Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Jeff Samardzija

The Giants moved quickly to stop the bleeding after losing out in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes.  The next tier consisted of Johhny Cueto, Samardzija, Mike Leake and possibly Wei-Yin Chen.  With Grienke signed with a division rival, but not the Dodgers, and the Dodgers likely even more desperate to cover the loss of one of their prized aces, it was imperative the Giants get the drop on the Bad Guys and get one of those second tier guys signed.  Don't forget, the D'Backs are still making noise about Leake, the Yankees are thought to be nearly desperate for pitching as are the Cardinals and Cubs.  Once the first second tier guy went off the board, the others could fall fast.

The Giants jumped on Samardzija AKA Shark for 5 years/$90 M.  The first season is for $9 M with 4 subsequent seasons at 18 M apiece.  There is a $3 M upfront bonus and another $6 M bonus spread out equally over the final 4 seasons.  There are no deferred payments.  There is a partial no trade clause with 8 teams allowed on the list.  I am a bit confused as to what the benefit of the low first year salary is.  The Giants seem to have plenty of cashish, but are reluctant to cross the Luxury Tax Threshold, but the Luxury Tax is calculated by the AAV of the contract which is not helped by the backloading.  Anyway, I'll let someone else worry about that.  Bottom line is they get a pitcher they have been interested in for years at a total price of less than half of what the D'Backs are paying Greinke.  The Giants clearly have the financial wherewithal, Luxury Tax cap or no cap, to sign another second tier guy or else a lower tier pitcher plus a top tier OF.

I've always like Jeff Samardzija.  I remember watching him pitch against the Giants on TV when he was with the Cubs and thinking how great a fit he would be in the Giants rotation.  He is coming off a down season with the White Sox.  I am not going to list his stats here.  You can look them up on Fangraphs or mlb.com.  I will just mention a few things which may help calm your fears that last season may be the beginning of a slide into oblivion:

1.  Last year, Samardzija pitched half his games in a bandbox ballpark and he pitched all of his games in front of a horrific defensive team.  Thanks to Shankbone for linking to a Fangraphs article by Tony Blengino showing statistical evidence that those two factors cost him a full run in ERA.

2.  It was rather striking that Samardzija's use of his two seam FB declined precipitously with a corresponding rise in the use of his cutter.  Not sure what that is all about, but the Giants generally encourage their pitchers to command both sides of the plate with the FB, and Rags is knows as something of a cutter guru.  I think there is a good chance they will be able to "fix" whatever went wrong there last year.

3.  Samardzia's FB velocity remained very stable at just over 94 MPH last year so there is no indication of any drop off in FB velocity.

In addition to the above 3 points, despite entering his age 31 season, Samardzija has relatively little mileage on his arm having pitched slightly fewer innings than Mike Leake who is 2 years younger, and less than half of Greinke's innings who is just one year older.

I like the signing.  There are risks to any FA contract, especially for pitchers, but there is every indication that this is actually a buy-low opportunity that the Giants jumped on, finally beating out their competitors and getting what could be a bargain in the process.

The one big downside is losing the 2016 first round draft pick, but it was probably unrealistic to think they were going to hang onto that give the situation this offseason.