Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Down on the Farm: BA's Giants Top 10 Prospects

Andy Baggerly has his Giants top 10 Prospects list up at BA.com. I got my print version in the mail last weekend. Here's the list:

1. Gary Brown, OF
2. Tommy Joseph, C
3. Heath Hembree, RHP
4. Joe Panik, SS
5. Francisco Peguero, OF
6. Andrew Susac, C
7. Eric Surkamp, LHP
8. Kyle Crick, RHP
9. Ehire Adrianza, SS
10. Hector Sanchez, C

In the writeups and the chat, Baggs states that the Giants definitely had the option of trading Brown for Beltran instead of Wheeler and preferred to keep Brown.

I'm a bit surprise that both Joseph and Hembree are above Panik. I guess it's a good thing that a guy as good as Panik appears to be in only ranked #4.

I'm not sure about Adrianza in the top 10. His bat seems like it still has a long ways to go to even get to Brandon Crawford territory.

Charlie Culberson is #11. Ricky Oropesa is in the top 20. Brett Pill is in the top 15.

#2-8 could be in almost any order. Baggs sees a dropoff between Brown and Joseph and apparently another tier break after Crick at #8.

The Giants are looking for power like Ricky Oropesa in the draft because most FA power hitters don't want to come to SF.

That's about it. I have no big problem with the list. Baggs does his homework. I think he's gotten better at covering prospects since he started the BA gig.

10 comments:

  1. In John Sickel's site, he has a smackdown between three shortstop prospects: Tim Beckham vs. Adeiny Hechavarria vs. Jose Iglesias. Each received 6 to 10 million in signing bonuses. Would you trade Crawford for any one of these straight up? This really show the risk of investing dollars on a single player in the international market. The latter two sounds no better than Adrianza at this point.

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  2. I find that BA generally leans towards potential more than closeness to the majors, and both Joseph and Hembree has a ton of potential, whereas Panik looks like he'll be ready soon but relatively average (I think he could be more, but that seems to be the level I get from reading the sites).

    I agree, don't have much problem with the ranking, though I like it more than you do, DrB, given BA's focus on potential.

    But, yeah, I think the potential boat has floated by on Adrianza, surprised he got ranked over Hector Sanchez, a lot.

    And I agree that Baggs does a fine job covering prospects.

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  3. I stopped being a cheap bastard and signed up for their pay articles. The Gints are trying to target power whenever they can, and there might be some compromises. I think its way too early to call Ricky a less athletic Chris Dominguez, but you might have made me into a homer with your connections DrB.

    Given all the downers on Brandon Crawford, I'm pretty interested to see the comparison for Adrianza once he goes to the Eastern. Big test.

    Frankie Peggs is a mystery to me. The no-walking is astonishing. He held his own in the Eastern but didn't dominate. Thomas Neal got knocked a lot for his performance there, going from raved about to middling, then injured, and then shipped off for Orlando Cabrera. Professional baseball can be harsh.

    Excited about the new draft picks but its hard to say until they've suited up. That's what was great about Panik being ready to go, and the CBA got this one right knocking the signing deadline up. Also really like Hembree because he dominated two levels. Guys who dominate stand out.

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  4. I can understand the Tommy Joseph rank, as a legitimate power hitting catcher can be the gem of a decade, coupled with his apparent leaps forward on D, I guess i'm not ecstatic, but I understand.

    Here is my beef with Heath Hembree. I understand he has dominated two levels. I understand his K numbers are off the charts and he throws hard and is nasty... But, I think the Giants are the ultimate testament to the fact that good bullpen arms can be found and developed out of the scrap bin. Santiago Casilla, Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo are three that come to mind... Not real big name, sought after guys that have turned out to be excellent.

    I just feel strongly that a bat that can come into play at a projected above average level at a premium position (SS) for Panik should get a lot more points than a right handed bullpen arm.

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  5. Yeah, I'll take Panik, Crawford and Adrianza with all their warts any time over Beckham, Hechavarria, Iglesias, especially for the difference in price.

    BA's editorial staff has always had a thing for Adrianza. For all we know they might have forced Baggs to rank him in the top 10. They did that once before, or maybe Baggs got the message the last time and just put him in there to avoid the fight?

    Just my opinion, but if you look at his college record, Ricky is a much better hitter than Chris Dominguez ever thought of being. On the other hand, Ricky has yet to see a professional pitch while Dominguez has crushed a few pro fastballs in his day. Now, Dominguez can play and acceptable 3B and Ricky has never proven he can move off 1B, but Dominguez is not a lock to stick at 3B either. Yeah, way to early to be tossing off statements like Ricky is a less athletic Chris Dominguez. I mean, Ricky stole a few bases in college and he has hit 92 MPH on the mound, so I'm not so sure how unathletic he is.

    I think people have gotten way to hung up on walk rates, especially in prospects. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The single best predictor of future success from a prospect is BA followed by power followed by walk rates. For an equal BA, yeah, I'll take the guy who walks more, but given the choice of a kid who hits over .300 with no walks and a kid who hits .260 with an OBP of .360, I'll take the one who hits .300+. Remember, Pablo Sandoval essentially didn't walk at all either.

    I'm pretty sure I'm going to rank Panik #2 on my list with Joseph #3.

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  6. Off topic, but I'm impressed by the early returns on the new GM in Houston. Getting Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland from Boston for Mark Melancon was a steal, IMO.

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  7. The limited video I've seen Ricky looks plenty athletic to me. I'd say let the guy play some games before throwing down those critiques. He's a 1B not a toolsy CF.

    I think learning to walk is definitely a skill that can be worked on as prospects progress. But Frankie Peggs complete allergy to walking coupled with the power potential not really showing up yet has dinged him.

    I'd go Panik as well. Early returns on the pick looks like a steal on the same vein as Gary Brown. I'm watching Kelton Wong's progress closely as well as Michael Levi for comparisons to Panik. If he can somehow stick at short, that would really boost.

    Anon - great points - where's your handle? There's too many Anon's floating around, you don't get interwebz street cred blended in with the other ones. Wilson pre-Tommy John was a 1st/2nd round guy. Hembree was a 5th round pick and is looking like a steal a la Belt. I think the G's will take arms like that anywhere they can get em. Agree with your beef with the rank.

    If Lowrie can just stay healthy it'd be nice to see what he could do. Wish the Giants were in on that but I bet they didn't want to offer up any more of the pen. Nice trade for Houston for sure.

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  8. The Giants are doing a great job in the draft. Brown and Panik are perfect examples. They also are doing the right thing and allowing them to get their feet under them. Panik could have been rushed out of Salem, the way the Padres sent Spangenberg out ot Eugene, only to struggle. Panik spent a full summer getting adjusted to pro ball and won the league MVP. He and Murray were the best hitting combo in the NWL. I like what I'm seeing.

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  9. DrB - I think I found the Giants 2nd/3rd round pick if he drops to em. Check out Adam Brett Walker. Another college power hitting 1B/OF. #24 in BA's top 100 college. Big Mike Stanton type.

    Another guy 2nd/3rd that looks interesting is Tyler Naquin, skinny Texas A&M OF. Seems like a scrappy defensive oriented guy who might have growth potential. #18 BA top 100 college.

    I'm checking out the college baseball daily site - they have some nice detailed reviews. Those guys above both have profiles on mlbdraftguide.

    There seem to be some interesting prospects even if its not rated as high as last year.

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  10. Oh, yeah! Love Adam Brett Walker! I would be happy to see the Giants draft him in round 2, assuming of course there's no worthy P available there. This draft seems to lean more to the offensive side of the diamond.

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