Saturday, December 10, 2011

Hot Stove Update: Baggs Drops A Hand Grenade

Andy Baggerly, the Giants beat writer for the San Jose Mercury News, dropped a small hand grenade into the Matt Cain contract negotiations yesterday that probably deserves some comment. In terms of impact, it was probably closer in payload to a cherry bomb or M80, but it's a bit disquieting, nonetheless.

Apparently what was heretofore known to Matt Cain and his agent and possibly a few other people was that the Giants last original extension offer to Cainer included a 3'rd year, 2013, at $16 M. The Giants pulled it off the table at the last minute and signed him to a 2 year extension. Now Baggs is reporting, without naming his sources, that the reason for the Giants change of heart was an X-ray or scan of some sort that showed "loose bodies" in his elbow. Now, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere around 80% of all pitchers in the major leagues have "loose bodies" of some sort in their throwing elbow, so that news, by itself, is not exactly earthshaking. What's a bit disconcerting is that the Giants were apparently concerned enough about it to yank an already agreed to year on a contract. What's also a bit disconcerting is that this was apparently news to Cain's agent who learned of it when he was asked to comment, saying he wondered why the offer was changed at the last minute. Couple that with the "twinge" Cainer felt in spring training last year, and you start to wonder how solid the Giants commitment to extending Cain really is. You also have to wonder who released this information to Baggs and what their motivation for doing so was. Cain, himself, did not respond to requests for comment vis Twitter. Twitter? Oh man, how times have changed!

Now, Andy Baggerly has every right and duty to report information he gathers as a beat reporter for the Giants. He seems like a guy who would hold himself to a high standard of reliability in terms of what sources he uses to gather and verify his information. In this case, the news has the potential to impact both Cain and the Giants, mostly in negative ways, so I hope Baggs did his due diligence on this one. For starters, the breach in confidentiality and the apparent withholding of information from the player has the potential to inject some negative feelings into the negotiations. At least initially, Cain's agent insists that they are looking to the future and will not let the past influence that, much easier to say than do. The information also potentially depresses Cain's value on the open market as well as depressing his trade value should the Giants end up deciding they can't get him re-signed. It's a 2 edged sword if not more.

There is a lot of hand wringing currently going on around the internet about the Giants "window of opportunity", a term that has almost begun to take on a life of it's own as it has morphed from a theoretical possibility to a metaphysical certainty, an internet meme if you will. The thinking goes that the Giants have this great pitching staff that will only stay together for a limited time, therefore they need to throw payroll constraints to the wind in order to bring in star offensive players to win while this "window" remains open. Much of that angst seems to be centered around the idea that Cain and Timmy are becoming so disgusted with the lack of run support they will bolt for free agency no matter how much the Giants offer. Stories like this tend to add fuel to that fire.

There certainly is something to be said for the "window of opportunity" theory. Billy Beane has been trying to find that window now for at least 10 years and keeps putting if off into the future. Sports history in general and Major League Baseball in particular is filled with dynasties that rise and fall, and many more others that never come to fruition. I have maintained that the Giants are not facing this type of "window". Their talent core is young, they have a strong farm system, they have a strong scouting department with excellent drafting strategy. Their skills at talent acquisition remain strong.

While it is much easier to envision an era of Giants dominance with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum locked up in long term contracts, It is by no means essential to the process. Big dollar, long term contracts can actually be a hinderence to sustained organizatonal success. Long term contracts given to homegrown players can go just as bad as the same contracts given to free agents from outside the organization. Right now, the Giants have a core of 5 young, homegrown players who look likely to command long term contracts that reach into 9 figures: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey. Yes, they are staggered a bit, but if you are talking contracts of 5 years or longer, there will come a time when they all overlap. Maybe the Yankees can afford 5 simultaneous $20 M/year contracts, but it's hard to imagine other teams being able to sustain that. Then there is the factor that if even one or 2 of those player get injured or have a steep dropoff in performance, the team becomes stuck in a losing situation with no way to re-allocate resources.

At some point, the Giants will likely not be able to keep all 5 of their current young core. That's where things get a bit delicate and you have to wonder if Sabean is savvy enough to play his cards right. For now, he is giving every indication he is all in on extending Cain and Timmy. He'll worry about the other 3 when their time comes. He's publicly identified keeping the pitching intact as his top priority. He has conserved his resources this offseason specifically to make sure that he can use them to take care of his pitchers. Now comes the negotiations. Whether this is information Baggs stumbled on or if somebody leaked it hoping to influence those negotiations, we may never know. It's hard to see it as a positive for any of the parties involved and does not appear to make it more likely that Cainer will agree to an extension.

At any point where it becomes an existential certainty that any of the core players are going end up as free agents, the most residual value the Giants can get comes from trading them for young talent that is just entering or about to enter the major league level. That is how you avoid "windows of opportunity" and sustain success in baseball. Of course, that has to be balanced against the chances of winning it all in the present with the almost inevitable risk of losing the players to nothing more than a couple of draft picks.

Buckle your seatbelts folks, it we could be in for some turbulence ahead.

34 comments:

  1. do you really need to ask who?

    seriously?

    wanna explain to me why, if they had these concerns with cain that they traded his heir apparent for a rental?

    this is what happens when a nuke is replaced with a hit man

    you dont try to get one over on one of your team's stars

    especially when the reason that you cant give him what he really deserves, is because you have blown your wadd on 3 stiffs

    but you keep on apologizing for sabey sabes and the regime (sans the nuke)

    lay odds that in 3 years, giants will again be the team no one wants to go to

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  2. That's getting pretty darn close to paranoia there, Bacci.

    Let's see how it all plays out before we go declaring the Giants a team no one wants to go to.

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  3. Great post as usual.

    Did not catch that Cain's agent was surprised by the news. So it has to be a Giants leak of this information. This seems more like a Magowan era type of leak (Dusty's tax bailout for best example), so could it be Baer's doing? He was pretty close to Magowan over those years, so we really don't know if it was Magowan's doing or Baer's.

    Of course, this fits my conspiracy theory that the San Jose Mercury is purposefully backing the A's while trying to bring the Giants down a peg. :^)

    A new columnist today appears to be trying to copy the Chron's Bon Mots writer with a snarky rundown of the week's sports news. He does put some good digs at the A's in there, so he's not totally letting them off, but if he's going to put up the Giants big mistakes, he should at least provide equality there by noting Beane's Ethier and CarGon trades. A perfect spot for it would have been the dig at the Wheeler trade, he could have ended it with, "Sabean should have learned from the example across the Bay when Beane traded Ethier for Bradley to win now." Or something like that.

    And if he's going to challenge the Giants payroll budget, why not discuss what the A's are doing with the $100M+ they have in EBITDA since Wolff took over the A's (that is the financial metric used today to evaluate how much value a company has, based on its cash flow to operations, or EBITDA, FYI). I think that is a better question to ask, and if he don't understand that stuff, he should ask his business section writers for help on that.

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  4. Totally agree that at some point, we will have to say goodbye to someone. We do have a window, but those crying for something to be done now believes that either Lincecum or Cain or both will leave the Giants because the team does not score enough runs, and thus we have to screw the franchise in the future with a huge contract now.

    However, we both believe that the Giants have a good thing going with their operations, and will be able to keep the good times going longer, thus we see a much larger window of opportunity, one that we are not pressured into making stupid deals in a desperate attempt to win today.

    That's why I'm not afraid of saying that if the Giants cannot work out extensions with Lincecum or Cain, we should trade them away, for maximum value. The CBA was never that good in compensating for lost free agents, but the newest one is even worse. To get maximum return on any good player you develop, you need to trade him away before he reaches free agency, there is no ifs, ands, or buts attached to that. Must.

    That is how dynasties die, as the drop off in talent when you lose the free agent is already steep enough, but even in the old CBA, the draft picks you get won't help you for another 3-4 years anyway. The time lag in return would kill your team's ability to keep the good times rolling.

    So trade for a big bundle of good prospects, guys who can help out in 1, 2, 3 years. Meanwhile, hopefully your core group of young players can keep things going (much like Atlanta when they started losing all their top players) until the cavalry of young prospects rise to the top. I still like to use the Haren trade as a great example of what I would like to see the Giants get for one of our top pitchers.

    Now, I would prefer to keep Lincecum and Cain into their early 30's at minimum (8 years is insane, just goes to show how much of a lie it was for them to say that he prefers shorter term because he didn't like the pressure of that, well, what does he think an 8 year contract would do then?). But business is business, we can't be doing stupid deals just to keep them either. I'm as sentimental as anyone (I still have my favorite toys from when I was a kid), but I don't want anything to block the Giants from being the best that it can be, even if it means trading off our top pitchers.

    Free agency is death, Beane blew it by not trading away Tejada and the other juicer, Giambi, and getting top talent for them, just to get one more year out of them. (and as bad as Rowand's deal was for the Giants, as that Merc columnist pointed out, I would argue that Chavez's deal with the A's was even more damaging because of the relative size to the payrolls) Beane learned too late to do that, Haren was a smart deal, but then he screwed that all up by trading CarGon for Holliday, which I still don't understand, did he really think that he would get better talent than CarGon and Street in exchange for Holliday? Worse, he ended up with talent that is not even equal to Street, let alone CarGon, that trade is just getting worse and worse with each trade he did.

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  5. not paranoia...reality

    ive seen how baer works...hes good at dishing dirt

    btw...the cards just did an ooopsie...furcal gets a 2 year for over 12

    thought for sure that the cards would be in the hunt for prince....guess not

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  6. Who knows why this story was leaked but it sure seems like something Sabes would be capable of doing to drive down Cain's price if he is planning on letting him test the market. Let him pitch this year and if he doesn't break down just offer arbitration and then gauge the market before resigning him in hopes that you save a few million for your greedy owners.

    I was prepared to lose Timmy in 2 years but losing both of them would really suck. I would rather lose 1 of them now then lose both of them in the next 2 years especially since either would bring a nice bounty of prospects and/or major league talent.

    You have to think that this story could affect the teams dealings with Timmy as well. He hasn't exactly shown much interest in sticking around after his arb years and I can't imagine this would motivate him to warm up to management all of a sudden. Maybe this season will tell us a lot in terms of whether they keep both or just one of them and they want to wait as long as they can before deciding.

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  7. Bacci has been complaining about the Giants for years now. Eventually he will be right, not because he's right, but because all teams inevitably reach the end of their lifecycle and start losing again.

    But as the saying goes, just because he's paranoid doesn't mean that they are not out to get him. :^)

    It's like I wrote above, the Naysayers just don't believe. They wear blinders and a big button on their chest that "Sabean is an idiot".

    We believe because we assessed the big picture of the whole situation and objectively looked at what the Giants are, right now.

    For a particular example of that, he thinks that Zack Wheeler was Cain's heir apparent. Even based on his minor league stats I wouldn't have said that, Wheeler has a lot of issues that he needs to resolve before he ever becomes anything in the majors.

    Beyond that, Sabean's track record is pretty sparkling in terms of pitching prospects: he lets go of the ones that aren't really that good, he keeps the ones that he thinks are worthy, until they prove that they are not anymore.

    I admit that I'm nervous about Wheeler's potential to make this all look horribly bad. But at some point you just have to put faith into a great track record. If Sabean starts making stupid trades of good players, then I'll join with the pitchforks.

    But this really reminds me of all the angst fans had when the Giants traded Alderson for Franchez. One guy kept on coming to my blog and telling me that the sky was falling, the Giants are coming to an end...

    And the Giants won the World Championship.

    If Wheeler were showing a lot more skills, I would be more worried, Bacci-worried, but he wasn't really that good a pitcher at the A-ball level, still has AA AND AAA to figure out before making the majors. It should be years before he makes it to the majors and start delivering, as Sabean said, it behooves the Giants to find a replacement in the meantime, but that was a good tradeoff of the future for the potential to get into the playoffs now. If Beltran's injury didn't happen, it might have worked, the team came pretty close to making the playoffs. And having Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong as our starting four would have been pretty strong for other teams to try to get through.

    Sometimes you just have to roll the dice and hope to get a winner.

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  8. It seems to me they need to have Cain either locked up by the end of this year or they have to assume he's gone and trade him. That is very hard to write.

    Agreed about the hand wringing, I think money is way more important than the quality of the Giants offense. But these things worry me because Sabey Sabes isn't known for his people skills. The optimist will point out Bonds 2 extensions.

    Whoever leaked this to Baggs was ultimately doing the franchise no favors. Its going to be turbulent for sure. If you want to keep your guys, you have to go at them with everything. Dropping this in the paper is bush league.

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  9. Toronto is looking for pitching and is loaded with prospects and possibly could look to unload either Lind or Bautista for a guy they tried to trade for already in Timmy.

    Texas would love to have an ace like Timmy on their staff and would it be that far fetched to think we could get Andrus and Napoli for Timmy and Crawford?

    The Yankees and Boston would have interest as well. The Nationals and even Phillies would probably listen to offers too. There are probably a couple more teams that would love to have Timmy and could afford to trade for him but here is one that is starting to make more sense then ever.

    Hanley for Timmy straight up? Miami is going all in this offseason and this could turn a sour situation with Hanley into a big save with Timmy. They may even throw in a prospect or two and then turn around and sign Timmy to a 7 year deal (sans no trade clause of course). Let's assume Cain's elbow is fine, we would still have a rotation featuring Cain, MadBum, and Voggelsong with a little cap room left to sign a 4th or 5th starter and pray to god Zito isn't a total disaster.

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  10. Well, I would say at any point if Cainer declares, much like Pujols did with the Cardinals that he won't negotiate until the season is over, that's means he's gone and they should trade him for the highest possible talent return. That means several high ceiling prospects at least one of whom is a pitcher close to the majors, something along the lines of a Jarrod Parker or Betances/Banuelos.

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  11. I think this is actually not much more than a tempest in a teapot, but us bloggers have to have something to write about so it tends to get blown out of proportion. Most likely, it won't affect the outcome of negotiations one way or another.

    I do think the Giants need to be firm about not going more than 4 years with either Timmy or Cain and if that means trading them, then that's what should happen.

    It will be interesting to see it unfold.

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  12. DrB - 4 years is the same as sending them on their way. I'd go offer 6 and go 7 personally, but 4 is way too conservative for their youth and talent.

    Bacci - Hanley Ramirez back injury is a gigantic red flag, not to mention that famous lack of work ethic and attitude of his. I don't care how talented he is, trading our aces for him is an absolute disaster waiting to happen. I doubt we could get Bautista for Timmy straight up due to his contract, but he could look pretty nice in RF for a few years, I have to admit.

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  13. If you are going to go 6 or 7, might as well go 8. If it hamstrings you, it's only for 1 more year.

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  14. That's true. Might as well go 8. You can chase that one right up the line. I looked it up, Tim is 27 born June 15, Cain is 27, born Oct 1, both 1984 babies. You give them 8 years they're locked up til 35. Roy Halladay is about to enter his year 35 season. Can they keep that up? Big gamble for sure. I'd take it, but I'm a Chasing Windmills type of guy.

    Not a leak crap to reporters type of guy, which I doubt is Sabean's MO either. Larry Baer's fingerprints are on this one. Leaking negotiations is always a double edged sword.

    If they're asking for 8 why not go to 7 right away with a bunch of praise. Make Cain the official captain, what not. Playing small here is a big time mistake. Fans will understand if you go down after offering it all and them punting it elsewhere, or a catastrophic injury. They won't understand being incrementally cheap.

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  15. Drb,

    We will see how it plays out. Bacci has a good point as to why trade Wheeler if they had these concerns about Cain? Why have their recent drafts gone away from drafting pitching in the early rounds, although they drafted Kyle Crick last year, knowing that their pitching staff is going to get expensive soon? Like you said on another post, its interesting they went away from this philosophy after having much success drafting Timmy, Cain, Madbum, and using Alderson in the F Sanchez trade. I have a feeling that they'll lock up one but not both pitchers.

    LG

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  16. Yeah, I can see the argument for 8 years. Pitchers are generally having longer careers due to a variety of reasons: Better understanding of arm stressors, pitch counts, TJ surgery, etc. In an 8 year contract, even if a guy gets TJ in the middle of it, you still get at least 6 productive years out of him, possibly 7. Then again, there are cautionary tales like Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy.

    Still, at some point I think it's almost certain that the Giants will have to let go of at least 1 or 2 out of their "Big 5" of Tim, Cain, Bum, Pablo and Posey. The key to surviving all that is to maintain a strong farm system.

    Personally, I would have preferred to trade Gary Brown instead of Wheels. There are other CF prospects in the system. There are not other pitchers with Wheeler's ceiling. For some reason, the Giants deemed Brown to be more untouchable than Wheeler and I'm also guessing Wheeler is the guy Sandy Alderson demanded.

    The Giants were still in first place at the time of the trade, but their offense was so cold it had frozen over. I don't think any reasonable person would say they could have continued to contend with that offense. They had to either throw in the towel on the season or make the trade. It was a tough call, but I don't think you can thrash them for it now. Water under the bridge!

    A few years ago, there was a growing chorus of Sabean detractors who were just thrashing him for his apparent inability to draft and develop position talent. I don't know who in the organization decided it was enough of a problem to rectify, but they brought in John Barr who is an expert at scouting and drafting hitters to be the scouting director. Ever since, their drafts have leaned more toward hitting.

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  17. There is another way of looking at all this: The Cardinals might be better positioned for the future had they traded Pujols before last season or at the deadline. The Angels reportedly asked about him. But then, they might not have won the World Series this year had they done that.

    The Cardinals got what, 3 pennants and 2 Championships out of the Pujols years. They get to keep those. Now they can start reloading their team while the Angels sweat out the last 5-6 years of his contract.

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  18. Here's the real hand grenade: Ryan Braun testing positive for PEDs. Ouchy. With Fielder leaving and this bomb, the Brew Crew is spiraling downward.

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  19. While I don't have any ill-will towards Braun, I am happy that another "good guy" (same category as A-Rod) got hit on PEDs. More and more MLB is going to have to turn away from the hypocrisy of its past.

    And those scum-sucking self-righteous writers (looking at YOU SI's Tom Verducci) are going to have back off their blacklisting, blame-the-player policies. (Verducci has said that he will never vote for anyone who has been linked (not proven, just suspected) to PEDs for the HOF. Tom, you're not going to be able to vote for anyone anymore.) So easy to blame the individual, not the circumstance. But, it's becoming clear, PED use in baseball is situation that everyone helped along.

    Oh, and Kemp should have won the MVP as well. What do you think guys? Anyone going to make anyone give anything back?

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  20. Drb, I was curious to lookup John Barr's credentials, and was so impressed with his accomplishments in Baseball.. He has over 20 years of scouting experience and was elected to the Professional Baseball Scouting Hall of Fame in 2009. He was responsible for drafting Mike Mussina, Ben McDonald with the Orioles, Paul Wilson, AJ Burnett, Jay Payton, and Terrence Long with the Mets, Russell Martin, Jonathon Broxton with the Doggers.. Barr is an expert at scouting and drafting both pitching and hitting.. The Giants have a good baseball man as their scouting director because he has a long history of scouting and drafting good hitters and pitchers.. Thats important for this org who wants to rely on a continuous flow of homegrown talent to the major league team for future success!

    LG

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  21. I really likeBrown, so I was OK with Wheeler traded. Particularly since Wheeler was struggling and Brown was not.

    One thing to remember is that these are negotiations. 8 years is what they are asking for first. 4years is what the Giants are offering first. In between is what will be negotiated. The numbers are going to be so big that they cannot risk passing up signing on the dotted line, as they are aware of pitchers frailty as well. Even a 5year contract should be 9 figures, vs. maybe $15-20M in arb. Too much money at risk, they cannot afford to risk that in free agency if the Giants offer a fair contract.

    Same for Cain, no matter what has happened before, if the money is that huge, hard to pass on it. Not many people roll the dice on that much money, as long as the money is fair.

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  22. Great comments Kelly, LG and OGC. I agree completely with everything you've said here. Well, except the Wheeler part. I've seen both Brown and Wheeler play. Nothing against Brown, but Wheels is a special talent. Of course, that's not the same a becoming a MLB star, but man, he put on an impressive performance the day I saw him pitch.

    John Barr is a big reason why I have been saying that the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball.

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  23. ok,

    if what the braun camp says is true...he is either a freak of nature, or the ped testing is severely flawed...

    false positives do happen, but the braun camp says that what the test showed is that he didnt take a ped, but somehow showed elevated levels of synthetic testosterone

    doc, you are a doc...is that frickin possible?

    the protectors of all that is holy are in an uproar over braun's possible ped use, with rosenthal declaring...THE MLB WILL NEVER BE CLEAN

    DUUUHHHHHHH

    when exactly has pro sports been clean? in fact, when has amateur sports been totally clean

    competitive people all look for an edge (ie, look for ways to cheat without getting caught)

    why is taking a substance that will allow one to stay strong throughout an entire season any worse than using a corked bat or doctoring a ball (guys who have done the latter, sit in the hall)

    and obsessive...did you once go to watch wheeler throw....or are you basing your conjecture on the stat sheet

    bet its the latter

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  24. We could have played the year out holding with Wheeler. The Pads got quite a haul for Mike Adams. I bet the Rangers would have taken Romo instead - the guys they got, Erlin and Wieland are pretty sweet, Sickels just named them 4/5 in Pads system. That would have given us a pretty deep set of arms. When Posey went down my first thought was trade Romo for prospects and play it out, kind of weird in retrospect.

    You can't regret the Beltran trade, we came up short, gotta move on. I have seen neither player live but have seen video of both. When the tweets were going crazy I was more bummed to lose Brown, and for about a minute it was reported both and I wanted to rage. Brown plays with a chip on his shoulder and I think he'll be more than the average CF prospect. I felt like Sabean could have played out the Mets more with their early deadline, but they weren't going to move him without a big name prospect.

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  25. Hey, hey there! Let's not get into a "I saw him, you didn't" contest here. Brown is a very good prospect and so is Wheeler. On the day I saw him pitch, to my eye, Wheeler was more impressive than Tim, Matt Cain or Merkin Valdez at the same level(I didn't see Bumgarner in the Cal League). That doesn't mean he's a better prospect or that he's a slam dunk to be a major league star. Still, impressions like that tend to stick with you and I would have preferred to lose Brown, but that's just me. I am sure we will all enjoy watching Brown cover CF at AT&T Park like a blanket and drive balls into the gap and steal bases like crazy in the near future.

    Braun: I am not aware of anything a person could take that would produce a false positive for a synthetic steroid, but I'm not an expert on such things. I'm sure they use Mass Spectroscopy for identifying these subtances and that is highly accurate.

    The only medical angle I can think of is that Braun appears to have fairly pronounced exophalmos(protruding eyes) that are often a sign of Graves Disease or Hyperthyroidism. The only problem with that theory is I cannot think of any way that would produce a false positive for a synthetic steroid.

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    1. My cousin has Graves' Disease. He had to take Methimazole. If this is the case for Braun, a therapeutic use exemption should have been given.

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  26. doc,

    ty for your analysis...although to me, a member of the tribe, braun looks a lot like many guys i know

    as for the "i saw him, you didnt"...only thing im pointing out is that the stat sheet doesnt tell the whole tale

    and i know that the giants had to go for it...but still bothered as a result of what appears to be a hard ball attempt with cain, and nothing to fall back on....bad enuf that zito is penciled in as 5th starter

    as for braun...shoot, if he started using as a result of getting the big contract (and not before) more power to him

    rather have that then a fat huff who took the contract for granted and effed everyone over

    braun done effed up in that he got caught

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  27. To my eye, Braun's exopthalmos looks more pathological than a normal variant, but again, that's just me. It's enough that if I was seeing him in the office, I'd order the lab tests pronto.

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  28. Okay, let's all get something for nothing. Ready, go...

    The point is, the Giants have the pitching. They need an average offense. Not great, average. Not Pujols, Hanley or even Beltran great, just Pagan/Posey/Panda average. AVERAGE. Anyone watching the recent WS, think the Giants staff could not have beat TX again in 5? We don't need to trade stud starters for stud bats. ALL players are paid, they ALL reach free agency. So choose great pitching or ___________.

    Looking forward to 2013, the Giants today have only 2 players signed to guaranteed contracts:
    Zito/$20MM
    Javier Lopez/$4.25MM
    Huff's $2MM buyout.
    Total $26.25M in guaranteed money. (Good work Sabes to keep the contract years down)

    Let’s say:
    Cain signs $100MM for 5 years ($20MM/yr)
    Melky Cabrera, Franchez, Affeldt and Fontenot leave as a free agents.
    Brian Wilson traded (more prospects?).
    Potential free agents Angel Pagan ($9MM) and Ryan Vogelsong ($8MM) sign contracts.

    That brings the total payroll to $63.25MM

    Giants pay a total of $20MM to the following 5 arb-eligible palyers:
    Panda/$8MM
    Casilla/$2.5MM
    MadBum/$4.5MM
    Romo/$3MM
    Nate/$2MM

    Giants pay $5.9MM to the following 8 team-controlled players:
    Posey/$2MM
    Belt/$.8MM
    Crawford/$.6MM
    Pill/$.5MM
    Surkamp/$.5MM
    Correa/$.5MM
    H. Sanchez/$.5MM
    Hembree/$.5MM

    The total is now $89.15MM for 18 players with Timmy + 6 to split $40MM.
    Timmy gets $25MM
    Four back-ups (Util IF, 2x OF, Reliever) get around $4MM
    The two starting spots are filled by Gary Brown and Joe Panik at $.5MM/each.

    Wow! $119.15MM or $11MM below the $130MM "hard cap" budget. Lots of room for a free agent in 2013 and Zito's $20MM comes off the books the next year.

    Okay there are some assumptions above, but really the Giants are well positioned with cheap, young, under control: a) relieve arms to step up in two years (Correa, Otero, Harrold, Dunnington, Bochy, Marlowe) and b) key position players in H. Sanchez, Belt, Brown, Panik and others to replace existing expensive contracts (Huff, Franchez, Wilson, Affeldt, Lopez, etc.)

    In sum, over $40MM in payroll is coming off the books after the 2012 season and more after 2013. It’s obvious the Giants can sign Timmy and Cain to long-term extensions (if they want to stay with the org), keep their other young core player’s intact, and still have around $10MM to spend in the free agent market after the 2012 season.

    Who says we have to lose our home grown talent to FA. Do the math.

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  29. MS,

    Yes, that's very true. It works for 2013 and probably for 2014. You have to remember, though, that MadBum, Posey and Panda will be getting progressively more expensive too, so after 2014, somebody is going to have to get trades unless payroll goes up considerably.

    The way the Giants operate, though, they will worry about that when the time comes.

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  30. exopthalmos looks more pathological than a normal variant

    and the above is why im a techie and not a doctor

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  31. I don't know, Bacci. All I can say is every time I see Ryan Braun play of TV the first thought that pops into my head is "hey, he has Graves Disease!"

    Now, it's possible that he had it a long time ago and it's been treated, but the eye changes often continue long after the primary disease has been treated. Or maybe that's just the way he normally looks and he's got nothing wrong with him at all, except that blood test.

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  32. yes, Bacci, I've never seen Wheeler pitch. What I have seen is that there are a lot of pitchers who look very impressive and they never figure out how to do it at the major league level. Homer Bailey by all accounts look great too, but just can't put it together in the majors yet, after 5 seasons of being on the brink of putting it all together and being the ace the Reds need. And he already made the majors by age 21.

    What I saw from the numbers was a pitcher who was struggling to do well in San Jose, Advanced A ball, and at age 21, he really needs to progress one level a year now just to make the majors by 24, if he is to become that ace that so many people think he will.

    I should note here that I see the potential, and I assume that is what you are talking about, his potential. Stupendous GB rate, plus good strikeout rate to boot. I had dreams of a King Felix coming up for us.

    I had forgiven him 2010, due to his injury, but he struggled in Advanced A ball, where admittedly he was younger than the competition, but Clayton Tanner dominated the league at age 21, 3.17 ERA, 2.88 K/BB, and I don't think that Tanner has half the potential that Wheeler does.

    To me, Wheeler was a candidate for repeating A-ball in San Jose, which then puts him in line for making the majors for good (not a September call-up, I should clarify) in 2015, at age 25. And a 4.8 BB/9? Matt Cain had some struggles with walks as he rose, but that was in AA and AAA, not Advanced A.

    I think part of the angst is a result of how well he did after the trade. His numbers sure look sweet there. A good part of that, not to denigrate his performance, is a result of the change in leagues, from hitter's paradise California League (.277/.349/.430/.779 average, 5.58 RA average, 4.90 ERA) to the relative frigid Florida State League (.262/.331/.386/.716, 4.38 RA average, 3.94 ERA), which right away accounts for a 1 run drop in ERA for him.

    Put on top of that hitters with no or little scouting report on how to approach and attack him, Wheeler had a huge advantage over the hitters in the FSL.

    I'll be convinced that it was a mistake to trade him once he reaches ace status in the majors, I'll believe it when I see it. Though I suppose if he continues doing great in 2012, relative to the league, then I might budge. And I do realize that this is just my opinion and, yes, I have never seen him pitch, but that doesn't make my points above any less valid.

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  33. Jerome Williams just signed with Angels, Schmaker closing in on 2 year deal with Cards, per MLB Trade Rumors

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