Saturday, December 17, 2011

Hot Stove Update: Padres Trade Latos for Huge Haul

The San Diego Padres made a major trade with the Cincinnati Reds today, sending Giants nemesis Mat Latos to the Reds for a package including Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. I like this trade for the Padres. I appears to me that the package they are getting is stronger than the one they got last year for AGone. This is an example of how a rebuilding team can take top notch, cost controlled talent and leverage it into even more talent that is even more cost controlled.

We all know about Latos. I don't dig his punky attitude or his hideous tattoos, but he does have undeniable talent. From the Reds' perspective, they gave up several good, but blocked prospects for a top of the rotation starter that they hope will put them over the top while they have a window with Joey Votto. There is a point of view that the Reds might have been better off in the long run trading Votto for a big package, but there is nothing wrong with this move either. Latos is more than a Product of Petco. He's big, athletic, throws hard. He can get strikeouts and grounders. He does tend to be on the wild side with both his arm and his mouth. Reportedly the Padres had concerns about how his lack of maturity would impact him going forward.

I would think Yonder Alonzo is the centerpiece of the deal from the Padres perspective. I've really liked Alonso since his college days in Miami. He not only hits for power but a terrific BA too. You all know how much stock I put in BA, especially when it's combined with power. He also exhibits excellent plate discipline to top it all off. He was a guy I wouldn't have minded the Giants drafting in 2008, not that I'm at all unhappy with Buster Posey. Alonso is kind of the opposite type of first base hitter as Anthony Rizzo, the guy the Padres got in the AGone trade last year. Alonso will likely give you a solid BA with extra base power. I project him to hit 20-25 HR's in a neutral ballpark so he could be more like 15-20 in Petco and the other west coast ballparks. Rizzo is more all power with questions about whether he can make enough contact.

Grandal is a switch-hitting catcher also out of Miami. He's projects to have a solid bat from both sides of the plate with adequate defense. He will likely spend the year in AAA for a bit more seasoning, but should be the Padres starting catcher for 5-6 years after that.

Brad Boxberger was an underachiever at USC. He seems to have found a niche in the bullpen and projects as no worse than an 8'th inning guy. He's put up outstanding K/IP ratios in the minors so far.

Volquez is a reclamation project. The Padres are likely hoping he can find success in the friendly expanses of Petco which they can parlay into even more inexpensive talent with a deadling trade or a trade next offseason.

Solid trade for Josh Byrnes and the San Diego Padres.

In other news, the Colorado Rockies signed Michael Cuddyer to a 3 year deal. Cuddyer is a guy who could really thrive in Coors Field. He could be a nice #5 in the order behind CarGone and Tulo.

Jimmy Rollins signed a 3 year deal with the Philies for $33 M and a vesting option for a 4'th season. This one hurts a little. It seems like the Giants could have figured out a way to swing this deal and give themselves a solid SS for the next 3 seasons. I think Crawford will do a fine job, but is unlikely to come close to Rollins' production over the next 3 seasons, and Rollins' deal is not crippling by any stretch.

16 comments:

  1. i dont think the giants wanted to tie themselves to rollins with panik in the wings...unless you dont think that panik will be ready till 2015

    i also dont think the owners allowed sabes to sign anyone (other than cain) to anything above a 2 year plus option....seriously...do you blame them?

    in other news...and this is a bit surprising....whitey accepted a one year minor league deal with the giants

    he just posted on his facebook

    i can see the grizzlies carrying 3 catchers, thnx to the dh, and whitey will basically be crash davis to the few kids on the squad...but this really is a surprise....im sure it comes with an opt out

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm OK with a total in-house rebuild. I think the Giants can contend with what they have and this gives them more flexibility going forward.

    I seriously doubt that the owners told Sabes he couldn't sign anyone beyond 2 years. I'm guessing it's more likely that Sabes made that recommendation to ownership when they canned Magowan and were looking for a path out of their Zito/Rowand induced purgatory.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Didn't ownership say early on that they were going to stick with their budget but if something made sense they would consider it? I thought for sure they threw that out there early and then recently have just been crying about how they can't go over 130.

    Rollins or Cuddyer would have been the perfect exceptions considering how little both signed for and how much impact they could have on this lineup. Maybe I am way off base and somehow this offense is going to be just fine with the new additions and better years out of Huff and Belt but seems like a lot of question marks to me. It will be very difficult to stomach another season like last year knowing that if we had a guy like Rollins leading off or Cuddyer in the middle of the lineup we probably would have won the wild card.

    I don't think Rollins would have blocked Panik either. Ideally Panik should spend all of 2012 and probably start 2013 in AAA before getting a shot as a late call up that year. Having Rollins would give them the ability to ease Panik along without any urge to push him. There is also the thought that he may end up playing 2B anyway or you could always make Rollins switch to 2B if Joe is good enough at SS when it becomes an issue in 2014.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Pato,

    Yeah, I pretty much agree with that. I would have been happy with Rollins, Cuddyer or both at the price and years they signed for.

    I'm also OK with just playing the kids biding time to get all the dead wood off the roster and payroll, especially if they are able to get Timmy and Matt signed to extensions. I don't think the "windowers" will be too excited about the building exclusively from within concept, especially if they don't make the playoffs in 2012.

    I think they can contend in 2012 if everybody plays to their projections which are usually pretty close to career averages. We all know that nobody plays to their career average though. We just have to hope that only 1 or 2 play well below and several play above.

    Personally I'm thinking Pablo Sandoval has a huge year in him.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Did every team in our division get better this offseason except for the Dodgers who made a few lateral moves? The Rockies, DBacks and now the Padres are considerably better. I can't believe we have not made any moves to get better besides people getting healthy. Cabrera and Pagan do no make us better. I am not saying go spend money just to spend money. I really think we should have been in on Fielder all along. I am almost positive he would take a 6 year deal with a mutual option. Also he wants an opt out clause after 3 years. That would be even better. Having Fielder for 3 years would be great and also would not hurt us for extending guys like Posey, Sandoval, etc. We are really missing out this offseason and I am afraid if the Rockies pick up some arms, we could become the third best team in this division. Hopefully I am wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think Pagan and Cabrera make the Giants better. Posey back will make them better. They will have significantly better defense. Either Huff will be better, or Belt will get his chance and I think he'll be a whole lot better. I think they need 1 more RH bat off the bench and another option or two for #5 starter.

    The Padres made a good trade, but it doesn't make them better in 2012. In fact, it makes them weaker.

    Rockies really haven't addressed some serious problems on the pitching side.

    IMO, the Dodgers got slightly weaker.

    D'Backs will be tough again.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I like Rollins, he's a gamer, that does sting a little. I think it was one of those that the Gints would have had to go over the top to get him away from the Phils. All things equal he'd stay. So while 3/33 looks reasonable I don't think we would have got him for that.

    Pagan! My white whale is going to kill it for the Giants next year. This was a good bet acquisition. I'll take the razzes if he turns into a clubhouse cancer but if you are bummed about the pickup go check out some youtube clips of him, he has some great highlights.

    I agree completely about Pablo. I saw a guy taking a huge step forward and MVP votes will be had if he continues the conditioning and work.

    Our hero Posey is just that. People underrating his return, and that's just fine.

    Pads trades: I like the Mike Adams trade for them more than the Adrian Gonzo. Apparently the Cubs are sniffing at Rizzo again for Garza. I guess Epstein really really likes him. That was a boatload of talent for Punk Latos, for sure. Looks like Walt Jock got impatient, but he did get a pretty good pitcher. Hope he gets slapped around in the bandbox park.

    Dodgers did some terrible mediocre moves, the kind Sabean haters are looking for Sabey Sabes to do. D-backs look improved, and stocked with backup IFs for sure. Rocks - I like the Cuddyer move, but I'm glad the G's didn't go there. Pads are looking like a sweet AAA squad. I like our chances, but they have to play well against the NL West and play the D-backs hard. If you look for unsung advantages, the D-backs OF, the entire OF, should have won gold gloves last year. We aren't going to match that but we got guys who are faster in Melky and Pagan. And we finally have some SB threats, replacing Ross/Warrior Spirit/Burrell. Melky is a pretty big question mark for sure, but I think this BABIP is sustainable so he might surprise as well. But book Pagan for a great season.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Shankbone,

    Agreed that Rollins wasn't coming to SF for 3/$33. Phils got a hometown discount there.

    Is it just me, or is Josh Byrnes already looking like a better GM than Epstein's boy Hoyer?

    I'm feeling curious about what a Giants speed lineup could do with Pagan, Burriss, Melky, Nate, Belt and Crawford et al all in the same lineup together. I'm working on a post about Burriss and what kind of options he gives us in my head. Gotta flesh it out a bit before I post it.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Oh yeah, forgot to comment in the main post that some team out there must be convinced that Yu Darvish is an ace!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sounds like it's either Toronto or Rangers. I'm betting on Toronto from what I've read. I have to say, based on videos I've seen of Darvish, I'm not convinced enough to think it's a good idea to spend over $51 M on a posting fee BEFORE you negotiate a contract.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sure, the other teams in the NL West worked hard to improve: they have to, they finished a heck of a lot of games behind the Giants, let alone the D-backs.

    I don't see the Rocks additions making up 13 games that they were behind the Giants. And that is before we add in Posey, which probably puts them back a few more games on top of that.

    SD is NOT improved, they might break even with Volquez for Latos, but they still need to replace Harang, who moved on to the D-gers, if I recall right. And that lineup, still waiting for them to show what they are made of.

    About the trade, recent research found that teams know their prospects way better than other teams, and if they give up on a top prospect, you can bet that most likely they have problems that are not apparent to other teams. That said, I like Grandal, and even if they are only average starters, that is still a lot of good replacement players in 1-2-3 years for them, so this looks like a great deal for them - a few years out.

    Dodgers have done even less this off-season than last when they needed to replace Manny's offense. Now they have to hope that Matt Kemp repeats instead of sitting on his laurels (or letting the big contract spook him). I'm not afraid of them.

    The D-backs need to improve, they ended up over 10 games over .500 in 1-run games. Only Bochy in the last 20 years was able to consistently end up at least 8 wins above .500 regularly (though Dave Johnson was pretty good). They will need to replace that production somewhere. Kubel, though, where is he playing, I thought they were full in the OF, is 1B his spot? And his defense, from what I recall, is bad, and I don't see his offense being that much better than a gold glove type OF, so this move is curious, unless it frees AZ to trade an OF to get more pitching, say.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I am a little shocked at all the love Rollins is getting. His offense has been in decline the past few years. He's also been a little injury prone as well. Yet people would be happy to give a 3 year, $33M deal with him?

    Meanwhile, all the second guessing on the Huff deal reverberates still.

    I like that most of our big money deals will be gone in a a couple of years, leaving only the big money deals we give our own young players, hopefully, this off-season. I would rather risk paying for their 30's than for other players' 30's.

    Ideally, I would like to see deals for Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval. That's our core, and if Belt continues to develop, he could get a nice long-term contract next season as well. Maybe for Crawford too, though not big money, but still something nice for him and us, just to get payroll clarity. And if Melky does well, him as well.

    ReplyDelete
  13. OGC - the Kubel signing could turn out well for us - They'll make Parra the 4th OF, which weakens their D considerably. They'll get a little O boost, but that outfield D of theirs is sweet.

    I think Rollins has intangibles the way Franchez has intangibles. It is expensive, what came out is the 4th year easily vests, so its actually 3/33 with a 5MM player option. So its 38MM for sure going easily to 4/44. If the Gints had to go over that I'm glad they stayed away.

    I don't get all the D-backs middle infield moves, they look terrible to me. But they did improve their pitching and pen as well. They are going to be formidable.

    ReplyDelete
  14. McDonald is excellent defensively. Maybe Gibson is planning on a lot of late game subs?

    Parra sounds good, I have to think that he is trade bait now, or one of their better OF, maybe to get better starting pitching.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Drb, agree with your post on the Latos deal. While it doesn't make them better in 2012, I think the trade looks very one sided in the Padres favor. Its funny I was just reading about the Reds prospects in BA on an airplane coming home last night! Volquez - excellent arm, maybe Black can help turn him around. Alonzo - 2008 1st round pick - .330 BA with 5 hrs in 88 abs with the Reds in 2011. No question he can hit, but defensively he's average.. Maybe Anthony Rizzo's becomes trade bait? Grandal & Boxberger - 1st round picks in 2009 & 2010 respectfully. Grandal was blocked by their #1 prospect Devin Mesoraco who is also a Catcher. He hit around .300 splitting time between A & AA in 2011. Boxberger could win a job as setup man in the Padres bullpen.

    While Latos is a good young talented starting pitcher going 9-14 with 3.47 ERA with the Padres, the reds gave up Volquez + #3 BA prospect Alonzo, #4 prospect Grandal, and #10 prospect Boxberger. I question giving up 4 good young players for him. I think the trade would make more sense from the Reds perpective if they were trading for an all star caliber pitcher such as Timmy or Cain for example..

    LG

    ReplyDelete
  16. Oh, also, I wonder how Latos feels now that he's mercenary working for the Reds. :^)

    ReplyDelete