Monday, December 21, 2015

Down on the Farm: DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects

OK, enough kicking this around.  I could work on it another two weeks and have 14 different rankings.  Remember, don't get too hung up on the order here.  The most important part of the exercise is getting to know the Giants prospects better.  This was a tough one to rank.  What the Giants lack in top end talent, they more than make up for in depth  I am quite sure there is at least one name in the Honorable Mention category who will make a fine major leaguer someday.  On with the list!

1.  Christian Arroyo, SS
2.  Tyler Beede, RHP
3.  Phil Bickford, RHP
4.  Mac Williamson, OF
5.  Lucious Fox, SS
6.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP
7.  Adalberto Mejia, LHP
8.  Josh Osich, LHP
9.  Chris Shaw, 1B/OF
10.  Austin Slater, 2B/OF
11.  Chase Johnson, RHP
12.  Sam Coonrod, RHP
13.  Andrew Suarez, LHP
14.  Jordan Johnson, RHP
15.  Aramis Garcia, C
16.  Ray Black, RHP
17.  Rodolfo Martinez, RHP
18.  Jarrett Parker, OF
19.  Chris Stratton, RHP
20.  Mikey Edie, OF
21.  Johneshwy Fargas, OF
22.  Jalen Miller, SS
23.  Kyle Crick, RHP
24.  Joan Gregorio, RHP
25.  Matt Gage, LHP
26.  Hunter Cole, OF
27.  Ryder Jones, 3B
28.  Jonah Arenado, 3B
29.  Miguel Gomez, C/3B
30.  Michael Santos, RHP
31.  CJ Hinojosa, SS
32.  Ronnie Jebavy, OF
33.  Steven Duggar, OF
34.  Ian Gardeck, RHP
35.  Jake Smith, RHP
36.  Derek Law, RHP
37.  Ty Blach, LHP
38  Rando Moreno, SS
39.  Dan Slania, RHP
40.  Martin Agosta, RHP
41.  Christian Jones, LHP
42.  Jose Reyes, RHP
43.  Jason Forjet, RHP
44.  Jose Vizcaino, Jr, 3B
45  Deiyerbert Bolivar, LHP
46.  Logan Webb, RHP
47.  Mac Marshall, LHP
48.  Steven Okert, LHP
49.  Kelvin Beltre, SS
50.  Gustavo Cabrera, OF

Honorable Mention:  Matt Lujan LHP, Mitch Delfino 3B, Tyler Mizenko RHP, Mark Reyes LHP, DJ Snelton LHP, Patrick Young RHP, Nolan Riggs RHP, Ryan Halstead RHP, Cory Taylor RHP, Dominic Mazza, LHP, Luis Pino RHP, Tyler Brown 2B, Dillon Dobson 2B/1B, Kendry Melo RHP, Dylan Brooks RHP, Jack Snodgrass LHP, Daniel Carbonell OF, Hak-Ju Lee SS, Phil McCormick LHP, Ricky Oropesa 1B, Carlos Diaz LHP, Tyler Rogers RHP, Ty Ross C, Seth Harrison OF, Tyler Horan OF, Brian Ragira 1B/DH, Angel Villalona 1B, Tyler Cyr RHP, Dusten Knight RHP, Eury Sanchez RHP, Dylan Davis OF, Christian Paulino OF, Grant Watson LHP, Fernando Pujadas C, Julio Pena OF, Byron Murray OF, Jean Angomas OF, Jose Morel RHP, Matthew Pope RHP, Stetson Woods RHP, Kleiber Rivas C, Cody Brickhouse C, Kevin Rivera 2B, Nathanael Javier 3B, Hector Santiago SS, Trevor Brown C.

Dominican Dandies:  Manuel Geraldo SS, Victor Concepcion RHP, Sandro Cabera LHP, Melvin Adon RHP, Francisco Medina 3B, Sandro Fabian OF, Mecky Coronado, C/DH, Jesus Tona C, Beicker Mendoza OF, Jose Patino OF, Jose Rivero SS, Brayan De Pena OF/1B, Hengerber Medina RHP, Juan Rodriguez OF, Luis Amaya, LHP.

Did I leave anyone out?


  1. Johneshwy Fargas maybe? I think he should be around number 23 or so, no?...:-)

  2. Matt Gage LHP. I'd give him an HM for sure. Personally I'd put him in the late 30s, he's hung in and ate some innings, has a good strike out ratio and doesn't walk too many.

    1. Yep, I had him at #25 on my original list and then missed him when I transcribed it over.


    2. Aggressive ranking! It was very small sample, but Trevor Brown hit 356/422/540 playing 2B rookie ball along side no hit Jalen Miller. Brown is 20, played College of Southern Nevada ball alongside Bickford. Could be a neat story.

    3. Not Trevor Brown here, but Tyler Brown as the 2B. Trevor, the catcher who played some games for the Giants at the end of last season, is the guy I'm somewhat surprised to see as merely an HM.

    4. I like what we saw from Tyler Brown last year, but not ready to put him in the top 50 yet. That is not necessarily a dis at Tyler Brown. This top 50 is very tough to crack! As for Trevor, loved what he did last year replacing Susac, but he has to prove it was more than a cup of coffee for him.

  3. Steve Okert anywhere?

    1. I did forget Okert. That's a problem, though, because who am I going to bump? He seems too good a prospect to be HM, but I'm not sure he's more deserving than anyone else in the top 50. I'll have to give that one some thought.

    2. Personally, I'd lose Osich. Though he'll no doubt be great, he did shed his rookie status last season.

    3. I consider both Parker and Osich to no longer being prospects, so I didn't rank them. I have Okert #11, actually; I think he'll be a valuable member of the bullpen.

    4. Right now Okert seems to have a better chance of becoming a productive major leaguer than Crick so he should be at least somewhere in the 20s.

    5. Apparently Osich is still considered a rookie... He made Baseball America's prospect list I believe. I never realized it, so he isn't in my rankings. But he still has his eligibility, from what I heard.

      Cove Chatter

    6. 1. No idea how osich's status is still intact as he appeared in 35 games last season.

      2. Parker's status IS still intact as he didn't appear in the minimum games in 2015, to qualify.

    7. The criteria for Rookie Eligibility is as follows: 1. Fewer than 130 AB's. 2. Fewer than 50 IP. 3. Less than 45 days on the active 25 man roster not counting September when rosters are expanded.

      I KNOW both Parker and Osich qualify on the first 2 but not sure about the 45 day part.

  4. Would be interesting if you also added your projection on when each of these players might, under ideal circumstances, reach the major leagues.

    1. I will be posting a detailed profile and each of these prospects between now and the start of the season.

  5. Wow, what an effort! Thanks.
    Your list (including HM's) includes 19 players from the 2015 draft, 9 in your top 50, 4 in the top 20. Was this an exceptional draft?
    Heath Slatton, another guy from the 2015 draft, pitched very well in rookie league and for Salem as their best CLOSER, picked in the 18th round.
    Another guy from that draft, pick 14, catcher Matt Winn moved up from rookie ball to Augusta and caught 20 games.
    The highest pick in 2015 (9) who didn't have a good debut is David Graybill.

    1. I do think it was a great draft, but there is probably a bit of shiny new toy bias involved.

  6. Doc, it might be kinda fun to see your last 3-4-5 years of top 50 lists, side-by-side. See who panned out, who didn't, who came out of nowhere, etc.

    1. That is a lot of work. You can go back and find my previous Top 50's in the Archives posted to the left. I always put them out from the middle to the end of December, so they are not hard to find.

  7. Nice list DrB! You are a little higher on Fox than I am (I'm getting the feeling I'm a little low on him at the moment), but it's pretty amazing to see how many similar names we have in our top 50... Even down to the individual slot. Looking at this group, it is great to see so many players that were added to the organization over the last year. Losing out on Eddie Julio Martinez smarts some, but overall I thought the Giants really boosted their system between the draft and IFA this season.

    Note: I wouldn't be shocked to see Okert ascend to the Majors this year like Osich did last season. He was shaky for parts of 2015, but he's a guy the Giants definitely have their eyes on. He's worth a top 30 spot in my humble opinion.

    Cove Chatter

    1. Thanks, Covechatter. Okert is a very tough guy to rank and it's not easier due to the extreme depth of the Giants farm system right now.

  8. Thanks Dr B. Appreciate the time and effort you put into this.

  9. Thank you for the effort.

    1. I would put Osich as 'arrived.' I have my doubts he goes back down.

    2. What happened to Steve Okert? I know he struggled last year, but the year before he was all the talk as the future Affeldt replacement/star LH reliever and was in some Top-10s at the beginning of 2015. Baseball Prospectus had him at 7 (just above Strickland at 8) and well ahead of Osich who as in the low teens if I remember right. I know MLB ranked him high, too.

    3. I'd probably put Crick ahead of Stratton. But that's only because I think he has a greater chance of turning into a 'high value' reliever.

    4. I think all of our 3B prospects field worse than Adam Duvall (in fielding percentage). But I guess the Top-50 needs filling out. But if you need to drop someone to put Okert in, I would suggest that's a good group to cull from.

    5. Almost surprised to see Williamson that high up there. But, like Parker, he's another guy who can knock the cover off the ball. His K-rate is also lower and he's a surprisingly good fielder with a nice turn of speed for a big man.

    1. Thanks for the comments, Moses.

      1. See my comments about Osich and Parker's eligibility in an earlier comment thread.

      2. Okert had a rough season last year which makes 2016 a pivotal year for him. The fact that he was so good in 2014 and so bad last year is making it tough to rank him.

      3. Crick vs Stratton is a classic example of proximity vs ceiling. Crick has a high ceiling, but his bust potential is about as high as it gets right now.

      4. Fielding percentage, especially in the minors, is a terrible stat. I could be wrong, but I believe all the 3B prospects project to field much better than Duvall.

      5. Not sure why you would be surprised to see Mac that high. He has the trifecta of close proximity, high ceiling and strong performance on the field.

  10. would love to see Santos a little bit higher somewhere between Aramis and Jordan J. high ceiling and great makeup.

    1. I guess I'd just like to see a bit more in performance out of Santos to rank him higher, but he is an exciting prospect and another example of the great depth in the system.

  11. Great list! Finally someone gives Williamson some love. I think he makes an impact this year.

    1. The way the Hot Stove League is playing out, I agree that Big Mac has an opportunity to grab the LF job by no later than midseason. I think he will crush it!

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    1. I'll let it go this one time. Just to be clear, I do not know anything about this company nor do I endorse the products.

      Dr B