Mac Williamson, OF. DOB: 7/15/1990. 6'4", 235 lbs. B-R, T-R.
2012 SS: .342/.392/.596, 7 HR, 4.8 BB%, 15.2 K%, 125 PA
2013 High A: .292/.375/.504, 31 2B, 25 HR, 10 SB, 8.5 BB%, 22.1 K%, 597 PA.
2014 High A: .318/.420/.506, 3 HR, 6 SB, 13.0 BB%, 14.0 K%, 100 PA.
Mac Williamson is probably the premier power hitting prospect in the Giants minor league system right now. He's a big dude, but with a lean, athletic looking build that actually still has some room to fill out. He has some speed to steal a few bases and cover a corner OF position. He also has an absolute rocket for an arm. Well, at least he did before undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of April, 2014, which cut short his 2014 season. It's bit hard to get a read on him as a hitter, except for the obvious power as his BB and K rates have been all over the place in limited sample sizes. I'm thinking his 2013 numbers are probably pretty close to his true rates. Those are manageable.
He should have played last year with AA Richmond, but was sent to SJ to start the season because of the arm injury which he initially tried to rehab. He was limited to DH duties and the EL does not use a DH in the home parks of NL affiliates. Hitting back in the Cal League after tying a record(I think) for HR's there in 2013 was obviously not much of a challenge.
The key for Mac in 2015 is how soon the arm will be ready to make throws from the OF. If he has to DH to start the season, he could be back in SJ which would not be good for his development as a hitter, which already suffered a 1 year setback. At age 24, turning 25 mid-season, he is not getting any younger, but power hitters often develop later anyway.
I've seen him play in person a few times. As you would expect from a guy his size, the swing looks like it could be a bit long and he seemed to get tied up on inside pitches a bit. Again, not surprising. He strikes me as being like a RH Brandon Belt, but not as giraffy, which is a good thing.
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It is rare for us to have a prospect in our system who could possibly hit 20-30HR. It is even more rare for that prospect to hit for average. I am praying Mac is the real deal and not another John Bowker. They will take it slow with him but I would not be surprised by year end to see him in AAA if he picks up where he left off. I can see him tearing up the PCL like a Joc Pederson. I wish him the best and am excited to see his lines everyday.
ReplyDeleteBowker had a very odd career trajectory. He ran hot and cold. I think what finally did him in as a major leaguer was poor defense, even by LF standards.
DeleteDr B What cut Bowker's career short,was his inability to hit or play defense. Hahaha
DeleteHis hitting wasn't THAT bad. If he could play D, I think he might have been given more rope.
DeleteDrB, what kind of ceiling do you think Mac has? I am rooting like heck for Mac, but I have to admit the age factor does scare me a bit here. He'll be 25 by mid-season, and we know that players usually peak in that 26-29 range. If he isn't a big leaguer by his 26th birthday... not that far away... do we still consider him a top prospect in the organization?
ReplyDeleteI would say a .250-.270 BA with 25-30 HR's with acceptable corner OF defense. I think a huge key here is if he can play all or most of the 2015 season at AA and hit there. That's the hump he has to get over.
DeleteCC,
DeleteI wouldn't put so much emphasis on his age. He is still relatively young and players these days are able to contribute well into their 30s. Pence is 31 and I think he has a good 3-4 years of decent play left. So, if Mac can make it to the big league roster at 26 or 27 and be an everyday player, he could potentially give us at least 4-5 years of cost controlled play. I think in FA 4-5 years of decent play is about all you can ask on a 6-7 year contract. The last few years are always suspect.
If he comes up at 26, as a solid player, he could have anywhere from 6 to 10 years of quality, productive play if he keeps in shape and doesn't get hurt. And considering that you don't keep players forever thanks to FA, I could see his 'best years' being in a Giants uniform.
DeleteAccording to Baseball Reference, in roughly 700PA in A+ he has 28 HR, 64 BB, 146 SO and hit .296 with an OPS of 886. Nothing to be ashamed of. Also, he was purported to have issues with breaking balls, but an adjustment to his approach in 2013 is supposed to have cut down his vulnerability to them.
ReplyDeleteEven though I like him (more than any other Giants OF candidate) I'm surprised at you giving him the #5 ranking. Not that I necessarily disagree. I find many people don't like to veer too far from the 'established line' and I've never seen him Top-10 and some Top-20 lists don't even mention him. So when someone does, and in dramatic fashion, I notice it.
But, as they say, there's no disputing taste. And I'm not disputing your ranking as I think he is the best OF prospect on the club and I think he may end up being the power-hitting RF we need in the near future.
Well, MCC's Community Prospect Rankings has Mac at #7 which isn't so far off from where I have him.
Deletethey're a bunch of Debbie Downers over there. John Sickels also has him at #7 with Arroyo one slot ahead. He's higher on Mella than you are, doc.
DeleteWell, Mella is coming up soon. Again, I would caution against making too much of the exact order here. I don't think it matters one bit whether a prospect is #5 or #7 or #10 in the organization. The list is just a mechanism for becoming more familiar with who might be the Giants players of the future.
DeleteLast year, I had Joe Panik at #13, I think and most other sites had him lower, some much lower. Look where he is now!
yeah, at this point, they're B to B- prospects and it's just quibbling. C+'s to follow soon.
DeleteI don't believe in labeling prospects with grades which also do not mean a whole lot. Again, I would point to Panik who was no more than a C+ on the sites that do such rankings last year and look what he did with it.
DeleteGood pick here, doc. Got to love the ceiling this guy offers. He's the one who could break "the curse" that haunts Giants outfield prospects. Huge year though, hope he can the pass the next test.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to think of possible best case scenario outcomes for Mac. Maybe wishful thinking but perhaps he could turn out to be a Matt Holliday type, with less offense but better defense.
ReplyDeleteOr the love child of Nate Schierholtz and Matt Holliday???
DeleteHow about a better fielding version of Michael Morse? Hopefully healthier too! Maybe Pat "The Bat" Burrell aka The Machine?
DeleteSo what's the trade value of Mac Williamson? Ultimately, that's what these prospect lists reflect, how other orgs might prioritize players they are interested in (which is why I'd think players like Blackburn and Mella would come ahead of some of these recent names).
ReplyDeleteComing off injury makes it tough as it would be a low point.
I have no idea what Mac Williamson's trade value is and I don't care. I don't agree that the purpose of these lists is to assess trade value.
DeleteAnd if you are going to get picky with words, no, this list does not REFLECT what I think a prospects trade value is. If I was making a list of Giants prospects based on current trade value, it would look a lot different. Most teams are looking for present help at the MLB level in trades except for a rapidly shrinking number of teams who choose to embark and a long term rebuild.
DeleteAgain, let's please not get too hung up in exact order here and take this as a chance to learn more about who might be helping the Giants to another championship in 1, 3 and 5 years from now. How much trade value did Joe Panik have a year ago? How much does he have now? Rankings, grades and trade value are not what's important here. The ranking is a format to create interest and provide a platform for discussing prospects in an organized way.
How one organization views a prospect can differ greatly from how another organization views that same player. That's why we sometimes see some really headscratcher trades involving prospects. Sometimes those trades turn out to be steals, but oftentimes they remain headscratchers. An organization should only make a prospect list based on how it sees its own players, and in real life that list would be kept private within the team's front office. There is no way a list could reflect a prospect's trade value because no one can know for sure what another organization is thinking or wanting. Dr. B's list and any list like it is made from the perspective of a fan, and for all we know might be very different from how the Giants see their own prospects, let alone how any other organization might see them. Bottom line is that the prospect list is a fun exercise that engages us Giants fans and keeps us hopeful for the future of our team. Thanks again, Dr. B, for putting in the time and effort to post the list!
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