It was a strange day at MLB's Winter Meetings as the Giants did not make any headlines, but continued to appear to want to make deals. The day started fast with the announcement of Aroldis Chapman going to the Dodgers for a couple of second tier prospects. This move continued and accelerated the trend of rich teams stockpiling closers to try to get depth in their bullpens as the Dodgers already had one of the better closers in the game in Kenley Jansen. What's more, both Chapman and Jansen are on schedule to be free agents at the end of the 2016 season.
As the day wore on and no official announcement was forthcoming, the deal seemed to fall apart in slow motion. Hastily written analysis articles were left twisting in the wind. First, there were accusations that the Dodgers had jumped the gun on the announcement to try to trigger another trade. Then we heard that other teams were jumping in and trying to top the Dodgers offer. Then, the blockbuster story was broken by none other than Yahoo Sports: There is a police report from October 30 of a domestic violence report in which Chapman was alleged to choke his girlfriend, then went out to his garage and discharged a firearm 8 times, 8 times! Chapman was not arrested and no charges have been filed. MLB has the duty, under changes to the CBA, to do their own investigation and has the authority to meet out it's own punishment. Then, Walt Jocketty made the formal announcement that the deal is on indefinite hold as is likely any other potential deal. Wow! A very bold, but strange move by the Dodgers blew up in their face!
One deal the Dodgers apparently did complete was the signing of RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, to a 3 year/$45 M contract. Iwakuma has been a good pitcher for the Mariners when healthy, but has missed chunks of time with injuries. Moreover, he is 35 years old, as old as Jeff Samardzija will be at the end of his contract with the Giants. Needless to say, Dodgers fans are starting to rumble about Andrew Friedman and Dodgers management, who seem to be struggling with the translation of "Moneyball" tactics into a big spending environment.
Overshadowed by the Dodgers machinations, was a pretty significant trade that sent LHP Wade Miley and a pitching prospect from the BoSox to the Mariners for LHP Roenis Elias and RHP Carson Smith. I am not sure what to make of this trade. I really like Wade Miley and thought he might be a nice trade target for the Giants on a buy low deal. This really isn't buying low, though. Elias is a comparable pitcher and Smith was the Mariners closer in the second half of 2015 putting up tremendous numbers. I like Miley a little better than Elias, but Smith would seem to be way more valuable than the difference. I'm going to call this one a clear win for Boston.
Today is shaping up to be decision day for Ben Zobrist. He likes SF and likes the Giants but prefers to play 2B, so he's probably going to either Washington or the Mets. A Zobrist decision could create a domino effect with other FA OF's, or it might not as most teams are still focused on pitching.
The wildest scariest speculation I heard on the MLB channel last night was the idea of the ChiSox trading Chris Sale to the Dodgers for a shipload of prospects. Do Not Want That To Happen!
Oh, and Jon Heyman predicted Cespedes ends up with the Giants.
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I agree with your take that the BoSox got the better of the Ms on the Miley trade. I saw (& heard on the radio) several games that Elias pitched, and from my non-SABR fan perspective, he was doing a good job (for a young Cubano called up from Tacoma, 5-8 record not withstanding). As you noted, Carson Smith was dealing the heat as the Ms new closer.
ReplyDeleteI guess Cespedes would be a good sign for all the reasons listed yesterday. I still like Blanco and JP. Angel is likely done after this year.
MLB TV did also speculate a bit last night about the Hometown 9 signing Johnny Cueto...and quite possibly for less than the original D-Backs offer that he spurned. Hmmm...
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Good Stuff..Would love Zobrist as LF but also to provide some depth and insurance for a Duffy or Craw injury (not Panik)....But, if he really wants tp play 2B ,most of the time..Good luck elsewhe!
ReplyDeleteIn all the talk of an OF and another starter, and I agree, who is the backup at 3B? Is ther anybody in the system?
Betting Zobie goes to NYM or Wash, do the Giants go for Cespedes 0r Upton or an OF via trade? Still plenty of pitching options both vai trade and FA...
Counting on winning a Maeda posting bid could be very risky..
SteveVA
You do not have to win the posting bid. Chances are a few teams agree to the max posting fee which is $20MM. If more than one team agrees to the max posting bid then all of those teams have an opportunity to talk with Maeda's representation and have one month to strike a deal. I expect more than one team to make a max bid.
DeleteI am not sure what to expect of Maeda since he is from Japan. He overpowers batters there but what will his effect be in the MLB. Chances are he will cost a posting bid of $20MM + an $75-85MM contract. So, the Giants would be looking at an upwards of $100-105MM for an unproven talent. There is quite a bit of risk there. However, if he is as good as everybody says he is then it could be a great deal. I'm on the fence with this one.
Who is the back up 3b? Tomlinson? Adrianza? Is Delfino still in the system? Arenado? Arroyo? Some Minor League Free Agent, a vet like Arias or a former prospect but younger guy?
DeleteSo I checked in on Zobrist's BR page and 8 games at 3b with only 5 starts. I'm not sure one of the "6 positions he can play"(TM) is really 3b any more than it might be CF. He can do it in a pinch, but I don't know if you want him for a week+ at those positions.
If backups were capable of replacing starters for weeks at a time, they'd be starters. Expecting a backup to provide anything other than a replacement level production is overly optimistic.
DeleteI was talking about "super-sub" Zobrist, not backups. If you are paying Zobrist to be replacement level, you are doing it wrong.
DeleteHe got $56mil for 4 years, or 14/year ~ paying for about 2 WAR at the current rate of 1 war to about $7mil.
Agreed. Jose Fernandez or Chris Sale to the Dodgers would really suck. Chris Sale is one guy I would not mind if we "gave up the farm" for. I am talking Arroyo, Beede, Williamson, Blackburn, + etc. He is straight up dominant and still in his prime. Honestly, Bumgarner and Sale would battle it out on who is the ace of the team is. Sale also has a really team friendly deal (5 years /$32.5MM + $12.5MM option in 2018 and $13.5MM option in 2019) which makes it really attractive.
ReplyDeleteIf Jose costs Urias, that might not be the worst thing. Really good, cost controlled starters are really annoying. Potentially great aces with legitimate injury concerns are only sometimes annoying.
DeleteI read that Zobrist really wants to be a second baseman and the Mets and Nationals are looking to play him at that position. So I think he's going to pass on the Giants and they'll have to chase someone else for LF.
ReplyDeleteI've read the Chapman article. I've read the police report. The Dodgers may balk on a PR standpoint, but I still think the odds are they eventually pick him up.
Sale to the Dodgers would be bad. Really bad.
I'm still hoping for Cueto on a 5-year deal. He's never 'the best' pitcher in any year. But he's consistently excellent when healthy and, in some sabermetric models, he's been the second best pitcher in MLB for the past five years because of his consistent excellence. I think he'd be an ideal co-ACE with Bumgarner.
I might be less concerned than many over LF. I think Blanco is perfectly good for the spot. Despite not playing a lot last year, he still pulled down 2.3 WAR in just 373 ABs. That's not shabby. And he's averaged 2.4 WAR/year the past four years despite being a part-timer. I know that's not earth shattering WAR. But 2.4 WAR puts in at 30th to 35th of all OFers on an annual basis and he does it as a part-timer. Plus it would allow the Giants to test-drive Parker and/or Williamson during the season to see if they can take the position in 2017 when Blanco becomes a FA.
I've also heard some talk of Fowler at CF, but Blanco is, as far as the numbers go, better at defense and average and Fowler doesn't have that much more power. I really hope they don't pursue Fowler.
However, I'd also be fine with Cespedes. I never mind upgrading if makes sense and he's really an outstanding player and would be able to give Pence a run for his money as 'best Outfielder' on the Giants.
This! Amen Moses! I agree on all parts.
DeleteLet's Go Giants!
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
I just hope the Giants get "really" creative to make the best roster they can. I don't know if giving Cespedes 6 years is the best answer. Next year is his age 30 season so he would be 36 at the end. I would rather get a guy like Dexter Fowler for 3-4 years and save all of that money to put into the rotation and/or bullpen. We have won without great outfields and this year should be no exception. I do like Justin Upton but his sample size at AT&T is horrible. 200ABs with a .233AVG and 3 HR. Not great at all.
ReplyDeleteI am sick of hearing we aren't a great fit for a trade for certain teams. There MUST be teams that could use prospects like Arroyo, Susac, Beede, etc. Why can't we get creative and find a middle man to trade with that could send a team like the Braves what they need to get Shelby Miller. 3 team trades are rare but they happen. I bet a team like the Rays,Brewers,A's, etc would love some of our prospects that they could send some MLB ready talent to a team such as the Braves.
Since the White Sox seem to be rebuilding I hope Evans picks up the phone and does some due diligence on Sale. Same goes with Fernandez. It doesn't hurt to pick up the phone. You never know what will happen. I think we basically got Pence for nothing. Tommy Joseph,Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz. C'mon. Maybe we could put together a creative package of prospects plus Susac to get one of these pitchers.
I'm not really feeling the Dexter Fowler love. He's not that great in CF and his offensive numbers have been inflated in hitter's parks.
DeleteI agree with you but I think he would be an upgrade on Pagan and also a stop gap for a guy like Williamson, Slater, etc. I just don't feel confident that Cespedes or Gordon will be worth $20MM a year 3-4 years into a contract. Justin Upton is only 27 so he has a chance to be great throughout his contract. However, I do not like Upton's whiff rate and his past performance at AT&T. I don't think the Giants need much in the OF to make it to the playoffs. However, we need guys out there who play 145-150 games. Pagan will get you about 80 if you are lucky. Also, Pagan's D was ranked dead last from last season. A slight improvement on games played, power, and D should do the trick. For those reasons alone I think Fowler would be better than Pagan.
DeleteRich Aurilia gave his opinion on Fowler: park factors would hurt him, too many strikeouts. I've never liked DF very much.
DeleteI'm not a Fowler fan. Blanco is a better OFer than Fowler who has generated a negative UZR/150 and -56 DRS over his career. Blanco, who is not the greatest defensive OFer in MLB, is way ahead of Fowler in those defensive stats. Plus Blanco made some hitting changes in 2015 and seems to have over-come his 'one-or-two crippling slumps' problem he used to have, especially when he lead off...
DeleteTo me the only reason to bring in Fowler would be as a back-up. He's certainly not, in my book, a 'fix' for anything but bench depth.
Re: Friedman and the Dodgers. I don't know why so many of the SABR-fanatics hold him in such reverence. Iwakuma is good, but I'm not sure if a 3-year deal for a 35-year old that will cost a draft pick was all that great of a move. Either way, I'm glad that the Giants' front office is still underrated by a lot of people.
ReplyDeleteNow, when it comes to remaining moves the Giants might make, I think I would be okay with Cespedes. He might have more offensive and defensive upside at this point compared to Justin Upton.
If the Giants really wanted to go big, Heyward is intriguing, though I am concerned about his defense not aging well over the next few years, which is where most of his value is.
Fowler + Cueto/Maeda might be the preferred track I want the Giants to take at this point, with Cueto being the preferred option if his market continues to shrink.
I couldn't help but go check out some Dodger boards yesterday. I wanted to get a pulse on how the FO is seen by hard core fans. It seems like the SBN site true blue has some patience (and reverence) for the process. One thing that stands out to me is how many transactions they have done - lots of sifting. One poster put up a summary - huge numbers. I think there is a little bit of "throw stuff up" to see what sticks. That was the Mat Latos trade, for sure. The other part is Friedman has no hesitation to draft/employ sketchballs, so look for a Chapman deal to go through ultimately - the only reason is hasn't is they are waiting to see if he's disciplined by MLB through their new policies.
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/moneyball-or-sleazeball-andrew-friedman-and-the-future-of-the-dodgers
He has continued that path with his minor league acquisitions by the way.
So far very unimpressed with this Dodger front office. They appear to have been hired to stop the financial bleeding. This next year they pay over 40MM in luxury tax, 40MM in fines for going over IFA. Next year they will continue into the tax, I doubt they'll get to 40MM though, and they won't be able to IFA. The following year they are most likely looking to get under it as the Crawford/Ethier disaster contracts come off the books. Then they'll most likely look to operate like the Washington Nationals if I had to guess a ballpark figure. No word on how the Directv refusal to pick up the Dodger channel will affect anything, but I do know that a lot of long time fans are seriously seriously disillusioned by the lack of TV time.
I agree with your assessment on the Dodgers' front office. If the Giants made some of the moves Friedman has made, Fangraphs would have tons of articles criticizing them. Instead, if Friedman makes them, it's like "What a genius little move the Dodgers have made!"
DeletePersonally, after losing Greinke, I think the Dodgers are in real trouble. They are also gambling that some of their top prospects--such as Julio Urias--are going to be sure things.
This Chapman story is interesting. Apparently the Red Sox were in on him last month, found all this out, and backed away... quietly. Now its sort of unclear who/what leaked, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Friedman wasn't trying to leverage this info into getting the Reds to take lesser prospects. And leaked the trade to exert pressure only to have it blow up.
Delete