Hey team!
I have completed a list of players to consider for DrB's 2012 Giants Top 50 Prospects list. Guys, there's 90 players on the list! I ovviously need to pare that down a lot. Out of those 90, I have identifed 40 who I think are definite keepers for the final list. That leaves 50 players vying for the last 10 spots. Just for fun, I'm going to list those 50 players here and ask you to rank your top 20, in order if possible. I will then compile a new list using those opinions to narrow it down to the final 10 and then rank those last 10. Here goes(no particular order):
Johnny Monell, C, AA
Ryan Cavan, 2B, High A
Justin Fitzgerald, RHP, AA
Stephen Edelfsen, RHP, AAA
Chris Heston, RHP, High A
Stephen Harrold, RHP, High A
Kelvin Marte, LHP, High A
Ydwin Villegas, SS, Low A
Chris Lofton, OF, Low A
Carlos Willoughby, 2B, Low A
Edward Concepcion, RHP, Low A
Gaspar Santiago, LHP, Low A
Brett Krill, OF, Short Season
Ben Thomas, 1B, Short Season
Joe Staley, C, Short Season
Mike Murray, C, Short Season
Cameron Lamb, RHP, Short Season
Lorenzo Mendoza, RHP, Short Season
Reiner Roibal, RHP, Short Season
Brandon Allen, RHP, Short Season
Matt Graham, RHP, Short Season
Garrett Buechele, 3B, Short Season
Leonardo Ochoa, OF, Short Season
Cody Hall, RHP, Short Season
Chris Gloor, LHP, Short Season
Jack Snodgrass, LHP, Short Season
Stephen Shakleford, RHP, Short Season
Keith Bilodeau, RHP, Short Season
Mike Merganthaler, OF, Short Season
Kelby Tomlinson, SS, Rookie
Eric Sim, C, Rookie
Christian Otero, SS, DNP
Elliott Blair, OF, Rookie
Jose Cuevas, 3B, Rookie
Christian Paulino, 3B/2B, Rookie
Jean Delgado, SS, Rookie
Christian Diaz, OF, Rookie
Demondre Arnold, RHP, Rookie
Edwin Escobar, LHP, Rookie
Miguel Ferrer, RHP, Rookie
Randy Ortiz, 2B, DSL
Carlos Cartegena, OF, DSL
Marvin Barrios, RHP, DSL
Ray Black, RHP, DNP
Bryce Bandilla, LHP, DNP
Dan Burkhart, C, Short Season
OK, That's only 46. my numbers are messed up somewhere. Go ahead and list your top 20 out of the above list.
Thanks for the help, everybody!
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Don't really know most of them. Names that stand out to me include: Stephen Edlefsen (slider), Stephen Harrold, Kelvin Marte, Edward Concepcion, Matt Graham, Garrett Buechele, Bryce Bandilla, Justin Fitzgerald, Ryan Cavan, Johnny Monnell, Chris Helton, Ydwin Villegas, Chris Lofton, Brett Krill. I'll try to take a look at stats later when I have time, but these were top of mind for me.
ReplyDeleteEdlefsen, RHP
ReplyDeleteTomlinson, SS
Bandilla, LHP
Snodgrass, LHP
Black, RHP
Monell, C
Cavan, 2B
Buechele, 3B
Delgado, SS
Diaz, OF
Merganthaler, OF
Otero, SS
Marte, LHP
Willoughby, 2B
Santiago, LHP
Krill, OF
Fitzgerald, RHP
Graham, RHP
Lofton, OF
Paulino 3B/2B
I'm sure I missed a couple here and there. Edlefson was a mixed bag but has to get the nod for getting to the show. Lefties and SS stand out to me this early in their career due to position scarcity. Snodgrass... 27th pick... Not bad in the Sally. Just sayin'. Could this be another Romo/Sanchez?
I noticed you didn't include Waldyvan Estrada, are you that high on him? Also missing is Travarious Relaford. I could see him being your 38/40 pick.
I sort of bunched em in 5s. First 5 were guys I thought highly of, 2nd 5 the PR academy guys and Cavan/Monell. Third 5s sleepers and 4th 5s throw-ins. I most likely missed a couple good RHPs because of overvaluing LHP.
I don't know if I can name 20, so I'll just list the guys who look a little better.
ReplyDeleteEdlefsen (close to the bigs)
Fitzgerald (will be a starter at AAA, can always go back to relieving)
Heston (finished strong so stuff might make it at higher levels)
Roibal (sort of a name signing)
Tomlinson (older for Azl but still a SS)
Monell (probably a AAAA guy but that warrants top 50)
Cavan (hoped for more in SJ but still walking and getting xbh)
Mendoza (young)
Marte (lefty and still a starter)
Delgado (18, higher draft pick, showed some patience)
Bandilla (higher draft pick)
Arnold (interesting and young)
I like Lofton and Willoughby but they need to show they can at least outslug Burriss.
Murray hasn't caught much, and Sim/Staley/Krill were supposed to dominate the levels they were at.
Graham, Escobar, and Allen need to start having a hint of success.
I don't put stock into college picks who dominate rookie ball unless they were high draft picks.
Here would be my top 10 (in no particular order):
ReplyDeleteJohnny Monell, C, AA
Ryan Cavan, 2B, High A
Justin Fitzgerald, RHP, AA
Chris Heston, RHP, High A
Stephen Harrold, RHP, High A
Kelvin Marte, LHP, High A
Kelby Tomlinson, SS, Rookie
Ray Black, RHP, DNP
Joe Staley, C, Short Season
Bryce Bandilla, LHP, DNP
Would there be room for Brett Bochy in the top 50? His numbers looked pretty good last season- albeit he's a bit old for Augusta and just recovered from Tommy John. I know Baggs gave a good report on him in one of his blog entries a few months back.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the quick feedback, everybody!
ReplyDeleteBrett Bochy is already in. This is just for the last 10 slots or so in the top 50, so Bochy is going to be somewhere in the top 40.
I'm pretty sure Estrada did not sign. ?Relaford is a good considertation I didn't think of.
A couple of other international signings we haven't seen yet: Simon Mercedes, RHP and Victor? Sanchez, OF. Not sure if I should consider them before we see them play.
hacker will back with the giants for 2012
ReplyDeleteand just like that, giants fixed their depth prob in sp
i feel better now
hey kinda off topic but lets say a rival like the dodgers were interested in Yu Darvish could their rival like the giants outbid the posting fee but lowball their contract so he goes back to Japan
ReplyDeleteDrB - My bad, Estrada (mr irrelevant for the Gints as the 50th pick, did not sign). Serves me right for falling in love with the name. I like all thos PR academy guys, I think its an interesting strategy and am dreaming of snagging those 2 SS's.
ReplyDeleteBacci - assume you're talking about Eric Hacker, not any radio host potshots.
OGC will be glad to know he won't have to defend Sabean signing up Yuniesky Betancourt, the Royals took him back again.
Due to missing the non-sign I just looked up the guys we missed out on: Adam Paulencu in the 13th (Canadian pitcher who plays for Maine), Tyler Leslie in the 15th (CA HS Pitcher), Andrew Triggs (USC pitcher who decided to go to grad school if I remember) and at 30: Dave Fischer, RHP from UConn.
ReplyDeletePretty good job of signing if you miss 4 guys out of 30. Giants signed 38 of 50 overall. Next year with the cut to 40 rounds should bring the MLB ratio down some. Its the craziest draft there is, its pretty amazing the tools that are available now for fans.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteThe answer is yes, a team could make a high bid to get the rights and then lowball the offer just to block the player going to a rival. The bidding team would have to be careful to not lowball it too much. The commish can award it to the second highest bidder if there is evidence the highest bidding team did not bargain in good faith.
Shankbone,
What's Grant over on MCC going to freak out about now that he can't freak out about the inevitable Yuniesky signing?
DrB - freakouts aren't coming easily this offseason, just the budget. Not sure about the 130MM line. I think they might come up 5MM short or so, depending on Panda/Timmy/Vsong. They may have room for Cody Ross still at 4-5M, if the Reds don't snag him.
ReplyDeleteFangraphs article today, spewing the usual. I don't know, in my gut I like the LOOGY signings. I just do. I also see the advantages of the trades. I can't get too negative about all this, I just wish they weren't inflexible with the 130MM and looked towards some 5th starters.
Beltran's bat looks good, but there's a lot of baggage that goes along. Backup C looks good with Sanchez in the wings. I'll buy the pinch running/D of Handy Manny but if he's the main course we'll be dreaming of mediocre IF guys like Ryan Theriot in a hurry, and throwing more promising arms into the trade fire. Mainly I'd like a proven right handed bat, either in the lineup or spot start/bench. And a real 5th starter. Zito. Zito. Zito. That's the real issue here. Our offense is improved, just not enough for the stats guys to notice. I think they'll overwhelm expectations, this is a good squad of players who are getting underestimated.
I think they need another RH bat with some pop off the bench. They can probably afford to wait until the arbitration guys are taken care of then go dumpster diving for Jonny Gomes or somebody like that.
ReplyDeleteYup, I wrote a response to that fangraphs article full of recycled, regurgitated internet CW on Sabean and the Giants. I don't think there was one single original thought in that article. Anyway, some people over there thought I was high when I wrote it, but several others seemed to appreciate an alternative point of view.
ReplyDeleteI mean does anyone who visits this site seriously think George Sherrill would be an acceptable replacement for Affeldt or Lopez? Come on! That guy is one of the worst gas cans out there!
ReplyDeleteShank well said. Zito/5th day still really bothers me as the Giants hitting is unlikely overcome being down by 3-5 runs by the 5th inning. Agree the offense is improved BUT they need every starter to keep them close until the pen can step in and the offense can scratch out 3+ runs.
ReplyDeleteMy additions:
Johnny Monell, C, AA
Stephen Edelfsen, RHP, AAA
Chris Heston, RHP, High A
Stephen Harrold, RHP, High A
Reiner Roibal, RHP, Short Season
Garrett Buechele, 3B, Short Season
Jack Snodgrass, LHP, Short Season
Kelby Tomlinson, SS, Rookie
Demondre Arnold, RHP, Rookie
Ray Black, RHP, DNP
Bryce Bandilla, LHP, DNP
Just saw your fangraphs response. George Sherrill? really? I just had a tussle with my absolute least favorite MCC commentator/bully about Sherill/Affeldt as well. I've watched Sherrill, I was happy as hell when the Doyers traded for him. Stats only tell part of the story. That guy is a disaster. Affeldt has some pretty funny splits the past 3 years, he has been inconsistent - from gas can to absolute nails. What interwebz commandos don't understand is the market is not dictated by WAR charts, its supply/demand and the supply is insanely low right now. Like you said, once they were able to lock up Lopez (below market), why not pick up the option to hedge your Wilson risk and keep the pen intact so you don't have to go horse trading later in the year?
ReplyDeleteI understand the frustration of the budget, but it shouldn't extend to keeping a top 3 pen. Leave the damn loogys alone. Next year Runzler or someone else will hopefully be ready to go. If not, maybe they sign up Affledt again for another 2/10MM and get everybody riled for kicks.
Who knows, maybe he's worth it then too. He's pretty young compared to the 41 year olds. And lets not forget, John Daniels, a pretty good young GM, tried to pull a Sabey Sabes and traded away a lot of talent to fortify the pen, he came up short.
It definitely is frustrating to have to pass off Warrior Spirit and Avocado Man, but there isn't any point in wallowing in it, and our gamers such as Posey and Sando aren't going to wallow in it, they're going to go out and punch teams in the mouth. That's where I'd like to focus as well.
Just re-read your post - this stands out big time: There is a severe relative shortage of LHP’s compared to RH batters. Most managers prefer to attack switch-hitters in late innings by forcing them to bat RH because they don’t hit from that side nearly as often and are thus not usually as successful batting RH.
ReplyDeleteIts little things like this the Gints have advantages in. Thank you for the good argument for my damn Loogys. I like em.
No Panik?
ReplyDeleteIts very popular to lump Huff in with Zito and Rowand as deadweight now. I watched some highlights of 2010 again, and was reminded just how huge he was. 4th among position players in the NL (BR WAR) - behind Pujols, A Gonzo and Votto. The Giants don't need a repeat of that, they need him to get halfway back. 290/385/891 might be out of reach, but 275/340/800 would be mighty useful. Thats right at his career average.
ReplyDeleteAbout this Career even-year/yo yo. Going by OPS+, he has great age 25-27 years, then average age 28-30 years. MVP vote age 31 year in Balto, crash 32 year, MVP vote age 33 year with us (The Giants won the world series - every once in a while you gotta throw that out there, sounds good) then this crash year. 5 great years, 3 average years, 2 crash years.
He's a proven hitter until he's not anymore. I think its fair to be skeptical of a guy going into his year 35. Huff is a good clubhouse joker supplemental bat. He's not good being the leader, and the main cog. He owned up to the conditioning and losing the locker room. If he's taking it serious, I think he's got a good chance to put up those career average numbers. Like Cody Ross, he just couldn't get in a good hitting groove last year. If he can't hang anymore, the Giants at least have a backup plan in place. But I think he's going down with a fight this year.
Anon,
ReplyDeletePlease go back and read the intro to the main post again. I think that will answer your question about Panik.
Shank,
I agree about Huff. Everybody acts like the Giants signed him to 2 years because they thought he was going to have 2 more 5.7 WAR seasons. Well, if that had been the case, they would have given him over $20 M per season. They signed him to be a 2+ WAR player which is at or below his career average. I think you might be the one who said over on Fangraphs that if they are going to claim they KNEW Huff was going to completely tank so they also claim they KNEW he was going to put up a 5.7 WAR and lead the Giants to the Championship in 2010? Man, if they did, I'd sure like them to link me to THAT quote!
One more comment about "LOOGYs", Bochy's ability to call on Affeldt and Lopez to shut down middle of the order LH batters is as big as any reason you can put forward as to how the Giants were able to win it all in 2010. In the case of the Phillies, he was able to use his LHP's to shut down a lefthanded leaning team for what, 6 innings in one game?
ReplyDeleteFor all their claims to be statistically savvy over on Fangraphs and other places, I can't believe they haven't picked up on the fairly extreme imbalance in numbers between LH batters and LHP's. It actually should be pretty obvious.
I have a top 15 or so...
ReplyDelete1. Bandilla - LHP doesn't he throw mid 90's?
2. Delgado - SS undersized but a decent bat already.
3. Buechele - 3b
4. Murray - C
5. Ben Thomas - 1B
6. Ryan Cavan - 2B
7. Kelvin Marte - LHP
8. Steve Harrold - RHP
9. Edelfsen - Is close to the majors but limited upside.
10. Joe Staley - C
11. Ray Black - RHP Throws mid 90's as well
12. Tomlinson - SS If the bat develops his D should play at the next level.
13. Snodgrass - LHP
14. Krill - Utility
15. Roibal - What is the story with this guy? He signed for a big bonus then I didn't hear anything more from him.
Those are my top 15 from the 40-50 range. See what others think.
slc,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the input. With the help of the readers here, I think I've got it down to a pretty good Top 50. I'm let is percolate for awhile. Could still change my mind. I'm planning to post the top 50 list sometime between Christmas and New Years then do daily scouting reports up to Spring Training.
My $0.02, al;though not exactly how you requested it...
ReplyDeleteFirst, Monell HAS to be there. I think he is almost guaranteed to have some kind of MLB career, even though he is pretty low on the Giants depth chart. I am surprised he is not in the top 40. Good sign for the org as a whole that he is not? Same deal with Edlefsen. Not a super-high ceiling, but a guy who is on the cusp of graduating HAS to be there.
Roibal is a high ceiling guy, so I do not know if you can keep him off a top 50 org list, almost regardless of his production so far.
Black, Delgado, Bandilla, Lofton and Tomlinson were all recent high-ish picks, so they deserve consideration on the same grounds.
I have always had my eye on Willoughby, but I think it may be time to let that one go. He is all speed, no production, and even that was in the DR.
Cavan, Krill and Thomas are guys that I will have my eye on, but I understand their placement either way.
CSS,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the input. Yes, I believe it is a good sign for the organization that some of these guys are on the bubble. I remember a few years ago, I felt like I was really scraping to get the last 10 guys to fill out the top 50. This year it filled up so fast with obvious guys, before I knew it I was putting down names that I thought should be on and I was up in the 60's and 70's! Gonna be a long Honorable Mention list this year.
Well that Fangraphs chat blew up some more from when I checked in. OGC has all that time for these knuckleheads and can't respond to my Betencourt joke?
ReplyDeleteI am not sure what people are expecting the Giants to do with Posey. The options available appear to be a) wring hands, then sign a bad FA catcher to provoke more wring hands or b) expect your best player back and proceed. I think both DrB and OGC made that point.
For me things haven't changed, I'll judge the offseason a success if Matt Cain is locked up. And great point, great point OGC about avoiding other FAs when you are addressing your own. Matt Holiday's big signing was the first chink in the Pujols. You have to make your guys feel the most important, always. Great point.
Huff's been covered, but Melky Cabrera is getting hammered with of course no consideration that Brian Sabean, vet lover extreme, just traded for a guy in his year 27 season. That is just crazy to me. Harp on the guy for years, butt of jokes, he gets a guy coming off a good year and he's just buying high, no regard to anything else. Makes me wonder what the outcry would have been for Coco Crisp/David Dejesus, etc.
Maybe I'm getting pushed this way, but I don't even want Beltran anymore. This is a good squad as configured.
Seeing players in SK, since Panik is a given, Murray is as impressive a hitter as there is. Even the outs are hard and he hits to all fields. Great protection for JP all summer. Krill showed flashes of brilliance during the season. Thanks Doc.
ReplyDeleteShankbone,
ReplyDeleteI have to say I had a strong feeling Pujols was gone the minute the Cards signed Holiday to the big contract. Just no way they had enough $$$$ for both of them. It was an obvious hedge and it looks like that's exactly the way Pujols took it. Of course, it's quite possible that the Cards believe Pujols contract would be crippling to their future and never really wanted to sign him. I tend to believe that theory myself.
Anon,
Murray has very impressive stats from S-K. He is quite old for the level and doesn't really have a position. I love Krill and consider him a sleeper. Again a bit old for the level and the Giants have a lot of strong prospect that go deep in the organization so both Murray and Krill are on the bubble despite being deserving, IMO. I will give it more thought before posting my final list.
derosa is now a nat
ReplyDeletewish him and his hawt wife much luck
One can expand on what Shankbone says, that this is a good squad as configured. Bill James's projections for Cuddyer, Pagan, and Melky Cabrera are: Cud .275/.347/.451, Pag .278/.335/.399, MelC .279/.332/.413. Cuddyer's projection has a somewhat better OBP and more power; the other two have much more speed. They also don't weaken us defensively. Looks to me as if the Giants got two players approx. like Cuddyer with much less commitment and half as much money. Had the Giants signed Cuddyer, he would have counted for many of the complainers as a Big Bat; but two lesser names lead to frustration, foaming at the mouth, etc.
ReplyDeleteCampy,
ReplyDeleteIt just drives me crazy when people write that the Giants have not upgraded their offense. Maybe they didn't in a dramatic, budget-busting way, but both Cabrera and Pagan are upgrades based on projections. Posey is an upgrade just by coming back from the DL. Huff is likely to be better if for no other reason than he can't be much worse! If Huff isn't better, he will be on a short leash and we'll get to find out what Belt can do.
Sure, the injury bug may bite again, but there is no way to project that. If the team as a whole averages out to their projections, they will be just fine.
How about Eddy Martinez-Esteve and Wendell Fairley? How come they aint on any of those lists?
ReplyDeleteOur old friend Eugenio Velez signs a minor league deal with the Cards.
ReplyDeleteCampy talked me out of Cuddyer a couple weeks ago, all about the defense and baserunning. Same with Beltran I'm realizing.
BA lists Eddy M-E as with the Mariners. I thought he had retired. Fairley may scare the greybeards away from raw toolsy guys for a while.
Pagan and Melky both have better splits batting lefty versus righties. After last year, those projections look huge, which cracks me up. Contract years for both of em. Doesn't that count for anything anymore?
Shank, I see your Fairley and raise you a ToJo. Just remember that I have a Chuckie Jones still sitting in my back pocket.
ReplyDeletePato,
ReplyDeleteCan't help yourself there? I think you know the answer to your own question. No prospect list is perfect. I'll stand by the track record of my lists compared to any others you can find out there. I will also stand by the Giants track record of drafting and getting prospects to the majors over the last 4-5 years.
Cal Skier - ya got me! I was thinking 5-tool guys in the first couple of rounds, but that was a bad statement on my part.
ReplyDeleteGiants drafting in the last 4-5 years is pushing us from the bottom third on up. I think this list itself is a pretty good exercise in showing the depth needed to maintain is on its way from the low minors. Very exciting stuff.
Shankbone, I just had nothing to say about Yuniesky, it is not like I would defend such a signing, his defense is clearly worse than Crawford's and I think Crawford, while challenged to beat Yuni's 2011 OPS, will be close enough that his defense vastly outweighs his offensive deficiencies.
ReplyDeleteAbout Melky hate, yeah, I don't get it either. These same people bitch and moan about Sanchez, wanting to trade him away for basically nothing sometimes or some vet that wasn't really good (like Brew's Hart, he's only good at home), then they get mad when Sabean gets a young player with potential who showed some of it last season. I wouldn't expect him to repeat 2011, but I think he should improve some over his previous performances.
Yeah, I had the same feeling when they signed Holliday, wondering how Pujols would take it.
I would also note an article I read recently, I think the Hardball Times Annual, either 2011 or 2012, and their research found that traded top prospects tend to underperform relative to the prospects that teams keep, so teams really do understand their prospects really well, which implies that they should understand their own players and free agents well too.
Maybe the Cards, as DrB suggests, didn't try that hard, maybe they knew that the opening bid like that would piss him and his wife off. She was on a local StL radio station explaining how the Cards opened up with a 5 year offering, which insulted them.
Relatedly, I wonder if the Cards, having all their physicians information, could feel that Pujols is not the age he claims to be, that he could be older, and thus was conservative with their offer.
DrB, I see that all the time on TV, when autopsies are done, approximating the age of the person, so is there a way that the STL doctors can triangulate a guess as to Pujols real age based on examinations, or is that TV exaggeration?
Pato, my draft research showed that the odds of players like Fairley and EME ever reaching the majors, let alone be a good player there, was very low. The talent that far back in the draft (and yes, I'm aware that Fairley was a first round pick and EME a supp first pick) is just so raw and undeveloped that those picks are essentially lottery tickets where most of them are bum tickets with the occasional big winner.
ReplyDeleteEME and Fairley were lottery picks for sure. Interesting the past 2 drafts the Giants take "safer" college guys as opposed to dipping into the upside. Not a totally fair comparison as EME was our 2nd round pick (he is indeed playing for Seattle's AA affiliate Jackson btw). Fairley was the 29th pick of the draft though. Next year Barr comes in. Maybe he refuses to make that pick, who knows.
ReplyDeleteInteresting tweet from Hank Schulman - Giants actively looking for minor league deals for pitchers with invites to Spring Training. Absolutely putting Vogelsong's success out on a shingle for reclamation projects. This will iron out in Jan/Feb, but its nice to know they're are thinking this way for sure. Who knows, maybe Zito gets enough back. I do forget about that car accident OGC, and yes, people drive like idiots, especially in the neck of the woods he was rolling in.
I'm just having some fun at your expense on the Bentencourt - I know you wouldn't defend that. It makes obvious sense that most teams know their prospects best. I would have loved to grab Andrew Miller from Boston though, I think that is an organization that can't teach pitching to save their lives.
Fun at expense is not right. Having fun with your rep as Sabean defender #1 is better. And I know, I know... People take things seriously so you have to as well.
ReplyDeleteI think that's a good theory on Pujols also. Cards don't seem like the type of org to screw up this bad, maybe its the easiest way to back out of it without looking terrible.
People age at different rates and there is very little physiologic change from about age 22-late 30's so I don't see how a physician could make an accurate statement about age in the general age group, especially a highly conditioned athlete. I think it's more likely the Cards looked at his declining numbers 3 years running and then looked at how old he would be at the end of of the contract, 42 and decided they didn't want to be stuck with that. They couldn't just pass on him so they lowballed the offer knowing they would be outbid by enough that hometown discount would not be a factor to make it look like they were trying.
ReplyDelete