The Giants this evening traded Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez to the New York Mets for Angel Pagan. The trade shakes up the apple cart a bit as Pagan will almost certainly be the Giants starting CF with Melky Cabrera moving over to LF. The ripples keep on going from there as it almost certainly ends talk of Aubrey Huff playing much in LF, which means he will most likely be the starting first baseman and Brandon Belt will likely start the season in Fresno.
Angel Pagan and Andres Torres are very similar players. Both are fast, switch-hitters with some power and the ability to play CF. Both kicked around for awhile before having breakout seasons in 2010 and both had struggles with injury, chronic illness and regressed performance in 2011. We all know the Andres Torres story. As a reminder, here are his stats from the last 2 years and his career line:
2010 .268/.343/.479, 16 HR, 26 SB, 6.8 WAR.
2011 .221/.312/.330, 4 HR, 19 SB, 2.1 WAR.
Career .244/318/.403.
For comparison, here's Pagan's comparable numbers:
2010 .290/.340/.425, 11 HR, 37 SB, 5.5 WAR.
2011 .262/322/.372, 7 HR, 32 SB, 0.9 WAR.
Career .279/.331/.418.
A few comments here:
1. Torres at his best may have more power. Pagan at his best appears to have a higher BA and more SB's. Pagan actually had a much better offensive season than Torres in 2011.
2. Pagan's defense appears to have suffered in 2011 which accounts entirely for him producing a lower WAR than Torres. Pagan's defensive ratings were always good prior to 2011. He uncharacteristically made 10 errors, while his range numbers were not as bad.
3. Both players battled injuries in 2011. Torres has a chronic illness in ADD while Pagan reportedly has a history of "colitis" that flared up last year. There are many types of "colitis", but if he has Chronic Ulcerative Colitis, that can be a real SOB. The Giants signed a minor league FA a few years ago, Adam Pettyjohn or something like that who almost died from the disease at one point.
4. Torres will turn 34 yo on January 26 while Pagan turns 31 on July 2.
Both players have obvious, similar talents, similar flaws and similar career trajectories. If you told me that one of them will repeat their 2010 season, and forced me to put a bet on which one, I'd pick Pagan without much hesitation. To me, WAR is just a bit too dependent on the whims of UZR. Pagan's offense clearly was less of a dropoff than Torres and his career numbers are significantly better too. I realize the importance of defense, but I believe Pagan's D is more likely to bounce back than Torres' bat.
Right or wrong, Torres was clearly not in the Giants plans for 2012. He was likely to be not tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline. Pagan gives the Giants a likely starting CF and leadoff hitter, a role that Melky Cabrera probably could have handled, but not nearly as well. Clearly, the Giants like Pagan enough better than Torres to spend the extra money he is projected to get in arbitration over Torres. Melky can now move to LF and down in the order with Pagan handling the CF/leadoff duties.
Almost lost in the discussion is the fact that Ramon Ramirez was probably actually the principle piece in the Mets end of the trade with Torres being the throw in. Ramirez was acquired mid-season in 2010 and played a key role in the Giant stretch run to the World Series, although he was less successful in the postseason. He was a solid contributor again last year, although not spectacular. The Giants were apparently not excited about paying him arbitration leveraged salary and basically took the money they anticipated Torres and Ramirez would cost and exchange it for Pagan. Candidates to replace Ramirez in the bullpen would include Dan Runzler, giving the Giants 3 LHP's in the pen, Dan Otero, Hector Correa or possibly a minor league FA pickup or even a Rule 5 draftee. Guillermo Mota seems to be more likely to come back at this point.
Overall, it's a decent trade that may solve both the CF and leadoff hitter problem. The big downside to me is it makes Brandon Belt more likely to start the season in Fresno which could be a pretty big opportunity cost, although Belt is not a lock to play up to his intriguing projections and a little more salt in Fresno won't hurt him.
Baggs seems to think the Giants are pretty far along on another trade of Jeff Keppinger to an AL team for an unknown return player. Stay tuned.
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Interesting trade. Obviously I like Pagan so I'm happy for that. Ramirez was just too expensive and replaceable, he was our easiest traded player. I feel like our OF is younger and better than last year with these 2 trades. Definitely was getting used to the idea of Belt in the lineup though, and that stings. Let's see how it shakes out, but he could be the first call from Fresno as soon as something goes wrong. It may be the right thing to do for his confidence. I'm sure it will be the most discussed aspect of the season.
ReplyDeleteNate the Great will need to have a good spring and stay healthy. This provides some more backup on that front. I think this trade actually makes Beltran a more likely signing than before, although I think its a long shot at that. This is a very typical Sabean move, you sort through what you have, and then you reevaluate. If possible you improve depth at your positions of need.
Great analysis of the players. I'd agree that Pagan is the better bet.
Okay loved watching Torres play in 2010, not so much in 2011. Great guy, great story. Will always be a favorite player for his heart. Best bare chested, brick throwing training video ever. Gotta show the man some love and hope he makes good in NYC.
ReplyDeleteBut man I won't miss Torres strikeouts, the base running errors and the OBP cliff he fell off of in 2011.
The key for the Giants is this could really improve the offense. It moves Melky down in the order and slots Pagan into the leadoff position. Much better than forcing Melky to leadoff and it lengthens the batting order - a real key for the Giants to reach an average offense. The defensive alignment is also better by getting Huff out of LF.
Yes, Don Carlos is gone (was he ever really here?), Ross is gone (I'm okay with this), and Belt is seemingly the odd man out here. This does upset my itch to play the young guys. But why not create more competition and options. If Huff fails again, Belt is playing in Fresno everyday and can step in. If Belt forces his way in, then Huff sits more.
Overall a good trade for the potential to improve the offense and keep the up the middle defense strong.
ramirez was the key in the trade. mets need to rebuild their pen, and all their best arms are a good year to two away from coming up.
ReplyDeleteand you can add hembree to the mix, as he now definitely gets an st invite
good to have depth in the pen.
giants still need that utility right handed bat
and i dont think there is a chance in hades that carlos is coming back...lay odds that before dec ends, he signs a 3 plus 1 with the halos
belt back in fresno? hope the brain trust is smart enough to have a long chat with him before that decision is made...the kid did the winter ball thing for them, and we all now know how the yo yo thing affected his confidence.
as an aside, shea noted that pat is talking with giants about org job and that sabean an the powers that be are very open to it. good move...guy has the best plate approach i have ever seen, next to bonds...like that players want to stay and be a part of the org...speaks well of the rep
Lots of people have been sure that yo-yo ate away at Belt's confidence, and they may--we don't know--be right. If the alternative was failure after failure for 500 ABs, as Bochy said the other day, might that have damaged his confidence still more? I would modify bacci's contention that he did winter ball for the team; after the trouble he had with major league pitching, he did it, or should have been doing it, for himself.
ReplyDeleteI was furious when I first heard of the trade; I loved Torres and thought he was as perfect a fit as a 4th outfielder we could get, he was cheap (and possible could be hardballed into being cheaper), and had the talent, health and ability to rebound. Pagan is pretty much the same guy, but younger, and with less walks and strikeouts, and slightly less power. Oh, and won't provide truly elite CF defense either. The fact that Pagan costs twice as much and is under control for only one year kills me that we gave up Ramirez too--he was our best piece to get a good RHH 2B/SS backup/platoon option without giving up prospects. Maybe Renteria as the 1million dollar man might work if we can't pick up a guy like Lowrie.
ReplyDeleteBut I've turned around on it and have accepted it. I was okay with Melky in CF, and the Giants may still be. But outfield depth is a good thing, especially after Torres, Cody, Nate, Burrell and Belt all missed significant time last year.
And I think it is a good idea to put Belt in Fresno to start the year and let him force the issue rather than put him in the lineup and under the pressure to be a primary run producer. I truly think that he should be if not in 2012 then 2013 our 2nd best hitter after the Panda, and could be our best, so I would love him in the lineup all year. That said, I think it would be better if we let the outfield shake out, let Belt work on reducing Ks and seeing more breaking pitches, and have the motivation to force the issue that the big club is missing out and promote him with the intention of starting him everyday.
Between Huff, Pagan, Schierholtz, and Melky, it is more than likely that one guy will either be terrible at the plate or get hurt sometime in the first month or two; don't wish for it to happen, but in all likelihood we won't be so fortunate that all can be productive playing everyday from the beginning to the end of the season. If that happened, that's a good problem to have, and if Belt forces the issue even then, somebody can be traded (like maybe Huff after rebuilding value?) or an outfield rotation will ensue. It's quite possible they do that from the beginning though, but I'd be afraid of Belt spending too much time on the bench in that case. He should play 150 games next year between Fresno and big league club. Rare are the guys that can destroy the entire minor leagues in their first pro season; the guys that have done it in the past decade: Longo, Braun, Tulo, Drew, and so forth are the kind of franchise sluggers we all having been dreaming on.
OH OH OH. I forgot my main reason why I turned around on Pagan coming over: the guy is a lead-off hitter. What's better, is that Melky then would be a pretty good #2, and I personally think it's a waste to have Freddy hit there--he was an important player on our team last year only because everybody else was so awful, especially the guys who replaced him. But he has no business batting 2nd on a contender at this point.
ReplyDeleteBut all in all, even without a Beltran, I think we have a pretty good team for 2012. And more importantly, an even better team for 2013 and beyond. Just look at our lineup, how cheap it is, and how old the guys are.
(In batting order)
CF, BHH Angel Pagan - 30
LF, BHH Melky Cabrera - 27
C, RHH Buster Posey - 25
3B, BHH Pablo Sandoval - 25
1B, LHH Aubrey Huff - 35
RF, LHH Nate Schierholtz - 28
2B, RHH Freddy Sanchez - 34
SS, LHH Brandon Crawford - 25
That's a pretty good 1-8, even with Crawford at #8, but his plate discipline would play up with the pitcher hitting behind him. Good balance, with 3 BHH, 2 RHH, 3 LHH.
Here's the lineup with Belt, but if everybody is healthy I'd like him playing everyday and Huff (or whoever isn't hitting or banged up) getting rest the most in a rotation between Pagan, Cabrera, and Nate, with Cabrera spelling Pagan in CF when he needs rest as well as covering LF/RF, Huff playing 1B/LF, and Nate covering RF as he so masterfully does.
CF, BHH Angel Pagan - 30
LF, BHH Melky Cabrera - 27
1B, LHH Brandon Belt - 24
C, RHH Buster Posey - 25
3B, BHH Pablo Sandoval - 25
RF, LHH Nate Schierholtz - 28
2B, RHH Freddy Sanchez - 34
SS, LHH Brandon Crawford - 25
Belt slotted in the 3 spot to break up the LH/RH splits, but that may be a year away. Point is, look at the ages there, specifically at the middle of the order. They're all 25 or younger, just nearing their primes. They're all under team control for 3-6 years. That's the foundation of a lineup just like Timmy, Cain, and Madbum form a devastating pitching core. Guys, things could really get better.
Schierholtz will only be 29 in 2013, and still under control for 2 more years as a starting RF or 4th OF. Cabrera and Pagan are in their contract years and are young; if Cabrera turned the corner for good he might be a good guy to extend at 28 entering 2013.
Even better, the two geezers, Freddy and 34 and Huff at 35, are gone after next year. And what luck, our two best prospects who are likely to be fast-tracked to the majors play CF and 2B, giving us this for (hopefully) sometime in 2013 and beyond
(2013 ages)
CF RHH Gary Brown - 24
2B LHH Joe Panik - 22
C RHH Buster Posey - 26
3B BHH Pablo Sandoval - 26
1B LHH Brandon Belt - 25
LF BHH Melky Cabrera - 28
RF LHH Nate Schierholtz - 29
SS LHH Brandon Crawford - 26
That is an entire lineup under 30! All except Melky would be under team control. All of them are scattered around the mean of a ballplayer's physical prime. That's an incredible thing to imagine.
All i want this offseason are big fat extensions for Cain and Timmy (even if we have to give him 8 years; it's like signing him to a 6 FA contract. If we could copy Matt Kemp's extension of 8/160, I consider that a bargain given what the many teams would be willing to pay for him).
Lots of good thoughts, everybody! Yep, the team is getting younger and that's exciting. This trade indeed gives the Giants a leadoff hitter. It gives them 2 and possibly 3 switch-hitters at the top of the lineup. Most importantly, Freddy Sanchez can move down to #7 and break up the string of LH bats at the bottom of the order.
ReplyDeleteMatt Kemp's contract with the Dodgers is a bargain for them. I'm guessing the Giants can get Timmy signed for less than 8 years, but 8/160 might be an acceptable option. I'm just leery of signing any pitcher for that long.
Pan - Renteria! Maybe a year has mellowed him. He still has very nice splits against lefties. You could do a lot worse. I was hoping they'd get him and Ramon Hernandez last year. Instead we got the other Colombian in the grudge match. Nice idea.
ReplyDeleteLooking to Chicago as they officially announce they are rebuilding Gordon Beckham might benefit from a change of scenery. I know the Giants really liked him in the Posey draft, and he's been a pretty big bust so far. Don't think they have the bullets for Quentin.
Bacci - I think its more than a chance in Hades. Where would the Halos fit Beltran? They are already amazingly overloaded at OF/DH. I agree its a long shot though, the main teams I see as interested contenders are TX and DET at this point. I guess Boston can still double down as well, they're apparently trying to trade that young RF they have.
Pagan also adds another key to improving the Giants offense - Varrrroooommmmm! 32 bags stolen @82% success rate. Elite speed can be a real factor in 1 run ballgames. Bullet II?
ReplyDeleteDang, lost my post.
ReplyDeleteGreat post as usual DrB!
I love Pan's comment, yes, the team will be very young very soon, and coming together nicely with these trades and young prospects coming up.
DrB had mentioned getting Beckham last season. Depends on what we have to give up, but that could work, he plays both 2B and SS, plus 3B.
Per Shark's comment, Pagan was +27 bases in 2011 per Bill James baserunning stats. I think that would be tops on the Giants, though Torres probably would have more if he played more. Still, Pagan missed a lot of games himself, so he could have more too.
ReplyDeleteBacci 1
ReplyDeleteShankbone 0
Hades it is, according to Baggs. No Beltran, no Ross, OF is set. Mota is coming back, I like that. Dude is comedy, and pitched some nice innings for us.
Little nugget from the NY Press: We tried to get Pagan for Torres at the Beltran trade last year.
I'm truly mixed on Beltran. When he's in the lineup he does make it better. But it's easy to forget that last year was almost a career year for Beltran in terms of OPS+--he was at 152 when his career average is at 121. To expect him to hit that well going forward is hopeful, to say the least. He would be a devastating force with Pablo, Buster, and Belt in the 3-6 holes, but how much time would he miss? How much would he cost? The second question seems to be nearing to a more reasonable answer given the lack of interest that is being reported.
ReplyDeleteBut I like the idea of the Giants cleaning the books of bad contracts and avoiding them in the future. We have a core of franchise cornerstones, 2 of whom in Cain and Timmy are nearing FA. These guys are extraordinarily expensive to keep, and I think getting rid of expensive contracts and not replacing them with other FAs is a very good idea.
If Timmy and Cain combine for $40-45m/year, that's a big chunk of the payroll. Even if we are regularly contenders, even passing $130m long-term is pretty serious territory: only the NYY, Philly, Boston, and LAA are above that or in that territory.
Beltran would be a great addition to the lineup, but what would the payroll hit be? Would he sign a contract for like $7m in 2012, $18m in 2013, expecting the transfer the Huff savings over to him? Would he need a third year? Ouch. That could sting if he needs another knee surgery at any point.
I kinda like the risk-averse strategy and not to be caught up in the WIN NOW whirlwind that already lost us Wheeler. If Cain and Timmy are here to stay, then we will likely be a solid contender in 2012 and 2013 without Beltran, but in 2014 and onward, with a full complement of young position players in their primes, the team could really be one of those GREAT teams who are dominant on both sides of the ball.
Pan - those are excellent points about Beltran. It was pretty nice that he had the hot month and they rolled along, but the month before with the wrist was some grim times and that needs to be remembered as well. I don't mind the trade, sometimes you have to go for it, and you fall short.
ReplyDeleteAs the old player jokes mount up with Sabean the years on the deals are melting away. I doubt he's even offering up many 2 year deals right now. We have entered a drafting Sabes era since Timmy, and its just been expanding slowly every year. People are too engrained in joking/rage to notice. As the core grows, Sabey Sabes will have the luxury of being even pickier, and that would possibly yield better results on the FA/Trade side. A good deep farm can really help out. They are starting to get good, I don't think they're deep yet.
Good eye OGC - we got a throw in finally! PTBNL from the Mets, most likely from a pool of names recently drafted. Bout time, Sabean, you've been throwing away way too many B-arms in these trades lately.
thought 2 for 1 was off...deal includes either ptnbl or caishe. oh, and now the buzz is decker out as fresno manager to take up roving hitting instructor duties? huh????
ReplyDeletedecker gonna bolt
Beltran has become more interesting as the winter progresses.
ReplyDeleteIt's nice that the market for him right now is cold, cold, cold. And the Red Sox offer Ortiz arbitration has to slow things down even more for Carlos. That may change as Albert and Prince land. But, maybe not. Guy has averaged just over 300 ABs the last 5 seasons. Wow.
I hope the Giants don't close the door on Beltran (as Sabean has suggested), but just put an offer on the table that works for them. Beltran can take, leave or be insulted. No matter.
I was positive it would take at least 3 years to sign Beltran, but now, maybe 2 years at the right price would do it.
Wouldn't be surprised if the Beltran signing pushes into January.
Well, Bochy is manager for the forseeable future, so Decker ain't gonna be managing in SF any time soon anyway.
ReplyDeletebut doc, decker was the go to guy for working with catchers and pitchers....roving batting instructor???
ReplyDeleteoh, and barring a trade for hanley....bochy has proclaimed that craw is the giants ss
of course craw is in the caribbean honeymooning and could care less right now
on carlos
ReplyDeletemarket is cold cuz lets face it...for a 3 year contract, carlos can only go to al...no nl team is gonna trust those knees to hold up for a full 3 years
if carlos was offered, and accepted a 2 year gig, with the understanding that he would play left...i would be cool with that
giants could then turn and deal melky with an arm package for a righty mi
This is interesting, from Baggs latest:
ReplyDelete“We’re hoping like hell that Burriss can turn into the player we all forecasted him to be,” Sabean said.
I assumed Burriss was out the door.
So now we get to play fill in the RH MI and guess the non-tender.
Bacci - interesting take on Beltran. Is this just outside of Hades? I can't think of a time when Sabey Sabes has gone back on this definitive a statement. You were right, the ship sailed. I'd take that scenario you did. Real professional hitters don't grow on trees.
I believe Andy Skeels is a former catcher who worked with Tommy Joseph to improve his catching D last year in SJ, so Decker isn't the only guy who can do that.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what the obssession with Brandon Crawford's marriage and honeymoon is all about there, Bacci. When it comes to Brandon and his honeymoon, I could care less!
Beltran is probably a no go, but the Giants brass seemed to be rather loudly proclaiming that they were going to stay in house for their upgrades coming into the Winter Meetings. They were obviously playing possum with that one! We'll see. Sabes likes to get his shopping done early so could be a pretty quiet rest of the Hot Stove League.
Well, Sabean did once say that a certain catcher's ship had sailed. Right around the winter meetings, even. But there sure doesn't seem to be much to link them with Beltran.
ReplyDeletefunny doc,
ReplyDeletemaybe i should link you to every beat reporter and columnist who has mentioned craw, nate and zito getting married in the past week...seems other giants fans are interested...did you see the mac chron love letter to torres? these guys are more than commodities...you arent a gm, please stop acting like it
Anon - Bengie. I generally block all Bengie drama out of my head. Good call. Savvy Sabes hardball negotiation. I do hope they get serious about Cain and Timmy now.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a GM and I'm not a beat reporter and I don't care when or where or what Crawford, Nate or Zito are doing on their honeymoon. Thanks for the updates though.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I don't recall reading any reports of any player weddings or honemoons by any beat reporters. Maybe I just missed those columns or maybe my eyes just glazed over at those points in the reports.
Yeah, there were reports, particularly on Chron on Zito, and by extension, Crawford (something about them being good friends yet neither were at the others wedding, since they were like on the same day or something). Nate also sound familiar to me too.
ReplyDeleteI read somewhere that Decker asked to be roving instructor because his daughter is at college somewhere mid west or something and he wanted the flexibility to be able to attend her games, volleyball I believe. So I do not think he is going to bolt, he asked for this, it appears.
Now that you mention it, I recall reading an article on Steve Decker's daughter and he volleyball exploits. I have two daughters who played volleyball in middle school and high school and I can see why he would want to do that. Women's volleyball is intense!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of bolting, the Angels decided the Phillies were just having too much of that aging expensive superstar vibe so they decided to go grab a bunch themselves. Pretty bold move.
ReplyDeleteWe heard a few nights ago that the Giants were far along with an AL team for a package for Keppinger - maybe just one of those old fashioned "player to be named later" or a reclamation project, but what's the deal with that? Haven't heard anything about it since...
ReplyDeletenot buying the whole, decker want to watch his daughter play vollyeball thing...something happened last season during one of the vets stints in fresno that the braintrust didnt like...god forbid that decker should treat all his players the same...he probably refused to serve zito a cup of cappuccino
ReplyDeletemoreno is betting that the world will end in 2018...no player is worth 25 mil per for a full 10 years and he overspent on both wilson and the hawk (aint it amazing that deer in headlights with the giants is now worth 3 mil?)
halos betting that albert can still be productive as a dh well into his 40s (cuz albert aint only 31)
hey...halos making a splash before magic gets the bums....but is it worth 250 mil? dont know
do know that loria is up to his old tricks again....because the reason albert didnt take the marlins deal was because they refused to give him a no trade
agone...gone to the brew crue
ReplyDeletelooks like the giants are gonna trust that manny is ready to be utility guy
No new post for Pujols DrB?
ReplyDeleteMoreno is killing the Doyers, I love that aspect of it. Definitely going to hurt, but maybe they stagger that hurt each year. Advantage of the legit big market is the ability to take on terrible contracts. They look pretty good I have to say.
Loria IS up to his old tricks. Never trust an art dealer. Ever. Good for CJ Wilson to stiff arm the money on that one. And I bet the no-trade killed the deal.
Agone is gone. Benencourt. Oh man, that one would be hard to take. I'm surprised in the Gints keeping the faith with Manny B.
Hold on to your horses, guys! I just got home from a long hard day at work. I will comment on Moreno's spending orgasm in due time.
ReplyDeletedoc....gotta get your priorities straight
ReplyDeletewhats more important...sick people or baseball?
there will always be sick people....but how many times will an albert sign a deal making him a 1 percenter?
shades of arod....oops....no trade clause....not even shades of arod