Monday, December 26, 2011

Down on the Farm: Dr B's 2012 Giants Top 50 Prospects

The Giants don't have an elite prospect this year such as a Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner. They do have a fairly clear #1 in Gary Brown. They also run very deep with prospects who I think have a chance to have significant major league careers running deep into the honorable mention category. Most analysts would prefer to see 1 or 2 elite prospects at the top than depth, but a lot of these kids are quite young and have a chance to break out into elite status. Having a large number of those increases the probability that some of them will break out. Overall, I think it's a strong farm system, certainly much stronger than when I used to do these in the early-mid 2000's. Remember too that the list would look a lot better with Brandon Belt on it, but Belt has technically graduated even though he's still a prospect for all practical purposes. Anyway, here's the list. We will give a more detailed report on each prospect on on a nearly daily basis running up to Spring Training. As always, please don't get too hung up on the exact order. The main point of the exercise is to get better acquainted with the prospects in the Giants organization.

1. Gary Brown, OF

2. Joe Panik, SS

3. Tommy Joseph, C

4. Heath Hembree, RHP

5. Francisco Peguero, OF

6. Kyle Crick, RHP

7. Andrew Susac, C

8. Eric Surkamp, LHP

9. Hector Sanchez, C

10. Ehire Adrianza, SS

11. Chris Dominguez, 3B

12. Ricky Oropesa, 1B

13. Clayton Blackburn, RHP

14. Jesus Galindo, OF

15. Adalberto Mejia, LHP

16. Jarrett Parker, OF

17. Mike Kickham, LHP

18. Seth Rosin, RHP

19. Josh Osich, LHP

20. Hector Correa, RHP

21. Leonardo Fuentes, OF

22. Rafael Rodriguez, OF

23. Angel Villalona, 1B

24. Joan Gregorio, RHP

25. Charlie Culberson, 2B

26. Roger Kieschnick, OF

27. Dan Otero, RHP

28. Kendry Flores, RHP

29. Conor Gillaspie, 3B

30. Jake Dunning, RHP

31. Austin Fleet, RHP

32. Chris Marlowe, RHP

33. Alex Burg, C/3B/1B

34. Brett Bochy, RHP

35. Adam Duvall, 3B

36. Jacob Dunnington, RHP

37. Chuckie Jones, OF

38. Ryan Cavan, 2B

39. Justin Fitzgerald, RHP

40. Chris Heston, RHP

41. Stephen Harrold, RHP

42. Shawn Payne, OF

43. Kentrell Hill, OF

44. Edward Concepcion, RHP

45. Bryce Bandilla, LHP

46. Ray Black, RHP

47. Cody Hall, RHP

48. Emmanuel Dejesus, LHP

49. Demondre Arnold, RHP

50. Jean Delgado, SS

Honorable Mention: Brett Pill 1B, Stephen Edlefsen RHP, Johnny Monell C, Justin Christian OF, Tyler Graham OF, Kelvin Marte LHP, Ydwin Villegas SS, Chris Lofton OF, Carlos Willoughby 2B, Gaspar Santiago LHP, Brett Krill OF, Ben Thomas 1B, Joe Staley C, Mike Murray C, Dan Burkhart C, Cameron Lamb RHP, Lorenzo Mendoza RHP, Reiner Roibal RHP, Brandon Allen RHP, Matt Graham RHP, Garrett Buechele 3B, Leonardo Ochoa OF, Chris Gloor LHP, Jack Snodgrass LHP, Stephen Shackleford RHP, Keith Bilodeau RHP, Mike Merganthaler OF, Kelby Tomlinson SS, Eric Sim C, Christian Otero SS, Elliott Blair OF, Jose Cuevas 3B, Christian Paulino 3B/2B, Christian Diaz OF, Edwin Escobar LHP, Miguel Ferrer RHP, Luis Angeles RHP, Paul Davis LHP, Brian Maloney RHP, Derek Law RHP, Danny Sandbrink RHP, Ryan Bean RHP.

Dominican Dandies: Randy Ortiz 2B, Carlos Cartegena OF, Marvin Barrios RHP, Simon Mercedes RHP, Royel Astacio, 3B.

Hope I haven't missed anyone. Not too late to add somebody if I did.


  1. 94 players listed on your top 50. A least it is an improvement on last year's 97-player top 50. :)

    A few notes...

    1) Your top 10 is the same collection of players as Baggs, although your top 4 is shuffled a bit. For the record, I like your top 4 better than his.

    2) Fuentes/Rodriguez/Villalona is a pretty sick back-to-back-to-back run of prospects to be in the 20's.

    3) I am surprised to see Jones and Fuentes so low. These guys have probably the highest ceilings in the org, and have legit top 20 prospect potential (MLB-wise).

  2. 12 LHP on the list, 4 in the top 20. Where would Verdugo slot in? Yeah, getting a little obsessed with lefties. If Osich turns out to be injury free he can zoom up quick.

    The guys I'm most excited about are Crick, Blackburn and Mejia. 18-19 year old arms who can hopefully pitch together and provide depth and potential salary relief if things turn out right. Do you have much info on when Mercedes starts pitching again?

    Long in the tooth guys are fading: Culberson & Gillaspie, Kieshnick. Looks like Parker will repeat SJ, not sure how that is going to turn out. Those guys have the potential to get called up if injuries hit though. Question for you about Ricky O - does he have to ability to play a corner OF? That was brought up in a prospect discussion at MCC.

    I'm surprised to see Duvall and Marlowe that low, but that maybe more a reflection of the depth in the system. AnVil will move up or down very quickly I imagine.

  3. DrB,

    Nice post. It will be interesting to hear about the prospects that I don't know too much about. I would have to say that Brett Bochy is pretty low on your chart for me. Also, I do not believe in putting people like Oropesa and Susac here before they have played 1 professional game. I know you are putting them there for their high ceilings but I just feel weird about ranking them until they get out there. Good job and can't wait.

  4. If Justin Christian and Tyler Graham made honorable mention, then I guess Brett Pill should too.

  5. Shankbone,

    Excited to Blackburn and Mejia too. I don't know too much about Crick though. Panik in one season has probably jumped over Culberson on the depth chart. But if Charlie can have a great year in AA or AAA this year, who knows. Bochy was big on Gillaspie at the end of the year. Maybe he will be a utility guy at some point. Was really excited about Parker a few years ago but he didn't live up to the hype. Villalona will be interesting to see if he missed a step and what happens with the former top prospect. If he comes back strong, our minor system gets that much better. I am hoping that he does well even though there are alot of doubters out there.

  6. Anon,

    Yeah, Brett Pill is the guy I missed. Probably should be in the Top 50 on the strength of his showing at the end of last year. Who to drop though? I'll give that some thought. Maybe just put him on honorable mention as he is old for a prospect and first base is a tough position to break into.


    I don't see how you can exclude draftees just because they haven't played a professional game. Yes, there are a lot of draftees who fail, but it is more than just a crapshoot. Draft position, college performance and scouting reports are all information that can help in making a judgement about ranking.

  7. CSS,

    Fuentes is the guy who I think might have a huge breakout. He has a way to go, but he's the guy I think has the potential to be a monster.

  8. Don't go to sleep on Bean this year. Saw a winter workout in Seattle and he looks to be in the mid 90's with command of four pitches. Dunnington another Washington kid who has electric stuff. Should be a fun year.

  9. Thanks for the info on Bean. I can add him to my Honorable Mention list.

  10. I just noticed that De La Cruz was left off. He was a big signing a few years ago, IIRC, and like a number of the others, has not really produced yet, but I have heard him mentioned in the same breath as Fuentes as a guy to keep an eye on. Was he an oversight, or is he, in fact, a guy not even worthy of an honorable mention?

  11. Another note...

    We have a legit top 4 (Brown, Panik, Joseph, Hembree), and there is a possibility that all 4 will be top 100 prospects.

    The last time we had 4 legit prospects who were in the top 100 was Posey, Bum, Villalona, Alderson. 2 established stars, 1 bust, 1 wild card when viewed 3 years later.

    How would you compare this crop to that crop? I do not see a blue-chipper in this crop. Brown I think CAN be an all-star, but I do not see him as a Posey-like game changer. Joseph CAN be a Piazza-type player, but maybe he is more Matt Nokes? Panik has been compared to Franchez. I would be happy with that, but is that the image you get from a blue-chip prospect?

  12. Relaford didn't get an honorable mention?

  13. CSS- I considered De La Cruz, but he's starting to get a bit long in the tooth and just hasn't done a thing yet. I'll look up his player page on and see if there's something I missed.

    I would say Brown and Panik are a notch lower than Posey and Madbum but I like Joseph and Hembree a bit better than Villalona and Alderson back at the time. I mean, I think we'd all be happy if Villalona had performed as well as Joseph at the same age. Hembree has way more pure stuff than Alderson ever thought of having even if he does profile as a reliever.

    Shankbone: I'll take another look at Relaford too. He was drafted very low with not much of a pro resume so far. Gotta cut if off somewhere.

    Dan Burkhart is another guy I probably should put on Honorable Mention.

  14. i believe that monell should be in the top 20, because he is funny

    and to be a good catcher, you gotta have a sense of humor

  15. I was surprised when I had to leave Monell off. I had been thinking he was a slam dunk all along. I've been over it several times and I just don't see anybody to drop to make room for Monell though.

  16. what about armando paniagua,he is a young guy with a electric fastball that can touch easly 97,98 mph and i dont see him anywhere,also saw much better result for mario rodriguez for me finally he did something in the state and he'll play at 23 age next year,what do you think about this guy,and i would like to see more coment about ferrer i really like this kid and how he did in hes USA debut.

  17. and one more question...where is shawn sanford and taylor rogers?

  18. Hadn't heard anything about Paniagua. If he can hit 97/98, then he's obviously a prospect. I see Sanford and Rogers as more organizational talent. Kind of fringy from a prospect standpoint. I'll look up Paniagua and Mario Rodriguez. 23 yo just seems to be awfully old for his level.

  19. Seth Rosin and Stephen Harrold both have been invited to Big League Spring Training (twitter). Both were impressive in the AFL- Rosin was topping out at 97.
    Think both will move quickly.

  20. Stitch,

    Thanks for the tip.

    Rosin, in particular, is a guy I think could break out big time in 2012.

  21. i love that both the SF Giants and SF 49ers both have a guy named Joe Staley, even if the SFG one is somewhere in the minors. they should get together for an SF photo session. imagine the hilarity.