Great article in Beyond the Boxscore about quantifying the effectiveness of managers and how you differentiate their ability to manage from the talent of the players on their team. Our very own Bruce Bochy comes out looking very good.
Using Wins Above Expectancy(Pythagorean), Boch ranks as the 19'th best manager Of ALL TIME! You know how I know this is a good measure? Tommy Lasorda comes out as the 11'th WORST! LOL!
Using WAR as the measurement, Boch does even better: #4 ALL TIME!
Yeah, I know it isn't proof and the naysayers will say it's all fuzzy math, they know what the see, but it seems maybe Bochy has taken a whole lot of very unfair criticism.
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Really interested to see Bochy manage this team; younger, more speed, more defense. I want to see him use the youth/speed aggressively to manufacture runs. Give your pitchers a 1-2 run lead early on. Spring, mostly so far so good. Key checkpoints:
ReplyDeleteHuff's leash length.
Belt's whereabouts/walkabout.
Blanco's playing time/utilization.
Zito's immanent implosion.
(sp) Zito's imminent implosion
DeleteThat should be interesting alright. Bochy has always been more of a sabermetrically correct manager eschewing sac bunts and SB's....the whole notion of "manufacturing runs," which if you believe in the stats, the effort to "manufacture" runs actually prevents runs. On the other hand, Boch has shown interest in a "designated runner" type approach at times with Darren Ford and Burriss, so he may be more open to new ideas than we think.
DeleteDesignated runner - there is a time and place when 1 run becomes nearly as valuable as 8, and that is when manufacturing a run (by sacrificing and risking outs) makes sense. The rest of the time, the best thing a runner or a hitter can do is not make an out.
DeleteI wonder if this is an effect of Boch's propensity for good bullpens. But then Alou is ranked about the same. - Bochy's got more years as manager than just about anyone else active at this point, so I doubt we are just looking at static.
ReplyDeleteBut the figure takes the runs scored/allowed, and therefore lineups as given. If we measured what Belt (or Bowker, or I don't know Kouzmanoff?) could have done in place of the veteran blocker, maybe the picture would look different.
The methodology would tend to play into the hands of teams with good bullpens and good execution of the "little things", while not taking into account missed prospect opportunities. AS OGC noted in the comments "Another flaw with this system, which is major for your purposes, is that perhaps the manager is doing something that helps the team score more runs and/or prevent more runs allowed. That is not measured at all by the Pythaorean methodology". It may measure in-game tactics, but doesn't capture strategic things like coaching, training, or promotions/demotions/recruiting.
I"ll have to read OGC's comments. He has researched Bochy's record in 1 run games, the games where manager decision making are most likely to make a difference and Bochy's record is actually quite phenomenal, and yes, I think his ability to put together and manage a bullpen have a lot to do with it.
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