Fantasy Focus: Melky Cabrera Is Undervalued!

I am currently obsessed with fantasy baseball player auction values and have been poring over lists in preparation for my upcoming fantasy draft. One of the first things that jumped out at me was how undervalued Melky Cabrera seems to be. Here's an average price list with fantasy stat lines from 3 players from last year(Yahoo):

Andrew McCutchen $26.7 BA= .259, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 23 SB

Alex Gordon $16.8 BA= .303, 101 R, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 17 SB

Melky Cabrera $4.6 BA= .305, 102 R, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 20 SB.

Not a whole lot of difference, huh?

Of course, values are based more on what drafters think the player will do THIS year than on their stats last year, on the other hand, we really have no way of predicting the future in baseball other than to look at stats from the past.

McCutchen is a 5 tool stud who is expected to go all Matt Kemp any season now. On the other hand, in his first 3 seasons, his numbers have been remarkably consistent with no trend toward said breakout. His BA was down significantly and a positive regression is reasonable to expect which could boost his other numbers. Is that worth $22 more than Melky?

Alex Gordon has underachieved for a long time and last year was something of a breakout. He's always seemed like such a sure thing that it's easy to believe this was a true breakout and he will only get better, or at least not regress. Are you sure enough of that to pay $12 more than you would for Melky?

With Melky, everyone is focused on his squirrely past and an unsustainable BABIP. There is, however, another side to the story, that needs to be considered. In his first few seasons, Melky was in notoriously bad condition and possibly overly involved with alcohol. After hitting rock bottom with Atlanta in 2010, he found the Workout religion and got himself into shape. KC took a chance on him because, well, KC didn't have many options themselves and they got themselves a bargain. From all reports and my own observations this last weekend, Melky is, if anything, in even better shape than last year. He also has a no-nonsense work ethic bordering on workaholism. Like "Cutch", he's always had the tools and he's just entering what are usually the peak years of a player's career. You might worry about the ballpark, but KC is no picnic for hitters either.

You might rank McCutchen and Gordon a bit higher in a snake draft, but when you factor in auction prices, I'm passing on both and targeting Melky, even if I have to bid him up to $7 or $8, he's still a bargain in comparison. Heck, I'd even go to $10 which is right where an average player should cost with a $260 budget for a roster of 26 players.

BTW, Angel Pagan at $1.3 is going to be a bargain for somebody too.