is the only one to work out and he's still working on his!
DeleteNo player is indispensable. Teams that start thinking they have to keep popular players forever start to stagnate. In retrospect, the Giants waited too long to start the Post-Bonds era. Part of maintaining a winning team is being willing to make tough decisions and cut loose players who are too expensive or too risky.
If the Giants can sign Cain to a reaasonable 4 or at most 5 year contract, that's terrific. I will be a happy guy. If he's insisting on more than that, I'll be disappointed as anybody, but they should not do it. There are other good ways to allocate the money.
The 100MM barrier may well be the debate. Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee. Here are their estimated ages when they signed their deals: Brown 34, Hampton 28, Zito 29, Santana 29, Sabathia 28, Lee 32. Cain will start the new contract in his year 28. Of these contracts, Brown and Zito were thought of as reaches, Brown due to age and we know all about Barry. Hampton was a bust. Santana has had injury concerns, he put up 1 spectacular year and 2 solid ones before the last year being lost to injury. The book is out on him too. Cliff Lee signed for more money less years, had a solid first year. Sabathia is a rock and has re-upped. People forget Brown in his first 2 years was pretty damn good before injuries and ineffectiveness.
DeleteNo player is indispensable for sure. But comparing Cain to Bonds isn't a good example. Cain is in his prime - 27 years old until the end of the season, he's a main cog to the team, but not the headline. You lose out on him, your rotation goes south big time. It is absolutely worth risking 6/120MM to cover his 28-29-30-31-32-33 years. Tom Seaver. Nolan Ryan. Plenty of exceptional pitchers go for a long time. There is just as much chance Cain ends up on that side as the ineffective or injured side.
I like to play armchair GM as much as the next guy, I'd say you have to acknowledge the market for top of the rotation arms. Its great to say I'd only offer a pitcher a 4=5 year contract, you won't hold onto any top of the rotation arms that way, or recruit any from other teams. There is too much demand. The Giants are going to have to reach a little. As a fan, I'm going to say "So what". If you play it safe with a 4-5 year deal under 20MM, he'll go to the open market.
Now you get above 6/120 and it gets pretty dicey. But his age, his track record, his physique capped off with his home grown status and the fact he's already accepted hometown discounts and this all boils down to: pay the man his money. Its a good gamble, as good a gamble as you're going to get with a pitcher.
If Cain walks with that offer, they did their best. If they are messing around trying to get a CJ Wilson/Jerod Weaver deal out of the guy, then I'll be pissed as hell. Again, don't know what's going on. But I maintain you only have a shot or two at exceptional guys, and I'd put Cain in that category. As a kicker, I don't trust the Giants to allocate the money in a good way, and I see very few choices for that allocation coming down the pipe, except for massively overpaying for Lincecum as a overcompensation for losing Cain and realizing the rotation will crumble. That could be a disaster. The linchpin to building the team is Cain. You lock him up, then MadBum, then you worry about Timmy, and you have insurance.
Face it, the Giants are not a pitching factory team. They may be headed that way, but they don't have steaks in the freezer. Cain is in a stronger position than the Giants, his only concession should be a few million for the sixth year and flexibility on the structure of the money, in exchange for the risk of injury for this year.
I don't necessarily agree that the rotation goes south if Cain walks and I think 6/120 is too much for too long. He has a lot of mileage on that arm and his elbow is not in perfect condition.
DeleteI don't think you can be presumptuous about replacing him, but at some point the money can be better spent elsewhere.
Drb or anyone following the draft -I've been enjoying reading the MLB Draft Guide website and checking out the mock drafts, are you optimistic like I am that good pitching prospects should be available when the Giants select 20th in the 1st round? If they pick a pitcher, would you be happy if they pick a high school pitcher like Matt Smoral, Hunter Virant, Lucas Sims possibly being available or a college pitcher like Marcus Stroman or Brian Johnson..The nice thing about a college pitcher is they tend to move up quicker.. We get to see Kyle Zimmer pitch this weekend here in Hawaii, but he figures to be gone by the time the Giants pick..
ReplyDeleteLG
Yup, still following the draft. Yes, I am very optimistic about the Giants getting a good player at #20 and there should be some good pitchers left. I think they'll take Smoral if he's still on the board. I'm with Shankbone on Ty Hensley. He's just too much the spittin' image of Cainer, Wheeler, Kyle Crick, etc. He'd be my #2 after Smoral. Stroman is a possibility too. I don't see them taking a polished soft tosser like Johnson, though. Let us know what you think of Zimm. From his videos, it looks like he has a high risk delivery, sudden acceleration and deceleration.
DeleteI'm totally optimistic we'll get a nice pitcher. The GA prep guys stand out to me - Duane Underwood and Luke Sims, also Clate Schmidt. I agree with DrB about Johnson. Stroman if he can keep getting stretched out to be a starter would be a great pick, although he's getting a lot of hype like Zimmer. In addition to Johnson, I think Chris Beck would not be a good pick and I see both those guys dropping in the draft to be available for us at 20. Stanford's lefty Mooneyham might creep up on some folks after being injured last year. Michael Wacha might drop, he's a big innings eater from Texas A&M.
DeleteDrB's sleeper MacGruder's running mate Barrett Barnes is a college bat to look at. He's a CF who has all the tools except the arm, which is average. He might make noise, and be a viable alternative to Naquin/Jankowski. Piscotty/Shaffer are the 2 other safe college bats the Giants might look at, currently playing 3B/1B. Kenny Diekroeger has swing issues, if he drops to the 2nd round he could be worth a look. I bet Trey Williams is gone and I can't see the Giants picking a HS player with their 1st rounder but John Klima has a nice review of him, plus power guy.
Just checked the updated Stanford stats:
ReplyDeleteAppel is 3.19 ERA/31 IP/40K/10BB/ .157 BAA
Mooneyham is 2.33 ERA/27 IP/37K/13BB/ .167 BAA
Piscotty is at 348/419/621, 3 HR, 23RBI, 5 2B, 2 3B
Diekroeger is at 310/406/414, 6 2B, 11 RBI 1/3 SBs - Stanford doesn't run much.
Super sneaky sleeper Jake Stewart: 404/467/692, 6 2Bs, 3 HRs, 11 RBI 3/3 SBs
He leads the team in all slash lines for regular players. He's been nicked up for 3 games.
Worth noting that Piscotty has 6 errors and a Fielding Percentage of .769. Early, but not good.
DrB, first off, as a newbie to the blog, I must say, well done. As a fellow baseball head, I thoroughly enjoy reading this, and think your analysis is spot on. I'm excited to watch the Giants this season as well as follow the blog. Two quick questions; 1. Do you know where I can get one of those fake B Willie beards? and 2. Would you mind if Kay rooted for the Red Sox only if NOT (potentially) playing the Giants?
ReplyDeleteHey, I've heard about you! There are only two teams that are completely off limits for a member of my family to root for at times: Dodgers and Yankees. I'm sure that second one is quite alright with you. LOL!
DeleteI'm sure you can get Fear the Beards from the Giants Dugout Store. Next time I see Kay, we'll look it up and get you one. How's that?
That's like music to my ears. When Kay and I bash the Yanks (which happens quite often), now I can see where it comes from!
DeleteTell you what- if you do that, I promise to wear it "When the Giants come to town", as I've already been marking some games on the schedule to check out. Next time you are in the area, let's all grab a bite and talk/watch some baseball.
Sounds good. Thanks for reading and commenting
DeleteBTW, do you think maybe the Red Sox got a little too much like the Yankees last year and paid a price?
DeleteI think the Sox got what was coming to them, so I have no sympathy. Hopefully it was a wake up call and Bobby V can bring that dirt dog mentality back to the team. He already banned alcohol in the clubhouse, hopefully fried chicken and pizza are next.
DeleteCrazy how Barnes is starting to sneak up again on prospect radars. He was listed as the 9th best prospect in the Indians system according to BA's Handbook (though the Indians system is very weak this year with the graduations of Kipnis and Chisenhall and the loss of Pomeranz). As much fuss as we Giants fans made about the Alderson-Sanchez trade, it is looking like the Barnes-Garko one hurt the Giants a lot more. Alderson has plummeted and Sanchez played a key role for the Giants in the 2010 title run. As for Garko, he was ineffective for half a season, left and now Barnes is producing in the Minors and could have some value at the Big League roster this season.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I think Barnes wouldn't have as much value if he was still in the Giants system, but at the same time, you wished the Giants got a little more out of the trade than Garko and his 73 wRC+.
Garko was a guy I thought the Giants should target at the trade deadline that year. He just dropped off the face of the earth! Between him and Hillenbrand, how can guys just disappear overnight? It wasn't like they had small-sample-size-itis and then rebounded somewhere else. They were both doing reasonably well with their former teams, got traded to the Giants and were just......done!!! Howtheheck does that happen?
DeleteGotta wonder if they were being helped by, ahem, something in the water?
Here is exactly what BA noted: "Many scouts see him as a reliever, but he could end up a #4 or #5 starter." Nothing to really cry over, I think, and if this helps, ZIPS projects a 5.60 ERA for 2012, which is around what you can hope for out of a back of rotation, a 5-ish ERA.
DeleteGarko got basically 2 months, not even half a season. I would not have done the trade, not because I liked Barnes that much, but rather that I like Ishikawa that much. After struggling, Bochy said on May 10 that they would start skipping starts, and at that point he put his fate in God's hands and from then until he stopped getting regular starts, last on July 26th, he hit .307/.350/.487/.837 with 7 HR in 150 AB. He didn't hit as well the rest of the season, but I don't blame him totally for that, it is hard for any player to hit off the bench. let alone a rookie.
That said, I liked Garko before that, and I liked the trade (except for the benching of Ishikawa). AT&T is a tough park for some hitters, and maybe it spooked both Hillenbrand (another trade I liked) and Garko coming over. Maybe it was the water, maybe it was the park, but I saw the complaints and basically if either hitter hit what he hit in his career up to then, the Giants would have been happy, but they both just tanked and never recovered. Those fans were expecting miracles, but just average production from either would have served the Giants well, and neither did.