Thursday, December 8, 2011

Hot Stove Update: Angels Jump Out of the Weeds to Grab Pujols

You had to figure that the Angels were lying in the weeds for Albert Pujols. There's always a team out there that surprises everybody with a massive free agent signing. More often than not, it's the Angels. What is somewhat shocking, if you believe the stories, is how fast it all went down after over a year of dancing around with the Cardinals and a month of the Marlins throwing dust in the air. Apparently the Angels made just one offer....yesterday! Even they expected Pujols and his agent to ruminate on the offer a few days and get back to them. Instead, they got a phone call this morning saying Pujols had ACCEPTED THE OFFER! Bam! Done deal!

It seems Pujols had come to the feeling that the Cardinals organization was taking him for granted. Maybe they were a bit too quick and too enthusiastic about re-signing Matt Holiday. Maybe their offers lacked an air of sincerity. As for the Marlins, it was pretty easy to see through what THEY are all about when they were unwilling to include a no-trade clause in the contract. I mean, you don't sign Albert Pujols to a 10 year contract unless you intend that he's going to retire with your uniform on his back, and clearly that is not what the Marlins had in mind.

It's also pretty easy to see what Arte Moreno is doing here. His game plan is to put as much of his brand on the LA market as he can before the Dodgers get a new owner and start signing these kinds of contracts right and left. I mean, do you have any doubt that if Magic Johnson has anything to say about it, the Dodgers will be building their team around the superstar model? It's now pretty clear why Tony Reagins got canned in Anaheim. It's not because Mike Scioscia didn't like him. It's not because he made a horrible trade for Vernon Wells. It's not even because he traded away Mike Napoli. It's because he failed to sign Adrian Beltre! I remember reading somewhere that Arte Moreno was annoyed that Beltre was allowed to slip away to the Rangers after a long, public courtship by the Angels. It's pretty clear now that Moreno had Pujols in his sights and simply didn't trust Reagins to get the job done.

What's hard to see is how Jerry DiPoto just woke up yesterday morning and said to himself, "now what should I do with myself today? Hey, I know! I think I'll make Albert Pujols an offer." The Angels had to have had Pujols in their sites all along. Maybe even for more than a year! This is not the first time the Angels have pulled a deal like this. They had to have had a game plan and been monitoring the situation very closely. In the end, I'm betting it was the simple no muss, no fuss sincerity of the offer that appealed to Albert Pujols: 10 years, $250 M, no trade clause, simple, nice round numbers, elegant, with not a hint of hesitation or insincerity.

As free agents go, Albert Pujols is a blue chip as they come. Right now, it's pretty hard to argue that he isn't worth every penny of $25 M/year. Even in an off year for him in 2011, he put up 5.1 WAR, which is worth right about $25 M. The problem is that Pujols is 32 years old come January, and that's if you are not a Pujols "birther". The contract is for 10 years. There might be someone out there who thinks Albert Pujols will still be putting up 5 WAR seasons at age 40, but I know I'm not one of them. To the sharp eyed observer, evidence of the decline is already there: BA's over the last 4 seasons- .357, .327, .312, .299. OBP's- .462, .443, .414, .366. SLG%- .653, .658, .596, .541. WAR- 9.0, 9.1, 7.5, 5.1. After 7 consecutive season in which his lowest WAR was 8.2, he has had 2 consecutive regressions. Gotta wonder, as he enter his mid-30's, if maybe he has already entered the downward phase of his career. This contract was destined to end badly based on length and age alone. If Pujols has already started the downhill slide, it could easily end up almost Zitonian in dreadfulness. Of course, that's not a problem for me since it's the Angels. On the other hand, bad contracts don't seem to be the hinderence to the Angels that they are to some teams.

Almost lost in the hubub of the Pujols signing, the Angels also snatched up CJ Wilson to a $77 M contract. Wilson is no better than the # 3 starter for the Angels, maybe #4, but signing him ripped the heart out of the hated Rangers rotation, and I'm sure that was a motivating factor too. By acquiring Joe Nathan, the Rangers freed up Neftali Feliz to move to the rotation. I'm not convinced that Feliz will thrive in that role. Their rotation is now Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Feliz and a couple of stiffs. Maybe Martin Perez is almost ready, but you sure can't tell it from his stats. The problem for the Rangers is they have their own window of opportunity that may not stay open long and the cupboard for free agent pitchers is now officially bare.

I'll say it one more time: The Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!

23 comments:

  1. Not that I wanted the Giants to spend 25 million on a FA, it is the management that keeps talking about how they cannot afford it. Why are the Angels able to do it? The Angel's ticket prices are cheaper and even on sellouts it looks empty. Sellouts for the Giants look jammed pack. The market for Fielder looks like it is shrinking because I hear reports that he may only get a 5 or 6 year deal. There is no reason that the Giants couldn't orchestrate a nice back loaded deal to land someone to fill the cove full of baseballs. I am not saying they should but I am tired of ownership saying they can't. Boras actually said some truth the other day when he said Fielder would be the last power FA bat over the next few years.

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  2. doc

    aint about being a "birther" the dr is just not good at keeping records and its amazing how many players from the dr end up being a bit older than their "official" records state

    as for the giants...there is a reason why the giants were hot to get cain and timmy locked up before the winter meetings...and his name is cj wilson....the marlins offered the guy a 99 mil deal (of course, with the infamous loria fire sale trade clause embedded)

    he took a 77 mil deal....think that timmy and cain would not be worth 150 mil on the open market?

    neither is gonna sign a long term...and are due to get PAID...in arbitration

    giants are screwed

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  3. I think there are a number of factors there why the Angels can spend more.

    According to Forbes, you are right, in 2010, average ticket price was $22 for Angels, $26 for Giants, so the Giants get $107M from gate receipts, Angels only $79M. However, in terms of total revenues, they were almost equal, $230M for Giants, $222M for Angels. They spent $136M on players in 2010, vs. $114M for the Giants, but it would be here that I note that the Giants spend an extra $20M per year on a beautiful stadium by the Bay, whereas the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim snookered a stadium of their unsuspecting city.

    They are also running more leaner, making an operating profit of only $11.8M while the Giants had $29.9M in 2010 (which is a reflection of the fact that a lot of revenues flowed in for the playoffs and World Series and the team did not have any big expenses to pay for; they had made less money in prior years).

    Of course, it helps a lot that the Angel's owner owns the team alone, and at $1B in net worth, spending an extra $10M on the team's payroll would only take away 1% of his net worth. At that rate, he could keep it up for 100 years. Or $20M for 50 years. He's not worried about making a profit (though with baseball's byzantine accounting rules, he's probably still getting some positive cash flow).

    Meanwhile, the Giants have, like, 30-40-50 owners, who, it seems, have been penny pinching forever, complaining when they have to pay into the team anything. That is why Neukom was buying out the whiners over the years and amassed a large percentage of the team. He ran the team as if he owned it as a fan, like Moreno did. Now the team is run like a business.

    Then again, the rumors leaked was that Neukom wanted $10M as his salary, and if true, I'm glad he was pushed out. No reason the CEO of the Giants need to be paid that much.

    Ultimately, the Angels can do it because there is one person running the team and he can make any damn decision he wants, whereas the Giants are essentially run by a committee of owners. There are plenty of billionaires in the Bay Area, I wish one of them would buy out most of the team and be like Arte, heck, just be like Neukom!

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  4. I am not worried about Cain leaving, though I don't expect any substantial home discount.

    He's a Giants, through and through. I read that he never had a team that he identified with when he was young, so this is his first team in his heart. You will always have a soft spot for your first team (and usually only team, look at Pat Burrell, even Carney Lansford wanted to experience that).

    Plus, he's one of the few Giants players to actually live in SF year round. How many Giants do that one?

    And he married a local woman and now raising his little girl here. Would be hard to pull his wife away from the area she grew up in and where her family (his daughter's relatives) are.

    I think both sides are motivated enough to get it done, it is just a matter of sitting down and going through the process, probably in spring.

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  5. Don't know about the estimates, but the Giants need to send in personal charming Bobby Evans and leave Sabean way the hell away from any efforts. They need to get serious, and go all out. Don't lowball, get as close as you can and leave some room to go over. 6/110 for initial offer, then go to 7/140. Do it now, put the press on, make them feel appreciated. That's what I take away from Pujols. What a disaster for the Cards. Who cares about the back end.

    I'm pretty bummed watching a real owner start throwing money. Don't want to go too far down that road, but Moreno had a plan and he rolled. Great summary DrB.

    I think Texas is all over Beltran as the smoke clears. I already thought they'd sneak in because of Hamilton and Cruz always being injured at some point. With the arms race on, they'll scoop him up for 3/45 or a little more.

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  6. OGC - just like with MadBum negotiations haven't been smooth with Cain either. Baggs: This newspaper has learned that when the Giants extended Cain's contract back in the spring of 2010, the original agreement called for a $16 million salary in 2013. The club yanked the final year off the table at the last instant, spooked by loose bodies that showed up in a scan of Cain's right elbow.

    Penny smart pound foolish. They'd better wake up and look at the market and make a real plan. Telling Timmy they want to buy out his first 2 years of FA is a horrible way to start negotiating. This is a serious problem.

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  7. I agree Shank. Giants need to pony up some cash and write checks to Cainer and Timmy like big boys. The guy is going to make 20 mil in arbitration, so anything less than 20 per is bush.

    Timmy - 7years/160mil
    Cainer - 6 years / 110mil

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  8. Look if you can afford to be burned by a few long-term mega deals every now and then, then hell yes (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels), go for it. What's a bad Wells contract or two. Cost of doing business. Remember it's a game about winning (who has the most rings) to these guys, not about the money.

    Now the Giants aren't in this class, never will be. The Zito/Rowand burnt bucks, just hurt too much. And the Giants are, wisely I think, not giving out mega deals to free agents. Save the mega deals for keeping your proven in-house talent.

    But that does not excuse the fabricated PR B.S. of the $130MM hard budget - while selling out the ballpark, signing a new and very lucrative TV contract, WS merchandise sales, etc. Bottom line, the Giants saw their franchise grow in asset value a minimum of $100MM in the last two years.

    So please no more Burriss or bust talk. No more hoping Posey can play 120+ games in the squat, without squat to back him up. BTW, interesting note from Baggs that Whiteside was injured all the way back in 2011 Spring training - and they still trotted him out there every day, WTF? Sometimes ya got to spend the money to keep the pony. Please don't screw this up Giants Ownership Group.

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  9. How hardline was St. Louis management in this whole thing? I never thought they'd blow this.

    Just on WAR assumptions alone ($5 mil per win) Pujols had earned @ 88 WAR, what, $440 million. He'd been paid just north of $100 million.

    Not to mention two World Series.

    Cards, you've got an honest legend. Squeaky clean to boot. St. Louis, you suck up those dead years at the end of the contract, build a HUGE statue at the yard, and then they you trot Albert out every single ceremonial day. (Call it the Stan the Man plan.)

    I can't believe they didn't take the longview look at this.

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  10. Arte Moreno didn't own the Angels the one and ONLY time they won the WS. Since then, he's spent on Vlad, Colon, Escobar, Torii Hunter, Haren and now Pujols and Wilson.

    He doesn't have any more to show for it than the Giants ownership.

    I agree though, that what the Marlins and Angels are doing this offseason tends to put the lie to any claims by ownership of any team that they can't afford to get the players they want or that there has to be a hard cap on salary. I mean, how does a team like the Mets lose $75 M and yet the Angels can afford this?

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  11. Yup, the Cardinals are out in the cold. Might as well blow it all up and start over.

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  12. Found some more info on the Angels, and now it is starting to become clearer.

    Roger's impression was correct, there were a lot of empty seats. Biz of Baseball said that Angels had sold out for years until 2011, when they had a lot of empty seats. Pujols will help fill them.

    The more pertinent bit of data is that the Angels were getting $50M per year on their TV contract until they opted out last season, and went to a year to year arrangement.

    Until now, they are finalizing negotiations on a 20 year, $3B TV contract, which will give them $150M per year. So once the deal is done, they should be getting around $100M extra per year for 20 years. So not only can they afford Pujols and Wilson, they probably can sign Beltran and all the other top agents and still have money left over.

    I will research, but I doubt the Giants contract is that lucrative.

    Though maybe, if the A's were to move away...

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  13. DrB, don't you mean Giants ownership has something to show for it while Moreno doesn't? Or is that a subtle dig at current ownership vs. Neukom?

    Kelly, that is the longview, 10 years at $250M is a lot for a player, particularly one who would be 41 YO in the final year of the deal, plus the suspicion that Pujols is older than official records say.

    I forgot where I saw it, but someone looked at Pujols WAR and after a whole career of over 8 WAR, he's been declining for the past two seasons, and sharply too, almost 50% down from two seasons prior. As DrB noted above, he barely "earned" $25M in production this season.

    That is a huge question mark for Pujols. What if he continues to decline? Even if he has hit a plateau, he's just barely earning that. What happens once he hits the hockey stick down that almost all players hit in their mid-to-late 30's? Willie Mays basically free-falled in production in his mid-30's, at age 36, halving his production from the year before. First it was defense greatly, plus some offense, then even that went.

    Then again, if Pujols earned WAR like Willie, from age 36-41, at $5M/WAR, he would have produced $138.0M and would have been paid $150.0M. And Willie lost some WAR during those years on defense, Pujols DHing would not result in that loss, which would essentially broke even.

    And, at Baseball Analysts, the author noted that Pujols was an even better hitter than Willie Mays, based on OPS+, so maybe that back end of the deal isn't as scary as once thought, particularly since WAR/$ inflation will happen over the next 10 years (barring any depression), DH will help, and if he really is a better hitter, presumably will produce more than Willie.

    Plus, haven't seen this anywhere yet, but Angel's home plays more neutral for hitters than Card's (per Bill James), which depresses homers much more, so he could even hit more homers for the Angels, giving his stats a boost.

    OK, so the deal all around seems to make a lot of sense for the Angels, with the only note of caution is what Pujols real age is. But even if he is older by 2 years (which seems to be the number I recall seeing for most of these age corrections), with all the points I made above, he could still produce that much, just not a lot more. Still, just earning his pay is better than, say, an Albert Belle outcome.

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  14. Was it just me, but when I saw the deal and read how they just made the offer and it was accepted, I had this mental image:

    Arte Moreno surfing on eBay, seeing Pujols in there, clicks on the "BUY NOW" button.

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  15. Nice article on Fangraphs discussing Pujols potential to have an injury or need to sit out due to surgery: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-pujols-an-injury-risk/

    Tilts the pendulum back for me on the risk of signing Pujols, missing a year for TJS could greatly change the calculus of his producing to match his salary.

    Though one thing that is not captured anywhere yet, other than Biz of Baseball, is the fact that the Angels had nearly $9M unsold seats last season, and if Pujols is responsible for filling them, he won't need to produce as much on the field for the deal to pay off for Angels.

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  16. http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-angels-fox-tv-20111209,0,4052777.story

    how artie got flush with caishe

    they dont need to fill seats...just raise tv ratings

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  17. TV and Radio ratings should not be a problem down here. Its genius timing, everybody is so sick of the Doyers and Parking Lot Guy, who is trying desperately to auction his tv rights and hang onto said parking lots. What a mess.

    I really wouldn't mind steering Cuban towards a nice tidy buyout: just convince 25-30 Silicon Valley Donkeys to give up their shares. How about 900MM Mark? A relative bargain compared to the headache of the Doyers.

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  18. OGC,

    I'm not even vaguely optimistic about Albert doing well on the back half of the contract. And while I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, I do think there is a decent chance that Albert is older than he says. Those are a couple of pretty big red flags.

    But, so what? This is marketing move as well as baseball move. (Unlike Zito, this one will work.) Pujols spends his entire career there and St. Louis gets to reap the benefits of being the sole employer of the best player of the millennium. (Well, early in the millennium.)

    Now it's possible that he wears an Angels cap on his hall plaque. Booooo.

    Dr. B,

    I still believe the Cards are pretty good. Good enough to shore things up, hope Wainwright comes back sometime in '12, and make a run in the Central. We'll see.

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  19. Adrian Gonzalez' contract from last year looks like one of the best of the decade. I think he'll outplay Pujols for the next 5 years, plays probably better D than Albert and for 100mil less over the life of the contract, I may be changing my mind about it being a great deal...

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  20. beane really hates the giants

    cahill to the snakes

    thank god it was gio

    told you doc...snakes are gonna have a rotation that is gonna match the gmen

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  21. Cahill is going from a pretty extreme pitcher's park to a pretty extreme hitter's park. Sinker's don't sink as much in that hot desert air. He'll do OK when the roof is closed.

    Parker is going to be a beast and Cowgill is a good player. I actually like this Billy trade more than most.

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  22. Next on the Wolff/Beane agenda: lobby MLB to allow the A's an exemption to trade their draft picks before the year is out. The number of NL West trades are insane for Trader Billy.

    The Royals, casting around for pitching and shopping Wil Myers couldn't have come up with something better?

    Snakes are pretty stacked, gotta say. They will run into more of a budget problem than us though.

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  23. it was a good trade for beane regarding rebuilding...but he is always in a rebuilding mode, thanks to wolff

    lets face it, selig loves to pick and choose which crooks he will allow to be mlb owners

    neither wolff nor loria should be a part of the mlb

    word is that beane is still shopping gio too...as long as he aint coming to the nl...im ok with that

    and ya, have a feeling that trevor's stats away from snaketown will be a lot better than his home ones...but he is a solid 2 or 3 and the giants cant touch him

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