With the end of the Winter Meetings and Brian Sabean all but declaring his offseason shopping finished, I thought it might be a good time to break down where the Giants stand with their roster construction for the 2012 season. We'll include salary estimates and see if there is any room left under the $130 M payroll limit Giants ownership has set for next season:
Starting Position Players(8)
C Buster Posey $480 K
1B Aubrey Huff $ 10 M
2B Freddy Sanchez $ 6 M
SS Brandon Crawford $480 K
3B Pablo Sandoval $3.2 M
LF Melky Cabrera $4.4 M
CF Angel Pagan $4.7 M
RF Nate Schierholtz $1.2 M
Position Player Reserves(5)
C Chris Stewart $480 K
IF Mike Fontenot $1.3 M
IF/OF Emmanuel Burriss $600 K
1B, 3B?, 2B?, OF? Brett Pill $480 K
1B/OF Brandon Belt $480 K
Starting PItchers(5)
SP Tim Lincecum $19.2 M
SP Matt Cain $ 15.3 M
SP Madison Bumgarner $800 K
SP Ryan Vogelsong $2.5 M
SP Barry Zito $19 M
Relief Pitchers(7)
CL Brian Wilson $8.5 M
RP Sergio Romo $1.3 M
RP Santiago Casilla $1.9 M
RP Jeremy Affeldt $ 5 M
RP Javier Lopez $4.25 M
RP Guillermo Mota $1 M
RP Dan Runzler $480 K
Warrior Spirit $13.6 M
Total Payroll $126.46 M
Numbers are taken from Cot's contracts and MLB Traderumors Projected Arbitration Salaries
Of course, we don't know what the exact total will be until after the arbitration cases are all settled. It's even possible that if things don't go the Giants way, this could bump up above $130 M, which is why they probably won't sign anyone else until after the arbitration process has played out. On the other hand, they could do some multi-year deals with some backloading which might lower their commitment in 2012 a bit further.
Belt probably needs to go to Fresno until/unless Aubrey Huff gets dumped. The one thing the Giants are lacking is a RH bat off the bench. Pill may fill that role, but they could sure use another one in the OF.
Here are some names of RH hitting FA OF's who might still be on the shelf after the arbitration process has played out:
Ryan Ludwick
Jonny Gomes
Marcus Thames
Conor Jackson
Ryan Spilborghs
All of them should be affordable. I probably like Ludwick the best out of that bunch. Jackson probably could be had on a minor league ST invite. Jackson is a guy who I think might be a sleeper, but then again, I've thought that for the last 2 years.
They could also potentially bring in another veteran bullpen arm and send Runzler back to Fresno. I'd probably rather see them let Runzler, Otero and Correa compete for the last spot with a ST invite for Heath Hembree and bring him aboard the MLB roster if he blows everybody away in ST.
Any other ideas to complete the roster? Potential Trades?
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I thought Posey got $650K in 2011; if so, I do not see the Giants cutting his salary, I would estimate at least $700K, if not $750K.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with Cots on ARow, I think $12M is the right amount, If I recall right, I did not like how they spread his bonus.
I also do not see the Giants giving only the min salary to Crawford and Belt, at least $500K, maybe $550K.
These would put payroll around $125M, space enough to sign one more once OK bat to give a shot to. Ludwick was mentioned in rumors before. I have never been enamored with Jackson. I like Gomes, he is also local boy, Napa County if I recall right. Do not think much of Spilborghs. Thames could be intriguing for his power, same for Gomes, but if you want some defense, it probably has to be Ludwick, but his hitting has declined a lot each year. DeRosa?
Yeah, there may be a few hundred K here and there, and yes, it adds up. It does seem like there is a chance they will have around $3 M to spare here. They might want to save it for a rainy day, like maybe a mid-season trade or two. I'd love for them to add Ludwick to the mix though. He didn't hit that bad last year when you factor in the Petco effect.
ReplyDeleteYou're right OGC, Cots put Rowand's bonus averaged out, they paid it already. It should be 12MM.
ReplyDeleteGomes is from Petaluma. I have a buddy from there (who actually played ball at Fullerton) who knows him. He'd be my choice because he's cheap and has always mashed lefties.
I doubt they go get a 4th OF though. They already have Christian and Graham on the 40-man, Blanco has done well in the VZL since signing. Then you throw in Kieschnick and Frankie Peggs to the mix? Not much MLB experience there besides Blanco, but Pill/Belt/Huff being able to play OF as well makes that 4th OF spot unnecessary. They may have recognized the 3/4 OF types they collect just get in the way of each other at times. They can choose from 5 different guys who all play pretty good defense. How they fit them all to Fresno I'm not sure.
Looking at that list I like what I see. The first thing that pops out is Huff/Belt. Discussed a ton, but the season really hinges on how that plays out and what they produce.
They need to bring in 2-3 guys to challenge Zito for that 5th starter. Really wish the Giants would bite the bullet on this and DFA, maybe in August it'll happen. But if they're at 125MM I think grabbing Maholm gives them a great competitive advantage. The blogosphere might explode though.
Love the bullpen idea of Hembree getting a shot. They need to decide whether Runzler is going to get another chance at starting.
Getting a RH IF bat with pop is hard. So they'll try Pill. The only problem is he doesn't walk, which is one outcome you want late in the game. I don't believe the Giants with their Burriss love, but he's fine as a defensive fill-in and pinch runner. The hitting is a pretty big issue though. If Ryan Theriot can be had cheap he'd be a good 2b/SS platoon solution. Or Mark DeRosa.
Pill and Burriss are definite question marks. Bringing in some good ol savvy vets for cheap makes sense if you can find them. If Sanchez gets hurt again or young Brandon can't hack MLB pitching you want somebody who can hit a little to jump in so we don't have to burn off more pitching arms on badly scouted trades such as Keppinger.
If Hector Sanchez has his defense up to par and rakes in spring training I see him making it. If they're going 100 games for Posey max they'll want his bat. CStew is a great backup, good D and showed some promise with the bat, but Sanchez is a clearly superior bat and the switch hitting is pretty attractive.
I just think they need a RH bat off the bench with some pop who has a ghost of chance to hit it out in the late innings and they do have an open OF slot if Belt starts the season in Fresno.
ReplyDeleteWhat if we paid half of Huff's contract, do you think Milwaukee would be interested? That way Belt could start at 1B and have Pill as a backup. Belt could also start in LF on some days and have Pill at 1B. We all can agree that Huff probably will not have a year close to 2010. It is a shame to see Belt in a bench role. I wish there was a way to give him a bunch of starts to see what he is all about. I feel the same about Pill with the power he displayed at the end of last year and throughout AAA. Dump Huff now!
ReplyDeleteWhy not Cody Ross as the RH hitting fourth outfielder? Maybe he is determined to compete for a starting spot and the G's have let him know they don't see that happening with Cabrera/Nate/Pagan the presumptive starters headed into spring training. Still I'd like to see Cody come back, I think the depleted lineup really hurt him last year, he was pressing and not seeing good pitches.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't the salary of the entire 40-man roster count towards the team's budget??? If so, that's another 15 guys (!!!) at the league minimum of $480,000... or around another $7.2 M.
ReplyDeleteFirst, love the blog. Those that comment always have something intelligent to say.
ReplyDeleteRegarding back-up catcher. If Crawford is our SS, and I hope he is, the line-up can't take 30 to 40 games with Stewart hitting 7th. While I believe Crawford could hit .235 to .250, with an obp in the .300 range, Stewart and Crawford hitting 7th and 8th is not pretty.
On Belt. He is the one guy in the offensive mix that could break out and put up numbers. I just don't see Huff giving us (or anybody) 2010 numbers again. Belt is not a big city, been through the tough stuff guy. Put Belt in the line-up every day, at 1B or in RF, and be patient. I know Kieth Law of ESPN does not get it right every time, and he is a little full of himself, but he has been on the Belt bandwagon from the get-go. I am buying. Let's not forget, for every frustrating called third strike, there is a borderline pith taken for a ball, or a walk. Belt's obp is strong (and you can't teach plate discipline) and he runs up pitch counts.
I truely believe the Giants will have a much improved offense in 2012. But, we NEED 450 to 500 ABs for Belt.
Red Sox trade away Lowrie, sign up Nick Punto? Here's a laugher: rumor the G's are in on Yu Darvish? Come on now...
ReplyDeleteWeird offseason with the Yanks and Sox playing moneyball. I hope the Rocks sign Cuddyer because if they somehow grab Beltran cheap...
Scott A. Players only make the league minimum if they are on the 25 man active roster. As soon as they get sent down they go on the minor league payroll. Guys who get yo-yoed it gets prorated by how many games they play at each level. So basically, minor league guys on the 40 man roster don't count against the MLB payroll.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see them dump Huff and pay whatever it takes to get rid of him. I hadn't thought of Milwaukee but good destination perhaps or maybe the Cards will want him as they seem to have the magic potion to make old First Basemen perform (Will Clark, Big Mac, and Berkman).
ReplyDeleteThe battle for 1B should be between Pill and Belt and it would give us the RH/LH for matchups that they need. If they are able to clear any cap room by dumping Huff then maybe they could squeeze a 5th starter in the payroll so we don't have to watch Zito blow all year.
I hope you are wrong on the Rocks getting Cuddyer Shankbone. He could go off like Vinnie Castilla used to do in that ballpark.
As far as trades go, I have zero confidence that Sabes would be able to pull one off but I would love to see what they could get for guys like Runzler, Nate, Noonan, Gillespie, or Huff. If somehow they could package Runzler, Nate, and Panda for Hanley (pinch me I think I am dreaming) that would be pretty sweet!
Does anyone know how much money is coming off the books next year? Take away Rowand and Huff and you have 22 mil right there, I have heard upwards of 40-50 will clear but not sure where those numbers came from. I am worried that next years crop of free agents is going to suck and by not signing a guy like Cuddyer this year they are going to have money to spend next year and not much talent available to spend it on.
Pato... as of right now, the contracts that will be coming off the books before the 2013 season are: Rowand ($13.6M !!!), Huff ($10M), Cain ($15.3M), Wilson ($8.5M), Sanches ($6M), Affeldt ($5M), Fontenot ($1.05M), and presumeably Mota ($1M). Around $60M.
ReplyDeleteHowever, obviously, the Giants will want to resign at least some of those guys AND there will be other one-year contracts signed between now and then.
Pato, a trade of the panda straight up for hanley would be an absolute disaster. His back injury is going to effect his game big time. Throw in the lazy bad attitude and you have to stay way far away. Sandoval has a good chance to go top 5 in the NL next year if things break his way. No way the Gints trade him.
ReplyDeleteHuff has no trade value so the G's might as well see if they get this even year bounce. It might be a mixed bag with him being 35 and skills declining, but I think he has some pride on the line. He stood up and owned it. In the wasteland of weak grounders to 2nd we've forgotten how huge Huff was for us, even in the playoffs. I think he's a great supporting cast guy, just not a leader or the main force. Too much pressure on himself coupled with poor conditioning created a disaster.
Hey, I'd prefer for the Rocks to get nothing, but Beltran is the more dangerous hitter over Cuddyer.
Scott Thompson,
ReplyDeleteThank you! We have worked hard to create an environment conducive to serious baseball talk, but casual fans who stop by are welcome to comment too.
Pato, et al,
I have thought that maybe Pablo Sandoval might not have the type of body that ages well. It's certainly high maintenance at the very least. After hearing how enthusiastic he is about another offseason of conditioning and seeing some pics from his training site, I'm becoming a believer that he just might have some truly monster seasons in him. I'm talking MVP type stuff here. Add in the eye problems he's apparently had and the Lasik surgery, plus the relative scarcity of good third basemen, well, right now I wouldn't trade him for anybody, let alone in a package for Hanley Ramirez.
Add on from et al: I really like the increased power Pablo demonstrated this year. I agree, the Lasik, the conditioning, the awesome cat like defense. I think he's setting himself up for some really good stuff next year and beyond.
ReplyDeleteNo way in a million years would I trade Pablo for Hanley. Pablo is as unique a hitter as Hanley but he'll be cheaper for us, as well as a good citizen, plus that's like taking a hit to our offense, losing Pablo, who hits much better than Hanley.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the MVP type season, he has that potential, which he showed in his 2009 season, and he's still young. We have Brown coming up soon, I would rather wait. Now if it were Brown instead of Sandoval for Hanley, that's another question, one that I would consider.
Don't know why all the hate for Huff. He's a good hitter when he's in shape, just like Sandoval getting into shape for 2011. He's declining but after his slow start, he managed a low 700 OPS for the rest of the season, which is not that bad compared to other LF (assuming he plays there a good number of games, as Bochy suggests).
Throwing him away for nothing is just for spite (so is Zito). You first see if he's capable of playing the way he was in 2010 (for both), and if they are, then you can't buy that production anywhere, and if they are shadows of their former self, then it would be just as easy to cut them early in the season and promote somebody else, particularly Huff.
Don't know why everyone is so sold on Belt succeeding now. He still can't avoid the strikeout. I would rather have him learn in AAA and work at eliminating the strikeout. If he can do that, it would be like having a Sandoval at 1B who can steal bases. If you keep him in the majors, he could just learn to accept the strikeouts and become a Rob Deer type.
Which is still good for us, but why accept Deer when you can have a great hitter instead?
You are not going to get much for Runzler, Nate, Noonan, Gillespie, or Huff, no matter how good a GM you are. Teams know how good (or not) that they are. So challenging Sabean to get something in trade for that doesn't make any sense, no GM will be able to turn that bunch into a good hitter or pitcher.
I liked the nice job that Sabean did in getting Melky (BA misspelled his name) and Pagan. People are down on Zito, but Sanchez is an even worse bet, he could be great, he could be crap. Melky, at least, I feel could be OK if he's like 2009, but great if like 2011. That's getting a much better floor to go with a good ceiling as well.
I thought Pablo showed pretty good power in 2009 too, but yeah, he did take it up a notch in 2011 as well. And I expect more from him going forward, he is only 25 YO next season!
ReplyDeleteThat rumor Eli Whiteside returning CAN'T be true, can it?
ReplyDeleteI saw that about Whiteside. Yeah, I kind of shook my head on that. I hope it's for a minor league deal. Even at that, I wouldn't want him taking PT away from Hector and Johnny Monell in Fresno.
ReplyDeleteShankbone,
ReplyDeleteWhere did you hear the rumor on the Giants and Darvish? It has seemmed to me all along that the Giants would be uniquely positioned to monotize a high profile Japanese player like Darvish. In fact, the SF Traveler/Visitor Bureau ought to pitch in and pay half the posting fee. Can you imagine how crazy the Japanese media would be on days Darvish pitches.
Come on Larry, you are a maketing guy. Get creative and show some stones. Yes, it would be a BIG wad, but with some smarts it could be recaptured through marketing, merchandise and "rights" deals with Pac Rim entities.
Sabean is nuts if he goes into the season with the infield depth as it is now..The Tin Man starting at 2B?....a Black hole of Offense at SHort?..and the depth at 2b/SS/3b being, what, Fontenot, AAAA Burriss and, by default, Gilespie...It doesn't get much worse then that....A solid infielde, mainly a short stop, is desperatley needed...OTOH, I can live with and roll the dice with the 1B/OF configuration...Hopefully a rebound from Huff and support from Pill and Posey...I'm also betting on good competiton and good perfromances form all of Cabrera, Pagan, St. Nate and Belt...Maybe some wishful thinking but there always has to be some of that
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I wouldn't think they could get anything either for Runzler but it seems like Sabes has turned down a few offers because he didn't want to include him in the deal. I'm diggin all the love for Panda, I love that adorable rolly polly barrel of goo too but if I could trade him straight up for one of the best shortstops in the game then that deal has to be made.
ReplyDeleteAny back problems Hanley may have I am willing to deal with and offensively I think it is safe to say that Hanley is superior to Panda, check their track records and pretty hard to deny.
I also don't subscribe to the theory that 3B is all that tough a position to fill. It is harder then 1B or corner OF of course but SS is by far the hardest position to find talent that can contribute offensively and defensively.
I have said it before but will repeat it because I like the way it sounds, if we had SS and C batting 3 and 4 in our lineup, we would have an advantage that no other team in the league cold match. Few teams have a C or SS who bat at the top half of the lineup and if we locked both of those down, the rest of the lineup would fill itself out.
I am thinking a few years ahead but even starting 2013, if Brown is our CF and leadoff, we would have the 3 hardest spots in the lineup and on defense filled. With the 50 mil or so coming off the books after 2012, one would assume there would be room to fill in around the 3 pieces we would have to put together a pretty bad ass lineup.
I'm actually more worried about 2B than SS in 2012. I agree Sanchez is not a lock to be healthy at all let alone for a full season. Fonty is OK as a backup who starts maybe 20 games a season at each of 2B, SS and 3B, but I'm not sure he's up to a starting gig at any of those positions, in fact, I'm pretty sure he is not. I'm more optimistic about Crawford's D, modest offensive improvment and durability than I am about Sanchez playing even 1 game all season.
ReplyDeleteA pipe dream, yes. But, if Sanchez goes down don't count out Burriss. He has his warts, and he has teased us, then disappointed us.
ReplyDeleteHe is, however, still young enough (27 at opening of spring training) to have a surprise breakout tucked away. He has good size at 6' 200 lbs+ and the boy can run. Great range on defense, particularly going to his right, with an arm strong enough to handle SS - and yes, I know, he has kicked more than his share of routine plays. If something clicks for him on offense, he could be a pretty dynamic player, albeit one who has you scratching your head on occasion.
I'm curious to see what would happen if Emmanuel Burriss was used as a pinch-runner 162 times in a season and nothing else.
ReplyDeleteScott - it was a Buster Olney tweet. Thought it was BS then and apparently it was.
ReplyDeleteDrB - are you having Charlie Finley visions? If Burriss could show the ability to hit the ball more than 250 feet I'd believe a bit. I want to believe, we share a birthday for crying out loud. He put up pretty good AAA numbers, I'm afraid he is just another Giants AAAA player, a la the usual list of suspects.
Agreed about being more worried about Freddy than Crawford at this point. I wish we were in on that Lowrie trade to bolster the oft-injured crew a little.
Pato - the main problem with your SS love is Hanley is gonna have to move off there soon anyway, despite his moaning about Reyes coming. At third, I think Pablo is a far superior bat going forward. I agree with your position analysis, scarcity is always advantageous. But that ship has left the dock with Hanley. And don't play down that back. Backs are terrible frustrating production sucking problems.
I don't know, last year his problem was his shoulder and I can't remember hearing a lot about his back. I'm not saying he would be our SS for the next 7 years or anything but I bet he could still play there at an above average level defensively for another 3.
ReplyDeletePablo is a great Giant and the kind of guy you love to have in your clubhouse (maybe exact opposite of Hanley there too) but the skills that Hanley brings IMO are superior and more consistent over their careers. Pablo could turn out to be like Prince Fielder or he could turn out to be like Cecil Fielder. If I am going to take chances either way then I prefer to take one on Hanley.
3B could also be a good place to play Posey if he heals up nice. Everyone should know already about Posey's flex on defense so 3B shouldn't be a big stretch for a guy who has played every position in college... in the same game. If you need more proof, look no further then the Panda himself who made the exact same position move 3 years ago.
After 3 years of Hanley at SS you could rotate him pretty much anywhere on the infield and he would still be extremely productive for that position, even 1B. Give him a physical before concluding the trade and if his back really is as bad as you say Shankbone, don't do the deal but in a year we could also be talking about Panda's chronic shoulder problems or cheeseburger problems or who knows what else.