Sunday, December 20, 2015

Down on the Farm: Another Community Ranking

OK, we got great comments from our ranking of several pitching prospects.  Let's turn our attention to the OF where the talent is thinner but maybe no less interesting.  Rank these OF prospects with any comments/rationale you may offer:

Jarrett Parker
Hunter Cole
Johneshwy Fargas
Ronnie Jebavy
Steven Duggar
Mikey Edie


  1. Battle of the CF prospects? Just for kicks here's who played CF the most at each affiliate: Sac - Darren Ford (100); Rich - Engel Beltre (83); SJ - Seth Harrison (86); Aug - Johneshwy Fargas (95); SS Salem - Ronnie Jebavy (63); AR Rookie - Mikey Edie (37); DSL - Jose Patino (58)

    So you might give some weight to the fact those 3 guys (Fargas, Jebavy, Edie) are getting the reps in CF.

    Speed? Fargas is far and above the best SB threat in the system now. But Jebavy isn't a slouch, he wasn't in as many games. Fargas (59/78 SB/CS, got better as season progressed)/Jebavy (23/27 - excellent ratio). Jarrett Parker was 20/27, along with all the HRs, K's and BB's. This Patino kid (17 year old switch hitter) was 19/27 btw. Mikie Edie was 10/11 for SBs.

    I love Hunter Cole, I thought he was a great pick late (I thought they might draft him as early as 7th-8th rounds). He doesn't have a defensive position and he doesn't run, but he sure can hit. The fact he's zoomed has to rank him pretty high in present value.

    Never been high on Parker, he did impress in his debut but I kind of get a John Bowker vibe on this one. I just think there's too much K in his game.

    Jebavy is most likely my favorite sleeper in the entire system. If he can hit enough, his defensive profile, speed and power is an intriguing blend.

    Johneshwy and Edie are awesome prospects - will they fill in enough power or do they risk becoming Adrianza/Manny Burriss/Jesus Galindo types?

    I'd go two tiers on this: Jebavy/Edie/Cole and then Fargas/Parker/Duggar. Will the Giants put Jebavy in Augusta or skip him to SJ? That will say a lot about how they evaluate him because Fargas has to go to SJ. Edie will most likely get an aggressive Augusta assignment, but he might do rookie/short season. I think Edie has a better chance of filling in enough power than Fargas, but I think Jebavy has a better chance than either but he has to work on his OBP profile. Cole can just straight up hit, but he needs a defensive position. Most of these guys will fill into lists in the teens and twenties. I would aggressively rank Jebavy and that's most likely LF analysis.

  2. Parker

    1. I didn't have time earlier to expand on this, but will try to now.
      Parker (#14 on my personal list) I think that his stat line will be pretty similar no matter the level he plays. I expect a low 200s BA, decent walk totals, lots of Ks and runs into a dozen or more homers. I pretty much wrote him off last year, but his proximity and showing last year have him at the top of this half dozen of guys.
      Cole (#16) seems to have a pretty impressive hit tool and showed promise with success in AA.
      Fargas (#18) and his ability to steal a base is something that always draws me in. He sure gets hit by a lot of pitches and I hope he doesn't get hurt again.
      Duggar (#26) was one of my favorite draft picks this year. I think his approach at the plate (54:49 BB:K ratio at Clemson) and speed will make him a big leaguer and steal of the draft. He reminds me a lot of Kelby Tomlinson coming out of the draft.
      Edie (#35) is an interesting Venezuelan Giant prospects and I would like to see more before I move him up my list.
      Jebavy (#38) struck out a lot in his debut in Salem Keizer. He seems to be really athletic, but I am not sure if he will make enough contact to make a big impact.

      Clint in Anaheim Hills

  3. 1. Parker- his wRC+ as he's moved up (min 100 games):
    He's been about 20% better than league average consistently. The K rate is too high, but he's got power, speed, and the ability to fill in at CF. Seems like he could settle in as Nick Swisher type bat with more speed and better D.
    2.Cole- needs to find a position, but he can hit.
    3/4. Duggar/Jebavy- this is a toss up. Both have a ton of tools and lots of upside. Both performed well in college. Both had ok debuts, Jebavy may get the nod for the surprising power he showed.
    5. Edie- big potential. Might be better than everyone above, but I'll give the edge to the guys who have performed at a higher level.
    6. Fargas- I don't believe he has the power to keep pitchers honest no matter how great his name is.

    1. Edie is only eighteen. If he gets promoted to Augusta or Salem/Keiser , he would be one of the youngest players in either league.

    2. That's a fact. I gave some weight to the proximity. Lot of potential, but he's a long way off.

  4. #1 and nobody is close -- Parker. He's got weird stats, but there's no reason that they can't play in the majors. Even with his high SO rate he makes so much hard contact that he naturally produces a very high BABIP. So, like Belt, he's gonna strike out. And, like Belt, he's going to hit with quite a bit of power, generate a high BABIP, a good OBP (takes a lot of walks, too) and a reasonable average. Also, FWIW, of all MLB Qualifiers in Average Exit Velocity of hits, Parker finished tied for 37th and was the only Giant the list. Only Belt, of the Giants qualifiers, came close. Parker's also a good fielder (can play CF in a pinch) and has good speed on the base-paths having only caught 27% in the minors. One of the better SB/CS ratios in the farm system.

    Hunter Cole -- Great hitter, has made some tremendous strides at 2B. He's a few years away of having enough polish/proven ability at 2B for a possible call-up, but if he continues to grow, he could (in a year or two) either make Tomlinson tradeable or find himself traded.

    No Order -- Ronnie Jebavy (Short), Steven Duggar(Short), Johneshwy Fargas(A), Mikey Edie (ROK). A bunch of speed-first outfielders. They're all intriguing. But they're all so far away...

    1. Have to agree with MosesZD this is an odd grouping. Parker is by himself and should not be grouped with these other OF's. This is his make or break year. We will find out this year. Cole may be an OF or a 2B and he has a bat that out classes the bottom 4.

      The bottom 4 have potential and are so far away that you can't really project where they are going to end up.

    2. So in other words, you are a proximity guy as opposed to a ceiling guy.

    3. Parker is very tough to rank because he has both a relatively high ceiling and is in close proximity to the majors. The downside is he has one year to prove out. As you say, it is his make or break year. He either has a good season, grabs an OF spot by the throat and doesn't let go or he has a bad year and washes out completely. It probably isn't even a full year. If he is lucky enough to come out of Spring Training with a job, he probably has no more than 2-4 weeks to make his case or be gone.

  5. As I stated in the pitching discussion, I value proximity over potential, but I also think I made it a bit too simplistic. Let me try to make this a bit more dynamic...

    1) Parker - I like the Bowker comparison that Shank made. But the fact of the matter is, Parker has shown it on the big stage. I do not think he has superstar potential (which at least one of the others does have), but I think at this point, his FLOOR is #4 OFer.

    2 - Edie - this is the guy who I think has the POTENTIAL to be something special. The problem is that he is sooo young and he is sooo far away. His bust-factor is huge. But his breakout-factor is equally huge.

    3 - Cole - a bat on the move. I am not convinced he is not just a flash-in-the-pan. Is he Matt Duffy or Brock Bond?

    4 - Jebavy - I actually like him better than Cole, but Cole has an extra year and higher level.

    5 - Duggar/Fargas - both good, raw prospects. I see Fargas as a JCP-type, but without the power. Duggar is too early in his development to really register on my radar, outside of just watching him. I will bow to your opinions on him.

    1. Nobody said "Superstar." There's nothing close to 'superstar.' I'm basically saying "Brandon Belt in the OF." And while Bryce likened him to Swisher, and Swisher managed to have one AS season, he's no superstar.

  6. 1. Ronnie Jebavy - A combination of speed and power. Young enough at 21 to not be rushed up. Played at a high level in college.

    2. Mikey Edie - Speed and a very good defensive outfielder. /youngest of group , thus hardest to predict, but the kid has tools.

    3. Hunter Cole - A solid contact hitter. and teams find a place for hitters. His drawbacks are age (23) and lack of a position, probably end up in left field.

    4. Johneschwy Fargas - Blazing speed and solid defensive outfielder. Playing above his age at 20 in San Jose in 2016. Has a decent chance.

    5. Jarrett Parker - Has faced MLB pitching and makes hard contact. Reminds me of the power of Duvall and Sanchez in years past. Not sold that he will continue to hit. Agree that he is a lot like John Bowker, but a better defensive outfielder. Think his days are numbered.

    6. Steven Duggar - Contact hitter with no power. At 33 he has a couple of guys in front of him who are younger ( Jebavy, Edie and Fargas)with better potential.

  7. My top five outfield prospects with the most upside are Mickie Edie could be a five tool Guy here, Jared Parker who has shown us he can handle mob pitching and can play defense, Johneschwy Fargas who could be that contact hitting speedy center field leadoff guy that we will need very soon, Ronnie Jebavy a prospect with speed, power and some defense, Hunter Cole can hit and could be a solid corner guy. Lets also see if Gustavo Cabrera can have a healthy full season.

  8. Whoa, much tougher to rank this group in my opinion! I don't always have a tried and true formula for how I rank, but I do try to incorporate all of the major factors into my decisions when possible (age, ceiling, risk, proximity to majors, PERFORMANCE). Here's how I have them ordered in my personal rankings (all are in my top 35).

    1. Cole - He can hit.
    2. Parker - He looks to be a 4th OF/4-A guy at minimum.
    3. Edie - Nice name to dream on.
    4. Fargas - His tools + his season in Augusta were impressive for me.
    5. Jebavy/Duggar - Hard for me to separate these two at the moment. Duggar much more well known in school, but Jebavy might have the better pro career. I like both.

    Cove Chatter

  9. Unlike the 2nd tier pitchers, this group of OF is a microcosm of Giants bad luck/bad scouting combination that has plagued them since drafting Chili Davis in the 11th round in 1977. I have a list somewhere but if you look at all the outfielders the Giants have drafted in the early rounds, it's a tale of terrible picks and unfortunate misses. The thing is, they tried all kinds of strategies: polished college pure-hitter types (Ted Wood, Tony Torcato, Eddy-M-Esteve); college defense types (Calvin Murray, Clay Timpner); college toolsy guys (Dante Powell, Fred Lewis, Gary Brown); college high-floor low ceiling types (Steven Hosey, Todd Linden); high school toolsy guys (Adam Hyzdu, Wendell Fairley), etc. Until John Barr came, it's pretty safe to say the Giants are where high outfielder drafts picks go to die. Recently I think the tide has been changing a little, with Mac Williamson, Dylan Davis, Austin Slater. They might not turn out well, but they are generally seen as good picks.

    So with that long introduction, here are my not too optimistic rankings:

    1. Mikey Edie (18) - As many already stated, we almost have no idea how Edie will turn out. But if he goes to Augusta he will most likely be the youngest player in the league. With my pessimistic outlook on our outfielders, the only way I can see someone breaking out of our outfield curse is if someone has some unique separation. Mikey's is his youth. If he can just climb one level each year, he'll still be on course to make the majors by 22. Someone with that kind of trajectory is an enticing player. If he can be a plus defender in center, with a decent OBP, he will be a very valuable player. The optimistic projection is a player like Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, or Anthony Gose.

    2. Hunter Cole (23) - His advanced bat has allowed him to move quickly. As stated, needs to find a position so might best fit in AL where he can DH and play the corners as a 4th outfielder, occasional 2nd baseman. Might be able to carve out a Ryan Raburn kind of career.

    3. Steven Duggar (22) - Scouts and publications like his defense and tools. Seems to me like his ceiling is a 4th outfielder type like Chris Denorfia.

    4. Ronnie Jebavy (21) - Can't really tell Jebavy apart from Duggar but seems like following the box scores, Jebavy didn't seem to impact games all that much. Again, ceiling seems to be 4th outfielder.

    5. Jarrett Parker (27 during season) - To put things into context, Edie is 8 1/2 years younger than Parker. Pretty much I think Parker is gonna go the way of Bowkermania and disappear. But again, power is power and he has athleticism. He might stick somewhere as a Justin Maxwell type 5th outfielder. But he needs to start making more contact.

    6. Johneshwy Fargas (21) - I was slightly optimistic about Fargas after last season but this season I think he pretty much showed the extent of his ceiling, which is someone who might get one slight taste of the majors. But every team seems to have a handful of Fargases or Fargi and aside from speed, I don't see anything that points to Fargas being anything more than organizational filler.

    Overall, I think the rankings from the other posters reflect a swing of the pendulum too far from the industry obsession with youth. Sure, proximity is something and is sometimes underrated, but the reason youth is so appealing is because age relative to league is still one of the best indicators of future MLB success.

    1. Fargas has a tremendous arm and very good CF defense. I think he has pretty significant upside if he can hit at all. I was very impressed with him, performing the way he did in Augusta at such a young age. That park generally eats up young hitters, so props to him for hanging around all season (Jonah Arenado too for that matter).

      Cove Chatter

    2. Thanks for the insights, CC.

      If Fargas was young relative to his league, then why am I so down on him? I guess I should clarify my thinking on him. Maybe it's recency or confirmation bias on my part. But if I remember correctly, Fargas started out strong and then faded toward the end. He didn't have particularly a large number of bats so I'm not sure if the cause was fatigue. My suspicion was that the first half numbers were buoyed by a high babip and then regression hit. He ended up having a fair season overall but for hitters more so than pitchers, the age curve for peak still development is early. Your hit tool, especially, is pretty much established by your early 20s. That's why I was always optimistic about guys like Sandoval, Panik, Duffy, and now Arroyo. They were relatively young for their league AND they showed an advanced hit tool.

      I'm not too optimistic about Fargas's hit tool. So even if his arm and CF defense is stellar, is he gonna be better than JCP? He's most likely not gonna have as much power and he might not be as good of a hitter as JCP. I'm thinking more like Galindo, that's why I would say that eventually I see Fargas as organizational filler.

      Of course hitters can develop, but guys who become fundamentally better hitters after their early 20s are the rare exceptions. Pitching prospects can develop later, I'd say around 21-23 is the critical period and reliever prospects can even be in their mid 20s (that's why I believe the Giants having a bevy of mid 20s power arm relievers is an under-the-radar boon). As usual with all negative assessment of Giants prospects, hope to be proven wrong.