Yesterday, Grant Brisbee of mccoveychronicles.com wrote a piece entitled "The Giants Need to Look for a Centerfielder Right Now." In it, Grant rightly points out that Angel Pagan is not only coming off a terrible, injury plagued season, his second in a row, but 2016 is the final year of his contract. Backup Gregor Blanco is currently penciled in as the starting LF, and he's going to be a free agent after 2016 too. On top of all that, the 2016-2107 free agent class projects to be dismally weak at just about all positions, including CF, so if the Giants don't want to be stuck without a CF for 2017, they better be finding one now.
Someone posted a reference to that article in a comment yesterday, perhaps thinking Grant's thesis is something I disagree with. In fact, I do not disagree! CF is probably the shakiest position the Giants have going into 2016, and they have nothing there for 2017 other than possibly extending Gregor Blanco's contract. I don't think they or anyone else thinks Angel Pagan will be back in 2017. While I agree with the thesis of Grant's article, what the Giants NEED to do and what the CAN or WILL do are different things. Let's start by taking a look at the current CF free agent crop:
Dexter Fowler put up nice numbers last year for the Cubs. Dexter Fowler is also a career negative defensive CF and his 16 HR's with the Cubs would likely turn into single digits with the Giants due to park factors. Do you really want the Giants to invest in a multiyear contract with THAT?
Denard Span is a fine CF when he is healthy. He played 61 games last year and is coming of HIP SURGERY, for crying out loud! Do you really think that is a better bet than Angel Pagan?
Austin Jackson is at least a slightly plus defender in CF, but he's basically stopped hitting.
Drew Stubbs hit under .200 in Coors Field last year and is currently a poor man's Justin Maxwell.
There may be something out there on the trade market:
Maybe the Giants could convince the Reds to include Billy Hamilton in their firesale for 2 or 5 top prospects? The BoSox have at least 4 CF's, but no corner OF's and unclear needs in return. Perhaps the Blue Jays might part with one of Kevin Pillar or Dalton Pompey? The Marlins would probably trade Marcel Ozuna, but so far want MLB talent in return. The Rays might part with either Desmond Jennings, who is also coming off an injury, or Mikie Mahtook.
So that is a summary of what the Giants CAN do. It's not an inspiring list of options. The other question is what they WILL do. Bruce Bochy has said that Angel Pagan played much better in September when finally healthy coming off a DL stint. Boch went on to say he considers Pagan his CF in 2016. There is another report of a meeting the Giants management had before the Winter Meetings to set priorities. Bochy reportedly told the higher-ups to give him another SP who could go 200 innings and he would sort out LF. Notice he said he would sort out LF, not CF!
Lastly, let's look at the 2016/2017 class of FA CF's: That list currently includes Blanco and Pagan plus Carlos Gomez, John Jay, maybe Cameron Maybin($9 M option), Colby Rasmus, Sam Fuld, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp($13 M option), Craig Gentry and Peter Bourjos. Is that class really all that much worse than the current one?
In conclusion, yes, the Giants do need to be looking for a CF now and the Giants probably know that. The problem is options are unappealing and there does not seem to be much downside to waiting, possibly until mid-season 2016 or even into next offseason.
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Another option worth considering would be to make a trade with the Atlanta Braves for Ender Infiarte. Infiarte could be used in left field in 2016 and then moved over to center field in 2017 with Mac Williamson moving into the left field slot.
ReplyDeleteHope you're ready to sell the farm for Inciarte. This trade would likely include Beede and Arroyo for starters, likely also Blackburn/Williamson, a Johnson, and much more. It leaves a huge question mark of how to replace Peavy next year & Cain the year after. All I'm saying, and what Doc B has said, is that the trade market is crazy at present - and Atlanta is at the heart of that insanity. In addition, Atlanta has no interest in letting go of a great young player who's cost controlled, and whom they just sought out and acquired in a trade.
DeleteIt's odd to me that so many people are suggesting going after Inciarte. Not that he isn't a perfect piece for the team, but he's about the most unobtainable player in the trade market right now, relative to price.
Hmm. I'll withdraw a piece of my comment to a certain degree: Listening to KNBR680 right now & hearing Dave Fleming mention that Inciarte is known to be "available". That's definitely a draw to a degree. What's his price tag though? I'd not give up he whole farm for the kid, and I'd prefer Williamson be considered a big piece of the trade, but that's a guy I'd put some stock into -
DeleteAnybody else hearing about his availability? Maybe that one just passed me by in the last month after he was traded....
This is basically the same issue the Giants faced on starting pitching at the beginning of the off season except their was a number of great SP available. They knew that next year's crop of SP is very weak and they had to do something this year. The trade market is so ridiculous right now and teams are taking advantage and asking for a king's ransom. This year and next year's free agents are average at best. So what do the Giants do? 3 World Series rings will tell you that they do not need to do much. 2010 (Ross, Torres, Schierholtz, Burrell), 2012 (Pagan, Pence, Blanco), 2014 (Blanco, Pence, Ishikawa, Perez, Morse). Besides Pence their is not a lot of name recognition. I think the Giants only need to focus on defense and a plate presence that hits over the Mendoza line. I would love to have Kevin Pillar but that trade isn't happening. Jake Marisnick is a name that could be a possible target and relatively cheap considering. He hitting needs some work but he defense is plus plus. He is a guy who could be top 10 in Defense Runs Saved and UZR 150. He has speed on the bases and has more power than Pagan and Blanco. Also, he is not a free agent until 2021.
ReplyDeletePillar, Roger would be awesome move. He covers so much field for the Jays and his a little pop. Hmmm interesting.
DeleteRichard in Winnipeg
Parker played 123 games in CF in the minors and 4 last year. Is he not capable of backing up blanco if pagan were to break again?
ReplyDeleteThe thing with Blanco, God bless him, is he has never played in the Field for 1100 innings a season. So the back up is probably playing at least 1/3 of the time to 1/2 ( depending on aches pains and pitching match ups) the innings, Would a pitching centered teams that views itself as a contender really want to do that with Parker in CF!
Delete- daveinexile
He's played about 500 innings per year in CF. If Pagan can play about 900 (his 4 year average with the Giants) you're looking for a 100 innings plus or minus. Is he that bad he could fill that Juan Perez role?
DeleteJust because he hasn't, doesn't mean he can't.
DeleteThe 900 innings to Pagan is the rub though. If the Giants get 900 healthy Pagan inning 2016 looks good but if I was a betting man I take the under on that. Also it does very little to help CF for 2017. In fact probably weakens the franchise ability to bargin or lure a competent CF.
DeleteI would be all for extending Blanco but we have to realize only be part of a solution but not " the solution" of CF in the next 3 seasons. If we are banking on Parker to be the other half of the CF solution the fans will turn ugly on him for not being able to meet such an unrealistic expectation. I would rather not see that.
- Daveinexile
I realize Kelby isn't the answer, but is someone like Slater or Cole the answer? It looks like Slater played some CF in the minors (but not last year) and Cole played all three last year(and hit like gang busters in AA, which is always good). Assuming normal progression, Cole could be ready in 2017 and maybe Slater too.
ReplyDeleteI believe Cole and Slater are both strictly corner guys.
DeleteI'm for Parker playing CF this year and Pagan on the bench. Makes the most sense. Oh, and you do not under any circumstances want Billy Hamilton. Couldn't hit water falling out of a boat.
ReplyDeleteNow if only the team would sign Gordon, that would be one heckuva offense.
The Giants are not going to turn CF over to Parker!
DeleteSee what happens.
ReplyDeleteWith Panik and Pence back in 2015's NL best BA lineup, how bad can it be for hitting?
If Pagan/Blanco can't do the job when fresh, then look around.
As for Parker's OFing, we watched him all year in Sacramento, we had seats just beyond the infild in shallow RF. He is fast, has a strong arm, but doesn't take the best routes. He gets as many errors as assists, if that means anything. Those of you who watched him in San Jose in 2011-2012 may have a different memory, but I don't think he is nearly as good as Blanco (other than a stronger arm). I'd like to hear your opinions if you saw him there. For the River Cats he was not as proficient as Ford, Lollis, and even Williamson, although the latter was mostly in LF.
Fowler may be the right choice as long as they're just dropping a 2-year contract on him. I think we have to face the reality that he's (a) a clear upgrade over Pagan and (b) he's probably the best CF available this year or next. Which is kind of sad, but it's the reality we have to deal with.
ReplyDelete1. His over-all defense is, per FAngraphs, average for the position. It may not be great, but it's better than Pagan's and Fangraphs rated him mid-pack in CF defense (Fowler's 13th, just behind Mike Trout) last year. His biggest weakness is his arm (below average), his greatest asset is his range (above average) -- both of which are better than Pagan's (worst & second worst). In short, defensively speaking, he's probably not going to kill you, but he's not certainly not going to save you.
2. His BA isn't great because he strikes out more than you'd like for someone with his modest power. However,...
3. He can take a walk. Plus when he makes contact, he makes better contact and, thus, he is better at successfully putting batted balls into play than Pagan who has a fairly light bat. Consequently, Fowler has a better OBP (career average of .363) than Pagan has ever had even in his best season (.350 OBP for the Mets). He can, despite the low BA, serve as a lead-off hitter and set the table for those who follow.
4. He's not made out of glass.
I don't necessarily agree that Fowler is a clear upgrade on a healthy Pagan. Those offensive numbers Fowler put in in ChiTown are unlikely to hold up in SF.
DeleteHouston traded for Carlos Gomez last year and with Marisnick has 2 fairly good CFers. Gomez is a Free Agent (Scot Boras) after this year which might induce the Astros to get rid of him BUT he is owed $9M for 2016 which would all (most likely) get taxed (for SF). Astros also used Rasmus in CF some (mostly LF) and resigned him (QO) for 1 year. So they have 4 OFers (with Springer in RF). Both Marisnick and Gomez were used down the stretch, but Gomez got more time in the playoff loss to KC.
ReplyDeleteDevelop Kelby for CF for 2017. It might take a year and so far (secondhand SSS) it hasn't worked. But what if it did? Leadoff, .300+ hitter, 70 speed, good glove. I say it's worth the time and trail to find out.
ReplyDeleteFlaGiant has been pushing for the Billy Hamilton trade for the past month. Hamilton has elite speed, a plus defender, and I would be all in if I know he would hit around .260 but he's a mess at the plate. Hamilton wants to give up being a switch hitter but the Reds wont let him. Has an uppercut to hit swing but generates no power and doesn't drive the ball.
ReplyDeleteIf he's hitting .230ish there is no way the Giants can start him every day or have him as their lead off hitter.
At the right price I would trade for him but 2-5 top prospects is IMO too much for a player who maybe our 4th outfielder.
Calvnhobs
If we can get Billy Hamilton it would be nice what do you think it would take to get him? im thinking Ray black, one of out top pitching prospects, and hmm maybe austin slater.
ReplyDeleteBilly Hamilton is either a boom or bust player, and I would be looking to trade the Reds a similar type of player. A Kyle Crick or Ray Black type of player.
ReplyDeleteCalvnhobs
When he figures out how to steal 1st, he'll be worth a look. If he could get to Seattle Nori might be able to help him.
DeleteI know this won't be a popular idea, but I keep coming back to taking a good look at Denard Span (I think he's doing a 'showcase' soon). Yeah, the hip injury is a real concern, but Pagan's injury history really makes me nervous. With the injury concern, Span could be willing to take a 1 or 2 year deal for a 'reasonable' price (relative term in the current market) to rebuild his value, and have a shot at winning a ring. Even if he ends up sharing time with Pagan and Blanco, its good to have an insurance option.
ReplyDeleteI'll admit that I have a fondness for Span as a player. When I was living in Minneapolis, I got to watch him a lot. He was a guy who kept hustling and playing all out even though it was on a 100 loss team (often it looked like he was the only guy on the team trying to win). He's also a very smart and positive, upbeat guy who did a lot in the community. I like those type of players, as opposed to an Upton type prima donna.
Yeah, it would be a bit of a gamble, but the upside could be well worth the risk.
I like healthy Span too. I just don't see the Giants paying to gamble on a guy coming back from hip surgery, which is no small deal, when they can gamble on Pagan for free, or at least no additional $$$.
DeleteI'm not sure why everyone gave up on Pagan. When he's healthy, he's good. My theory is Pagan forced his way into the lineup because he was overly aware people like Baggarly were taking shots referencing his poor reputation with the Mets. Pagan has something to prove this year, and the Giants have said they believe in players coming up big in contract years.
ReplyDeleteBlanco is the one we need to lock down for a couple more years, since we gave up on a lot of seemingly redundant offense only guys (like Perez).
After that, I think it's likely the Giants try to convert one of their infielders (Kelby, Arroyo, maybe even Fox?) since they're all blocked and unlikely to get traded. That combined with giving Parker, Williamson, the opening day slot, with Blank for the long shot, might very well be what they try to get away with. Then if it doesn't work, we can expect a mid season trade.
That said, it's been an unlikely off season, and Cespedes has been known to make team friendly contractual choices. Maybe he signs a short contract to rebuild his value and goes back to the FA market in 1 or 2 years when he would be the premiere option? Giants could overpay slightly on a backloaded deal.
I don't mean to sound like I'm 'giving up' on Pagan, but back/neck injuries make me nervous. They tend to become 'chronic' (I know mine has), and Pagan's have recurred enough times that it's hard to have confidence in his health.
DeleteIf Pagan has something to prove this year, and his touchiness has kept the team so far from moving him to a corner, how can the Giants acquire a replacement for him in CF before the season? Declaring to Pagan and the world how much they doubt Pagan as a center fielder doesn't seem like the Giants' MO. Hence the notion that they get a left fielder who can play CF was attractive, though with Heyward gone, the best FA option for that ploy has disappeared. I'm betting that they open the season with Pagan in place, and wait till he's injured or too visibly shies away when flies get near the wall before they act to replace him.
Delete