Truth #1: Buster Posey is not moving to 3B!
Here's why: Because Buster Posey is the best damn catcher in baseball and gives the Giants a huge competitive advantage at the position. Besides, Buster does not want to move to 3B and Buster gets what Buster wants.
Truth #2: Buster Posey will not play 1B full-time in the near future!
Here's why: See Truth #1 except for 1B.
Truth #3: Brandon Belt is not moving to LF!
Here's why: Because Brandon Belt is a damn good first baseman and the Giants do not have anyone to replace him. He has not played one inning of LF for at least 2 years. Back when he did play LF he made 3 errors in 35 games which projects to about 15 errors in a full season which is a heckuva lot for an OF. I bet Bruce Bochy can tell you exactly when and how each of those errors were made.
Truth #4: Brandon Crawford is not moving to 3B!
Here's why: Because Brandon Crawford is a damn good SS. Besides, if you have, say, Adrianza and Crawford on the field at the same time, it does not matter which one plays SS or 3B on the offensive side and you are not going to make the incumbent starter who is doing a good job move.
Truth #5: Tim Lincecum is not going to be the Giants Closer!
Here's why: Because soft-tossing RHP's with poor command do not make good closers.
Around the League:
One more Truth: Torii Hunter is not going to be the Giants LF! Here's why: Torii Hunter just signed a contract to play baseball for the Minnesota Twins.
A couple of strange moves by the Dodgers:
They traded RHP Matt Magill for OF Chris Heisey. Not that there is anything inherently wrong with trading Magill for Heisey, but what on Earth are the Dodgers going to do with Heisey? Especially when Heisey is due to make $2.5 M in Arbitration?
The Dodgers also avoided arbitration with Darwin Barney by agreeing to pay him $2.5 M. Again, nothing wrong with paying a reserve IF $2.5 M, but Darwin Barney?
Lastly, I thought it was a bit strange when Josh Donaldson commented after his trade to Toronto that he had expected to be traded this offseason. Really? I don't think anybody else expected it! Now we may know why: Turns out, according to the SF Chronicle that Donaldson and A's GM Billy Beane hated each other. It seems that somewhere around midseason, during a stretch of consecutive games, Donaldson asked A's Manager Bob Melvin for a couple of days off which Melvin gave him. Then Billy Beane noticed Donaldson was not in the lineup and demanded to know why. Nothing wrong with that. The GM would logically need to know if a player was injured or something. But when Billy found out the reason he blew up and demanded a meeting with Donaldson and Melvin in Melvin's office. Billy reportedly told Donaldson that if he needed a couple of days off he should go on the DL. Donaldson took exception to that and called Beane "Billy Boy" to his face. The two never patched things up and reportedly hated each other by the end of the season.
Ain't nobody looking good in that one!
DrB, I fully agree about Belt and Crawford. Crawford doesn't hit well enough to play a corner position. Belt is not playing LF unless we somehow traded for a guy that can only play 1B like Mike Napoli, Prince Fielder, etc which isn't going to happen. However, I think you could be wrong about Posey for one reason. Concussions. If Posey had the bad luck like Hector Sanchez and had multiple concussions behind the plate I think he would be temporarily moved. We cannot afford to not have him in the lineup. So, I think you are right for the next few years minus him getting a few concussions in a short period of time which most likely is not going to happen. You are definitely right about him not getting moved for a pure baseball move. He is not only a good catcher but a great leader. The catcher has a lot to say about how the pitches go and the tempo of the game.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what the Dodgers are doing. These small moves don't make any sense to me. I believe they will trade one of their OF this offseason. Most likely Kemp because Ethier and Crawford I don't think have much value and are owed a ton of money. I think a lot of teams were waiting for the tender deadline to see what players would get non-tendered before they made any drastic moves.
I liked your armchair GM. I know you don't like to think of moves/trades unless their is a probability of it happening or the player is said to be available. However, myself and a lot of the people on here find it interesting. The armchair GM is a cool way to do just that. My point is that none of us here are GM's or baseball personnel so if we aren't thinking outside of the box of how to make the Giants better, then what are we doing. All of us are here because we are passionate baseball fans and we enjoy anything Giants related. You give us a retreat from our everyday lives and the option to vent or express ourselves. I love the blog and cannot wait for the top prospect list.
Thanks, Roger.
DeleteMoving Kemp seems silly to me. He's a big part of the middle of the order. Without him, their lineup becomes much easier to navigate.
DeleteAs for Posey, someday will come when he needs to log more time at first, especially if Susac is the real deal.
In the meantime, Brandon Belt better take some flyballs in left in ST. Posey is going to catch 100-120 games next year. He's not able to DH 40 times. He may take 1B for 30 games. If Brandon Belt is stroking the ball and not striking out at an alarming clip, they'll need a place to put him in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Hint: it won't be third base.
When the time is right, move Belt to fill position/s of need (right now it would be left field and I'm pretty sure Starlin Marte isn't available).
Once again. Let's all say it together. Brandon Belt is not moving to LF!
Deletesorry, you're not getting a consensus on that one. bereft of middle of the order hitters, Giants will have a hard time sitting him those extra games. But if it turns out he's not that good, then it's much easier to sit him down. If Ishikawa can manage, Belt can do likewise.
DeleteI should have said trade Belt instead of move Belt. Thought that was implied by referencing Marte.
DeleteAgain, a smattering of LF duty for Belt is within the realm of possibility.
A bit of Belt in LF would be interesting. But it's true he has virtually no experience in the position (and what he wasn't exactly filling me with confidence) having been a pitching prospect before a shoulder injury sent him to 1B.
DeleteBut if I'm gong to play GM, I'll give it a shot. Even though I know Bochy and Sabean are unlikely to move that way.
I agree that the Giants aren't likely to move Crawford to third. But although DrB and Roger agree with each other that he doesn't hit well enough to play third, I can hardly help pointing out that his ISO this past year was about the same as, and in fact a bit better than, Sandoval's for 2013 or 2014. His wRC+ of 102 wasn't appreciably lower than Sandoval's of 111 last year. Each year from Crawford these stats have improved.
DeleteI'm a believer in factual evidence. I assume that DrB is too, both from this blog and from his scientific profession. I assume that Roger is too, since he believes in thinking outside the box. Well, here is some statistical evidence. It does not show that the Giants will violate the fundamental truth that DrB has articulated, no Crawford to third, but it might serve to temper some unjustified assumptions.
Campanari, I did some research and Crawford's ISO and WAR are just slightly behind Panda's which is pretty good. He is a pretty impressive player that gets no respect. The problem that I see with moving him to 3B is he is a plus defender at SS. Minus Andrelton Simmons and he probably has a golden glove. So, the next question is if we move Crawford to 3B, who do you suggest we put at SS. If your answer ends in Duffy or Adrianza then I do not agree. The both of them have very little MLB experience (Duffy 60 AB, Adrianza 97 AB). Let me know if we trade for Alexei Ramirez, Starlin Castro or Alcides Escobar and then I am on board with the move. Until then Crawford stays at 3B.
DeleteThanks, Roger. I was mostly objecting to the assumption that Crawford's hitting was too weak for third. As to the rest of your comment, I've been arguing that he would be likely to be very much a plus defender at third, as he is now at SS, and that at third he might be less liable to have his performance damaged by injury.
DeleteI agree that the Giants may have no good replacement for him at SS. But I'm troubled that they don't know because the one player on their roster who promises to be comparable in the field, Adrianza, has been given so little chance to prove himself as a hitter. He has had, as you say, fewer than 100 ABs. The negative consequences of this are two. First, the team may incur a needless expense, to fill an infield gap with a mediocrity such as Lowrie or Beckham (or, Shankbone argues, Headley), when they might better find out first whether with more, regular ABs, they could get equivalent results from Adrianza. At worst, they would have a loss on offense for a month or six weeks if the Adrianza experiment failed. At best, they would have saved a good bit of money that they could apply to advantage elsewhere, or kept the players that they might have to give up in a trade. The second problem I see is that if Adrianza gets no chances he will be of very minor worth to the Giants on the field or as a trade chip. That is not good for them or him.
What I'm urging is, in your terms, thinking outside the box. Very likely, as DrB says, this thinking outside the box is a strategy that Sabean won't employ. I regret that.
Please notice that I did not say anything about Crawford not hitting well enough for 3B in my "Here's Why." It is because he is too good a SS! OK, you may say Adrianza is at least as good a defensive SS and would enable Crawford to move to 3B. I counter that by saying you do not move the incumbent who is doing a great job. You move the new guy. Since they are both on the field at the same time anyway, it does not make any difference which one plays 3B so by default, you would move Adrianza there before you would move Crawford.
DeleteAbsolutely. I said move Crawford because he has demonstrated the excellence of his arm for making the throws from third. If Adrianza's got the cannon, then sure, put him at third.
DeleteI would prefer to find a better hitter than Adrianza for 3B, but he definitely has the arm. Duffy, I'm not so sure about.
DeleteI agree, but it's fun to play 'what if!'
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
Delete"Then Billy Beane noticed Donaldson was not in the lineup and demanded to know why. Nothing wrong with that."
ReplyDeleteOnly if the GM asks once in a while.
It would be weird, for me anyway, if a GM demands to know the reason for the lineup each game. I think a GM might wonder to himself about the lineup each game, but talks about it later with the manager or if a patterns show up, unless it's something really out of place. One game - note Donaldson had been playing (so it would his first missed game in quite some time) - is not a big deal, even for your key players.
But Billy Boy has a reputation and so, it's likely he was still meddling with the lineup everyday.
I'm pretty sure Brian Sabean knows why a key player is not in the lineup each day. It is important for the GM to know if a player is nursing an injury of just needs a blow.
DeleteThe reaction to your theory on Posey staying at catcher will affect Susac. Mc Covey and Cepeda...one had to go. I'm not sure Susac will want to be a career back up. Not sure he can play another position. I'm sure Management will look at the catching position as depth from which they can trade from. Right now is the best time to sell high on Susac. People/fans want to move Posey to 3B or 1B because Susac is also an above average catcher. On top of that you still have Hector Sanchez. So, if Posey stays at C, I don't see Susac for long with the Giants. He is too good to be sent to the minors. Too good to be a back up. Besides Crick, has the most trade value from minor leagues.
ReplyDeleteAndrew Susac has not choice but to be a backup for at least 6 years or when the Giants decide to make him the starter, whichever comes first. The Giants control his contract for 6 years.
Delete….er, no choice.
DeletePosey can catch all he wants, UNLESS he dies in the stretch-run.
ReplyDeleteWhich Posey did.
He caught about 110 games in the 2014 regular season.
If the Giants are still running out there in late October next year and beyond, Posey needs to catch less. That is just the way it is.
I agree. The issue with Posey steadfast saying "I won't move," is that it's potentially hurting the team in multiple ways. First - as stated by the Anon above - this is not the first season where Buster has faded BADLY in the final stretch. Secondly, the Giants have a top tier offensive prospect sitting on the bench, who has SHOWN he can hit MLB pitching and potentially be top-10 material at the position, with power and OBP. The Giants CANNOT waste that, and his trade value will never equal his player value. The Giants do not have this luxury at First or Third - positions where they may need them in the next few years. (I love Belt, but he's becoming one of the guys who you rely on to be injured....unfortunately.)
DeleteAt the end of the day, the Giants need to assess what the GIANTS need, not what Buster Posey needs - and based on who Buster Posey is, I foresee him understanding that it's best for all involved (considering the massive 10 year contract), and accepting an eventual assignment to 3B or 1B, probably a year or two down the line.
Some might say it's unreasonable - and this season it is - but down the line there is really no avoiding it. Posey's body has shown itself incapable of holding up over 162+, and hence there will need to be a shift down the line as that same body begins to take on long-term wear.
(PS - Doc, a few less exclamation points after all your statements!!!! ?? Yeah, might make the whole discussion seem a little less one-sided and dictatorial.. I know how nobody likes a one-sided baseball discussion (*cough*...Fangraphs!...*cough*))
I agree Rainball about Posey fading down the stretch. I think Belt does present a problem because lets face it he only played 61 regular season games last year. I would almost say trade Belt and have Susac and Posey switch off at 1B and have Hector Sanchez be strictly a backup. I am sure Susac would be able to play 1B. That way Susac and Posey play everyday. If Belt cannot play another position it might be time to find him another home. Posey is too valuable to wear down. Last time I looked Posey was signed to a $167MM deal whereas Belt is still in arbitration. Which player's career is more important.
DeleteDo you guys ever think to, you know, look up a few stats before you make an assertion? Buster Posey faded down the stretch? Yeah, I guess hitting .354 in the second half and .393 in September is a pretty bad fade!
DeleteThe main reason why Buster Posey is not moving off catcher is he is the best damn catcher in baseball. That he does not want to move off catcher is a sideshow.
I was mainly referring to 2013 where he hit a wall in the second half. In 2014, they played him away from the plate more (2013 26 games of 1B and DH, 2014 37 games of 1B and DH) and you could see the results. I think in 2015 they should keep him away from the plate around 40 games. Especially since we have Susac and have a capable hitter behind home plate.
DeleteI expect Posey's use to be similar to last year. We really don't know why he "hit the wall" in 2013. His offensive struggles continued through the first half of 2014 then he caught fire, so it may not have been related to fatigue. He was getting into too many two strike counts. He hit much better when he got more aggressive early in the count.
DeleteIs it a possibility to move Susac to 3B? Is he athletic enough? I would love to see what his bat could do in the lineup on a consistent basis.
ReplyDeleteI've wondered that. If Susac is smart, he will ask for the chance. He is built like an Abrams tank, though.
DeleteJon Morosi is reporting "#SFGiants are currently in discussions with free agent outfielder Nick Markakis, source confirms earlier report by @JonHeymanCBS."
ReplyDeleteI have always liked Markakis but I don't know if this really solves anything for us. 3B and SP are more of a glaring need. Wonder how that will change our pursuit for 3B. Would we able to pay Markakis and Headley? I think if we sign Markakis any top tier pitcher such as Lester, Shields, etc. would be a stretch. I think we could always make a trade for a cost controlled 3B but who is available. We will have to wait and see how this all plays out.
Well, obviously Morosi was a little misinformed. Markakis goes to Braves for 4 years for $44MM.
Deleteamazing how despite winning 3 ws in 5 seasons, having one of the best orgs and fan bases in all the mlb, giants still cant get fa bats to come here
Deletebet giants matched that offer
bacci
Yes. We will have to overpay to get decent position players. However, if they come over in a trade they end up wanting to stay like Pagan and Pence. I don't mind Blanco being in LF. I just hope we come out of this with a decent SP and a 3B who can play defensively. With so much overpaying in the FA market I hope Sabean gets on the phone and tried to get cost controlled players to fill the holes.
DeleteI doubt the Giants went hard after another left handed OF. he would have been very similar to Blanco.
DeleteI hope the Giants didn't try hard for a so-so player in Markakis. If he is going elsewhere, I'm glad. He's about as good as Blanco statistically. He is ten times more expensive than Blanco.
DeleteWe should all be celebrating that Markakis went to the Braves. What are they thinking anyway? Nick Markakis is done!
DeleteWhat was Sabean thinking signing Scutaro for 3 years? He was done! Pagan seems pretty much done.
DeleteActually, Markakis and his low K rate will probably do just fine, play to the value of his contract with .270-290 average and steady "gold glove" D. And like most other free agents will probably play below value in last year of deal.
Where do you get the "gold glove D" from? You do realize that Markakis has been a fairly strongly negative defender for a long time, right?
DeletePagan did not seem done when he signed his contract and has actually performed very well when healthy. He may bounce back from the back surgery or he may not.
As for Scutaro, the Giants have established a track record of rewarding players who help them win a championship with contracts that are probably going to be bad going forward. That may be counter-intuitive to us, but it has worked for the Giants.
Also, I'm not sure how a couple of contracts that have now worked out as the Giants might have hoped has anything to do with evaluating the Markakis contract with the Braves.
Delete"gold glove" - check out his trophy case.
DeleteEverybody knows Gold Gloves don't mean squat. Check out his defensive metrics.
DeleteSlightly aside: Torii Hunter is a class act. Choosing to go back to Minnesota to end his career, when he could have gotten more money elsewhere. He cited wanting to help new manager Paul Molitar and play in front of the fans who supported him in his early years.
ReplyDeleteVery classy, and I'm sensing a coaching role in his future.
A class act? Do you mean like his vulgar response to a reporter who asked him about his very publicly stated views against gay marriage?
DeleteWas not aware of that...
DeleteI'm not sure someone was going to give him much more than $10.5 million.
DeleteI didn't see that part of the press conference on MLB Network. Maybe they cut it. They don't like to show any player in a negative light. Story is on yahoo though.
DocB thanks for saying it like it is. The corollaries to your truths are:
ReplyDelete1. Players and positions are NOT freely interchangeable. Difference between playing baseball and playing cards. Why Posey is not playing 3B, ever.
2. Starters and relievers are NOT freely interchangeable. Different physical requirements, different mentality, different pitch selection/stuff, different ego. Why Timmy is still a starter.
3. All relievers are NOT automatically closers. As DocB explains on Timmy above.
4. Replacing a player means replacing them both in the field and in the batting order. Blanco replaces Pagan in CF just fine, but he has largely failed at hitting leadoff. So replacing/backing up Pagan means also finding a leadoff hitter.
Thanks MS. I agree with all of those except #4 where I believe most, if not all of Blanco's struggles at leadoff are sample size driven.
DeleteDodgers in on Lester...
ReplyDeleteTruth #6 Lester will not pitch for Giants in 2015
ReplyDeleteLOL - but you'll probably see him a couple of times at AT&T in Dodger Blue.
DeleteM's sent Michael Saunders back to his home country (although he is a Victoria BC kid) for JA Happ from Toronto.
ReplyDeleteGood thread. I like the idea of Susac trying out the hot corner (Abrams tanks are deceptively fast...JP8 fuel and all).
Glad we "missed" on Markakis. Hope the Doyers dont get Lester.
Let's Go Giants!
NWGiantsFan DtF!!!