Christian Arroyo, SS. B-R, T-R. DOB: 5/30/1995. 5'11", 185 lbs.
High A: .304/.344/.459, 28 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 5 SB, 4.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, 409 PA.
AFL: .308/.360/.487, 3 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 1 SB, 4.7 BB%, 16.3 K%, 86 PA.
Arroyo is the Giants 2013 first round draft choice, #25 overall. He was widely considered an overdraft due to a tools deficit. But, the hit tool is widely considered the single most important of the big 5 and Arroyo can hit. Everybody who has scouted him and written about it says he can square up a ball with the best of them. He's got gap power with some pull HR power to boot. He does not walk much, but when you are BABIPing at a .350 clip, why would you want to take a walk? The K% is maybe a bit on the high side, but I believe anything below 20% is solid. As for the other 4 tools, they are all good but not great, with none being liabilities.
The other rap on him is most scouts don't think he is a SS although the Giants have shown that if the hit tool is working, it doesn't really matter where you play.
He will likely take on the big bad Eastern League next year at age 21. I would expect some struggles and possibly some people jumping off the bandwagon like we saw with Joe Panik. Just remember, the EL it one tough place to hit! I'll consider the season a success if he hits .260 or better. If he hits .300 again, then we really have something special here!
ETA to the majors is probably 2018 with a midseason or September callup in 2017 a possibility.
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All started with the fresh mindset in Spring Training to number 1!
ReplyDeleteDr. B, thank you for the post.
ReplyDeleteTwo questions...
1. I'm not familiar with typical ages at each level of the minors. As a 21 year old in the Eastern League, I suspect Arroyo will be under the average age. Do you have a sense of how many years under?
2. Any idea, given an expected 2018 ETA, what position Arroyo might play at the MLB level and will a change off of SS require additional time in the minors? LF seems the most obvious as of today. Is it a difficult transition from IF to OF?
(Okay, more than two questions!)
Arroyo won't turn 21 until May 30, but 2016 will be counted as his age 21 season. He should be one of the youngest players in the EL and all of AA. The average and median ages for the EL and AA is 24 yo, so he will be under that by a full 3 years. The two most likely positions for Arroyo in the majors are 2B and LF, but he could be a hit-first SS with adequate D or even a 3B. He's probably too short to play 1B.
DeleteBarring an injury to Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik or Matt Duffy, Christian Arroyo's best chance ( at this time) to become a starter with the Giants is in left field. He also could arrive in 2017 as a utility infielder , replacing Ehire Adrianza. His bat will find a place for him somewhere.
DeleteI've learned not to gaze too far into the crystal ball anymore, but if the Giants' young positional talent holds up over the next few years and they manage to keep Arroyo in the organization, I can envision a corner outfield combination of Arroyo and Mac in the post-Pence days. How sweet would that be?!
ReplyDeleteCove Chatter
I'm not the first to say this, but there's a potential dream out there that in a year or two where they bring up Arroyo to play 3B, and solve the CF long term by moving Duffy out there.
ReplyDeleteI think Arroyo will be worth that. The consideration of jostling another outstanding young player. (Though part of that comes from my belief Duffy is a rarity in terms of mentality, and work ethic. There's not much he can't do on the baseball field if he sets his mind to it.)
I think the power will come with Arroyo. Not 30+ HR, but 20 with a heap of doubles every year. He's got a frame that looks like it will fill out. So excited for this prospect.
Duffy is top 5 NL 3B in batting and top 5 in NL 3B for defense. Why on Earth would they move him? If Panik's back becomes an issue then he will have a spot at 2B. Duffy and Crawford aren't moving any time soon. You will always get the "Belt to LF" but Arroyo is a little short to play 1B. My best guess is that Arroyo will end up playing 2B for the Giants in a few years or be traded to another team possibly for a SP when Peavy or Cain leave.
DeleteRight now, the Giants just need to worry about Arroyo's progression and maybe him developing more pop. Having a logjam at an position isn't a bad thing.
ReplyDeleteI agree completely. These things tend to work themselves out in the end.
DeleteChristian Arroyo's year-to-year placement on Doc's Top 50:
ReplyDelete2014,15,16: 6th, 4th, 1st