I guess I could have entitled this post Don't Sleep On Kyle Blanks! You see, Kyle Blanks is what some folks might call a deep sleeper…..OK, you get the idea. The Giants signed Kyle Blanks to a minor league contract practically the same day the Hot Stove got lit, early this offseason. You may remember Blanks from his days as a SD Padre. Yeah, that guy! Here's the vitals on Kyle Blanks: 29 yo, B-R, T-R, 6'6", 265 lbs. Yes, you read that right, 265 lbs.!
I'm not going to bore you with a recitation of his minor league career. Instead, I'll just post his career minor league numbers: .303/.392/.518, 102 HR, 2202 AB. Yep, those are mighty good offensive numbers there. What about his MLB record? To get a full appreciation of who Kyle Blanks is and where he stands in his career, I think you need to see the progression of his numbers over the years since he made his MLB debut in 2009. Keep in mind that he has suffered multiple injuries over the years which have contributed to his relative lack of playing time:
2009(Padres): .250/.355/.514, 10 HR, 10.5 BB%, 32.0 K%, 172 PA.
2010(Padres): .157/.283/.324, 3 HR, 12.5 BB%, 38.3 K%, 120 PA.
2011(Padres): .229/.300/.406, 7 HR, 8.4 BB%, 26.8 K%, 190 PA.
2012(Padres): 6 PA.
2013(Padres): .243/.305/.379, 8 HR, 6.8 BB%, 27.6 K%, 308 PA.
2014(2 Teams): .309/.409/.436, 2 HR, 12.1 BB%, 24.2 K%, 66 PA.
2015(Rangers): .313/.352/.522, 3 HR, 5.6 BB%, 28.2 K%, 71 PA.
MLB(Total): .241/.322/.416, 33 HR, 933 PA.
2016(Steamer): .255/.320/.432.
I've seen some comments that Blanks is this year's Justin Maxwell. That is definitely a comp you might think of at first glance. For comparison's sake, here are Justin Maxwell's MLB totals and his 2016 Steamer projection:
MLB(Total): .220/.303/.399.
2016(Steamer): .229/.291/.383.
Pretty big difference there. Of course, Maxwell had the added advantage of being able to play a passable CF while Blanks is pretty much tied to 1B and LF. Blanks is, however, an average to slightly above average fielder at those 2 positions by UZR metrics. One other comp you may be wondering about is K rates. Although career wise, there is not much difference with Maxwell at 31.1% vs 29.5 % for Blanks, you can see that Blanks has not had a K rate above 30% since 2010, while Maxwell's 27.7% last year was his lowest in several years. In fact, since 2010, the difference is 30.9% for Maxwell and 27.1% for Blanks. Overall, I think you have to say Blanks is the better hitter of the two by a significant margin.
One Fangraphs writer likes Blanks as a RH platoon bat. He threw out this comp vs LHP's 2013-2105:
Kyle Blanks: .294/.370/.519, OPS= .889 in 160 AB.
Matt Holliday: .289/.419/.467, OPS= .886 in 315 AB's.
BTW, Blanks has hit .300 or better against both RHP's and LHP's the past 2 seasons albeit in a SSS.
So, what's the take home message of all this? The Giants may have their LF masher with average defense sitting right under their noses for the price of a minor league contract. Add in that they also have Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson who also deserve shots at the role, they may not need a LF as badly as some analysts are thinking. Of course, Blanks needs to stay healthy to fill that role, which has been a challenge for him.
The keys for Blanks are 1. Staying healthy 2. Getting a chance to play.
With Buster Posey needing to play 1B in about 20-30 games to save his legs, barring injury to Brandon Belt, Kyle Blanks needs to pray the Giants don't bring in a high priced LF.
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I had a similar thought to you regarding Blanks when the Giants signed him. So, good titling!
ReplyDeleteI was thinking of another player when I looked at his numbers: Gregor Blanco. Not because he is anything like him, but more that his MLB numbers are actually very decent and it appears that the main things that makes him not a major leaguer now is healthy and opportunity to play. But more the former (more the latter for Blanco).
Do you think the Giants will ever get Posey to play 140 games at catcher? They talked about that a couple of years ago, but never got around to it. Then he faded totally at the end of the season, not even playing that many.
I don't really expect the Giants to get anyone that big in LF, the best would be someone like Byrd. The lineup is already pretty good without adding another player. It would be gilding the lily, really. So I think Blanks and the others will get their chances in LF.
I think I recall someone asking Boch or Bobby Evans about Buster and how many games he would catch. I seem to recall the answer was about 120-130.
DeleteOK, that was probably recently. I am thinking back to, I think, the 2013, maybe 2014 season, where Sabean said at the start of the season that the Giants were planning on playing Belt 150 games at 1B (so that probably means 2014 season) and thus Posey, if he wants to play in 140+ games, will need to catch that many games.
DeleteThen, of course, he tired out by the end of the season, even with playing many games at 1B because of Belt's concussion from Scutaro, so that plan probably went out the window.
So I was just wondering if you thought they would still push him, especially since he's getting near the age when catchers poop out defensively, to get to 140.
That steamer protection is close to Williamson's 251/313/381.
ReplyDeleteWhile there is a decent amount of excitement around Williamson, he's still a couple years removed from his dominating a level. So another year at AAA with Banks as the cushion/placeholder? Not a bad plan.
Let's see, Williamson's Steamer OPS is .696 and Blanks' is .752. Not sure how close that is.
DeleteNot very close at all. Average NL LF had .749 OPS. Williamson's projected OPS is only average if he was a catcher or SS.
DeleteI would never say "this years Justin Maxwell" with any hint of optimism. Maxwell had a hot start and then fizzled. He was kept in the lineup way too long and should have been DFA'd about June 30th. Instead he played July and August to the tune of 86PA with a total of 16 hits and 26K/9BB. I am betting Parker or Williamson would have hit way more than 16 hits over 2 months. Don't get me wrong, Blanks would be a good bat off the bench and an occasional start but I would not want him starting over Blanco, Parker or Williamson. I think those 3 have more potential. I do not see Parker being an everyday player unless he finds a way to cut down on K's. Williamson I believe could be an everyday player. Over his career he has a K% of 20% and BB% of 9% which is nice. He has hit for average and power every step of the way minus a sub par AAA but that could be due to timing issues coming back from a long injury. He finished strong and had one hell of a Fall League hitting .370 against many top pitching prospects. I would feel more comfortable giving Mac some starts here and there.
ReplyDeleteKind of the point of the post is that Kyle Blanks is NOT "this year's Justin Maxwell." Sorry if that did not come through clearly.
DeleteYou came across very clearly, starting with "Pretty big difference there", as you were comparing Blank's Steamer projection with Maxwell's, then showed how Blank was superior to Maxwell via peripherals.
DeleteBut I agree to some degree with Roger about Mac (not saying DrB was not in agreement). I feel very comfortable giving Mac starts in LF, he had a great AFL, as well as doing OK in his AAA debut, not losing a step, hitting as well there as in AA. And his peripherals in AFL was superlative, 11 BB/11 K's, 85% contact rate (though he was almost 2 years older than the league, so there's that too).
But I agree more with DrB's premise for his post, that Blanks could be the LF masher with decent defense there. By RTot, he's below average a lot, but by DRS, which is advanced, he's actually a plus defender in LF, almost 1 win per season. He's similarly good at 1B defensively as well. And per UZR/150, he's over 1 win per season at both LF and 1B. So at worse, he's average defensively, if you average across the three, maybe slightly above.
Add to that average OPS - and Steamer has him at 100 wRC+ - and you have a Gregor Blanco type of reserve player, someone who can step in should a regular go down, and give you average production, which is a valuable asset to have, when most teams only have a replacement level substitute.
This has been a classic Sabean and gang move over the past decade or so. The Giants have promising prospects who can play a position, so they start the season off with a vet there who gives the promising prospects good competition, but not so good that if they excel, that the Giants wouldn't be comfortable jettisoning the vet or moving him into reserve role, in order to play the prospect.
That is the right move to do, like with McGehee and Duffy last season, you risk mitigate by having a probable floor with a vet but leave the door open for the prospect to excel and take the job. We hoped that Duffy would excel, but at the time we got McGehee, that was a lot more hope than assurance. And then Duffy blew the doors out in spring training, pushing Adrianza off the roster. But if he didn't, at least we had McGehee around. But you can never account for when injuries come into play, like it with with Casey, right on the first day of the season too.
I'm not saying they should hand the job to Blanks, but I am fairly confident that a winner of competition between Blanks, Parker and Mac would do a great job in LF.
DeleteI was not very clear with what I was saying about Maxwell. I know that you were trying to show that Blanks could be much better than Maxwell. I was being sarcastic on the comments you said you read about Blanks being this year's Maxwell. I know you were not saying that and that you only read that from other sites. Sorry I was not clear on that. I listen to 1090AM out of San Diego quite a bit and have followed Blanks throughout his Padre career. I always liked Blanks and thought if he could only stay healthy he could be a decent option. However, I believe Williamson is the future. To take ABs away from him for a 29 year old reclamation project in my opinion is not too smart. As of right now I would like Blanco to get most of the ABs unless we sign another LF. I would also like to see Williamson get a good 300 or so ABs this year to see what he is capable of. But Blanco is still my pick for LF unless we sign someone else. I want to see the competition for he 4th and 5th outfielders be Parker, Williamson and Blanks. It would be nice to see Parker and Williamson get the job because they are home grown and both had their moments last year either for the club or the Fall League.
DeleteBefore the 2014 season I kind of thought that way about Parker and dismissed him. And I carried that belief through 2014. But even before his call up last year I noticed that despite his high K-rate he had a high OPB, BB rate and BABIP in second-season AA and his AAA career. So I looked all the videos I could see of him and read all I could read.
DeleteAs far as I can tell Parker is an outlier, even for baseball players, when it comes to BABIP production. And I don't mean 'fluke.' I mean he's got good speed to first base (fast and left handed) and for a guy with speed, he's got a lot of pure power. Consequently, while he strikes out more than you'd like, he makes a LOT of hard contact, hit's a lot of line drives and has the speed to beat out infield hits when he makes poor contact. All of which drive a high BABIP.
And when I'm talking power, even his grounders, where he clearly didn't barrell up the ball very well, sound like gunshots. Or, Bochy said: “It’s an effortless swing and it’s got that sound to it. I’m not comparing him to Bonds, but those kind of hitters, when it’s in the air, you assume it’s gone.”
So I'm cautiously optimistic about Parker. I'd like to see a call up. I'd like to see if he could replicate his 2014 AA numbers in the majors.
Whoever the Giants sign to play LF absolutely MUST be able to play CF. It makes no sense to sign a LF who can't play for 3 or 4 years and effectively block Williamson/Parker (and even Blanks) for the foreseeable future. As much as I love the thought of Alex Gordon, it doesn't make sense to me. I think Gerardo Parra would be a great sign.
ReplyDeleteApparently The Giants are making a run at Cueto today.
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
I'm excited. For quite some time he's been my #1 FA pitcher wish. We'll just have wait and see now.
DeleteThe Giants and right-hander Johnny Cueto have agreed to terms, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The contract is pending a physical. Cueto is a client of agent Bryce Dixon.
DeleteRichard in Winnipeg Yikes
Very bold move here. I had Cueto a a bit of a tier tweener. Not quite up there with Price/Greinke but better than the second tier options of Samardzija, Leake, etc.
DeleteThis move does two things: 1. Improves the Giants rotation. 2. Takes access to the top pitcher left on the market away from the Dodgers or D'Backs. Of course, the Dodgers might empty their farm system out to get Chris Sale, but at least they would have to deplete the farm to do it.
3:37pm: The Giants have confirmed the signing of Cueto to a six-year deal, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, though it’s still pending a physical.
DeleteESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Cueto will be guaranteed $130MM wTwitter link). The contract contains both a club option for the 2017 season and an opt-out clause after two seasons, which would give Cueto the ability to hit the free-agent market again in advance of his age-32 season. As we saw with Zack Greinke this winter, that timing can be highly beneficial to a pitcher.
Richard in Winnipeg
I checked Cotts, with Peavy, Pagan,and Casilla ,Romo Lopez coming off next year, there is $42 Million for raises and add on next year. We look good moving forward. Barring the unforeseen injury.
DeleteRichard in Winnipeg
Oooooohhhhhhh SNAP!
Delete..Not my most contributive post, but I JUST had to say it. I'm at work, or I'd be gushing on Evans & the Greybeards quite a bit more!
Completely concur with Doc's 1-2 assessment above. Good move. Chips are in for Ring #4 in 2016!
DeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Interesting about the post-year-2 opt out. Barring injury there is a fair chance he'll do so. If the Giants hang on to their top half dozen starting-pitcher prospects, that's about when most of them should be ready to go. Perhaps the team is expecting an opt out and looking at this as a two-year deal. Just in time to extend the Bum.
DeleteBumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Peavy and Cain is a solid rotation. I don't think the Dodgers could match that unless they acquire Sale and/or Fernandez which would require them to hand over Seager, Urias, plus, plus, etc. We are looking great right now. How about make a trade for an upgraded CF who can play the corners and we are ready for 2016. I hear the Rockies are dangling Charlie Blackmon. That would be an excellent pickup! He had 176 hits to go with 17HR and 43SB.
ReplyDeleteNow the Giants can afford to trade a pitching prospect for a CF. It would hurt to part with Beede or Bickford, but the Giants do have some depth in SP in the lower minors and Heston and Blackburn would hopefully be serviceable #4 and #5 starters in the short term to replace Peavy and Cain. I like this move since it gives us a solid top 3. Hopefully Cueto remains healthy... I am confident the Giants carefully checked into his health before making such a large and long commitment.
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