David Price has reportedly agreed to the largest contract ever given a pitcher in MLB. The Boston Red Sox were reported to be ready to outbid everybody else for Price and they did just that for 7 years/$217 M. The deal reunites Price and new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, who once traded for Price as GM of the Detroit Tigers. The deal also keeps Price in the AL which is what it felt like was going to happen all along I don't think there is any real point in discussing contract value. Contract value is only pertinent if the contract somehow prevents the team from signing a player they want in the future. This contract comes on the heels of two busted contracts from last offseason, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Those certainly did not slow down the Red Sox pursuit of David Price and Price's contract is unlikely to prevent the addition of other players in the future. Price gives Boston what they did not have last year, an ace pitcher. Of course, adding an ace pitcher, even if he lives up to expectations, is no guarantee of team success. Just ask the Washington Nationals!
The deal also leaves Zack Greinke as the lone top tier pitcher left on the market. The bidding seems to be down to the Giants and Dodgers with both teams demanding a decision. Expect an announcement this week, maybe as early as tomorrow. My feeling is the Dodgers have the advantage here. I have always believed that to land either Greinke or Price, for different reasons the Giants would have to come in with blow-away offer at least $20-30 M above the rest of the market. With Price, it would be to get him out of his comfort zone in the AL. For Greinke, it would be to get him away from the Dodgers. The problem is, I am not sure it is even possible to outbid the Dodgers like that! For that reason, I am going at least 70/30 that Greinke ends up back with the Dodgers. Of course it is possible that the Giants don't really want to spend what it would take to land Greinke and just want to drive up his price as high as possible for their downstate rivals, but if that is the case, it is setting up yet another scenario where they come in second in the bidding for a top free agent. At some point, they have to land somebody or suffer a major credibility loss.
Speaking of Zack Greinke, a strange story has emerged about Zack in the Dodgers clubhouse. The story is recorded in a book released this past summer about the Dodgers entitled The Best Team Money Can Buy. It seems that Don Mattingly called a team meeting during a losing streak in 2013. Now Greinke is, by all accounts, a guy who marches to a different drummer. He apparently has very little to say to his teammates, ever. So, when he asked for the floor in the team meeting, everybody wanted to know what he had to say. As everybody leaned in, Greinke spoke: "Some of you guys are doing the number 2 and not washing your hands. It's not good! I noticed it happening earlier today. So, if you guys could just be better about it, that would be great." WTF? The other players reportedly had no idea whether he was serious or not. They finally concluded that he was, which made it twice as funny!
Ironically, it loosened up the clubhouse and the Dodgers clinched the NL West 2 games later.
Here's the question: Does this story make you more or less eager for the Giants to sign Greinke, or does it not affect your opinion?
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I'll just add that Price coming off the market should increase the Giants willingness to go for broke on Greinke and drive a stake through the heart of the Monster as the Dodgers would be left with no comparable fallback option.
ReplyDeleteThat is sure a great feeling to rip the heart out of the Dodgers like that. While I'd be ecstatic if the Giants land Greinke, in my opinion, I would prefer to re-sign Leake, and sign another second- or third-tier pitcher. That money saved could be allocated to upgrade other areas of need.
DeleteHere's my beef with the "upgrading other areas" theory.... the Giants NEED starting pitching. Period. They have one of the better offenses in the league, a good bullpen, and tremendous team defense. Getting another ace to pair with Bumgarner has been the top priority all along. Leake isn't close to that, and he never will be.
DeleteCove Chatter
I am less concerned with getting a second ace than I am with making sure 3/5'ths of the rotation is not Peavy, Cain and Heston. If the Giants can add an ace and still add another 3-5 starter, that would be great of course, but I do think they need to add two starters. Adding a lefty in the bullpen like Tony Sipp would be nice, but a luxury. The also need a CF quite badly, but I'm not sure where they are going to find one.
DeleteOf course, the added benefit of signing Greinke is they are taking him away from the Dodgers. That's a swing of what, 10 WAR points? That is huge!
Amazing, you could get 2 Zimmermanns for the Price of 1.
ReplyDeleteThe Price is right for Greinke.
And neither is good for the Giants.
Sounds like Zach was channeing his inner Bill Lee....I think he would fit in with the MiSFits by the Bay.
ReplyDeleteI would say 60-40 ZG returns to Doyer Azul. Would love to see tge Graybeards swoop in though.
Let's Go Giants!
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Actually, there is a 3rd ACE still out there -- Cueto. And the Red Sox contacted him two days ago (before Price accepted). And while people forget about him, his ERA+ for the last five years has been (Grieke in parentheses):
ReplyDelete2011 - 171 (103)
2012 - 148 (115)
2013 - 135 (135)
2014 - 163 (129)
2015 - 117 (225) [note, Cueto was 151 in Cincinnati. What happened in KC, I don't know, but it really shot-down his ERA+ for the year]
And while Greinke has had two monster seasons (200+ ERA+) in his career, mostly his ERA+ hovers around 100 to 135 and over the past 5 years Cueto, save 2015, has out-performed Greinke if ERA+ is reasonably informative as a stat. And there are other stats that tend to push me either a bit more towards Cueto or are pretty much a toss up.
In the end though, the biggest reason I'm for Cueto is age + wear-and-tear. He's 3-years younger and has 600 innings fewer pitched.
Well, there is Cueto's last 2 months in KC and something funky with his arm. If you believe Cueto is fully healthy, I agree, but I have my doubts and I bet a lot of baseball execs do too.
DeleteI tend to discount that (legitimate) concern for two reasons. First, the Reds did rest him for two week and checked him out in Cincinnati because of a sore elbow. But his MRI came back clean and he left Cincinnati with a 2.62 ERA. So if there was an injury then, it wasn't effecting him. At least not in Cincinatti.
DeleteSecond, in KC, his season there was a tale of three stretches instead of general suckitude. His first month his ERA was 3.86, including two games where he got hammered at the end of the month. His second month, his ERA was 6.11 because he had three more games where he got hammered at the beginning of the month. In this 5-game stretch none of his pitches were working. His wipe-out slider was flat. His fastball was fat and easy to hit. No two ways about it, he just sucked and during that time he gave 28 earned runs in just 26.1 innings (9.56 ERA).
But he corrected that by mid-September and he finished the season with a respectable 25 innings with 9 ER in his last 4 starts (3.23 ERA). Three of which were 'quality starts' and the one that wasn't was because they pulled him in the 5th inning to rest him despite only 1 earned run and just some scattered hits. Then, in the playoffs, he got hammered in one of his playoff games (8 earned runs in 2 innings to Toronto in the ACLS). But overall he still held his opponents to a .188 BA and 1.08 WHIP while giving up just 7 earned runs in the other 23 (2.73 ERA in the non-hammered games) innings.
I really think it was probably mechanics or a transitory injury that effected him. Even when he was 'bad' in the regular season for KC, it was a 5-game streak. His next 9 games (including the playoffs), he had one bad game against Toronto. Additionally, five of them were quality starts with the 6th only failing because he was yanked for rest after tuning up despite only giving up one 1 run on 6 scattered hits.
It really looks, to me at least, that it was just something that went on for about a month and either healed or was corrected. Kind of like how Kershaw 'sucked' for the first two months of 2015 posting a 3.73 ERA in April and a 3.97 in May. Or when Bumgarner had his 4.85 ERA in July.
And I'm not even going into the BABIP 'bad luck' aspect of it. Some people have mentioned that he had some horrible, horrible BABIP (way outside his career norms) bad luck (.343 for KC vs .276 career at Cincinnati). But I haven't really gotten into that argument because I think if a pitcher is pitching badly, a high BABIP is more than 'mere bad luck.'
Rather, I just looked at his game logs and noted he had a 5-game stretch where he pitched like a scrub for the Royals that was sandwiched in between two solid stretches with only one truly bad game against Toronto.
His makes his mechanics too funky and he tends to get out of rhythm of his delivery, flying open and getting late often. I don't really know what effect that those funky jittering and the quick pitching will do. In my opinion, pitching is simplifying things to improve repeatition and he's not doing it and the results are not really excouraging. A hitter can still time his mechanics because his arm path is still smooth and can be timed if the batter doesn't have a big leg kick or with just pure talent. Injury concerns me as well. And he's 30. I'd rather have a guy who does well with weak contact than an inconsistent SP with hidden injury flags.
DeleteI think Starship Greinke aborts its flight and stays in LaLa Land, which I suspect was the plan all along. I'd rather see the Giants spread the funds out for Leake, Kazmir, and OF and bullpen help. While not a clubhouse cancer, Greinke has never been a great teammate either- maybe more of a space occupying lesion- relatively benign at first, but with the potential for causing harm if things tske a turn for the worse.
ReplyDeleteAgree. Geinke is all about the money, and when the pushing gets to shoving the Giants just don't have the weight the Bums have.
DeleteFor now, anyway. As Shankbone has suggested, that LA TV contract might just blow up.
Be nice to see the Giants push the Dodgers up above $200 mil on Greinke.
$32aav is a lot for anyone. I'd want to to damn sure he's going to perform for more than half the contract. I don't know that you could expect that from Greinke. He doesn't take over games like Kershaw. He doesn't put the team on his back like MadBum.
ReplyDeleteCueto has injury concerns. Missed a start for elbow tenderness then failed to pitch well down the stretch. I know pitchers come with injury concerns, but that makes me nervous
Truth is, this is the market. Anyone who posts a sub 3 era consistently is a $25 mil AAV guy. If I was going to bet on one, it would have been Price. Above all else, please don't sign Leake and call it a day.
Buster Olney tweets:
ReplyDelete"CLE/SF talked about possible Carlos Carrasco deal, with CLE asking about Brandon Belt and Joe Panik. Those discussions then faded."
If it is Panik and a low prospect I would make that trade. But, not if Arroyo, Beede, etc are included with Panik. Worst case we have a decent young arm and Tomlinson to cover 2B. Panik's back worries me. Every back injury I have ever heard of seems to linger throughout their career. His highest value might be now. We have no options to replace Belt and Posey is not changing positions.
What if it makes Buster upset that Panik can't stand in for him at promotional appearances anymore? Think of the clubhouse repercussions!
DeleteNot me. He's injury prone. Has never pitched 200 innings. He missed 2012 with, I believe, a TJ injury and I'm not a big fan of TJ starters. Bullpen I can live with, but starters... Nope. I need my 200 consistent innings.
DeleteOTOH, Panik was, until the back-flare up, well on pace to be the best (WAR) 2B in MLB. And while Tomlinson is a good back-up, and I really like him and think he could start for many clubs, I don't think he's as good as Panik who finished 4th in WAR despite having 200 few ABs than any of three ahead of him. That's just not to be sneezed at!
On an Indians website the sentiment seemed to be, today, that the proposed trade was Carrasco for both Panik and Belt, and that "Cookie" was worth way more than merely that.
DeleteRoger, I think you're spot on with your post. There's not anyone who doesn't want JP on 2B, but the likelihood of him coming back and playing a full season, ever, without back issues is not good if history is any indicator. Dr.B could speak more to that, but I agree that if you're going to get anything in a trade that includes him, now may be the time. But here's to hoping he comes back fully healed and better than ever!
DeleteI don't think the Giants want to trade any 2 position players unless one is named Pagan. I could handle Panik and a few low prospects for a SP with control but Belt would be hard to replace. Belt is not a one-dimensional player like some first basemen. He does a lot of things very well like defense, OBP and solid gap and HR power. I see Belt and the Giants working out a long term deal a little under Crawford money.
DeleteI hope the Giants FO put on their big boy pants because there is not much in the way of Free Agency for SP next year. The philosophy of getting a stop gap until next year won't work this time. This is probably the best year for SP possibly ever. If Plan B of not signing Greinke is signing both Cueto and Leake then I would be fine with that. But, if Plan B is Leake and Fister then I am afraid the Giant's players will be watching the playoffs from their TVs for a few years. Hindsight being 20/20 I think Zimmermann and Leake would have made a great combo.
ReplyDeleteOh man, that is so what I'd love have happen. Cueto is a great pitcher. A true ACE even with his 5-game hiccup in the middle of his Royal's tenure. And Leake is a very solid 3/4 guy and should excel in a place like ATT.
DeleteThe short term swing of subtracting from the Bums and adding to the Gints is too great not to go all out for ZG. I'd put it at 70-30 he returns to the Blue, and I think that the issue here is he's waiting for one side to blink and give up that 6th or (gasp) 7th year. As much as I'd love ZG, I don't think the G's should go for either. If they want to win the bid though...
ReplyDeleteIs Arroyo for Miller out of trhe question to either side? Or to BOTH?
ReplyDeleteBeing that Atlanta asked for Joc Pederson and more prospects from the Dodgers for Miller I would say Arroyo isn't going to do it alone.
DeleteMariners reach agreement with free-agent outfielder Nori Aoki
ReplyDelete"The deal was first reported on twitter by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Terms of the deal were not immediately known, but it is believed to be a one-year agreement that includes at least one club option...The Mariners landed Aoki just hours after closing in on a trade to send first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo and another player to Baltimore for catcher/first baseman Steve Clevenger."
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article47503740.html
Guess we'll have to look elsewhere for OF help (I like Shank's Pagan-Blanco-JP course of action).
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Petit was offered in a trade today (Ken Rosenthal -- Fox). Don't know to whom.
ReplyDeleteHector Sanchez and Yusmeiro Petit have been non-Tendered and will be free agents. SFGiants roster now at 38.
ReplyDeleteAre you safe Dr B? I am pretty sure you live in the Inland Empire somewhere and hope you and your family is ok
ReplyDeleteClint in Anaheim Hills, formerly Redlands
Thank you for asking. I and my family are all safe. The apartment they searched is about 2 blocks from my house. My wife knows and works with many people who work out of Inland Regional Center. At this time, we do not know if any of those colleagues were killed or wounded.
DeleteI will just take this opportunity to say, I do not believe there is any one single solution to the epidemic of mass shootings we are experiencing in our country. It will likely take changes to gun laws, law enforcement, mental healthcare and related privacy laws as well as looking at various forms of entertainment. I do know that we have to make whatever it takes a priority. We cannot continue to just stand around grieving and wringing our hands.
This is not a political blog and I do not intend to turn it into one. I will not make any further comments on this situation or related political issues. I will publish thoughtful reactions to this comment.
Stay safe, everybody.
DrB, I am glad that you and your family is safe as well. Thoughts and prayers to the victims and their loved ones.
DeleteVigilance must be the watch word going forward. Take care.
NWGiantsFan
His comment makes me more interested in having Greinke on the Giants.
ReplyDeleteThis story makes me want him on the Giants in a big way, and I have to imagine with Puig still on the team Greinke might take that into consideration when deciding between the two offers. If we are right there money wise with the Bums, I actually think Greinke might prefer a more mature, professional clubhouse, and a team that knows how to close out business once they reach the playoffs:
ReplyDelete**In 2014, during the Dodgers' annual trip to Chicago, the team bus stopped downtown to allow rookies undergoing hazing to walk into a pizza place and emerge with food for the veterans. Some Dodgers players, not wanting to wait, skipped off the bus. When the bus was ready to leave, Puig was outside, looking for his luggage inside of the bay underneath the bus. After Puig ignored multiple requests to close the luggage bay, Greinke hopped off the bus, grabbed the suitcase in front of Puig and chucked it onto Michigan Avenue. Puig stepped toward Greinke and was restrained by reliever J.P. Howell.**
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2511284-yasiel-puig-reportedly-has-had-multiple-altercations-with-dodgers-teammates