Hot Stove Update: Baggs Drops A Hand Grenade

Andy Baggerly, the Giants beat writer for the San Jose Mercury News, dropped a small hand grenade into the Matt Cain contract negotiations yesterday that probably deserves some comment. In terms of impact, it was probably closer in payload to a cherry bomb or M80, but it's a bit disquieting, nonetheless.

Apparently what was heretofore known to Matt Cain and his agent and possibly a few other people was that the Giants last original extension offer to Cainer included a 3'rd year, 2013, at $16 M. The Giants pulled it off the table at the last minute and signed him to a 2 year extension. Now Baggs is reporting, without naming his sources, that the reason for the Giants change of heart was an X-ray or scan of some sort that showed "loose bodies" in his elbow. Now, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere around 80% of all pitchers in the major leagues have "loose bodies" of some sort in their throwing elbow, so that news, by itself, is not exactly earthshaking. What's a bit disconcerting is that the Giants were apparently concerned enough about it to yank an already agreed to year on a contract. What's also a bit disconcerting is that this was apparently news to Cain's agent who learned of it when he was asked to comment, saying he wondered why the offer was changed at the last minute. Couple that with the "twinge" Cainer felt in spring training last year, and you start to wonder how solid the Giants commitment to extending Cain really is. You also have to wonder who released this information to Baggs and what their motivation for doing so was. Cain, himself, did not respond to requests for comment vis Twitter. Twitter? Oh man, how times have changed!

Now, Andy Baggerly has every right and duty to report information he gathers as a beat reporter for the Giants. He seems like a guy who would hold himself to a high standard of reliability in terms of what sources he uses to gather and verify his information. In this case, the news has the potential to impact both Cain and the Giants, mostly in negative ways, so I hope Baggs did his due diligence on this one. For starters, the breach in confidentiality and the apparent withholding of information from the player has the potential to inject some negative feelings into the negotiations. At least initially, Cain's agent insists that they are looking to the future and will not let the past influence that, much easier to say than do. The information also potentially depresses Cain's value on the open market as well as depressing his trade value should the Giants end up deciding they can't get him re-signed. It's a 2 edged sword if not more.

There is a lot of hand wringing currently going on around the internet about the Giants "window of opportunity", a term that has almost begun to take on a life of it's own as it has morphed from a theoretical possibility to a metaphysical certainty, an internet meme if you will. The thinking goes that the Giants have this great pitching staff that will only stay together for a limited time, therefore they need to throw payroll constraints to the wind in order to bring in star offensive players to win while this "window" remains open. Much of that angst seems to be centered around the idea that Cain and Timmy are becoming so disgusted with the lack of run support they will bolt for free agency no matter how much the Giants offer. Stories like this tend to add fuel to that fire.

There certainly is something to be said for the "window of opportunity" theory. Billy Beane has been trying to find that window now for at least 10 years and keeps putting if off into the future. Sports history in general and Major League Baseball in particular is filled with dynasties that rise and fall, and many more others that never come to fruition. I have maintained that the Giants are not facing this type of "window". Their talent core is young, they have a strong farm system, they have a strong scouting department with excellent drafting strategy. Their skills at talent acquisition remain strong.

While it is much easier to envision an era of Giants dominance with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum locked up in long term contracts, It is by no means essential to the process. Big dollar, long term contracts can actually be a hinderence to sustained organizatonal success. Long term contracts given to homegrown players can go just as bad as the same contracts given to free agents from outside the organization. Right now, the Giants have a core of 5 young, homegrown players who look likely to command long term contracts that reach into 9 figures: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey. Yes, they are staggered a bit, but if you are talking contracts of 5 years or longer, there will come a time when they all overlap. Maybe the Yankees can afford 5 simultaneous $20 M/year contracts, but it's hard to imagine other teams being able to sustain that. Then there is the factor that if even one or 2 of those player get injured or have a steep dropoff in performance, the team becomes stuck in a losing situation with no way to re-allocate resources.

At some point, the Giants will likely not be able to keep all 5 of their current young core. That's where things get a bit delicate and you have to wonder if Sabean is savvy enough to play his cards right. For now, he is giving every indication he is all in on extending Cain and Timmy. He'll worry about the other 3 when their time comes. He's publicly identified keeping the pitching intact as his top priority. He has conserved his resources this offseason specifically to make sure that he can use them to take care of his pitchers. Now comes the negotiations. Whether this is information Baggs stumbled on or if somebody leaked it hoping to influence those negotiations, we may never know. It's hard to see it as a positive for any of the parties involved and does not appear to make it more likely that Cainer will agree to an extension.

At any point where it becomes an existential certainty that any of the core players are going end up as free agents, the most residual value the Giants can get comes from trading them for young talent that is just entering or about to enter the major league level. That is how you avoid "windows of opportunity" and sustain success in baseball. Of course, that has to be balanced against the chances of winning it all in the present with the almost inevitable risk of losing the players to nothing more than a couple of draft picks.

Buckle your seatbelts folks, it we could be in for some turbulence ahead.