I've become fascinated with baseball scouting. The proliferation of high quality video cameras and access of these to the internet has enabled some of us who were previously only able to look at statistics and read other people's scouting reports to look at players from around the country, who we would never be able to see play in person, and form our own opinions about them. I started out by going to minor league games in my local area and making mental notes of players physical appearance and some of the good and bad things I thought I saw them do on the field. I then compared my own observations with published scouting reports. Over time, I've tried to remember some of these impressions and follow them to see if they hold true over time. It's been a learning experience. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, but I feel I've gotten better at it with experience.
There's a great site I've recently discovered, MLB Draft Guide. I have it linked over on the left hand side of this blog. I've already learned a tremendous amount about the upcoming draft class from reading this site and a few early mock drafts around the internet. MLB Draft Guide's current player profile is of a kid named Keon Barnum from Florida. He's not listed in BA's Early Top 50 Draft Prospects, nor is he in Draft Site's current 2 round mock draft. Holy moly! If this kid is not a top 50 draft prospect, all I can say is this must be one heckuva deep draft! Perfect Game reportedly has him ranked #17. Their list requires a subscription though.
He's a B-L, T-L first baseman in the mold of Willie McCovey and Ryan Howard. He's 6'4", 225 lbs. Big boned and long limbed at the same time. He has a tremendously powerful swing that is simple, short to the ball. His follow through may be a bit long and exaggerated but that's all after contact with the ball. On top of the raw power, he's a patient hitter with enough speed to steal 10 bases. He's rangy at first base with an arm that throws 90 MPH. I know HS stats don't mean much, but here's his junior numbers just for fun: .491/.654/.964 with 6 HR, 10 SB in 55 AB. Part of the reason why his AB's are so low is he drew 26 BB!
Check out MLB Draft Guide and look up some of Keon Barnum's videos around the internet. There are some links in his MLB Draft Guide profile. He doesn't fit the profile of the type of player the Giants have drafted in the first round, but man, I love what I see in this kid, even as a first baseman. I would expect his stock to be pure helium or else some team is going to get a real steal in this draft!
What are your thoughts after scouting Keon Barnum by video?
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I like that site a lot, the guy who runs it seems to have a mind of his own. I am already dreaming of a few players that I know will get swooped up before we pick, like Correa, Roache and the GA kid speedster Bryon Buxton.
ReplyDeleteKeon Barnum: looks awesome. I really liked what his coach had to say about him. Will those damn Florida Marlins be all over him? They pick 9th. Lots of Fl talent in the draft for sure, but I doubt he slips into the 2nd round. Any comparison to McGriff or the thought of WillieMac will get one drooling fast.
Here is Mayo's top 50, just came out and is hard to find on the site right now, so I'll link it for people: (Barnum is 42 on his list)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/
Sounds like a great kid, but do we want to spend that much resources on a position that might already be overloaded? I realize that we have to think for the future, but we already have Pill, Belt and even Posey who could be playing first in 2-3 years. Posey becomes a possibility with Joseph's or Sanchez maturation. We also have the kid we drafted last year that you're so high on.
ReplyDeleteI get prospects are prospects, but presumably 1-3 round kids are closer to "can't miss" than not. Seems to me, we've thinned our pitching staff and maybe using the top pick on a starter (even if we sign Vogelsong, how many years can he be expected to pitch, and we still need to sign Timmy and Cain).
I love it, you won't even consider stats from a professional league (japan) but you are semi drooling over a high school batting line!!
ReplyDeleteAnon 2 - Is that Pato from Lefty Malo? I remember a little dust up over Yu Darvish a few weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteAnon 1 - Gotta take the best guy available. Any chance at a 30-40HR guy with plate discipline is the gold standard as far as I'm concerned.
I'm not saying the Giants should draft Keon Barnum. I doubt they would even if I was saying that. He just doesn't fit the profile of the type of player they take in the first round.
ReplyDeleteI just think this kid scouts really well and if he's not in BA's top 50 and is #42 on MLB's list, then I have to think this draft is really deep.
Anon,
Maybe you skipped over my comment that HS batting lines don't mean much? This is a scouting post, not a stats post. I posted the HS line just for fun.
If the reference to Japanese stats is a carryover from a discussion on ELM awhile back and about Yu Darvish, my opinion of Darvish is based on a combination of what I've observed in videos and what the price to sign him is likely to be. Between the posting fee and signing bonus, He'll probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 M. That's a far cry from the Giants slot bonus at the #20 draft pick. So you are comparing apples and oranges here.
Shankbone,
Yes, if two prospects grade out approximately equal, then the pitching should be the tiebreaker, but you always want the Best Player Available, especially in round 1.
BTW, for those of you who might have missed the Yu Darvish discussion. I have seen several video's of him pitching in games. The max velocity I've seen him throw is about 91 MPH after converting KPH to MPH. All I'm saying is I don't think committing about $100 M to a pitcher from Japan who tops out at 91 MPH is a wise investment, especially in light of the performance of other pitchers who have come over from that league.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone has a link to a video of Darvish hitting the mid-upper 90's, I'd be happy to take a look at it. Otherwise, I'll maintain spending $100 M on him would be a poor investment.
Fun to watch. Without any background of scouting HS talent, I have no idea as to how his video translates. So, as a learning tool for me, it's good to see Keon and know that this is low first or supplemental round talent.
ReplyDeleteKelly, thanks for taking the time to look it up. I'll post more of these from time to time to try to get a better understanding of what's available in the upcoming draft. Maybe we can all turn into amateur scouts?
ReplyDeleteDrb, thanks not sure how the video tranlates also, but Barnum seems to have the attributes of a good hitter: power, patience, hitting opposite field based off the comments of his coach.. His video was impressive and fun to watch. I've always wondered myself what do scouts look for in judging hitting in regards to HS talent. How can they tell whether a HS player can hit a 90 MPH fastball for instance because they are facing HS pitchers.. I was impressed with a video I saw once of Ricky Orespesa's homerun against the #1 pick Gerrit Cole. Maybe that convinced John Barr to draft him! Thanks for the website, I'll refer to it when the draft gets closer and check to see if any good draftable college players will be playing against Hawaii in 2012. Hawaii will play San Francisco in 2012 so I'll check out that USF pitcher that is suppose be good..
ReplyDeleteLG
LG,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the Rainbows are playing St Mary's over there. I'm pretty sure St. Mary's has a pitcher who is considered somewhat of a sleeper in the 2012 draft. Stay tuned!
Oh yeah! The way I heard the story, that bomb Ricky hit off Gerrit Cole is probably what sealed the deal in John Barr's mind.
I know the decision to draft Brandon Belt came down to a single HR a scout saw him hit that told him Belt had the power potential even though his college stats didn't show it.