We have not heard a peep out of the Giants camp since the Lester deal went south, or north depending on your point of view. Meanwhile several players who have been mentioned as free agent options went off the board yesterday in a new flurry of activity around the Hot Stove.
Melky Cabrera signed a 3 year/$42 M deal with the White Sox. Cabrera was looking for a 5 year deal so apparently settled. At one point the Giants were thought to be interested in bringing Melky back to play LF. Melky is 30 years old which makes this a nice deal for the White Sox. On the other hand, he is a negative defender and has to pretty much hit .300 to contribute on offense. He also would have cost the Giants a first round draft pick to sign him. No great loss here.
Chase Headley agreed to a 4 year/$52 M deal with the Yankees with a chance to earn an extra $1 M each year if he makes 550 PA's. Headley was the last viable replacement for Pablo Sandoval left on the market. This is one I personally wanted for the Giants. He has out-produced Pablo by fWAR every year for the last 3 years and just signed for barely over half Pablo's cost. He does have his warts. He has had back issues and went through a prolonged slump at the plate which he seemed to come out of in the second half last year. Maybe the Giants really weren't that into him or maybe he just wanted to remain a Yankee. IMO, it's a good deal for the Yanks and one the Giants may come to wish they had topped.
Jed Lowrie agreed to a 3 year/$23 M deal with the Houston Astros. Again, there was talk of the Giants signing Lowrie and moving him to 3B. Lowrie's camp went so far as to signal his willingness to move. I believe Houston is his hometown and he will get to play SS there. His downside is his lengthy injury history.
Alex Rios agreed to a 1 year/$11 M deal with the KC Royals. Rios had a down year in 2014 largely due to a thumb injury and is looking to rebuild his value on a 1 year deal. This is a couple of $M more than I thought he might get, but still a nice risk/reward for KC. On the downside, Rios' D has been slipping which might be less likely to come back than the bat.
Michael Morse is rumored to be close to a 2 year deal with the Marlins. A bit of a surprise he would not go to an AL team where he could DH. The Marlins have an opening for at least a platoon at 1B where his D is not nearly the liability that it is in LF. The bat is good enough for 1B. Happy for Morse if this is true. Wish him the best. He was a good Giant!
Where this all leaves the Giants is unclear, but they are looking more and more like they are up a creek without a paddle. They are presumably in negotiations with James Shields who will likely overpriced, at least in number of years and will cost the first round draft pick. At this point, I don't think Shields alone is enough of a difference maker to be worth losing the draft pick. Shields just seems like the pitching version of Aaron Rowand to me. I would rather go after Edinson Volquez who looks like he would cost about a 2 year/$18-20 M. He's had his ups and downs but is still relatively young and still has good stuff.
As I mentioned, there are no obvious 3B options left on the market. They might consider signing Gordon Beckham on the cheap and letting him compete for the 3B job, although he is not a clear upgrade on internal options. They might be able to swing a deal with Boston for Brock Holt or for my White Whale, Garin Cecchini. Chris Johnson in Atlanta is probably available by trade, but it's pretty tough to get too excited about him.
As for LF, they might try to revive the Justin Upton talks but he would be costly and they would be only getting him for 1 year. Besides, Upton is on record as hating AT&T Park. They might be better off just going with Blanco as a stopgap until one of Carbonell, Williamson or Horan are ready. Again, it seems like Gary Brown should get a decent look somewhere in all this, not that he deserves it.
Man! It may all still work out in the end, but so far, this offseason is looking like a disaster!
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Even if Cain and Pagan come back 100% healthy we are still in trouble. No clear 3B in the system and SP is looking more bleak by the day. You are correct in saying Shields won't fix anything. Its like we might have to overpay for Scherzer to get enough WAR value to where we are close to competing. I have not seen the Giants FO look so lost and desperate since they wanted to trade for Ryan Garko and Shea Hillenbrand.
ReplyDeleteOmar Infante from the Royals is a name to watch. I know the Giants tried to get him last off season and Royals might need to shed a little payroll after getting Rios.
ReplyDeleteNever been more exhausted than watching the Giants doing nothing.
ReplyDeleteGood point. As we watch Plan D options heading elsewhere it's difficult to fathom what is happening. Are the Giants really being burned or do we have realistic contingenies for our current situation?
DeleteAnd there goes Morse to the Marlins, as a first-baseman.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, perhaps they're showing a bit of confidence in the internal options.
Thought on 3B: how about Juan Francisco as sort of a lefty Brandon Hicks to platoon with someone from the right-handed options (Arias, Duffy, Duvall, Perez....)?
Sitting here wondering if SABEAN indeed has a plan B/C or rather is now frozen in paralaysis or, more likely, stubbornness and anger after being jilted by Lester, Sandoval, Tomas and maybe others. I understand the Lester/Sandoval decisions but I'd really like to know IF other players turned down the Giants, why they did...Oh well, never happen..
ReplyDeleteEverybody knows they have HUGE holes as 3B, LF and the rotation...Their pursuit of Lester, Tomas, and Sandoval confirmed it . Those needs and desires haven't disappeared, yet the Giants remain quiet.....Hopefully, they are working behind the scenes and going about there business..
There is nothing left in FA IMO...Some think we can get by with the ilk of Vogey, Volquez, etc..NOT me, way too much uncertainty in the pros and in the prospects over the next few years....We need certaintiy for at least three years..JMO....ANd, broken rcord, that only leaves SHIELDS and HAMELS....
As for position players, there is zero left at 3B in conventional FA and maybe Aoki is about it in the OF....Are the Giants enamored with this KOREAN SS/3B that is being posted? There seem to be a lot of questions about him BUT if the Giants truly like him, the FO has earned my trust.
I've seen enough of our internal options--Perez, Duvall Arias,Adrianza, even Duffy right now--they are bench/role players. External players NEED to be brought it and now it is basically down to the trade market for three players or two depending on whether the Giants act on their need for a significant arm (SHIELDS)...
We'll see....
SteveVA
I would much rather sign Vogelsong or Volquez than give Shields, a 34 year old, a 4-5 year deal worth 9 figures. Sure, if we can somehow sign him for 3 years I could be on board. I highly doubt that will happen. Then there is the draft pick compensation. Chances are our pick will end up being 17th or 18th. You feel confident that James Shields is worth close to $100M and a 17th or 18th overall pick? I think somebody might have spiked your egg nog.
DeleteWhat is baffling to me is that the Giants have even missed out on low-risk one-year buy-low deals like Masterson and Morrow. What is the front office doing?!?
DeleteI think it's looking more and more likely that the Giants weren't keeping tabs on some of these other guys and didn't have time to catch up after Lester turned them down.
At least they'll be saving a lot more money next year now . . .
Hmm..at least you said egg nog and not the normal sophomoric "pass the bong" disagreement stance
DeleteAnyway, What I see in the Giants future rotation is MADBUM, a huge amount of hope that Matt CAIN returns to normal, HOPEFULLY one more year of a decent 40 year old Tim Hudson, and the inconsistency and frustration of Tim Lincecum for one more year. There is nothing else, nothing in the minors... Pehaps for TWO YEARS.This team DESPERATELY needs a strong and consisitent arm that can rock in the regular season for the next three or four years. That is James SHIELDS (or HAMELS if you like)...I don't want to dumpster dive for two-three slots in the rotation each of the next two years...I don't see much left in Vogey..Not impressed with Volquez as an answer....As I have said before, I'd overpay for SHIELDS for a 3-4 year contract, 5-6 years is another story. And I would also give up the prospects needed for Hamels
As for the draft pick lost for Shields, don't want to lose it at all, but I think the rotation is in HORRIBLE shape as it stands for the next few years and you never know with the touted lower level prospects,
.I'm open to other solutions but I don't see what's left in FA being one of them....
Just My Worhtless Opinion.
SteveVA
You know I was joking. Don't take it to heart. I just think that 2016 has a lot of pitchers available and we shouldn't be overpaying for a guy like Shields.
Delete2016 list includes Fister, Zimmerman, Greinke if he opts out, Gallardo, Samardzija, Kennedy, Norris, etc. We have a lot of money coming off the books this year and we could position ourselves for 2 of those pitchers. Of course I wouldn't mind going crazy and getting Scherzer but it isn't going to happen. So we should be conservative and get Vogey or Volquez. Its the smart move considering our options at this point. Maybe put a trade together for Justin Upton and if he leaves we get an extra pick in 2016 to soften the blow of getting a QO offer guy in the list of 2016 FA's above.
Maybe I'm just basking in the glow of the third ring, but while tired I'm not all that disappointed. Personally, I love Panda but 5 years at 100mm (give or take) was just a recipe for disaster. I say in 2 years, he's eaten his way out of the contract. Lester was a nice play, but we do have a ton of pitchers coming up. Beede, Crick and Blackburn, plus Madbum, could be special. That doesn't include any number of other guys. So, yeah good to get but not horrible to lose. Now going with someone who is going to cost us a pick? Just say no! I was not motivated by any of the LF candidates. Melky? Please. Morse was lights out for some of the season but hurt for the rest and his defense killed us.
DeleteI think it is really that the FO is thinking ahead and gets we have 3 high round choices, and several candidates for both CF and LF coming up. As for 3rd base, Arias was defensively ok and i'm wondering if they are thinking about either Duffy (I don't know why he'd be less likely than Panik, but maybe his arm isn't as strong) or EA there. Maybe they will give Duvall a shot, but given his D and his Niekro like bat, who knows. To me this somewhat feels like the somewhat Panik (sic) driven drama at mid season where several thought it was suicide to not go outside the organization to fix Scutaro. I understand we have less "on the radar" options but at some point maybe it isn't as bad as we think. We also have a ton of money coming off the books next year (Scutaro, Lincecum and Hudson are close to $30mm) so if they guess wrong, they can hit the market next year. Course, I got my Three Rings Sunglasses on.
ROGER - No prob...but used to hearing things like that at another site...Anyway, I just don't think the WS champs with overflowing money coffers are in the position to be focusing on the uncertain FA pool of 2016. It is a team and organization that should be going for the WS every year (within reason). And I honestly think that's what Sabean has done every year--going for the WS, not afraid to give up prospects, but not going crazy. And he has done a fantastic job. The best in the biz. But I'm not seeing happen this year although the attempt was there at the beginning...Doesn't mean it ain't happening as we joust either
DeleteI like BOTH Hamels and SHIELDS and both are definitely available while Fister, Zimmerman, Grienke and the rest may never be (signed before FA) or will just be a repeat of Lester.
I think the Giants can make the POs without going crazy at 3B and OF but one thing they do need to win (I think last year was kind of an aberration) is very good starting pitching...And the team doesn't have anything close to that (in fact, very, very uncertain)...and if they wait a year...it might all be for nothing...As for the position players, I gotta say I don't like a single one of the internal alternatives for 3B and LF but this is where I expect Sabes to be creative and shrewd..
However, I am with you on UPTON even if Johnson comes along for the ride.
SteveVA
I am with you on Hamels. We will agree to disagree on Shields. The draft pick is worth way too much for a pitcher that old. Also, he is going to get 5 years or 4 year and an option from someone. Hopefully that will not be us.
DeleteSounds like Upton may be going to the Mariners after all (or maybe Ian Desmond of the Expos/Nats). I'd be open to the Upton/Johnson deal for AT&T.
DeleteI like Hamels trade possibility (if not too crazy: Panic, Susac, Duffy, Beede, Crick silliness I have seen put out recently). No on Shields for all the reasons mentioned. And I think we have a strong shot at Doug Fister next year...bring the Merced boy home!!!
Great discussion gents.
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Roger,
DeleteAs someone who is very invested in prospects/draft picks, etc., I have to ask: Is the value of a late teens draft pick really worth way more than a 4 year deal for a guy who's been a workhorse almost his whole career? Especially when the Giants have a supplemental pick in the same draft? I love prospects as much (and probably a lot more) than the next fan, but I'd rather have a guy who gives us an automatic upgrade in the rotation RIGHT NOW over the #19 pick. The odds of snagging a superstar there... they aren't high.
I was wrote a response that said the same thing down below
DeleteIt's admittedly a close call with Shields. I guess the problem I am having is I think it's going to take 5 years to sign Shields, at 33 he is entering a time in his career where a lot of pitchers really start to lose it. He has a ton of mileage on that arm with something like 6 or 7 consecutive seasons with over 200 IP. Not that projections are everything, but his Steamer projection for next year is an ERA of 3.60. That's not bad, but it's not what you would expect out of a Lester or Scherzer or Hamels. The question then becomes how much is that going to really help a team which also clearly has issues in the bullpen, 3B and LF? Then you get into what the last 3 years of that contract are likely to look like.
DeleteAs for the other side of the coin, the draft pick. I would just point to Matt Cain and Joe Panik as guys who were picked in the bottom third of the first round.
Who might sign or can afford Sherzer? How is his market looking like?
ReplyDeleteBoston? Dodgers? New York? Detroit? I am just curious. How many teams are going to come up with the amount of money that is being talked about?
The only thing preventing me from mentioning SCHERZER along with HAMELS and SHIELDS is that I can't see the Ginats meeting BORAS'S asking price or waiting for the long drama to play out..But, wouldn't that be something if they were negotiating with him right now! I',m willing to overpay a little!
ReplyDeletesteveVA
See the Dodgers just Df'd Wilson.
ReplyDeleteRichard in Wnnipeg
The end of their (Ned induced) obsession with former Giants?
DeleteVanadive is still obsessed with the Warriors though, it seems. Perhaps Sacrament is to San Francisco, for him, is what San Jose is to the City, for the A's.
You know, the one thing that surprises me is the total lack of rumors, tweets, specualtions from the bevy of Giant beat reporters. We all know (OK, hope) Sabean and the FO are still working hard on the Off season, but there hasn't been a peep since last Thursday,..,,Maybe they long ago gave up in trying to get info from the tight lipped Giants org and/or are afraid to speak out of turn? Just specualting..:)
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Historically, Sabes has done his best work under the radar.
DeleteVery true Doc..That's why Any minute I expect to read about a trade with Philly for Hamels and Utley...Just kidding...
DeleteSteveVA
Andy Baggarly quit CSN to write his latest book, Hank Schulman appeared to be off last week but he has been tweeting today and John Shea tweets here and they about the Giants. Yes, no real concrete speculations from any of them.
ReplyDeleteWe have 3 of the top 50 picks.Keep those picks.Front office doing a good job.Those guys just want to beat us.That's competition.Sign Correa or Kendrick's.Resign Vogey.Vogey and Petit are nice weapons out of the pen.Maybe Cabrera will change his mind about 3B.If not maybe trade low level prospect for Viciedo.
ReplyDeleteThat is true. And it's Sabean's job to not let them beat or catch up to us. I honestly don't think losing Morse and Panda (maybe Romo too) and signing question marks likeViciedo, Vogey, Correa or Kendrcik help us out in that task. But we shall son see what Sabean has in mind...I hope
DeleteSteveVA
Chris Haft from MLB.com believes Lonnie Chisenhall, Casey McGehee or Will Middlebrooks are the most available for a potential trade for 3B. Asdrubal Cabrera apparently does not want to play the hot corner. Supposedly he would play 2B if Panik could handle 3B. Seems not likely. Out of those people I tend to lean towards Chisenhall.
ReplyDeleteI agree with PiLamBear's thinking in the post above. Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder how hard the Giants really went after Lester and Panda. We know what the numbers were, but we were not there behind the scenes to know the actual conversations and dealings. I'm not sure they were even all that disappointed that they lost out. And then Sabean pretty much closes the door on Headley. They were mildly linked to other FA's but no real action. I think they lay low this year, maybe make a few small additions, perhaps a minor trade or two in-season, and gauge how their prospects are developing. Then next off season, when the market is much more appealing and they have more funds than they know what to do with they will dive into the FA market in earnest. I don't think they are being complacent or resting on their laurels, but I think they just don't want to commit to players who they really don't feel are good long term investments. Plus they probably feel they don't have a long-suffering fan base begging them to go all out (unlike other more desperate franchises), and who are likely to abandon the team if they don't appear to be "trying to win" since they have already shown a pattern of on again off again seasons.
ReplyDeleteThe following observations appear evident to me:
ReplyDelete1) The Giants FO has a MO of building through the draft and making smaller trades rather than big splash free agent signings. This seems to be suggestive in the post-Zito era.
2) The Giants appear to have more challenges attracting FA hitters to play long-term at AT&T.
3) The Giants do not appear interested in gambling via opening the checkbook for overpriced / long signings.
4) The Giants appear to be a team that will fit the mold of "torture" baseball with "misfits and cockroaches" that band together with pitching/defense first.
5) We all want a Christmas gift, but let's be honest-- 3 in 5 is already a great tradition.
I agree with all 5, but being a longtime Mariners fan as well - most strongly with #2 above. There is plenty of HiCal (and LoCal) talent that the Camps by the Bay could court. Fister in 2016 for Ring #4!!!
DeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Patience. Patience. Patience. Sometimes the best move is no move. Consider this: Every team in the NL West has a new GM. So they've got to make some moves. Time will tell if they were good or bad moves. The Padres, Rockies, D-Backs and the Dodgers are all chasing the Giants. We will miss Sandoval and Morse. The Giants will find a way to fill there spots.And to be honest, I don't think the Giants are missing out on any of the FA signings so far. After 19 years as GM, Brian Sabean has shown he knows what he is doing. It's good to be World Series Champions!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the scrapheap, I see former farmhand Scott Barnes has been dfa'd again, this time by the Rangers. He's 27 and had a 10.2/4.2 SO/W ratio in AAA last year, 3.69 ERA, and lefties hit .191/.296/.255 against him. Hard to believe something couldn't be salvaged there.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I think I would prefer James Shields (33 years old) on a 4 year deal (ideally 3 years with a vesting IP option) as compared to trading prospects for Cole Hamels(31 years old). I understand that our first round pick would be surrendered with the Shields signing, but I prefer that over losing all our top prospects like Crick, Susac and Mella that Philly is asking for.
ReplyDeleteShields has proven to be pretty consistent and would be a great guy as long as he is not expected to be the ace of the staff. I would offer 3 years 65M with a 18-20M vesting option or 4 years 80M for Shields. Getting the Pablo compensation makes this an easier decision that we have at least 1 pick in the 30s.
Present: Bumgarner, Cain, Shields, Hudson and Lincecum would be a fantastic SP staff with Petit in long relief. Shields has been a horse and would provide innings that will save the bullpen for Timmy. Looking forward: With both Tims coming off the books for 2016 having 3 solid innings eaters in Bum, Cain and James would be ideal for bringing along a prospect or 2 for the 2016 season.
My problem is I don't think they are going to get Shields for less than 5 years. If they can, I might be less averse to the idea of losing the draft pick
DeleteYes, Shields has been a horse, but so had Matt Cain. He has a ton of mileage on that arm.
I'm not really wild about trading for Hamels either, but I think he is a better pitcher than Shields by quite a bit.
Prospect or not, Susac is our back up catcher and if you can trade a back up catcher as part of a deal to get a guy like Cole Hammels, then that's not a bad deal. There is also a better than 50/50 chance that Crick ends up as a reliever and Mella is still aways away and if you keep your pick you could probably find some similar in this draft. This would be a good deal if they went with it. Hamels is a good pitcher.
DeleteBilly Baseball
I don't see a big trade for a pitcher happening now. You all want a pitcher because the rotation is so full of question marks. But it is hard to justify that big contract when the rotation is so full of question marks. It's Overworked Bum, Recovery Cain, The New Old New Lincecum, Aged Hudson, and reliever record holder Petit. if 4 of those 5 put up 4+ ERA and 3 of those are 5+ or put back in the pen, one Shields or Hamels won't make this a 90 win team. So better to shotgun it, and hope some dumpster dives provide competition and replacement for horses that go lame. If Linceum can't pull, and Petit is only good facing a lineup twice, and Cain goes back on the DL for some more recovery, better to have two or three guys that can step in rather than another ace "stopper" to partner with MadBum.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand Lester "just cost money" and could be good for the majority of his contract and payoff even with a dead year or two at the end. So go for him. But with question marks on Shield, plus money, plus years, plus draft pick, they may well not think he is worth it until the price/years go way down. But that will only happen over time as his market doesn't develop the way he wants. Boras wants the moon for Sherzer. And the Phillies (justifiably) want the stars for Hamels. So no comparison with the Lester situation. ... And the Giants slowly back away.
I totally understand you with the question marks. So many people want to get Shields but if Hudson and Lincecum implode what is the point. Then you spent all that money on a guy whose best days are behind him and at best be a #3. Cain is the wild card. If he just comes back and keeps us in games I will be excited. I am not expecting the Cain of 2012. Hamels and Scherzer are a different story. They could really bring value to the rotation. Maybe if we take over Hamels contract completely then the haul of prospects is not as bad as everyone thinks.
ReplyDeleteI say don't break the bank and sign Edinson Volquez to a 2 year deal. Trade for Lonnie Chisenhall to play 3B. Then we will be completely flexible to retool a few positions in 2016. Also, we will be very able to make some mid season trades and waiver claims. Teams that fall out of competition will want to cut payroll. We will be ready for that. We just need to stay competitive. Stay within 6-7 games of first place.
You wanted a big FA signing, you got it, Romo 2 years, $15 million. I guess it is not too bad considering the Bums are paying Brian Wilson $9.5 million to pitch for anyone but them! Personally I can see this coming back to bite them but what are you going to do.
ReplyDeleteThe amount of quality pitching is way up. Since 2008 the amount of pitchers with a sub 3.50 ERA with at least 120IP has gone from 47 to 107 (numbers are close pulling on memory). BA in MLB averaged out to .251. Any money spent should be on hitting and then pick up cheap guys off the heap for pitching. Where the hitting will come from I am not sure at this point-I am ok with it coming from overseas and/or getting prospects.
ReplyDeleteI think that PiLamBear gets my award for post of the day. I wanted Lester bad as I think we need another strong lefty in the rotation. Once he was gone I just wanted to take my toys and go home. I think Arias can hit enough to play 3rd and not totally kill us and like Doc, I am fine with Blanco being the starter in LF. Just sign Vogie for one more year and let's see what happens. I really do like Chisenhall quite a bit but he faded pretty bad towards the end of the season after tearing it up for pretty much the whole first half of the season. Big game James sure didn't look like he was worth 20 million a year in the WS and that arm is going to fall off sooner rather than later. The way I see it, Sabean put a dollar figure on each player and was not willing to go over his evaluation. It is disappointing some of these guys are getting so much money but that just means we better hit on our draft picks more now than ever before. I feel pretty good in thinking our minor league players will have a ton more value at this time next year than they do now. I can handle only winning the WS every other year.
ReplyDelete