Monday, December 22, 2014

DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Giants Prospects

Time to unveil my 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects list.  There may be another trade or two coming down the pike that could affect the list, but I have a feeling most of the big deals are done.  Can't wait forever anyway.  This was a challenging list as there is no clear #1 in the system and  a very deep top tier without a lot of clear breaks between tiers.  There is an unusually large number of prospects with MLB experience and a strong draft class with several interesting HS draftees which makes for some interesting juggling at the extremes of the proximity vs ceiling spectrum.  As always, I really hope people don't get too hung up on the exact order.  Mine might be a bit different if I did it another day!  We will provide profiles of each of the prospects through the rest of the offseason and into spring training aiming to profile everybody by the start of the season.

1.  Tyler Beede, RHP
2.  Andrew Susac, C
3.  Kyle Crick, RHP
4.  Christian Arroyo, SS
5.  Mac Williamson, OF
6.  Mikey Edie, OF
7.  Keury Mella, RHP
8.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP
9.  Daniel Carbonell, OF
10. Matt Duffy, IF
11. Tyler Horan, OF
12. Luis Ysla, LHP
13. Ty Blach, LHP
14. Adalberto Mejia, LHP
15. Gustavo Cabrera, OF
16. Steven Okert, LHP
17. Hunter Strickland, RHP
18. Ray Black, RHP
19. Cody Hall, RHP
20.  Derek Law, RHP
21. Michael Santos, RHP
22. Johneshwy Fargas, OF
23. Skyler Ewing, 1B
24. Austin Slater, OF
25. Aramis Garcia, C
26. Joan Gregorio, RHP
27. Ehire Adrianza, SS
28. Ryder Jones, 3B
29. Chris Stratton, RHP
30. Dylan Davis, OF
31. Adam Duvall, 1B
32. Gary Brown, OF
33. Erik Cordier, RHP
34. Jesus Galindo, OF
35. Brian Ragira, 1B
36. Mitch Delfino, 3B
37. Sam Coonrod, RHP
38. Blake Miller, IF
39. Chuckie Jones, OF.
40. Stephen Johnson, RHP
41. Byron Murray, OF
42. Logan Webb, RHP
43. Stetson Woods, RHP
44. Jonah Arenado, 3B
45. Dylan Brooks, RHP
46. Kelby Tomlinson, IF
47. Matt Lujan, LHP
48. Ty Ross, C
49. Christian Jones, LHP
50. Matt Gage, LHP

Honorable Mention(in no particular order):  Jarrett Parker OF, Chris Dominguez OF/3B/1B/SS, Chris Heston RHP, Mike Kickham LHP, Jake Dunning RHP, Brett Bochy RHP, Austin Fleet RHP, Kelvin Marte LHP, Mario Lisson 3B, Devin Harris OF, Ricky Oropesa 1B/3B, Angel Villalona 1B, Jeff Arnold C, Phil McCormick LHP, Carlso Alvarado RHP,  Dan Slania RHP, Bryce Bandilla LHP, Elliott Blair OF, Ben Turner C, Brandon Bednar IF, Alberto Robles IF, Jared Deacon C, Joe Biagini RHP,  Pat Young RHP, Joe Kurrasch LHP, Tyler Rogers RHP, Tyler Mizenko RHP, Martin Agosta RHP, Nick Vander Tuig RHP, Rafael Rodriguez OF, Jeremy Sy IF, Ryan Jones 2B, Chase Johnson RHP, Steven Messner LHP, Carlos Diaz LHP, Robert Ramer RHP, Donald Snelton LHP, Conner Kaden RHP, Seth Harrison OF, Jason Forjet RHP, Ethan Miller RHP, Eury Sanchez RHP, Hector Mercedes SS, Chase Compton 1B, Richard Amion OF, Luis Lacen OF, Kevin Rivera 2B, Rayan Hernandez RHP, Rodolfo Martinez RHP, Kendry Melo RHP, Greg Brody RHP, Mason McVay LHP, Travious Relaford IF, Hunter Cole OF.

Dominican Dandies:  Kelvin Beltre SS, Manuel Geraldo SS, Mecky Coronado C/DH, Robinson Medrono OF, Deiyerbert Bolivar LHP, Prebito Reyes LHP, Victor Concepcion RHP, Jose Morel RHP.

60 comments:

  1. Hey, nice job! Looks like you stayed away from elevating relief prospect too high. Perhaps you went too far in the other direction though as guys like Strickland and Okert deserve more love - especially over some 17 year old that fans are jumping up and down over (yeah, maybe pump the brakes a little on Edie), and Tyler Horan as well -that's too high at this juncture. But, overall, nice job, doc.

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    1. Yeah, relievers are relievers. Learned my lesson on Hembree last year.

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  2. I am not going to talk about order because that could be argued about all day but I think Arroyo in the top 10 is a stretch for me. To struggle in Augusta like he did and get demoted to SK is a big red flag for me. I think I need to see another strong year before I think he is even in my top 15. My #1 would be Clayton Blackburn. I am excited for Beede and hope he gets his control down. This is going to be a very exciting year for the farm.

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    1. With you Rog. Blackburn is up next to Susac who should be #1. So what if the ceiling isn't sky high, he has the tools in his tool box to keep the ball in the yard, limit walks and strike enough hitters out.

      Pumping the brakes on Arroyo as well - along with Edie and Williamson coming off the TJ and not having seen what he does in AA.

      I find myself pretty happy with John Sickel's list.

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    2. I don't necessarily agree that S-K is a lower level of play than Augusta other than in name only. A lot of the players in the NWL are high round college draftees and many go straight to high A the following year.

      I like Blackburn, but he is still way too hittable and his ceiling is just not high enough. I am not convinced he's that much better than Chris Heston, although I hope that is not true. I'll get into the details in the profiles, but Beede has the best stuff over 3 pitches, has the college and draft pedigree. I think he has ace ceiling and could be a very fast mover.

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    3. I see we have a bit of irrational exuberance going on for Clayton Blacburn and a bit for Susac as well. Not that I don't like either prospect, but people seem to be developing fantasies about them.

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    4. Blackburn is my clear #1 but the prospects I am most excited about watching this year is Austin Slater and Daniel Carbonell. Slater burst onto the screen albeit a small sample size. Just looking at Carbonell's figure he looks like a superstar. Built like an NFL receiver. The media has downplayed his ability but I wish for good things to come. If he could end up being a "Ben Revere" or "Denard Span" type I would be very happy.

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    5. Blackburn? Really? I mean, I can kind of see an argument for Susac to be #1 but not Blackburn by a very long stretch.

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    6. Susac and Blackburn are in separate classes for me. I truly see Susac as a guy who will be an everyday catcher (health-providing) with the potential to make some all-star teams. Not an MVP candidate, but a guy who can produce a handful of .265-.285 seasons with 15-20 HR, maybe more depending on the park he plays in. Those AB's he had against David Price in Detroit looked more like a 5-year veteran than a green rookie. And his defense looked much better to me than it had been made out to be by scouting reports I'd read. He just looks like an all-around strong player to me at this point.

      Going by rankings alone, both you and I are still higher on Blackburn than most of the publications... I do think he'll be a solid back-end starter at some point in his career. How many years? Who knows, but he's got that potential. What worries me at this point is he got almost no love in the AFL this year. He didn't pitch much, but when he did, the reports weren't all that great. I don't know what to think at this point.

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    7. Thanks. It's not like ranking Susac #2 is burying him or anything, and yeah, I think I'm actually being generous with Blackburn.

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  3. Good looking list Doc. I have no problem with you being high on Edie and Horan. If you like a guy, there is absolutely no reason to hold back. I had Edie in my top 10 for quite a while, then decided I'd like to learn a little more about him until I go that high. He ended up around 15. I know you really like Horan, and other than starting his career at a lower level, he's at the exact same stage as Williamson for the moment... I should have ranked Horan higher I'm starting to think.

    Susac is the clear-cut #1 for me. I think there are more similarities between his game and Posey's than we ever knew. He just looked so smooth in his MLB time this year, both behind the plate and hitting. I really wish I could look into the future and see how the Giants will use him, but if he stays healthy, I really see him forcing their hand one way or another. Ultimately, I think he could be the piece that lands the Giants a strong young starting pitcher one day (as we know Posey is not moving positions any time soon).

    Beede, Crick and Mella are all very close for me. I have to admit I was very unmoved by Beede's performance in the CWS. I watched him pitch a few times, and I just didn't see top of the 1st round material. I know he does have that potential, but until the Giants help straighten him out, he's behind Crick and Mella for me... but I certainly recognize that he has the talent to be #1 overall in this system. I just have a slight hunch that Crick is going to start the season in AA again and have a big breakout...

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    1. Putting Susac at #2 was a real stretch for me. He's a backup catcher for now and will be until Posey decides it's time to move out from behind the plate.

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    2. To be fair DrB, I think most teams would have him competing for a starting spot this spring, and I think he would win that job for a lot of them. The Giants just happen to have an MVP behind the dish. If we're talking ability alone, I think Susac has a chance to be a very good catcher.

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    3. Agreed. I bet every big trade proposal probably has him in it. He may be a backup catcher to the Giants but I think a few clubs think he could be their starter. Very valuable in my opinion if we were ever to trade for a SP like Hamels or a bat at the trade deadline.

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    4. I agree with all of that. I just think Beede has a higher ceiling and is going to achieve it a lot faster than most people seem to think. It's not like raking Susac #2 is burying the guy.

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  4. Dr. B. You are really high on Beede to put him in front of Andy Susac. You trying to differentiate yourself from Stickles? LOL

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    1. Look, I like Susac too, but come on people! He's a back up catcher and will be for the foreseeable future. I see a lot of irrational exuberance for him and Blackburn going on.

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    2. Exuberance- yes, irrational - no. Susac is a hot commodity.

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    3. DrB, I don't look at Blackburn as a #1 or #2. I see him as a solid #3 or #4 guy. I am high on him because I think he is the closest to the big league club. Someone who can replace Hudson in 2016. Other pitchers such as Beede may have a higher ceiling but I usually rank the prospects on who is the closest to becoming a starting pitcher or starting positional player. Someone who is cost controlled and come immediately help the club. If I think the person is at best a trade chip or utility player then I do not rate them very high.

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    4. I would put the odds at least 50-50 that Beede beats Blackburn to the majors with a much higher ceiling to boot.

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    5. When the system is as thin at the upper levels as the Giants system is, it's easy to quibble over who the top dogs are. It's a system with depth, not elite prospects. Susac is probably the only Top 100 prospect in the system. Maybe Crick hangs around in the back 50. Blackburn on the fringes.

      As for Beede beating Blackburn to the majors?? Get real. Blackburn will likely make an appearance this year or next. While Beede is looking at A+ and AA respectively.

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    6. I will be surprised if Susac makes the Top 100. As for Beede vs Blackburn, I'm definitely all about keeping it real and I stand by my statement.

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  5. You obviously feel that Gustavo Cabrera is on his way back to the top and could break the Top 5 in 2016.

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    1. If I was ranking by ceiling along, Cabrera might be #1. Still a lot of concern about his health. I even thought about leaving him off entirely again, but am now cautiously hopeful after word that he played in the field in instructionals and reportedly has full sensation back in the hand.

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  6. Overall, the list seems to be favoring potential more than it did in previous years.

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    1. I've always favored ceiling over proximity. I guess Hembree was the exception last year and that was probably a mistake.

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    2. Ceiling is pretty important but I am more interested in adding cost controlled players that will stick on our MLB roster. I think we would all agree this time last year Joe Panik's ceiling was not all that high. However, he came up, played pretty decent and without him I don't think we win the world series. 2B was a huge whole after Brandon Hicks took a nose dive. Whether Blackburn is a front line starter or a #3, 4 or 5 doesn't really matter IMO. If he can manage to just hold an MLB spot on the rotation and play well then I think it is a success. If Beede can reach the MLB before Blackburn then that is even better.

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    3. Obviously when I mean "stick" on our roster I mean that the prospect performs well enough where we do not immediately think of replacing him. Mike Kickham definitely did not "stick" on our roster.

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  7. Great list, Doc.

    Obviously, everyone has their own White Whales and will fight for them to the end. And there is nothing wrong with that.

    But you put your list out there every year and you stand behind it. That is commendable, and this discussion is something I look forward to every year.

    These lists are really only good for one thing. Radars. And Doc is REALLY good at putting guys on radars earlier than they would be otherwise.

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    1. I like the list a lot. Could quibble on a few up or down a few spots, but nothing major.

      Doc, where do you think Kendry Flores would have fit in had he not been traded?

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    2. I had Flores penciled in at #21 so it probably would have been within 1 or 2 slots of that.

      Thanks, CSS. I see the main purpose of this list and discussion is to give readers and all of us a better idea of who the players are in the Giants minor league system and how/when we might see them helping out at the major league level in the future.

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    3. That sir, is a public service greatly appreciated by those of us among the uninitiated.

      Cheers!

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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    4. +1 hope you're right about Beede!

      Happy holidays!

      LG

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  8. DrB, which prospect are you most excited about this year? This does not necessarily have to be your #1. Maybe the prospect you expect to move real fast through the levels or one that will turn heads. Also, who is your sleeper prospect. One maybe you rated really low but think they have the ability to be a high prospect next year around this time.

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    1. Lots of exciting stuff to watch but I'll go with Mikey Edie and Gustavo Cabrera. If either of both of those kids can break out, man, that would be so great for the Giants organization!

      Sleeper? I'll go with Ben Turner, the catcher from SJ last year. Love his K/BB ratio. He could be very underrated.

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  9. I hope Crick and Blackburn/Blach will be ready to replace Lincecum and Huddy in 2016. I hope Beede will be ready to replace Peavy in 2017. Giants need to be aggressive with Beede. Send him to San Jose and AA in 2016. Don't know who will replace Pagan. The theme is though that you have prospects ready to replace players from ML roster. I hope Mac Williamson kills next yr and is ready for LF in 2016 at some point. Most excited to see what he will do. Nolan A. I think is the sleeper out of the farm. Hope he is getting pointers from his brother. Beede and Crick is pretty nice to have atop a prospect list. I think both will breakout next year. Power arms.

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  10. Remember the name Nolan Riggs, obviously not known yet on this blog, but good things to come!

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    1. Oh, I know about him. Hasn't shown much of anything yet, but we'll be watching the boxscores with our eagle eyes looking for signs that he might be a prospect.

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  11. That's an interesting list. It wouldn't be mine, but it's not so different that I'd argue about it. The biggest difference is that I would put Susac first since he's probably going to be in the majors in 2015 and get quite a few Posey-relief starts. No one else, save maybe Strickland, is likely to be on the opening day 25 man though I expect Blach, barring injury or regression, to get the call sooner-or-later in 2015.

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  12. Doc,

    I love the list. Prospects are about developing talent that can help the team. Susac is a great player, but his ability to help the big league team win is greatly hampered by Posey being behind the dish.

    Beede at #1 should come at no surprise. With the Giants brass ability to develop arms, I think his control issues should be worked out in short order. I think he's got the makeup to be a #2 starter.

    Beede, Crick, Susac, Blackburn and Arroyo would be my Top 5 in that order.

    Andy in San Diego

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  13. Anyone out there know reporting dates for spring training, major and minor?

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    1. Near mId February for pitchers and catchers. Not much time to this offseason which is just one of many reasons why it is crazy hard to repeat a WS championship.

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    2. First Cactus League Game is Giants vs A's on March 3.

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  14. I initially though Edie and Cabrera were a bit high, but when I think about them as HS guys with real stat-lines, it makes sense.
    And the Ewing/Slater/Garcia row looks weird, just because of draft status/positions. 6th round 1b, 8th round RD/CF, followed by a 2nd round catcher.
    Maybe you're basing it on their college stories, but guys like Jeremy Sy and Drew Biery, make me take Salem numbers with a grain of salt.

    As always, appreciate the work Doc! Gotta admit, I've started associating the new year with your daily prospect countdown.

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    1. First of all, Biery and Sy were not drafted in the first 10 rounds. Secondly, 23-25 is not all that high and is pretty much even steven. I think Ewing, Slater and Garcia are all very solid prospects. Both Ewing and Slater had K and BB numbers that suggest sustainability to their success and it's not like their pedigree is chopped liver. I mean Rice and Stanford both play in pretty tough neighborhoods as college baseball goes.

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    2. Plus, I would not write off Jeremy Sy just yet. He came pretty close to a 15-15 season last year.

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  15. First I applaud Doc for doing this and giving everybody a starting point and a frame of reference to discuss the prospects. Better yet, it is such a great service to inform those of us that aren't as enlightened about all the kids on the farm. OTOH, the specific order on anybody's list mean's little and unfortunately is almost impossible to NOT get carried away and question the orders of other's OPINIONS. oh wel...

    The only place where, in general, I have an opinion different enough from Doc's to mention is with OKERT. I watched this kid in Richmond several times, just out of the CAL league, and he was dynamite. The stuff..The gas..The presence The mental toughness...I know he's a reliever but I think this kid has it...I felt the same way as I did when I was watching BRIAN WILSON back in Hagerstown..and was championing him..Just a feeling...I'd have him in the top 10 but know why others wouldn't...

    Since I'm a more results over tools/potential I also had SUSAC as number 1 based on what I saw him do in the minors and SF...CRICK has all the potential but his wildness and inconsistency scare the crap out of me.....And I've Always been a fan of BLACKBURN...when he keeps the ball down he's really hard to beat.....has the full arsenal and the makeup just not the high octane..Anywhere 3-10 is fine by me..

    SteveVA

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    1. I like Okert a lot. I see him as the heir apparent to Jeremy Affeldt and we all know how important Affeldt has been to the Giants incredible run of success.

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  16. If you were to create a mythical Giants 25-man roster from your rankings , you would get the following:
    1B- Skler Ewing
    2B- Matt Duffy
    3B - Ryder Jones
    SS - Christian Arroyo
    LF - Mac Williamson
    CF - Daniel Carbonell
    RF - Mikey Edie
    C - Andy Susac
    SP - Tyler Beede
    SP - Kyle Crick
    SP - Keury Mella
    SP - Clayton Blackburn
    SP - Luis Ysla
    RP - Steve Okert
    RP - Hunter Strickland
    RP - Roy Black
    RP - Cody Hall
    RP - Derek Law
    RP - Eric Cordier
    RP - Ty Blach ( long reliever and the next in-line starting pitcher)

    Bench: Aramis Garcia, Ehire Adriana, Adam Duvall Tyler Horan and Gustavo Cabrera

    Decent group, but wonder how many of these players will actually make it up to the Giants.

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    1. I think it looks pretty good. You have some power from both sides of the plate, you have some speed, you have some grittiness. You got some premium arms both in the rotation and the bullpen. I like it!

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    2. Hot surprised you like it. It's based on your assessment. LOL

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  17. Slightly off topic, but I felt it was worth pointing out, since he was a prospect who probably would not have ranked too high on anyone's list initially. Check out http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/sergio-romo-on-re-signing-with-giants.html. Romo was a late round draft pick (#28 in 2005) and not a heralded prospect but he certainly beat the odds and has made a great career for himself. He also seems to really have his head on straight and his heart in the right place, He does a lot of behind the scenes service at local public schools, spearheading programs that encourage students to excel and be role models, and had he left the Giants there would have been a big void, not only in the bullpen and clubhouse, but also in the San Francisco community. I am glad he will be back, not only as a Giants fan, but also as a SF native and a parent of public school students.

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    1. I don't know if I ever ranked Sergio Romo in the top 10 or even 20, but I clearly remember when he was a prospect. He put up insane K/BB's at every stop. Everybody said the numbers would not hold up at higher levels because he did not have great "stuff." Well guess what? There is more to "stuff" than just velocity! That slider was all the "stuff" he needed. What a great pitch! It's Sergio's gift and he certainly has made the most of it.

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  18. One player I'm trying to find further info on is Jean Angomas. I'm really fascinated by him. Hope he comes stateside for rookie ball. Not much in the way of scouting reports or video or other info out there. Any detailed scouting info/resources/links would be greatly appreciated!

    I'm happy to see Stephen Johnson and Matt Gage make your top-50. I like those two. And Conner Kaden gets an HM, yeah! I think his K/9 rate in 2015 will be goooooood (10+) and K/BB rate will be solid (3.25 or better). Cheers.

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  19. Do you think Mikey Edie , your # 6 prospect,will be brought to the states next season even though he is only 17. Same queestion with regard to Gustavo Cabrera.

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    1. We know Cabrera was in Arizona for instructional league and that usually means they will be playing in the states the following season. I don't see why Edie would not be coming to Arizona too, but the Giants often cross me up on assignment prognostication.

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  20. I think both guys eed to be pushed along and not pampered. Would like to see both in Arizona next year.

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