Sunday, June 14, 2015

Scouting the 2015 Draft: Giants Draft Review

I wrote up extensive reviews of the Giants first 3 picks through round 2 of the 2015 draft in a previous post.  You can look it up in the archives to the left.  I think it's entitled Day 1 Recap or something like that.  Just a quick review here.  First Round selection, RHP Phil Bickford, has as high a ceiling as any player in this year's draft.  I did not seriously consider him as a Giants pick at #18, and pretty much nobody else did either, mainly because of his circuitous route to this year's draft, which just didn't seem like the type of bio the Giants look for.  The Giants say they did their homework on his makeup and think he will be fine.  Chris Shaw seemed like more of a one-dimensional player than the Giants like in the first couple of rounds, but he does have a serious hit tool to go with the incredible power potential.  Suarez seems like he has a limited ceiling and has a serious injury history, so I was a bit disappointed in the round 2 pick.  We'll pick it up with Round 3 here:

3.  Jalen Miller, SS, HS(GA).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 185 lbs.  I'm not sure why Miller fell this far after being ranked in the top 30 on many pre-draft boards.  He is a wiry strong SS with excellent size for a MI.  Several scouting reports I read say he's almost a sure bet to stay at SS.  Jonathan Mayo at mlb.com thinks he might not quite have the arm.  Other's say his arm, like the rest of him, is projectable.  Here are some quotes from his PG page:  "Very good at PG National."  "Good defensive SS and can hit!"  "Slender, very projectable athletic build, very young looking physically."  "Young athlete who is just going to keep getting better as he gets stronger physically."  Several commentators comp him to Brandon Phillips.  Got to think the Giants think they can sign him if they took him this high.  They do that, and this is a home run of a draft pick and raises the draft grade by at least 1 full letter in my book!

*********************************************************************************

4.  Mac Marshall, LHP, JC.  6'2", 185 lbs.  Chipola JC 2015 stats:  2.37 ERA, 30.1 IP, 13 BB, 44 K.  You may remember Mac Marshall as a second tier pitching prospect from last year's draft.  He fell in the draft due to signability concerns as he had a commitment to LSU.  Then the Astros took him late an made a run with money they thought they could save on Brady Aiken's bonus.  That all blew up and Marshall was headed to LSU.  During the offseason, he bailed on his LSU commitment and went to JC  to keep his options open for the 2015 draft.  Here is what PG had to say before last year's draft:  "Fast arm, up to 94.  Very athletic, potential plus breaking ball."  PG reports his 60 yard dash time at 6.60 secs which is darn fast!  This one might not be quite the HR that the Miller pick was, but it's close.  We'll give it a triple.  I actually would have been happier with Marshall in Round 2 than Suarez, but hey, I guess it doesn't matter which one went in round 2 or round 4 if you get both of 'em!

*********************************************************************************

5.  Ronnie Jabavy, OF, Middle Tennessee St U.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.  .359/.408/.531, 7 HR, 24 SB, 19 BB, 34 K, 245 AB.  Jabavy was a JC transfer to start the season.  He is extremely athletic and was a human highlight reel in CF, actually making Sports Center a couple of times!  He looks like he has a bit of a windup in his swing that will need to be smoothed out, but I love his ceiling.

*********************************************************************************

6.  Steven Dugger, OF, Clemson.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 195 lbs.  .304/.432/.432, 5 HR, 10 SB, 54 BB, 49 K, 227 AB.  Potential 5 tool player with a 60 time of 6.64 and a throw clocked at 90 MPH.  The questions are with the hit tool and whether he can develop any usable power.  Right now, he's a 3 true outcomes guy without the HR outcome!  The swing is ugly with all sorts of pre-swing motion and an exaggerated leg kick.  Gotta love the athleticism though!

*********************************************************************************

7.  Jose Vizcaino, Jr, SS, Santa Clara U.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 220 lbs.  .335/.406/.588, 9 HR, 10 SB, 23 BB, 39 K, 194 AB.  Has great size to go with his athleticism.  Nice bloodlines too with pop Jose Vizcaino, a former MLB SS who had his highest fWAR season with the Giants in 1997 a year they made the postseason(one of the Marlins' years).  He'll probably move to 3B as a pro due to his size, but despite his 220 lbs of listed weight, he appears to have a bit of room to fill out.  Sadly, Jose Vizcaino Sr is employed in the Dodgers from office and Jose Jr. grew up a "die hard" Dodgers fan.  Gonna need to do some soul searching about allegiances in THAT family!  One more thing:  Jose Jr. was my pick for a mid-late single digit round pick in the draft.  Nailed it!

*********************************************************************************

8.  Cory Taylor, RHP, Dallas Baptist U.  6'2", 252 lbs.  7-1, 3.60, 80 IP, 31 BB, 71 K.  Jumbo sized RHP with a reported FB velocity of 94 MPH and a plus slider.  Strong physical resemblance to Joba Chamberlain.  Looks like he might be a reliever to me.

*********************************************************************************

9.  David Graybill, RHP, Arizona St.  6'5", 244 lbs.  0-0, 4.32, 8.1 IP, 9 BB, 9 K's.  2 way player who mostly played a position before this year.  3'rd generation Sun Devil athlete.  Might be a project like Joe Biagini.  With the success they've had developing Big Joe, I am sure Giants scouts are on the lookout for similar profiles.

*********************************************************************************

10.  Tyler Cyr, RHP, Embry-Riddle U.  6'3", 195 lbs.  7-5, 3.14, 86 IP, 50 BB, 98 K's.  Embry-Riddle is an NAIA school.  Perennial champion of its conference.  Don't have a scouting report.  Stat line looks like a hard thrower with iffy command.

*********************************************************************************

11.  CJ Hinojosa, SS, Texas.  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 179 lbs.  .242/.321/.403, 7 HR, 4 SB, 23 BB, 25 K, 211 AB.  Hinojosa has been on prospect radar screens since HS.  His college career never took off.  In 2015, his HR numbers jumped up a bit, but his BA cratered.  Giants love to jump on formerly highly ranked prospects whose stock drops in college.  If you look at his swing on video, there is no obvious reason why Hinojosa doesn't hit more.  He has a quick, smooth path to the ball with some power in it and a slight uppercut.  He does not have a lot of extraneous movements at the plate.  The athleticism is still there with a quick first step and some capability of acrobatics that remind you of Brandon Crawford.  He may not have Crawford's arm strength, though.  the K and BB numbers look Giantsy.  A project that could have a big payoff.  There is a note on the Texas Longhorns website that says Hinojosa plans to leave school to turn pro.

*********************************************************************************

12.  Hector Santiago, SS, PR HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 180 lbs.  Unfortunately, a Google search of Santiago's name is confounded by the LHP for the LA Angels.  I could not find an scouting report to save my life, but I'm pretty sure the height and weight are for the drafted dude.  The Giants usually get their Puerto Rican draftees signed.  I''m liking this pick on size alone.

*********************************************************************************

13.  Matt Pope, RHP, JC.  6'7", 215 lbs.  1-1, 6.06, 16.1 IP, 7 BB, 15 K's.  This guy has the size and body of a first round pick.  PG lists his FB velocity from 2012 as 91 MPH.  I found a video of him in which I swear I heard a voice say "100" on a couple of pitches.  Very intriguing prospect!  I will be watching intently to see if the Giants can get him signed and start developing him.

*********************************************************************************

14.  Matt Winn, Catcher, VMI.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 220 lbs.  RS Sr.  .304/.391/.586, 14 HR, 28 BB, 49 K, 191 AB.  Power hitting catcher.  His bio page says he threw out 21 of 40 baserunners in 2014!

*********************************************************************************

15.  Cody Brickhouse, Catcher, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 210 lbs.  I wasn't able to find much information on him.  Giants are usually pretty serious about signing HS talent in this part of the draft.

*********************************************************************************

16.  Grant Watson, LHP, UCLA.  6'0". 181 lbs.  8-5, 2.30, 97.2 IP, 21 BB, 66 K's.  Watson has been the third pitcher in the UCLA rotation and kind of their secret weapon for 4 years now.  He is what he is, a pitchability guy.  I would call him a "stylish left-hander" because his windup and delivery are almost picture perfect.  I think he could be a real sleeper in the system.  Maybe a healthy version of Paul Oseguera who I really liked a lot once upon a time.  Clayton Tanner would be another comp.

*********************************************************************************

17.  Cameron Avila-Leeper, LHP, JC.  5'11", 160 lbs.  14-2, 1.89, 114.1 IP, 40 BB, 130 K's.  A Sacramento HS product who grew up a Giants fan and played JC ball at San Joaquin Delta College.  PG reports an 87 MPH FB in 2013.  Has a 4 pitch mix with command.  Funny story out there about how his mom refused to give up her seat at a game to a Giants scout!  I would comp him to Matt Lujan, but much younger if they can sign him.

*********************************************************************************

18.  Heath Slatton, RHP, Middle Tennessee St.  6'3", 185 lbs.  2-8, 7.99, 47.1 IP, 26 BB, 34 K's.  No scouting report.  MTSU bullpen pitcher.  I would think he might strongly consider staying in school for another year.

*********************************************************************************

19.  David Owen, RHP, Arkansas St.  6'0", 190 lbs.  3-5, 3.25, 91.1 IP, 44 BB, 73 K's.  No scouting report.  Non-descript numbers.

*********************************************************************************

20.  Travis Eckert, RHP, Oregon St.  6'2", 192 lbs.  6-2, 4.08, 90.1 IP, 30 BB, 50 K's.  See #19 above.

*********************************************************************************

21.  Ryan Halstead, RHP, Indiana.  6'5", 219 lbs.  RS Sr.  2-2, 2.59, 41.2 IP, 6 BB, 55 K's, 10 Saves.  Now we're talking!  Big, tall college closer with strikeout stuff and a very low walk rate?  Yes, I'll take that!

*********************************************************************************
22.  Dominic Mazza, LHP, UCSB.  6'1", 185 lbs.  6-1, 2.69, 77 IP, 26 BB, 72 K's.  Gauchos pitching staff was loaded this season.  Nice numbers, but no scouting report on this guy.

*********************************************************************************

23.  Dillon Dobson, 2B, Appalachian St.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 220 lbs.  .317/.357/.577, 12 HR, 4 SB, 11 BB, 32 K's, 208 AB.  Dobson says he always dreamed of playing college baseball.  Never seriously thought about a pro career until now.  I could see this guy going back for his senior year.

*********************************************************************************

24.  Zack Bowers, Catcher, Georgia.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 206 lbs.  .252/.421/.503, 8 HR, 37 BB, 55 K, 155 AB.  No scouting report.  College catcher with some pop and a ton of K's.

*********************************************************************************

25.  Michael Silva, RHP, Loyola Marymount.  6'1", 210 lbs.  3-2, 2.77, 39 IP, 29 BB, 40 K's.  No scouting report.  Saw a HS video and I'd say he's filled out his frame just a bit since then.

*********************************************************************************

26.  Tyler Brown, SS, JC.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.  .323/.418/.456, 3 HR, 17 SB, 23 BB, 18 K's.  Phil Bickford's teammate.  I like the K and BB numbers.

*********************************************************************************

27.  Bryan Case, Catcher, Oklahoma St.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 200 lbs.  .254/.336/.441, 4 HR, 14 BB, 21 K, 118 AB.  Big for a catcher.  No scouting report at all.

*********************************************************************************

28.  Ashford Fulmer, OF, Houston.  6'1", 190 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  .238/.311/.345, 3 HR, 10 SB, 13 BB, 37 K's, 168 AB.  Less than impressive numbers.  Always gotta think there might be something scouts see in guys like this, or it might just ba a very weak draft.

*********************************************************************************

29.  Matthias Dietz, RHP, JC(Ill).  6'5", 231 lbs.   4-4, 3.13, 54.2 IP, 11 BB, 50 K.  PG says his FB went 89 MPH in 2014.  Big, burly RHP who looks like he might have some projection.  No word on if he is kin to Dick Dietz!

*********************************************************************************

30.  Tucker Forbes, RHP, UCLA.  6'8", 235 lbs.  RS So.  1-0, 2.11, 38.1 IP, 9 BB's, 45 K's.  Big, tall RHP with a classic pitcher's frame.  Would still have some leverage next year if he stayed in school.

*********************************************************************************

31.  Ryan Howard, SS, Missouri.  6'1", 192 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  .308/.369/.433, 5 HR, 6 SB, 18 BB, 24 K, 224 AB.  High contact MI that the Giants seem to love these days, and for good reason!

*********************************************************************************

32.  Jeff Burke, RHP, Boston College.  6'5", 220 lbs.  2-3, 4.85, 39 IP, 17 BB, 30 K's.  No scouting report.  I like big pitchers, though, and the Giants do too!

*********************************************************************************

33.  Rafael Ramirez, RHP, HS.  6'4", 220 lbs.  OK, we're into silly time in the draft.  Hard to find any info on him due to multiple Rafael Ramirez's, but one look at his size and draft position and you figure he's probably not going to sign.  Giants occasionally fool us with these, though.  After all, you can offer a 33'rd round pick the same amount of $$$ as an 11'th round pick.

*********************************************************************************

34.  Travis Moniot, SS, HS(Palm Desert).  B-S, T-R.  6'0", 165 lbs.  Oregon commit.  He's not signing.  Draft could obviously be shortened to 30 rounds and nobody would notice.

*********************************************************************************

35.  Drew Jackson, RHP, Florida Atlantic.  Sr. 6'3", 180 lbs.  6-3, 2.10, 68.2 IP, 15 BB, 52 K's.  No scouting report.  Like the size.

*********************************************************************************

36.  Brandon Little, LHP, HS(PA).  6'2", 195 lbs.  Scouting report has his FB at 94 MPH.  He's not coming here.

*********************************************************************************

37.  Mark Weist, 3B, Michigan St.  RS Sr.  6'3", 215 lbs.  .346/.407.526, 19 2B, 6 HR, 11 SB, 17 BB, 25 K, 228 AB.  Really like the size and numbers here.   Could be a sleeper.

*********************************************************************************

38.  Nathaniel Pecota, OF, HS.  5'9", 170 lbs.  Bill Pecota's son?  Lots of Google noise with PECOTA and Nate Silver.  I'll take a wild guess and say he's going to college.

*********************************************************************************

39.  Hunter Bowling, LHP, HS.  6'8", 220 lbs.  Florida commit.  FB runs 94 MPH.  He's not signing!

*********************************************************************************

40.  Roger Edwards, OF, Gulf Coast CC.  Does this guy even exist?  I got the same search results as Grant Bisbee when I Googled him-zilch, nada.  Not one thing came up that even remotely seemed to lead to a ballplayer by this name.  I found a site for a Gulf Coast CC in Mississippi, but there was no link to any athletic departments.  Anybody out there got anything on him?

All in all, I think the Giants had an excellent draft.  I would take Bickford over any position players in the draft.  He might have been the top college pitcher in the draft.  I can only think of 1 or 2 HS pitchers I might take over him and one of them, Justin Hooper is clearly not going to sign a pro contract yet.  Chris Ward is growing on me.  I could easily see him becoming a terror at the plate although he will be anchored to first base.  Not too excited about Suarez, but then the Giants killed it with their #3 and 4 picks.   Those two picks are, to me, what makes this a great draft.  I'm really intrigued by the college hitters at #5-7.  After that, it becomes kind of a grab bag with some upside talent, roster filler and a few players who are extremely unlikely to sign.

Draft grades are pretty much determined by the top 5 rounds.  I'll give John Barr, Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean an A- for this one with Suarez at #2 being the one guy I'm not wild about.  Hopefully he proves me wrong.

10 comments:

  1. Thanks for the recap.. Although not signed yet, where would you rate Bickford in terms of the current Giants top ten prospect list? I like the Giants drafting 2 Lefthanded starting pitchers early, so we'll see.. The draft is such a crapshoot, but it looks like they made some interesting picks up to round 11. Would be nice if Hinojosa can turn into another Brandon Crawford.! Would you rate the 2 lefties Suarez and Marshall as better/higher ceiling pitching prospects then Ty Blach?

    LG

    LG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bickford would be a fairly easy choice for #2 Giants overall prospect after Tyler Beede. I would rate the two lefties ahead of Blach based on ceiling.

      Delete
  2. Really great recap, DrB! I find it strange that the teams aren't really looking deep into Puerto Rico. Is there some kind of problem regarding drafting players out of Puerto Rico? Seems like there's some toolsy guys there with Carlos Correa leading the way.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Giants have been fairly active in drafting Puerto Rican players. So far, none have panned out as well has we would hope. Johneshwy Fargaa is currently their top Puerto Rican prospect and he looks like a good one. Baseball is finally making a comeback in Puerto Rico as MLB and individual players such as Carlos Beltran have put money into some baseball academies down there. It's a bit unclear why baseball so completely died out down there. Some say including PR in the draft sucked all the money out of the baseball business down there and it all collapsed. That is one of the worries about bringing the DR and other latin american countries into the draft. It could kill off baseball in those countries or a decade or more. If they do institute an international draft, MBL better be ready to step in with some serious grassroots baseball initiatives to keep that from happening.

      Delete
  3. Roger Edwards goes by Woody Edwards. Here is a link to the Gulf Coast stats.

    http://stats.njcaa.org/sports/bsb/2014-15/div1/teams/gulfcoaststatecollege?view=lineup

    He looks like a leadoff burner with 29 SB and 2 CS. He also had a 28:28 BB/K ratio over 200 at bats.

    Clint in Anaheim

    ReplyDelete
  4. Great scouting report DrB! I agree with you, really like this years draft, especially Miller. Any updates on getting the top picks signed? Also, is it time to move Crick to the bullpen?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know that moving Crick to the bullpen is necessarily the answer. He's walking too many batters for bullpen work too and you certainly could not use him in high leverage situations right now.

      Delete
  5. After the initial shock wore off, I really liked this class. I'll tell you what. The last two classes were pretty stocked with high school arms, and the Giants steered almost completely clear of them. That tells me they must have REALLY loved Cain, Bumgarner and Wheeler (though Cain & Bum were drafted in the pre-John Barr days). Once again, they are one of the most college-heavy drafting teams in the league. Hard to argue with them as they've built their entire infield out of college prospects... but it sure would have been nice to grab a guy like Beau Burrows in the 2nd round.

    Overall, I like this class. Other than one or two guys whose numbers stand out to me (Mazza in the 22nd), the names after the 11th round all run together for me at this point. I thought they did really well from 1-11, with the only obvious hole being prep pitching. Bickford could turn out to be one of the best pitching prospects from this class, and that is exciting. Shaw was on pace for 20 HR this season, which would have put him among the national leaders, before his wrist injury. Suarez pitched against Florida a couple nights ago. He's not fancy, and they hit him pretty well one inning. But he throws consistently 91-94 from the left side. I think he could be a solid prospect.

    Love the Miller and Marshall picks, and I have no beef with guys like Duggar and Hinojosa where they were picked. Ronnie Jebavy might be my favorite player in the class. Stud defensive CF with speed, a decent hit tool and a little pop... that's a nice snag!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hey Doc, a few days ago you mentioned in a minors recap that Kelby Tomlinson's offensive success is partly due to the Giants working with him to reduce a big leg kick. Do you think their success with that played a part in drafting Duggar? I am guessing they think they may be able to work the same magic and tap his potential.

    After reading an article on him in The Tennessean, I really like the Jabavy pick.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Miller signed for double slot. That's really interesting, something the Giants haven't done a lot of. They plucked a HS guy who was possibly falling on bonus demands. He might end up being the best pick of the draft.

    ReplyDelete