As Giants fans are all too aware, the Florida Marlins have had a boom and bust business model ever since they became a franchise. They splurge on high priced free agents, put together a run to a championship followed by the inevitable fire sale and years of last place finishes. It looks like they are up to their old tricks again.
Last night it was widely reported that the Marlins have agreed to terms Jose Reyes on a 6 year/$106 M deal. This is actually a very reasonable deal for a player of Reyes caliber. Compared to Jayson Werth's contract signed with the Nationals last year, it's an absolute steal. Reyes has been a consistent 6 WAR player when fully healthy. He missed almost all of one season to injury out of the last 6 and still managed to put up a 0.8 WAR in just 36 games. Hampered by injuries in 2010, he still put up a 3 WAR season. Current market value/WAR right now is right around $5M, so you can see that short of an catastrophic injury that takes him out for a full season, the value is more than there. I believe that of the "big 3" free agents from this year, Reyes has the best chance of delivering full value over the course of his contract.
The signing sets up some drama for the Marlins. Their biggest star, Hanley Ramirez has not been a happy camper and this will force him off shortstop. Early indications are Hanley will play 3B and has agreed to the move, but stay tuned. Assuming everything falls into place, the Marlins now have one of the more dynamic lineups in the game anchored by Reyes and Ramirez and also including Mike Stanton, one of the best young power hitters in the game as well as Logan Morrison, assuming he can keep his mouth and Twitter from getting him in trouble with the owner. Gaby Sanchez is no slouch at 1B either. The Marlins still have issues with their pitching, but seem to be intent on addressing that with the rumored signing of Heath Bell. They probably need to add a starter or two if they are going to make a serious run in 2012. While there are still pieces that need to fit together, the basic value the Marlins get from Reyes is solid.
Losing Reyes has to be a big blow to Mets fans. How can a team based in New York with a state of the art stadium not hang onto a lynchpin like Reyes. Shortstop is not like first base or any other position. You can't just go out and find a cheaper replacement that will come close to Reyes' production. The Mets now have to join the scrum fighting over the dregs of the shortstop bargain bin or rush Jordany Valdespin to the majors before he is really ready.
Reyes would have been a perfect fit for the Giants too. Much as I like Brandon Crawford, he will never be anywhere near Jose Reyes' production level, nor is it likely any of the Giants current SS prospects will either. Signing Reyes, would have not just takne care of the position for years to come, but given them a huge advantage at the position taking pressure off other positions for offensive production.
Much as I think Reyes would have been a bargain, I understand the Giants are in a position where they will have to spend similar money,and more to keep their excellent core of young talent intact, a goal I certainly support. Jose Reyes and the Giants and Mets shortstop situations do point up the need for organizations to be constantly searching for young shortstop talent, not just to find that one big star, but to keep a flow of talent coming as hedge to what just happened to the Mets.
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Its come out the Mets lost 70MM last year. I can only imagine what the Doyers might have lost if they came clean with the various 24 entities. The key to the Reyes contract for the Marlins is that no-trade clause. Its not there. Loria can blow it up whenever he wants, as usual.
ReplyDeleteI'd say on paper its a pretty good signing, his cost has been knocked down by the injury risk to where he could provide value. Maybe FLA is good for his hammys, and he can stay relatively healthy. I'm glad the Giants had no interest though. I predict a steep regression coming and I can't get past the feeling he's a selfish player with no heart. You are completely right this is going to be interesting with LoMo, Hanley and Reyes, a ton of talent. I predict it becomes a mess, and I'm definitely rooting for it to be a mess. The Marlins were up there after their 2 Wild Card titles through us, moved to top 3 on the list since Cousins brought his bush league to the bay.
Great analysis, as usual, DrB!
ReplyDeleteI basically agree with everything, but like Shankbone is happy not to take on this risk. While it would have greatly improved the Giants, I think it would risk our ability to keep our young core of players long-term, as well as risk being a big sinkhole in our payroll, right when we are about to drop the two remaining ones (Rowand and Zito).
Marlins just don't get the power of pitching with their moves so far, but it's early. Maybe they are doing this simply to make a lot of noise in the market. Plus there is the potential that they could now flip Hanley to another team for that pitching that they need. Because admittedly, the best talent on the market right now is hitting, so they could load up on that then trade off some of their young hitters for the starting pitching they need.
I also hope it becomes a mess, for the same reasons, but he's been pretty good for the most part with his moves, so I tip my cap off to him for that by saying that I'll be scared for the next few seasons until he does blow them up again, but if he can draw people out big time with these moves finally (he did get the stadium built for him afterall), he could switch gears to try to keep the team going strong long-term instead of trashing the team again.
I know they are moving to a new ballpark and expect more fans/income but how can they justify adding and a 18 million/year player when their entire payroll last year was 58 million. I did see that he does not have a no trade clause so maybe they are going to flip him after a few years. Add this with the 9 million they are going to spend on Heath Bell and this is a serious raise in payroll. This could be a disaster if either of these players get hurt. I guess it is better them than us. We have our own issues with payroll (Rowand,Zito,Huff). I hear that the Astros and Cubs are trying to dump Soriano and Lee respectively. I think either one of those guys could seriously help our team. Soriano is a pretty decent hitter with some pop and Lee has some pop with a decent OBP throughout his career. Both teams would have to pay most of the contracts but it could be interesting if the Cubs would pay 35-40 million of Soriano's contract. He is owed 54 million through 2014. If we could get him for say 14-18 million for 2012 - 2014 that wouldn't be such a bad deal. That would be like 6 million/year. Both players are not the best fielders but the offense would be nice.
ReplyDeleteFrom the opening day of winter meetings it looks like the Giants are sticking to a hard line of 1 year deals. That indicates to me they really like the young guys coming up, not just Belt and Crawford but the Fresno bound guys as well.
ReplyDeleteDrB you wrote liking a bench (I like it too) of CStew, Pill, Fonty, Ross and DeRosa. Looks like Ross is becoming an even longer shot, as he really wants multi-year and will go to a better offensive park on a one-year. As Hector Sanchez tears up the VZ league, maybe he gets a couple months in Fresno with CStew as the placeholder and then they bring him up. I bet they do bring back Fonty but I just keep looking at Boston with Larwie and Scutaro and wonder if Sabey Sabes can't throw some bullpen arms and Fonty or Keppinger, to improve that way. They are going to meet with 4-5 teams about trades, I'm sure because they don't really want to go 2 years with Hairston/Gonzo and Ross/other OFs.
Definitely going to be some wacky rumors this week, but I think its going to be pretty low profile for Los Gigantes. They are lowballing all these vet types. The latest rumor is Ryan Ludwick, who is pretty uninspiring but on a 1 year deal is a classic "does he have anything left in the tank" move.
Only other thing of note is Bochy saying definitely that Huff will play left field. Schierholtz continues to get the pretty strong support with the caveat of staying healthy and performing (will it be the kiss of death?). Looks like Belt/Pill at 1st, which I like a lot, even though Huff has been pretty good at defense, those guys are both better.
This is going to be fun. I hope Huff really is working out like crazy. Much better plan than last year.
Very intriguing stuff Dr. B, sorry about my last post and the jab but I thought it was slightly amusing. Being that Hanley is one of my favorite players, I would be thrilled if the Giants could pull off a trade to get him even if it cost us the Panda.
ReplyDeleteThe advantage to having a SS who can leadoff or bat 3rd in your lineup is like the advantage we have with Posey at Catcher. Few teams benefit from offense at C or SS and we would be getting both.
Losing the Panda would be rough but it would open up 3B to FA's or possibly Hanley or Posey in a few years. We would still be at least one FA bat away from league average but in 2013 we could look forward to Brown leading off and Hanley-Posey at 3 & 4 in the lineup. The rest of the lineup should be pretty easy to put together after taking care of the 3 most important spots.
hairston to the bums for 2 years...good, i still get to hate him
ReplyDeletebarmes and bloomquist are gone too...giants running out of options for a righty utility guy
cuddyer is basically pricing himself out of giants market...he wants 3 years, 30 mil
btw...if huff comes into camp like he did last season, he wont last a game in lf
ReplyDeletei prefer belt in left and fatty huff at first, platooning with pill
Bacci - love the Hairston comment. I was trying to convince myself it was OK to have a Hairston. I love the Doyers signings - hopefully Agent Ned backloads all these mediocre guys so his successor has a headache sorting through it. (I'm OK with 1 or maybe 2 soft comfy vets, but agent Ned has 2 pitchers, 3 MIs and Juan Rivera on the payroll the past 2 weeks, vetty and mediocre all. That is a good Vlad quote argument right there, unlike Gints naysayers this year with our lefties)
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of lefties, Baggs confirms that the Gints were responding to market demand with Affeldt, not suddenly realizing their payroll wasn't in order, like some smart ass Gints bloggers were throwing out.
I'll go the opposite. If Huff comes in like 2010 as was quoted in a funny way with 70s disney shows today on Baggs, we are going to be just fine. Cuddyer is a weird case. I want 3/33 or whatever. I'm not getting it? OK, back to Minny, quick! Drunk Sailor Amaro is doubling down some more chasing Amaris Ramirez. I really don't understand how people complain about Sabean with Coletti and Amaro on the loose. Best thing for me is the very apparent 1 year max demand coming from our greybeards.
I'm telling you, trade with the Bosox for Lowrie or Scutaro. We're getting a decent fielding right handed hitter who can sort of hit, hell or high water, and its going to be 1 year team controlled. Unless we get desperate. But not to worry, Theriot will be non-tendered in a week...
Pato,
ReplyDeleteGlad you're coming here and reading. Hope to have you join in the conversations.
Shank - True Blue LA took a look at the contracts; apparently it's 16 mil this year and 26 next year. As you said, very backloaded.
ReplyDelete