Monday, April 6, 2015

2015 Season Preview: NL West Predictions

The 2014-2015 offseason saw a change in management at 4 of the 5 NL West organizations.  The Giants, of course, have the same people in charge that they have had seemingly forever.  The Rockies new management mostly stood pat.  The D'Backs were very active in the Cuban market while the Dodgers and Padres were hyper-aggressive in the trade market with big changes to both clubs.  Here are my predicted final standings:

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers are not without questions marks, but undeniably have the best team on paper, and by a fairly large margin.  They did lose a ton of offense with the departures of Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon.  The added veteran savvy and improved D at the middle IF positions and Joc Pederson in CF might be the Rookie of All Ages, or he may not.  He will at least bring improved D to the OF.  The top 2 pitchers, Kershaw and Greinke are the best, but come with a hint of injury risk(I guess all pitchers do).  The rest of the staff is good, but very injury prone.  The bullpen behind Kenley Jansen, who starts the season on the DL, does not look obviously better.  All in all, though, I think you have to think the Dodgers will have no trouble winning the division again.  The postseason is a whole different story.

2.  San Francisco Giants- This team is really starting to show some age, especially on the pitching side. They are tough to project because the range of outcomes is so great.  On the one hand, the core of this team has accomplished so much.  On the other, there is a strong feel that they are nearing the end of a cycle and may need a year or 3 to re-tool.  Keys to the season are a strong comeback by Matt Cain, a rebound of any kind from Tim Lincecum and a breakout season from Brandon Belt, who really doesn't need to improve to breakout. He just needs to stay healthy all season!

3.  San Diego Padres- The Padres completely remake the offensive side of their team this offseason and completely sold out for power.  The pitching was already pretty good.  Power and pitching are a time honored winning combination.  They do sacrifice defense.  We'll see how much that will cost them.

4.  Colorado Rockies- This team can stay out of the cellar just with healthy seasons from Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.  Nolan Arenado at 3B is a widely predicted breakout candidate.  The pitching is a mess, but they have some young power arms close to being ready.

5.  Arizona D'Backs-  It's hard to figure out what Dave Stewart and the D'Backs are up to.  Stewart obviously loves power arms and Cubans with suspect resumes, but it really seems like they are putting their money and faith in the wrong places.  Josh Collmenter is a decent starting pitcher, but when Rubby De La Rosa is your #2, it promises to be a long season.

9 comments:

  1. Lester plus Sandoval: $250,000,000!
    Lester will be better than yesterday. Sandoval? Just hit your weight, Panda!

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  2. So this is not good! Jake Peavy scratched from tomorrow's start due to a bad back and Matt Cain scratched from Wednesday's start due to the dreaded forearm tightness. We may see Chris Heston a lot sooner than we thought!

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    1. Pavlovich writes that when Cain had bone chips removed, people around the team worried about Tommy John. What do bone chips, or removing them, have to do with TJ? Strain on the ligament from the arm being able to extend more fully than before?

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    2. as hard as bochy tried, he could not keep the sp healthy past the spring...not his nor the giants fault

      it is what it is

      cant even be upset about the wheeler trade anymore, cuz he blew out his arm

      but now we see why sabean made sure to sign both petit and vogey

      and why we should expect a bunch of spot starts from others on the 40 man

      in other news, fat boy went ofer with 3ks

      its opening day and all is right with the world

      PLAY BALL


      bacci

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    3. I was thinking about that after I read the report about the forearm tightness. I wonder if the bone chips were actually protecting the UCL by not allowing full extension?

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    4. could be, or could be not enough conditioning post surgery....or could be that cain has logged a ton of miles on that arm

      either way, very glad they brought back both petit and vogey

      bacci

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    5. Probably not conditioning per se. It's just that the elbow structures have not been extended like that for several years.

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  3. Just read that and my jaw dropped. Cain's loss would be huge if he has to have TJ. Not good news to start the year with on a team that had questions already. Timmy is going to need to step up.

    Billy Baseball

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  4. From MLB Rumors:

    12:45am: After tonight’s win over the D-Backs, Bochy told reporters that there’s no torn ligament in Cain’s elbow and the injury is more of a “two week thing,” via Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter).

    Are you ready for your debut Mr Heston?

    Billy Baseball

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