Thoughts on the 2015 Draft

The 2015 MLB Rule 4 or Amateur Draft is now less than 2 months away, 50 days to be exact.  Interest is starting to heat up and draft rankings and mock drafts start to proliferate.  Despite winning the World Series last year, the Giants have a relatively high draft position at #18 plus they have a compensation round pick at #31 thanks to losing Pablo Sandoval to free agency.  I'm going to put in another plug for Covechatter who just put up the 5'th iteration of his mock draft and has obviously put a lot of research and thought into it.  His site is linked to the left.

First, a few general observations.  The top 5 of this draft is uncommonly weak without a clear-cut #1.  Teams holding top 5 picks may not want to spend their full slot bonus allotment on any single player in the draft, so may be looking to cut a deal with a player who is not generally ranked in the top 5 or even 10.  On the other hand, this draft looks like it has good players available well into the 3'rd round and beyond, which puts the Giants in a great position to get 2-3 players who are comparable to top of the draft talent, but for a much smaller signing bonus.  Thanks to the compensation pick, the Giants also have more bonus pool money to work with, making it possible to make some serious plays for high school talent later in the draft.

There is a fair amount of movement in the draft rankings and mock drafts.  In addition to the lack of clear cut top talent at the top of the draft, several previously highly ranked players have suffered serious injury while others have caught serious "helium" due to jumps in velocity or strong play on the field.  The 3 biggest injuries have been to RHP Mike Matuella and LHP Brady Aiken who both underwent TJ surgery, as well as LHP Kolby Allard who was shelved for the season with a stress fracture of a vertebrae(ouch!).   All 3 pitchers were ranked early on as top 10 draftees and have all undoubtedly slipped.  Last year's draft, though, showed that there are teams out there willing to draft high ceiling pitchers with current injuries, so all 3 of these guys may still go in Round 1.  Just probably not in the top 5.

Some names of players whose stock appears to be rising include college RHP Dillon Tate who is almost certainly top 5 at this point.  HS RHP Mike Nikorak seems to have some serious helium.  Many observers believe he is the top HS pitcher in the draft.  He could go as high as top 5.  RHP Kyle Funkhouser's stock took a hit early in the college season, but now appears to be rebounding into top 5 contention.  The current consensus top 3 includes HS SS Brendan Rodgers, Dillon Tate and Vandy SS Dansby Swanson.  The problem with all of those guys is they don't seem to be worth the $8 M slot bonus held by the Arizona D'Backs with the #1 overall pick.  On the other hand, compared to what Cuban prospects are getting these days, $8 M seems like a mere pittance, so go figure.

So, who does Covechatter think the Giants might pick with their #18 and #31 draft picks as well as their second round #61 overall?  Well, his Mock Draft Version 5 has the Giants taking HS catcher Chris Betts at #18 and HS RHP Beau Burrows at #31 with Alabama SS Mikey White at #61.  The Giants have almost obsessively stockpiled catching prospects ever since Buster Posey's injury in 2011.  Betts is the best catching prospect in the draft by a fairly large margin.  He's a LH hitter with power and has the tools to stick at catcher longterm.  He is ranked in the #18 range on multiple draft rankings and mock drafts.  On the other hand, HS catchers are notorious for busting as prospects.  Anyone remember Kyle Skipworth?  As for other rankings, BA has Betts ranked #18.  Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has college LHP Nate Kirby at #18.  He definitely does not fit the profile of a Giants first round draft pick as a soft-tossing lefty.  MLB has Nikorak ranked at #18, but he seems to have caught some serious helium as noted above.  My MLB Draft, updated 4/15 has the Giants taking jumbo, hard-throwing RHP Kyle Cody at #18.

Covechatter has the Giants taking HS RHP Beau Burrows at #31.  Burrows has premium stuff and advanced command of his pitches.  One thing I really like about Burrows is he ranked high in measured velocity and in FB spin rates using high tech measuring instruments in a showcase event last summer.  The only rap on Burrows is his size is not projectable at 6'1" or 6'2" and about 200 lbs.  On the other hand, how much projection do you need if you can already throw mid-90's?   For what it's worth, My MLB Draft also has Burrows going to the Giants at #31.   BA has HS 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, Charlie's kid, at #31.  Kiley McDaniel has another hard throwing RHP, Ashe Russell at #31 which seems to be a slippage in Russell's draft stock.  MLB ranks HS RHP Donny Everett, who is a bit of a Matt Cain clone, at #31.  One intriguing name is Alonzo Jones, who Covechatter has the Giants passing on for Burrows, with Jones going just 1 pick later at #32.  Much as I like Beau Burrows, Alonzo Jones looks like he could be a special player to me.  He can play either 2B or CF, has 80 speed and Popeye forearms.  I see him as a bit riskier than Burrows, but I love his ceiling!  Jones does not really fit the profile of the type of player the Giants have drafted in recent memory, but man, I would love to see them call his name somewhere on draft day!

Mikey White seems like a very typical Giantsy pick at #61.  He's a college up-the-middle player who could stick at SS and is just a bit under-the-radar.  He is currently hitting about .370 for Alabama in his junior year college season.  The guy I would like to see the Giants pick at #61, but I doubt they will, is Kep Brown who I think looks like a clone of Jayson Werth.  Brown is currently out for the rest of the season with a torn Achilles tendon.