The Dodgers struck their second deal in 2 days, agreeing to a deal with Japanese RHP Kenta Maeda. Terms of the deal are still murky with reports of a 5 years guarantee with options extending it to 8 years plus a lot of incentives. One thing the deal means is we can stop buzzing about a 5 man LHP rotation as the Dodgers obviously did not sign Maeda to sit on the bench or pitch out of the bullpen. The idea that they were going to go into spring training with Ryu coming off shoulder surgery was a non-starter anyway.
So, what do the Dodgers have in Maeda? For one thing, he is a bit smaller than some of the previous Japanese hurlers who have posted and come to MLB in recent years. His stat lines in Japan are clearly a tick below those of Tanaka and Darvish. His closest comp, according to a Fangraphs analysis, is Kenshin Kawakami. Let's just say Kawakami has not been very good for the Braves. Maeda is not a particularly hard thrower averaging right about 90 MPH with the FB. His strength may be in his secondary pitches which feature tremendous downward movement on a slider and changeup. Like almost all Japanese pitchers, he comes to a complete stop at the top of his windup just before delivering the ball. This is a timing disruption device that helps their stuff play up more than you would ordinarily expect.
The typical history on Japanese pitchers in MLB is they perform great until the league has seen them a time or two after which they become more hittable. They also pitch well as long as they are healthy, but most have had trouble with injuries possibly due to overuse during development in Japan and possibly due to the physical challenge of pitching every 5'th game for 6 months in MLB.
Overall, the additions of Kazmir and Maeda do not appear to be game changers for the Dodgers. With the loss of Zack Greinke, their starting rotation is still less imposing than last year. Compared to the Giants two signings of Cueto and Samardzija, the risks may not be much different, but Cueto/Samardzija have a much higher ceiling. Of course the Giants paid a lot more for their signings, but hey, they had the stash of money and they had the swagger to flash it in the Dodgers faces. So, the roles of big spenders vs penny pinchers are reversed at least for the time being. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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I would add that some of the Asian pitchers who joined the Dodgers looked good with them because they dominated in LA, but once they moved on, their stats looked closer to their road numbers than their sterling LA stats.
ReplyDeleteI thought Kuroda pitched quite well for the Yankees after he left the Dodgers. Probably he's had the most sustained success of the Japanese pitchers.
DeletePrior to signing Cueto, but after Samardzija, the Giants had let it be known they weren't interested in the bidding for Maeda. They liked him, but not for a $20 million posting fee plus the big contract he was likely to get.
ReplyDeleteAnd, of course, I'd rather have Cueto (opt-out and all) for that kind of money.
Yup. Giants did not bother to put in a bid. They had bigger fish to fry.
DeleteThe Giants have long been criticized on another site for what naysayers perceive is a problem of committing too early and paying too much. But what it seems is that the Giants and Diamondback moves have placed the Dodgers in a position where they really had to do something, and their moves are even more of an overpay than anything the Giants have done.
ReplyDeleteNot only that, when you are a high revenue team like the Giants, and your main competition is another high revenue team, you want the best players you can afford. Who cares if it's an "overpay?"
DeleteNow, you could argue that they should have spent less on pitching and left enough to pay for one of the top tier OF's, but the Giants had a meeting to discuss that issue and decided as an organization that they needed to put all their chips on pitching. I happen to agree with that decision.
Agreed. Pitching was absolutely the way to go, and the Giants played their situation pretty well.
DeleteOnce Greinke was off the table, I think the Dodgers have done OK, but they look like they're on their heels, making the best of what is available. By contrast, the Giants went out and got what they needed. It's been a fun winter for Giants fans.
I would say the Giants duo of Cueto/Shark represent significantly less risk than the Bums Kazmir/Maeda. Cueto/Shark have both pitched 200+ MLB innings over the last 5 years. Kazmir has major injury red flags and Maeda has yet to throw inning one, much less 200 innings, in the Bigs. Plus Cueto/Shark have a proven track record of Ace-level high ceiling production. The Bums moves to land starting pitching look like the Giants of recent past - lots of hope, duct tape, and risk, with little upside.
ReplyDeleteI know the Bums are waiting on Urias/De Leon/Holmes/Buehler, but who knows what you got until you're facing the big boys. I'll take the Giants 2016/2017 starters right now.
Happy New Year to all...bring dat WS parade back to SF!!!
Maeda's thrown 200+ innings four of his last 6 seasons including 206 last year. And I don't think he's really going to change his style and throw harder at this point in time so I'm not sure the length of season issue really matters all that much for Maeda.
DeleteOTOH, I think the fact the Dodgers signed him for 8 years is a bit of a head-scratcher as everything I've read is that he projects as a 4th/5th starter (maybe even a #3 for some clubs) in the majors who gets by on command and lacks a wipe-out pitch. But, hey, it's the Dodgers and making sense doesn't seem to be in their management style...
The number of IP is shorthand, isn't it, for at least four variables: number of pitches, number of high-leverage pitches, number of high-pitch innings, and strength of batters faced? Some of these overlap, of course. The better the opposing batters, the more likely that you're in high-leverage situations. But however one wants to fiddle with these stats, they suggest that one can't easily extrapolate from Japanese performance to MLB.
DeleteI saw a discussion on MLB channel where they were saying Japanese MLB teams get every Monday off every week which creates more situations where they pitch in 5 days rest instead of 4, for whatever that's worth.
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