The Cubs continued their rampaging quest to break their 106 year old absence from a World Series Championship by agreeing to sign Jason Heyward to an 8 year/$184 M contract or $23 M AAV. The agreement apparently calls for vesting opt outs at 3 years and 4 years. I'll take the over on the probability that he opts out so this may be, for all practical purposes, a 3 year deal. As things currently stand, Heyward projects to play CF for the Cubs with Jorge Soler in RF and Kyle Schwarber in LF. That could change with a trade or two.
I love this deal from the Cubs perspective. Heyward is the rare premium FA who has yet to enter what should be his prime years. If you only look at his slash line, you may not be that impressed and think the Cubs grossly overpaid. What makes Heyward great is how he does everything, not just well, but very well. Yes, he may be a bit short on dingers, but look at the XBH's, 30 2B and 15 3B per season. He runs well, 15 3B and 20 SB's per season. He grades out extremely well on defensive metrics. He can take a walk, averaging a 10% walk rate, while limiting his K's to 15% over the past 3 seasons. This all adds up to a 5 fWAR/season over the past 4 seasons with the lowest at 3.7 coming in a year when he got hit in the face with a pitch and missed quite a bit of time.
With the current market rate per WAR point pegged at around $8 M, Heyward should return a value of about $40 M/yr if he continues his average over the past 4 seasons. Taking the injury season out as an outlier, a typical Jason Heyward season should return closer to $48 M/yr in value. Now, here's the best part: There is at least a 50% chance that Heyward has yet to reach his peak season! 2016 will be his age 26 season which is right about the time most ballplayers enter their peak years. The Cubs got a great deal here with the only downside for them being the probability that they only get him at this price for 3 seasons. I have to say, the Cubs are looking like they mean business this year. They could well be what everybody thought the Dodgers were going to be by now. The only consolation for the Giants being that the Giants really don't have to worry about anything but a 5 or 7 game series against them.
Heyward certainly fits the description of the type of player the Giants say they are looking for. I don't know why the Giants dropped out of the running to sign him. Maybe he told them up front that he was not interested in playing in AT&T Park. He would not be the first position player FA to tell them that. Maybe the Giants are looking for more power from a big contract? I would point to the XBH's and say that AT&T is tailor-made for doubles and triples. Heck, Heyward might hit 25 triples playing half his game in AT&T! Maybe the Giants balked at the length of contract they were looking at? I can definitely buy into the notion that no pitcher should be given a contract longer than 5 years, and position players can get injured too, but IMO, a 10 year contract for Jason Heyward is less risky than a 6 year contract for David Price or Zack Greinke. Given his age, I would much rather give Heyward a 10 year deal than give Alex Gordon a 5 year deal, just to name another position player with a similar skill set. Most of these mega-contracts are foolhardy overpayments, but IMO, Jason Heyward is, and always was, the exception. 10/$250 would not have been an outlandish contract for him Maybe even 10/$300! He'll be worth every penny of this contract and much more. Again, the only downside for the Cubs is that darn opt out.
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Looks like Tony Sipp re-upped with Astros for 3 yr $18M. Good write up on Heyward.You and Shake both have interesting views on the signing.
ReplyDeleteLet's Go Giants!
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Tony Sipp is a guy I thought could really help the Giants. He's become a lot like what Jeremy Affeldt was. Even with the runaway inflation of reliever salaries, he signed for just $1 M more AAV than the Giants were paying Affeldt. I know they have Lopez and Osich, but if all 3 are good, there are worse outcomes than having 3 good lefties in the pen.
DeleteTo me, Heyward is about more than filling a current need. Yes he does that, but he's also one of the few players to hit FA who still has his best years in front of him. He's the baseball equivalent of a buy and hold long term investment.
Dr.B,
ReplyDeleteIt's always about the money with the Giants. They have at least a 3 to 5 year window where most of the pieces are in place, yet they won't the bold moves to complete the roster.
I hope I'm wrong but my guess is that the Giants will fill the outfield position on the cheap with Dexter Fowler or Kyle Blanks (remind anyone of Justin Maxwell); which begs the question, why did they get rid of Aoki?
Finally, on the subject of Bobby Evans, I would like to see way less smooth talk and much more action. Mr. Evans retains very little credibility with me.
That sounds like a very harsh criticism for a team that has won 3 championships in the last 6 seasons. Patience, my friend. The Hot Stove League has a long ways to go!
DeleteI agree, DrB. Other blog sites (won't name names) can be the place for everyone to complain that this front office is run by idiots, but I'm glad people here generally take a more measured approach. We don't run a baseball organization for a living nor do we have all the information the Giants front office is dealing with.
DeleteI don't necessarily agree with every move Giants management makes and commenters here don't have to either. What gets me upset is when people start making ridiculous accusations about them being cheap and unwilling to spend money and not caring about winning. I mean how can anyone say those things with a straight face when the Giants have one of the 5 highest payrolls in MLB and have won 3 of the last 6 championships?!
DeleteThe Giants just spent $90 M on Jeff Samardzija. Now, you can like or not like that move, but it was no cheap move. Personally, I admire the fact that they did not settle for the safe predictability of a Mike Leake, which is what I probably would have done and instead rolled the dice on the guy who gives them as much ceiling as anyone in the FA market.
I'll add. Just a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if opt-out clauses are dealbreakers for the Giants.
DeleteIt's hard to take this criticism with more than a grain of salt considering:
DeleteA. Have won three WS, which is 3 more than I ever expected in my life.
B. Were, in payroll: 10th in 2010, 8th in 2011, 8th in 2012, 6th in 2013, 7th in 2014 and 5th last year.
C. In those six years, no team first or second in Payroll in any of those years won the WS (Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies) when #1 or #2 in payroll. They didn't even always make the playoffs.
Most important though, is they've gotten a lot smarter about their payroll, FAs, etc. And while there may be a lesson or two that still needs to be learned, by-and-large they seem to have learned most of the important ones.
You know, Heyward would have been a good fit for the Giants. And, based on the opt-out provisions in the contract he got, would have been relatively low-risk, too. But, maybe you are right and Heyward made it clear early on SF wasn't a place he wanted to be. He reportedly rejected higher offers from the Nats and Cards, so I have to think there was something about the Cubs he liked (probably the chance to make history with a WS title).
ReplyDeleteWith Heyward off the board, but what about the Giants targeting Cueto? I know there is risk there, but I think he can be a real boon to the rotation if he's healthy. Plus, I think the Giants have enough OF options that they don't need to heavily invest in a Cespedes or Upton.
There are still several pitchers available who could upgrade the Giants rotation. Cueto is certainly one. I would add Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen into the top available tier. I also think Ian Kennedy is a better option than a lot of people are giving him credit for. There are several possible trade options out there, but the trade market still seems to be demanding MLB talent in return.
DeleteI have watched all the Shark interviews and the KNBR podcasts. This man is IMHO going to be a great team mate. His honesty is refreshing. This again barring Injury I believe is going to be a steal of a deal.
DeleteRichard in Winnipeg
Chen and Kennedy are Boras clients... That would be fun....
ReplyDelete