Gary Brown, OF. 6'1", 190 lbs. BD: 9/28/1988. B-R, T-R.
High A: .336/.407/.519, 34 2B, 13 3B, 14 HR, 53 SB, 19 CS.
AFL: .220/.278/.300 in 47 AB.
In his first full professional season, Gary Brown lived up to his first round draft pick pedigree, not only hitting for average and stealing a lot of bases, but also showing he can take a walk and not depend on BABIP to get on base. Although he probably won't ever hit a lot of HR"s he showed impressive extra-base power with 61 XBH's out of 188 hits and he did reach double digits in all 3 XBH categories. He struggled in the AFL but as hampered by a persistant respiratory virus and possibly by the same fatigue from a long season that Buster Posey experienced in 2009. Since he got sick in the desert, there was some concern that he might have contracted Valley Fever, but the Giants issued a statement specifically saying it was not Valley Fever.
The Giants have come under some criticism this offseason for not promoting Brown aggressively to AA. I have to admit I'm not sure what came first, the chicken or egg, but Brown did go into a rather severe month long slump in June just about the time teammates Heath Hembree and Chris Dominguez were promoted. He recovered nicely in July and tore it up down the stretch in August. I might have liked to see an August promotion to AA, but in light of the fatigue issue in the fall, it's probably better they didn't ask more of him than they did.
In his post-season presser, Sabes strongly suggested that the Giants won't have Brown skip AA like they did Buster Posey and for all practical purposes, Brandon Belt. He will likely start the season in Richmond which is always a challenge for Giants hitting prospects. The mid-season slump and uncertainty about how he will fare in AA probably limit Brown to B+ prospect status. A strong season in 2012 would almost surely vault him into elite prospect status. We could see a September callup, although 40 man roster considerations may play a role in that determination. 2013 would be the earliest to expect him to arrive permanently on the MLB scene.
I do see Brown as the Giants CF of the future. I read recently that the Mets wanted Brown in the trade for Beltran and the Giants definitely preferred to part with Zack Wheeler, so that tells you something about how highly the Giants valued Brown. He's an excellent fielder in CF covering a tremendous amount of ground. The arm is rated slightly above average but what he lacks in arm strength he makes up for in accuracy and decision making. CF is not usually a big position for assists but Brown had several from there in 2011. As for things to improve on, he needs to show he can avoid prolonged slumps and he could improve his success rate on steals.
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I personnaly think there is a risk to not promoting Brown fast enough. I saw him play last year at San Jose and even a few weeks into his first season he looked extremely bored. He was clearly better then most of the other players on the field and it didn't seem like he had to try very hard to dominate.
ReplyDeleteIt reminded me of the kid in high school who is head and shoulders above the rest of the team and isn't pushed to perform at a higher level so he puts in less effort. Maybe this could explain why he had the month long slump in June, he was probably frustrated with the level of competition and bored/dissapointed that he wasn't promoted late in the year.
I think you can hurt a prospect by leaving them down in A ball just the same as you can hurt a prospect bringing them up too quickly. Brown needs to be challenged and pushed in order to get the most out of him and I don't see the Giants taking that approach. I actually could see them looking at how he stays focused in the lower A levels as a sign of his maturity but they are making a mistake, a guy like him should have to prove himself by performing not by showing patience and maturity.
What I noticed from watching him play one game was it didn't seem like he had to think much while playing, just react and use his god given skills to dominate. I saw him take a bad route to a fly ball coming in before having to sprint straight back to make the play. On the bases he was pretty wreckless as well getting a double out of a ball hit in the hole that he clearly wouldn't have been able to stretch out in AA or AAA. He needs to be challenged and pushed more then he needs to be coddled the way I see it.
Well, Brown will get his challenge this year in Richmond. If he hits>.300 over the first half, he should get a promo to Fresno and the Giants should plan on him being the starting CF in 2013.
ReplyDeleteTo expand further,
ReplyDeleteIf I was running a player development program, and it's probably a good thing I'm not, I would have two times for evaluating players for promotion:
1. Last 2 weeks in May. This would be to evaluate whether players may have been placed too low out of spring training. This would leave over half the season for them to play at the level they should have been placed at in the first place. I would expect relatively few promotions at this point.
2. End of July. This would be to evaluate which prospects are going to be promoted the following year. What are you really going to learn about a prospect and how much are they going to learn in 1 more month at the current level? I would want to give a prospect, like Gary Brown, the opportunity of competing at the higher level for the last month so he could get a feel for the competition at that level and maybe learn some things about himself that he can work on over the winter and following spring training. I would expect fairly wholesale promotions at this time. There may be a problem finding room for everybody at AAA, but there's usually several players at AAA who you know are going to be released over the offseason anyway so releasing them a month early is not going to harm the organization.
I think you have to be careful about reading too much into a single game performance. I saw Brown play in 3 games in 2011. Based on those 3 games, I can't for the life of me see how he hits for any power at all, yet the stats are there that he hit 14 HR's and reportedly hit fairly consistently with gap power. The 3 games I saw were very similar to what is sounds like you saw, it was all about speed. The stats say there is a lot more there than just speed though.
I agree with you that Brown carries himself in a manner that sets him apart from the other players. He looks bigger on the field than he is. The other player I noticed that quality in was Mike Trout of the Angels organization. Brown looks just a bit smaller and Trout will probably have a bit more power, but they are otherwise very similar players who carry themselves on the field in a similar manner. Not arrogant, but knowing they are a cut above the rest of the players out there.
One more comment: Although the practice is decried on a lot of sites, I'd really like to see the Giants be smarter about managing MLB service time and arbitration years. If a player is ready for the majors, then put him there out of spring training and leave him there and get a full seasons worth of production out of him. If he's not ready at the beginning of the season, then wait until he will almost certainly not be a "Super 2" to bring him up. I'm getting a bit tired of seeing Giants homegrown players get expensive before they have to because they were promoted 2-4 weeks before they would lose their "Super 2" status.
ReplyDeleteNice rundown of Brown and his season, DrB.
ReplyDeleteI would like to add a few tidbits. In the interviews I have seen of him, I can say that he's very charismatic, very genuine, very down to earth. He does not take himself seriously in interviews, very good natured. That had me rooting for him from the get-go and each one has affirmed that for me.
I see Pato's point about not advancing enough, but here is what I see. In the post-season interviews and reports I've seen, the Giants seem to be making a point about having Brown get used to failure. That is probably related to the Belt situation where he basically panicked the moment he started failing in the majors, an experience he did not really have in the minors.
And that makes sense, I would rather have Brown learn his lessons in failure in A-ball, where it is easier to recover and move on, than in higher leagues where the slump could become extended and that starts playing with his mind.
I believe players can get into ratholes mentally when they are not hitting, that extended failure would play with their minds. That is why I wanted the team to get the hell out of Norwich and their Dodd Stadium, if you hit the ball like you normally do and it don't do what it normally do, you just naturally try to change things but Dodd is not a place where you can do that and succeed. Richmond has a much more neutral ballpark, which is better for our hitters.
Another issue that Brown was having in A-ball was related to one of the major components of his game which is his ability to steal bases. He was simply not good at it in San Jose early on. He might have been hitting well and was bored by that, but he was not doing well stealing bases, and if he's not doing it at A-ball, he is certainly not going to improve on that by moving to AA.
The way the stats look, he basically was recklessly trying to steal bases early on, piling up a lot of SB and CS, then at some point mid-season it clicked and he damped down his aggressiveness and his SB% went up to a good level, I think it was 80% the last two months.
So it was not like he didn't have anything to learn still at A-ball. He may have been bored but that's also something he's going to need to get used to if he's really that good too. The best players motivate themselves no matter the circumstances. They also play through slumps without changing everything. They also play within their abilities and not do stupid plays (like CS) that cost your team.
I like Brown's batting philosophy. He does not quote Ted Williams, but it is right out of his Science of Hitting. Brown takes what the pitchers in his league is giving him in terms of hitting, and adjusts his batting enough so that he walks enough (plus get HPB, which is an important part of his on-base ability) to have a superior OBP. That is a trait I have seen in his performances from college, Cape Cod, to pros.
Meanwhile, he tries to hit for as much power as he can. Unlike Burriss, he is looking for extra-base power, understanding the value of being able to do that (if you get a double, you don't need to risk stealing 2B plus you can drive in more runs). In his senior year, he had the highest SLG in his league, as well as ISO, and both were among the highs for his conference over the prior 6-7 seasons, even higher than what Evan Longoria did.
Gary Brown has a big ol chip on his shoulder. I'm a big fan. We need some swagger. I think the Eastern will be a big test and if he passes muster they should get very aggressive with him as you outlined. I don't think people realize just how incredibly fast he is or how good a hitter he is. He hasn't really had to adjust his game yet, the Eastern and MLB are the tests.
ReplyDeleteSabean has never been a very good rule manipulator. It would definitely be nice to have a few of the sloppy practices tightened up. The Super 2 is the biggest one for me. Some of the 40 man practices as well as the bizarre promotions such as Hector Sanchez definitely don't follow a precise logic.
I would also like to see the Giants get smarter about top prospect promotions. In Lincecum's case, the team was not ready to compete yet anyway, so waiting a week so that he's not super-2 would have saved them maybe $4-6M. Posey looks like he might be on the cusp of being super-2, especially after the new CBA made it easier to be super-2 (I assume that applies to him now, right?), but the team was trying to win and be competitive, so I was OK with that, we needed offense. Meanwhile, they waited to bring up Bumgarner, so he won't be super-2.
ReplyDeleteBelt, I was OK with their handling there too. They wanted to check out the ride so they brought him up since there was a spot open. I get that. But once he struggled, they sent him down. I'm not sure where he is in service time, but now that the meter isn't running, unless he absolutely is a monster in spring, he should sit in the minors, learn the art of failure, until he's ready. That should halt his service time enough so that he's not super-2.
However, from what I recall, the new CBA is supposedly structured so that teams cannot manipulate service time like before to avoid super-2 status. So I'm not sure if the Giants can get smarter about super-2 handling. Anybody know how the new CBA works with regards to super-2 status?
Well, the new CBA is very complicated and we keep hearing new caveats all the time, but I was under the impression "Super 2" works the same way except it's a higher percentage of players so teams would have to keep their prospects down on the farm a lot longer to circumvent it.
ReplyDeleteOGC - Super 2 info
ReplyDeleteFrom a Grantland article: Weiner noted that more players will now become eligible for arbitration sooner, with the Super 2 threshold rising to 22 percent of third-year players who will now come up for arbitration (it was previously 17 percent).
I really like Brown and also Panik because I think they are very similar players when it comes to their approach at the plate. I thought it was incredibly smart of Sabes to go after guys who were good contact hitters that have potential to be great speed guys like Brown or the potential to gain power as their career progresses like Panik.
ReplyDeleteBrown in the game I saw him actually hit a HR in his first at bat, fastball inner half of the plate that he turned on and launched out to left center. I think everyones comments are spot on, I don't want them to rush him through the system ala Belt and Posey but I also would prefer they gave him a few more challenges other then whether he can hit consistantly throughout the year against the Modesto Nuts. Also, I may be slightly off here but my impression of A ball with the San Jose Giants is that most of the prospects are 18-20 year olds as opposed to 22-24 year olds like Brown who have college experience. I may be way off there but it seems like the majority of the kids are young and the college prospects find their ways to other levels faster especially when they are as talented as Brown. Had he been drafted out of high school I could totally see them leaving him in San Jose all year last year.
On a side note, wouldn't it be easier if Dr. B, Shankbone, OGC, and I just got together once a week to discuss the offseason and put it on a podcast or something? I can give a good emotional Giants fan perspective while Shankbone can dig up historical data and give his unique takes while OGC can be the practical voice and Dr. B can moderate and give his in depth knowledge on prospects among other things. Sound good?
Podcast sounds good. I have no idea how to set it up, though.
ReplyDeleteA bit off topic here, but now everybody is denying there is any movement toward the A's moving to SJ. Lew Wolff claims he's heard nothing. Billy Beane says the reason he's selling off the players is there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Peter Magowan says he has the inside dope and he thinks SJ is a pipedream for the A's. Pinky Pete says it ain't gonna happen. Big Lew says it's not on the agenda at the upcoming owners meeting.
The plot thickens!
Pato,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to have to say I think you are maybe underestimating the ages in the Cal League. Tommy Joseph was the second youngest player in the league at age 19. Most of the youngest players are college draftees in their first full season like Brown was. Just a guesstimate, but I'd say the average age in the Cal League is probably about 23 yo. The 18-20 yo are in Low A like Augusta. Even then, 20 yo is not old for the level. I think you're OK up to about age 22 in Low A
Ok, I guess that makes sense but just by looking at the kids from both teams each time I go it seems like they are barely out of high school! I guess my point was that a guy like Brown who is 23 shouldn't have to spend the entire year there if he shows he can hang at that level which he did. Kind of like what you said above, evaluate them end of July and make a move if warrented so they get a taste of the next level. I would have preferred they did that with Brown last year.
ReplyDeleteI think we agree on that. It made no sense for Brownie to tear up the Cal League some more in August. He'd had his slump and proven he could come out of it. I would have liked for him to get a head start on the Eastern League which will be his biggest challenge short of entering MLB.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised that he did not get the bump late in the season as well, but I just read that there was something specific he was still working on. It might have also been as simple as the org not wanting to completely gut the SJ team going into the play-offs.
ReplyDeleteShankbone reminded me of something significant about Brown's speed that hasn't been detailed here yet: even though he is a right-handed hitter, he's so fast that he can match up with the fastest left-handed batters in reaching first base. That's plus, plus, plus speed!
ReplyDeleteAnd I should add that I would have been OK, per DrB's prescription, with Brown getting promoted in August once he got out of his slump.
Though, at that point, would a month in Richmond done much for him? Perhaps they were planning on him to be in the AFL as his challenge test, so they left him alone in SJ, plus that got him into the playoffs too. Of course, his illness blew that AFL test plan out of the water, so the August test would have been better.
Average age in Cal League is roughly 23 YO. Brown was counted as 22 for the season, so he was a little underaged. Plus, if you peruse the hitters with the best OPS, the youngest and vast majority are 22 YO.
Top prospects, though, per Pato's comment, probably follows the guidelines that Pato noted, but I don't view Brown as a Top prospect, just a very good one who can be a good average regular for a team in CF, maybe slightly above average. So maybe borderline top prospect. Brown was considered that by Goldstein in 2011, if I remember the right analyst, he was considered just outside the Top 100, maybe 101st, overall.
I think he'll be more than that eventually, from my viewpoint. I see him as a Pete Rose, better on the whole than any particularly skill that he has. Able to hit for average, OBP, power, plus use his plus speed on the basepaths. Plus provide plus defense in CF, maybe allowing the Giants to keep a range challenged hitter in LF at some point (as much as I love Belt at 1B, Tommy Joseph and maybe Angel Villalona might need to play 1B in the near future, heck Sandoval too)
And for those who don't know me, that optimistic view is not from a homer view, but one from someone has followed MLB prospects deeply for half a decade now, after extensive research work for a keeper league I once belonged to. For example, I was never that enamored with Fred Lewis or John Bowker, but did like Sandoval and Hector Sanchez as they rose. Of course, I also like Ehire Adrianza and Nick Noonan, so no one is perfect. :^)
I should note a nice Gary Brown article that the Chron put up a few days ago: http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-12-23/sports/30549937_1_brandon-belt-prospect-brown-bryce-harper
ReplyDeleteThe article screwed up though, he's only just turned 23 YO.
Also has a little something interesting on Panik's experience in AFL too.
Pato - thanks for thinking of me. I bet I'd be a terrible podcast type of guy, but I definitely enjoy the discussions we have.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't mind Murph giving Gary Brown #22, I'm really sick of it being passed around all the time. Will the Thrill doesn't deserve this. OGC - I've seen those interviews with Brown, he does come off as a guy who doesn't take himself too seriously but has a quiet confidence.
I'll take the counterview on Brown - Look at Crawford's numbers. He tore SJ up, they shipped him off, and he sunk badly in CT. That didn't stop them with Belt of course, but the only guys to tear through the Eastern so far have been Sandoval and Belt. It is a serious proving ground and I think there is a bit of protecting our guys going on. I'm glad they didn't because of the slump coinciding with that time period.
All I can say is, next time you have a drink with Pink Pete, bring a tape recorder, he's putting a memo in his files after getting cocktails and shooting it around? Wow. I think this is nice little rear guard action by the Giants though.
I understand that the G's reserve retired numbers for HOFers, but that is a bunk rule.
ReplyDeleteNo one should EVER wear 22 again for the Giants. I do not understand how the Giants do not see this.
Drb, I'm looking forward to seeing Gary Brown in a SF Giants uni by 2013. I just finished reading the BA scouting report and grades on him: speed -80, defense-70, hitting-60. 80 is the highest grade scouts give, while 50 is considered major league average. It mentioned that his SB % improved after he made a tweak in his sliding mechanics and they'd like him to work on his bunting skills.
ReplyDeleteBased on the scouting reports alone, I see Brown as a player that will create alot of excitement with his speed and defensive ability playing in a spacious ballpark like AT&T. Maybe he can be the best leadoff hitter on the Giants since dare I say Brett Butler.. I remember watching another speedster play AAA ball back in the 80's for the Hawaii Islanders by the name of Alan Wiggins, who went on to have a decent MLB career with the Padres and Orioles. Wiggins hit 0 hrs but stole 73 bases the year I saw him and he was worth the price of admission alone.. Our radio announcer Les Keiter nicknamed him "Mr Excitement"
LG
Hey LG,
ReplyDeleteDid CSU Fullerton by any chance make it over there while Brown was in college? I know you got a chance to see Ricky Oropesa play. Just wondering about Brownie.
Shankbone,
ReplyDeleteI just almost died laughing at your take on Peter the Pink. OMG! Now THAT's funny!
Shankbone, MLBTradeRumors is trying to flush your dreams of an extension for Timmy down the toilet. Sounds like they are still very far apart on years and money which is discouraging for several reasons. The 1 and 2 year contracts tend to hurt the club more short term because per year they are typically larger and if he goes to Arb he is handcuffing Sabes because he can't plan his budget when he doesn't know how much his best player is going to cost. I really hope this is just good negotiating on Timmy's part and eventually he will sign but if I had to bet I think he is leaving first chance he gets.
ReplyDeleteDrb, no I didn't have the pleasure of watching Brown play in college because Hawaii played at Fullerton in 2010 I think, but the games were on radio. The brodcaster brought up that Brown was an impact player in college because of his speed and hitting ablility. I'm excited reading his scouting report because when was the last time the Giants had a player coming up with Brown's skills? I know he hasn't proven himself in the high minors yet, but a scouting report I read says he can make the adjustments.. I see that St Mary's has 2 players (RHP&3rd baseman)in the BA top 100 college draft prospects like you mentioned earlier.. Thanks, it'll make the St Mary's-Hawaii series here more interesting to watch knowing the other team has good players.
ReplyDeleteLG
Pato - Looks like Jon Heyman trolling again to me.
ReplyDeleteCons: Definitely looks like Timmy will test market and/or exert maximum market. Baggs has written about other GMs expecting the Giants have to part with one of Timmy/Cain. Definitely a handcuff as far as even working out the buyout of 2 arb years when 25MM plus is on the line.
Pros: Timmy is no idiot, he knows he's worshipped here, and has had huge success here. Brian Sabean is an emotional guy with a big rep as a loyalty first. You think he doesn't want to keep the guy who won him a ring? Saved his job by drafting him? And finally, silver tongue Baer, for what its worth, laid it down that they have 3 chances to sign him and that's their intention.
I'd put it at 50-50. And yeah, I'm the irrational guy who says beat the Zito deal for both, damn the torpedoes. I'd put them signing one or the other at 80-20. They should play Devil Ray ball right now and sign up MadBum for 25-35MM and as many years as they can get.
That said, if the extension with Cain isn't coming, we have to trade him. My favorite player. Bummed as hell about that. You can't just get 2 draft picks for those guys, you have to get cherry picked prospects. Pins and needles for the next 3 months. I'm pretty sure Cain signed both his contracts in March, anybody remember?
ReplyDeleteBefore we get all panicky about Timmy, remember 2 years ago he agreed to a 2 year deal in the lobby of the courthouse while they were waiting to go into the arbitration hearing. Of course they are far apart now! They are still far away from that hearing!
ReplyDeleteAnd with a flick of a pen, Boof Bonser is back in the fold!
ReplyDeleteProbably too much to hope for another Vogey. If Boof's elbow had been bugging him for awhile, he could conceivably find more velocity after his TJ.
ReplyDeleteThe main problem that I see is that this is being viewed by fan perspective, not a business one. Negotiations like this takes a LOT of time. Neither side wants to give in early or they will feel like they could have gotten a better deal. Particularly from the player side, why is he paying millions of dollars to the agent if they sign so fast?
ReplyDeleteIt is not unusual to be so far apart early on. The player side will ask for the moon, the team side will be more practical, but not quite fair, because if you start off fair, it will not seem like you gave up anything to the players side. As the two sides get closer, things will meet in the middle.
Heyman did not tweet anything that was not known already, he probably was desperate to tweet something, and threw inhis thoughts, speculations, crediting them to "rumors".
Fans just need to be patient with the process.