There is an article up on Fake Teams entitled Now Is the Time to Buy on Hanley Ramirez. The thesis of the article is basically that Hanley's poor season was due to a low BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) and his low BABIP was due to bad luck, therefore he is lkely to bounce back to his normal awesome self next season. Since his Average Draft Position has dropped considerably from his previous #1 or #2 overall, he is now undervalued and should be drafted aggressively.
This thesis is a classic example of how a superficial understanding of BABIP can lead to misleading and even inaccurate conclusions. First of all, Hanley Ramirez only had 385 Plate Appearances last season, so he obviously had more problems than just a low BABIP, but let's just assume that the injury was an isolated incident that he will be fully recovered from by the start of next season. Is it safe to assume that his low BABIP was due entirely to bad luck and the Baseball Gods will smile on him once again in 2012? Let's take a closer look at some statistics that are readily available which might shed some light on the subject:
Here are Hanley's BABIP's starting in 2006: .343, .353, .329, .379, .327, .275! Aha! Luck, you say! Here's a couple more to consider:
1. GB/FB ratios from 2006: 0.81, 0.67, 0.85, 0.64, 1.01!, 1.08!
2. Line Drive % from 2006: 19%, 21%, 19%, 22%, 20%, 16%!
First, the significant jump in GB% reduces opportunities for HR's and XBH's. This jump occured in 2010. Second, his LD% took a dive in 2011 taking away opportunity for both singles and XBH's. So, there is a reason besides luck for Hanley's poor BABIP afterall: HE DIDN'T HIT THE BALL AS HARD!
There may be reasons why he didn't hit the ball as hard:
1. The most obvious reason for him not hitting the ball as hard is injury. If you are injured, you may not be able to swing as hard, or elevate sinking pitches as well, or the swing may be altered in some other way.
2. Pitchers may have figured out something about him and are pitching him differently. This hypothesis could be studied through PitchFx, but would be laborious and time consuming.
3. Off field issues such as deconditioning of substance use. As far was I know, Hanley hasn't failed any drug tests. He has definitely had attitude issues that were evident on the field.
4. Development of a mechanical flaw in the swing.
Hanley Ramirez definitely may bounce back next season. He is obviously a great athlete who should be entering the prime of his career. If his injury is fully healed, if the new stadium and some new teammates improve his mood and attitude, if he readjusts to any adjustments opposing pitchers may have made, yeah, he's a great candidate for a bounceback season. Make no mistake, though. Hanley Ramirez' poor season in 2011 was most likely NOT due to bad luck, well, unless you consider injuries bad luck.
Attributing changes in BABIP to luck as the first option, stops the mind from asking further questions and digging for reasons behind the reasons. If a player experiences a significant change in BABIP over a full season, a search for underlying causes should be undertaken and the change in BABIP should be attributed to luck only if that search fails to turn up likely explanations.
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When pushed I would call Hanley lazy, and I'd add he just doesn't have much heart. Just like a certain other top SS on the market right now. Huge talent though, and a very interesting analysis. I will not be drafting high on Hanley next year, although I'd definitely grab him if he fell to the third round. I got Tulo with the 5th pick in my league draft last year (Hanley went 2), I wasn't hugely happy with the position scarcity strategy. Big numbers with less risk at other positions for sure.
ReplyDeleteI know this is pretty much a numbers site. Analysis of performance in order to pull meaning. Make predictions. And that was a great case in point about premature conclusions regarding BABIP.
ReplyDeleteBut, I have no other thought about Hanley than May 17, 2010.
I'll give the link. But you all know what I'm talking about.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8077975
I realize that his amazing talent results in offensive numbers that makes teams win. But I would want nothing to do with him on my team. Ever. Fantasy. Reality. No matter.
Speaking of.....looks like the Marlins are going to test the theory that clubhouse and on-field "chemistry" are important. Between Hanley, Jose Reyes and LoMo, they are going to be either a great team or a train wreck.
ReplyDeleteRamirez is going to be requested to modify jobs, probably to third platform. How that performs with Hanley could well figure out the course of the Marlins business for these next few decades.
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