The Savvy Vets fantasy baseball team participated in a mock auction draft today just to find out how it works and get a feels for the dynamics of it. It was a 10 team mock draft with 23 roster spots and a budget of $260. Here are the results with some commentary to follow:
C Brian McCann $2
1B Pablo Sandoval $25
2B Dustin Ackley $12
3B Brett Lawrie $20
SS Jimmy Rollins $5
OF Ryan Braun $50
OF Desmond Jennings $20
OF Michael Morse $12
UT Eric Hosmer $5
UT Drew Stubbs $5
SP Madison Bumgarner $5
SP Yu Darvish $5
RP Craig Kimbrel $20
RP John Axford $2
P Matt Moore $2
P Heath Bell $1
P Brandon Beachy $5
P Brian Wilson $1
BN Jordan Zimmerman $1
BN Brandon Morrow $2
BN Cory Luebke $1
BN Ubaldo Jimenez $1
BN Ervin Santana $2
Total Cost $204
Wow! These guys spent money like drunken sailors early in the draft. I never dreamed that I wouldn't be able to give money away at the end, although it was nice to be in complete control of the last third of the draft.
I initially identified 7 players I was willing to spend as much as $50+ on, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, but I was only willing to spend that much on one player. If I landed one, great. If not, well, there were 7 teams with $50+ less to spend later in the draft. I ended up with Braun out of that little plan.
My next tier was Sandoval and Lawrie. I was torn between which one to target for my 3B, but then decided I could go after both and one could be a utility guy. I forgot that Pablo has 1B eligibility. I had figured I might have to go as high as $30 apiece on them, so I waited, and waited, and waited some more. After landing both for a total of $45, I knew I was in good shape the rest of the draft.
In retrospect, I think I bid up Ackley from $9 to $12 too soon, but I like Ackley and $12 is not an unreasonable price for him. His name came up quite early in the draft, so I didn't know everybody else was going to run out of money so soon. I was not going to go higher than $15 for him.
I got into a mini bidding war for Jennings, but at that point I had money to burn. I wasn't going to go higher than $20 though. Turned out it was enough. I needed the steals and his upside is huge.
It looked like I had a choice between Rollins and Gordon at SS. I was tempted by Gordon but felt like I had enough steals already and wanted a more balanced hitter so took Rollins for $5 which is way less than I would have predicted he would cost. My fallback options were Aviles, Scutaro and Alcides Escobar, so I felt pretty good about Rollins.
Beyond Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli, most managers waited until the late rounds after they were out of money to draft a catcher. McCann for $2 is a ridiculous bargain, IMO. I was willing to pay that much for Ryan Doumit!
I figure I got about 15/15 with a good BA from Hosmer and 15/30 with not such a good BA from Stubbs to fill in my utility positions.
In retrospect, I probably waited too long to start drafting pitchers. I started out planning to follow my Starting Pitching on a Budget blueprint and target Brandon Beachy as my first pick. Had 3 pitchers, MadBum, Darvish and Moore penciled in off the to side to target earlier if the draft was going well and I wanted to have money to spend on closers. Well, as it turned out, the draft was going TOO well, so I jumped in by outbidding someone for Kimbrel and jumped into the SP fray at MadBum. Kimbrel was the only pitcher I spent more than $5 on and MadBum and Beachy were the only ones I spend more than $2 on. Crazy! In retrospect, I could have targeted one of several top tier SP's such as Kershaw, Halladay or CC and still had enough to get Kimbrel, MadBum etc.
Much as I love Timmy and Matt Cain. They went for $30+ and $23 respectively. I consider MadBum to be every bit as good and I got him for $5!
Some things to remember:
1. My league has 26 man rosters with the same budget of $260, so I have 3 more slots to fill.
2. The guys in my league are probably a lot smarter and craftier than the guys in this mock draft.
3. Guys are more likely to break their bank of a favorite player in a mock draft that has no consequences than a real one they have to live with for a full season.
What do you think of my mock draft? What suggestions do you have for adjustments in strategy?
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Great great draft. That two dollar McCann is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it looks like you got an insane rotation for completely peanuts. One dollar Luebke and 5 dollar Beachy? Two dollars for Matt Moore? That's insane.
The only part I don't really love is Braun for 50 and Kimbrel for 20. I'd have re-allocated your money to a more barren position like SS (Tulo). W/r/t closers, I'd grab a less premium closer (like Farnsworth or Street) and stock-up on 8th innings guys to that drill down your ERA, come cheap, and have a chance at taking the closer spots for teams with a weak incumbent. Word's probably out on Kenley Jansen, but Pestano, Adams, and (kinda) Perkins fit the profile. Grabbing a Venters or a Romo to just help your Ks and ERA on non-starting days is also fun too.
Thanks for the feedback. I think Tulo went for >$50 and I had arbitrarily determined I was not going above $50 for one of the Gang of 7. In retrospect, I could have bid up Tulo up to at least $60. I would have preferred Kemp to Braun too. He went for $56.
DeleteAgain, I realized too late I could pick up almost any closer for $1 at the end of the draft. Had I caught on to that sooner, I never would have big $20 for Kimbrel. I can almost guarantee that closers will be higher priced in my real league draft.
Oh yeah, forgot to mention I am not at all enamored with either Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes, so it's Tulo or bust at SS for me.
DeleteOh yeah, there are worse things than having the 4 of the 5 premium closers in a 10 team league. Worst case scenario, you can trade one of them for a need elsewhere.
DeleteAt the beginning always nominate good but not great players your not sold on because people are jumpy in the beginning and will overbid for players they sometimes don't want or won't end up needing
ReplyDeleteYup! For me, that would be guys like Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, Jose Reyes, Ellsbury and especially Josh Hamilton.
DeleteNo point in nominating #5 starters or $1 value guys early. That doesn't help you. The trick is to nominate players you think will be in high demand, but who you don't want.
Of course, in a good league, you can expect other managers to be doing the same thing, so it's really important to have a clear idea of what you think every player is worth and what your spending limit on that player, or whether you want that player at any price.
what i did and will continue to do is not go for pujols at $50 but go for some 2nd tier 1st basemen like a adrain gonzalez who will go in $30-40 range because you get almost equal production while saving money for someone else who you may need to overspend based on position
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