Sunday, May 22, 2016

Game Wrap 5/22/2016: Giants 1 Cubs 0

Madison Bumgarner and the Giants bullpen shut down the Cubs offense while Bumgarner himself drove in the only run of the game as the Giants took the 3 game series from the team with the best record in baseball.  Key Lines:

Madison Bumgarner- 1 for 3, 2B.  BA= .154.  Gregor Blanco led off the bottom of the 5'th inning with a walk, and Bumgarner failed to get a sac bunt down(it is widely suspected that Bummy is not highly motivated to get sac bunts down so he can get a chance to hit another dinger).  He swung away on the 2 strike pitch and drove it over the head of LF Jorge Soler.  Blanco, who had been running on the pitch, coasted home with the only run of the game.

Madison Bumgarner- 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's.  Bumgarner loaded the bases in the first inning after 2 were out, but struck out Addison Russell to get out of it and coasted into the 8'th inning after that.  When he walked Anthony Rizzo with 2 outs in the 8'th after throwing 115 pitches, Bochy came and got him.  Cory Gearrin gave up a line drive to Kris Bryant that found Brandon Crawford's glove at SS for the final out of the 8'th and Bummy's scoreless game was preserved.

Santiago Casilla- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, Save(12).  ERA= 1.93.  First batters are always an adventure with Casilla, especially LH batters and Ben Zobrist put a charge into one that got Denard Span turned around and backpedaling in CF.  Span stayed on his feet long enough to glove it while tumbling backwards onto the warning track.  Casilla blew away Soler and Russell for the final two outs.

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The Win enabled the Giants to gain a half game on the second place Rockies, who were rained out in Pittsburgh, for a 4 game lead in the NL West.  The Dodgers won a marathon 17 inning game against the Padres 9-5, to remain 4.5 games back in 3'rd place.  The Dodgers absolutely shredded their bullpen in the process and even used Ross Stripling, who was the scheduled starter for Tuesday, for 3 innings.  The D'Backs topped the Cardinals 7-2 to remain in 4'th place, 6 games behind the Giants while the Last Place Padres slipped to 7.5 games back.

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The Padres come to town for a 3 game series starting tomorrow evening with Johnny Cueto facing Drew Pomeranz.

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I feel like this was a statement series by the Giants.  Not only did they prove they could recover and win after breaking their win streak, they served notice to the Cubs that the road to the World Series still leads through San Francisco in even years and the Giants can take anybody in a short series, maybe even a long series!

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It will be interesting to see if this weekend's series in San Diego, particularly the marathon game today with the burning of Stripling's next start will force the Dodgers front office hand on Julio Urias.  Will we see his MLB debut this week?

16 comments:

  1. Giants 4-5-1 take on Cubs 1-2-3 and take 2 of 3. That'd bodes well for a 7 game playoff series where MadBum, Cueto, and Shark get 6 with Cain filling in for one game. Arrieta and the offense are really good. Hendricks is not a #3.

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    1. Hendricks pitched like a #3 last night. This game could have gone either way. Still a great series and a statement series for the Giants.

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  2. What do you make of Duffy? He's been pretty bad with the bat on the road (.122). But it's not like it's all bad and it's time to call up Arroyo. His glove work has been good as he's tied for first in 3B DRS and ranked 4th (FanGraphs) is over-all 3B defense. He's also hit well at home (.344 with an .846 OPS).

    I just find it odd to see him, just past the quarter-poll in the season, hitting .238.

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    1. I'm not all that surprised by Duffy's season so far. There was always a bit of a feeling that he was playing a big over his head last year so some of this may be normal regression to his true mean. Opposing scouts have had a year to study him and may have discovered a hole or two in his swing. MLB pitchers only need one. There's also a lot of BABIP luck involved as Baggs pointed out a few games ago.

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    2. Duffy's BABIP last year was .336. It's .262 so far this year, so that's most of the problem right there. What's his true BABIP? Probably right around .300 which would put his true longterm BA at around .260-.270 which is just fine if he gives you great D at 3B. An encouraging sign is he has increase his walk rate and decreased his K rate so far this season.

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    3. Duffy's BABIP is .260, but his LD% is higher than last year. His Swing% is a little lower, and his O-Swing% (out of strike zone swing percentage) is even lower. I remember middle of last week the commentators + Baggs all noting that in the midst of his 0fer he'd been putting good swings on the ball and making loud outs. So the SABREs and the eye-test both agree - his slumping numbers thus far don't reflect the good contact he's making, making him a prime candidate to bounce back. And (as you note) his defense has been good too. Still believe in the Duffman. Matt Duffy!

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    4. During Spring Training and the beginning of the season, I noticed what looked like an unusual amount of bad luck with many hard hit balls by Duffy. My impression was that he started pressing soon after, maybe in desperation to make something happen, I dunno. I think he's calmed down in that regard and his pitch selection has cleaned up a bit, and he seems to be making some decent contact once again. The BABIP looks to be lingering though. He just has to do what they all have do in this sitch- keep grinding away and stay positive. It's a difficult game-- hitting the skids at times is just part of it.

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    5. First, Arroyo in AA is hitting .265, with a .660 OPS. He's no savior just now.

      Second, the anomaly of Duffy's hitting so much better at home than on the road suggests that his problems are an artifact of luck. A slugger might get pitched differently and have fielders deployed differently in pitcher's parks and bandboxes, but I would be surprised if there are differences for Duffy. And if there aren't, the BABIP explanation is the only one, other than something related to his home life, that seems to make sense.

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  3. Roberts has been calling for Urias, and he's been shredding AAA. (Kind of like Timmy in 2007.) Wonder if their front office is holding him back with Super Two concerns?

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    1. Knowing who runs the Dodgers front office, I would say that is a fairly safe bet.

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    2. The other thing that comes to mind is Urias' age and the low number of minor-league innings he's thrown. (I think they shut him down early last year to get an operation on his eye.) He might not have the stamina to go 7 innings consistently, which could be an issue with the state of Dodger pen.

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  4. On Urias, he pitched Friday and "lowered his Pacific Coast League leading ERA to a measly 1.10 and has 44 strikeouts in 41 innings," along with a 27 inning scoreless streak. So he's not ready to go Tuesday but still primed for a call-up.

    The Dodgers got "lucky" with their bullpen scorched, they have Kershaw going today... so he'll likely give the pen arms a breather.

    MadBum. Love that guy. Love the narrative he brings with him in a box score. Love his toughness. His tough guy with a touch of silly character (wry smile. deadpan delivery.) Love his on-field performance.

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  5. Duffy's walk rate Is up but i wonder if that's not a two edged sword because, as you all know, the game has all sorts of inexorable checks and balances. told my wife that it seems when Duffy's at bat, the count runs to 0-2 before i blink. taking pitches also puts you in a position to swing at pitches that are not to your liking. etc.

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  6. By the end of the season, I think Duffmans avg will be in the .280s. The improvement in his walk/k rate is a great sign and highlights his growth as a hitter. The league is making adjustments to him but this shows he's making his own also. As long as he keeps his approach he'll run into some doubles and dingerz.

    However, I also think this slow start by duffman shows where Arroyos eventual path to the majors will be. Crawford is too established and I'm a huge believer in Paniks ability to be a perennial all-star, no way I'm moving them. Duffy is great defender and a smart hitter but Arroyo seemingly has a much higher ceiling. It would obviously benefit Arroyo to finally have a solidified position on the diamond as well.

    How good of a hitter do the Giants think Arroyo can become? Are we thinking Panik ability but with a little more power?

    Buster Olney recently talked about the idea of Andrew Miller coming to Giants. I love the idea but dread the prospects we'd have to give up...what do y'all think?

    Fun time to be a Giants fan!

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    1. Maybe Arroyo also Bounces between 3b/LF a la Kevin Mitchell and others. His path doesn't have to be via the infield.

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  7. Dr B,
    Ay thoughts on former Giant farmhand, Tommy Joseph?
    Thanks

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