Sunday, April 19, 2015

Thoughts on the 2015 Draft

The 2015 MLB Rule 4 or Amateur Draft is now less than 2 months away, 50 days to be exact.  Interest is starting to heat up and draft rankings and mock drafts start to proliferate.  Despite winning the World Series last year, the Giants have a relatively high draft position at #18 plus they have a compensation round pick at #31 thanks to losing Pablo Sandoval to free agency.  I'm going to put in another plug for Covechatter who just put up the 5'th iteration of his mock draft and has obviously put a lot of research and thought into it.  His site is linked to the left.

First, a few general observations.  The top 5 of this draft is uncommonly weak without a clear-cut #1.  Teams holding top 5 picks may not want to spend their full slot bonus allotment on any single player in the draft, so may be looking to cut a deal with a player who is not generally ranked in the top 5 or even 10.  On the other hand, this draft looks like it has good players available well into the 3'rd round and beyond, which puts the Giants in a great position to get 2-3 players who are comparable to top of the draft talent, but for a much smaller signing bonus.  Thanks to the compensation pick, the Giants also have more bonus pool money to work with, making it possible to make some serious plays for high school talent later in the draft.

There is a fair amount of movement in the draft rankings and mock drafts.  In addition to the lack of clear cut top talent at the top of the draft, several previously highly ranked players have suffered serious injury while others have caught serious "helium" due to jumps in velocity or strong play on the field.  The 3 biggest injuries have been to RHP Mike Matuella and LHP Brady Aiken who both underwent TJ surgery, as well as LHP Kolby Allard who was shelved for the season with a stress fracture of a vertebrae(ouch!).   All 3 pitchers were ranked early on as top 10 draftees and have all undoubtedly slipped.  Last year's draft, though, showed that there are teams out there willing to draft high ceiling pitchers with current injuries, so all 3 of these guys may still go in Round 1.  Just probably not in the top 5.

Some names of players whose stock appears to be rising include college RHP Dillon Tate who is almost certainly top 5 at this point.  HS RHP Mike Nikorak seems to have some serious helium.  Many observers believe he is the top HS pitcher in the draft.  He could go as high as top 5.  RHP Kyle Funkhouser's stock took a hit early in the college season, but now appears to be rebounding into top 5 contention.  The current consensus top 3 includes HS SS Brendan Rodgers, Dillon Tate and Vandy SS Dansby Swanson.  The problem with all of those guys is they don't seem to be worth the $8 M slot bonus held by the Arizona D'Backs with the #1 overall pick.  On the other hand, compared to what Cuban prospects are getting these days, $8 M seems like a mere pittance, so go figure.

So, who does Covechatter think the Giants might pick with their #18 and #31 draft picks as well as their second round #61 overall?  Well, his Mock Draft Version 5 has the Giants taking HS catcher Chris Betts at #18 and HS RHP Beau Burrows at #31 with Alabama SS Mikey White at #61.  The Giants have almost obsessively stockpiled catching prospects ever since Buster Posey's injury in 2011.  Betts is the best catching prospect in the draft by a fairly large margin.  He's a LH hitter with power and has the tools to stick at catcher longterm.  He is ranked in the #18 range on multiple draft rankings and mock drafts.  On the other hand, HS catchers are notorious for busting as prospects.  Anyone remember Kyle Skipworth?  As for other rankings, BA has Betts ranked #18.  Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has college LHP Nate Kirby at #18.  He definitely does not fit the profile of a Giants first round draft pick as a soft-tossing lefty.  MLB has Nikorak ranked at #18, but he seems to have caught some serious helium as noted above.  My MLB Draft, updated 4/15 has the Giants taking jumbo, hard-throwing RHP Kyle Cody at #18.

Covechatter has the Giants taking HS RHP Beau Burrows at #31.  Burrows has premium stuff and advanced command of his pitches.  One thing I really like about Burrows is he ranked high in measured velocity and in FB spin rates using high tech measuring instruments in a showcase event last summer.  The only rap on Burrows is his size is not projectable at 6'1" or 6'2" and about 200 lbs.  On the other hand, how much projection do you need if you can already throw mid-90's?   For what it's worth, My MLB Draft also has Burrows going to the Giants at #31.   BA has HS 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, Charlie's kid, at #31.  Kiley McDaniel has another hard throwing RHP, Ashe Russell at #31 which seems to be a slippage in Russell's draft stock.  MLB ranks HS RHP Donny Everett, who is a bit of a Matt Cain clone, at #31.  One intriguing name is Alonzo Jones, who Covechatter has the Giants passing on for Burrows, with Jones going just 1 pick later at #32.  Much as I like Beau Burrows, Alonzo Jones looks like he could be a special player to me.  He can play either 2B or CF, has 80 speed and Popeye forearms.  I see him as a bit riskier than Burrows, but I love his ceiling!  Jones does not really fit the profile of the type of player the Giants have drafted in recent memory, but man, I would love to see them call his name somewhere on draft day!

Mikey White seems like a very typical Giantsy pick at #61.  He's a college up-the-middle player who could stick at SS and is just a bit under-the-radar.  He is currently hitting about .370 for Alabama in his junior year college season.  The guy I would like to see the Giants pick at #61, but I doubt they will, is Kep Brown who I think looks like a clone of Jayson Werth.  Brown is currently out for the rest of the season with a torn Achilles tendon.

16 comments:

  1. I really wished the Giants could get our hands on Kyle Tucker but it seems that every single day, he just rises to the draft boards. His swing seems closer to Josh Hamilton to me rather than Ted Williams or Junior as I had read on Fangraphs. I am not in the opposition to hoarding catchers even though we have the best in the game in Posey but I hope they don't go catcher this time because HS catchers are either Joe Mauers or Kyle Skipworths. I am hoping that the Giants is still in reach with Tucker, Aiken if his stock falls enough and Ian Happ or pick Nick Plummer at 18 (check him out DrB, I watched him on videos and he can be a terrific player).

    Wrenzie

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think the Giants were in on Kodi Medeiros last year but, the Brewers beat them to it. I think the Giants are in on another similar player Juan Hillman. The question is will they overdraft to get him. Would love to get Nick Plummer 18th, Juan Hillman 31st, and hope Jacob Nix or a Kyle Cody drop to 61st. With extra bonus pool money though it would be nice to go after some high upside/high risk HS players early.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What makes you think the Giants were in on Kodi Medeiros and why do you think they are in on Juan Hillman?

      Delete
  3. I tried to leave a comment earlier. Something must have went awry. Thanks for the plug DrB! I've been doing my best to stay current on the draft this year. Seems like most of the guys we like/have mentioned this year are moving up the boards (coincidence or savviness?). Donny Everett, Mike Nikorak, Kyle Tucker, Trent Clark, Bregman... My current belief is the Giants take a hitter at #18 and look for a prep arm in the supplemental round as they did in 2011. Could they pull the trigger on a guy like Everett at #18 (or a college arm like Ponce) if he's available? Of course. But if Betts is sitting there when they come up, I think they'd have a hard time laying off a catcher with that kind of bat and reportedly first class work ethic/6th tool.

    As a few prep arms start to get helium, Burrows is one name that's been a little quiet this spring. We know what he has to offer though, and I think the Giants would value his mix of velocity, polish and secondaries, despite his smaller frame.

    I like Hillman, but I have no idea whether the Giants are interested in him. I'm not sure anyone outside of the front office has any idea who they are interested in at this point.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Covechatter. I read through your latest mock draft. I can see you have put a lot of thought and work into it. We know that John Barr was in on Buster Posey from early in high school if not before. Betts seems to be cut out of a similar cloth. Wouldn't shock me at all if Barr is hoping and praying that Betts is there at #18. I also agree that Burrows is a guy the Giants might like a lot, especially at #31. They do like big pitchers but Timmy is proof they are not dogmatic about it. Burrows has velocity, command of 3 pitches and command of the FB to both sides of the plate. He could be a fast mover despite being a HS pitcher.

      Delete
    2. Do you have a reference? I just looked up a BA draft article dated 4/17/2015 in which Betts was ranked #18 and there was no mention of an injury. There was no mention of an injury in an article about Betts and RHP Kyle Molnar in BA dated 3/11/2015 either.

      Delete
    3. He's not injured that I know of. Maxpreps has him hitting .444 with 6 HR in 21 games, most recently April 15.

      Delete
    4. Thanks, Covechatter. Do you think Betts losing 25 lbs in preparation for his draft season, might make some teams leery of his future conditioning?

      Delete
    5. Oh, I'm sure it'll scare a few teams off. But I also think some teams will look at it as a sign of his attitude and work ethic too. One of our good guys (Giants fan) in SoCal is a client of Betts' mother (she supposedly works in real estate), and he has raved to me about Chris' makeup/6th tool. I've seen reports that back up those remarks, and that's a big reason why I think he fits the Giants mold of draftees.

      Delete
    6. My bad got him mixed up some other dude named Chris Shaw haha sorry!

      Delete
  4. Covechatter, can you think of any comparisons for Chris Betts? Is his tools similar to the Red Sox prospect Blake Swihart? Haven't checked on him really much as of this moment.

    Wrenzie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Wrenzie. I've seen his bat comp'd to Brian McCann (no small tidbit), and all reports seem to indicate he has that kind of offensive ceiling. I don't believe he'll ever be a gold glove winner behind the dish, but he apparently has a cannon for an arm. The big concern with Betts is whether he'll outgrow the catching position, but he has the current tools to stay behind the dish.

      Delete
    2. Thaks covechatter. I watched his videos and read extensive scouting reports on him and it seems that he can stay at being catcher due to losing 20 pounds if I'm not mistaken yet still having a cannon for an arm with the same above average hit tool and power. I read on a report that his father teaches to him the fine points of catching and been reported to call pitches since the age of 11. I feel he is going to be a great pick for the Giants along with some other prospects that I am happy to be picked by them. In the 61th pick, I hope the organization go risky and pick Demi Orimoloye from Canada but born in Nigeria. He got a mature frame already at 6'4"-225 but shown to have good and loud contact with the ball with really good power, perfect RF arm, really good speed and defense. He is still raw but one of the highest ceilings in the class IMO and his stock is reportedly rising.

      Wrenzie

      Delete
    3. Last I saw, Orimoloye was moving into the 1st round territory. I agree that he would be a nice high risk/reward pick, but he doesn't quite fit the mold of usual Giants first round picks. They tend to lean more "present tools" guys over raw prospects, especially since Barr took over draft scouting.

      Delete
    4. I also noticed that too with the Garcia and Arroyo picks. That said, the number of choices that we have at 18 and 31 are looking pretty good with the field wide open so far. I loved what I read and watched on Betts along with Plummer and with Burrows too though his delivery looks pretty max effort. I feel confident that the FO with not mess up.

      Wrenzie

      Delete