Armchair GM: My 2015 San Francisco Giants

Someone requested in the comments after the last post that I do an Armchair GM post on building the 2015 Giants.   Of course, we have all been giving this a lot of thought, but in bits and pieces.  After giving it a little more thought, I decided that it really wasn't as daunting as it seemed when first proposed.  This is going to be be what I would do if I were the Giants GM as opposed to what I think Brian Sabean will do.  I will, however, constrain myself to the same basic parameters that Sabes has to take into account, so don't expect anything spectacular here.

I am going to assume that the luxury tax threshold of $189 M is the absolute maximum ownership will allow.  I also want to maintain a buffer below that to maintain payroll flexibility for possible midseason trades.  I will assume that the low end of acceptable payroll range is a 10% increase. The Giants payroll last year was $149 M.  That would put 2015 payroll at $165 M.  I will also assume there is a some reasonable leeway in the budget of an additional $10 M up to $175 M which would leave a $14 M buffer to the luxury tax.  So I will work with a payroll budget of $165-175 M.  According to Cot's Contracts website, the Giants are already committed to $127.28 in salary for 2015 with a projected additional $14.5 M in salary for arbitration eligible players for a total of $141.78 M.  We'll round it to $142 M just for convenience and because these numbers are not that precise. This leaves a range of available salary of $23-33 M.

If possible, I want to hang onto the 2015 first round draft pick so will avoid free agents who have received Qualifying Offers from their 2014 teams.  The one exception I might make would be to sign Max Scherzer who is an extraordinary talent, but signing him would use up most or all of the available payroll budet without a special dispensation from ownership.  I am going to assume this is not going to happen for all practical purposes.

I am willing to trade any of prospects currently in the farm system.  On the other hand, I don't have much in the way of what most teams are looking for in a trade, MLB ready starting pitching.  So trades are going to be difficult to fit into a realistic scenario.

I think we all know what areas could be upgraded.  3B is the most glaring hole to fill, but Starting Pitching is shaky with one member coming off elbow surgery, another coming off a season in which he was basically benched coming down the stretch and into the playoffs and another who is probably better suited to a swingman role.  A 4'th, Tim Hudson will be 40 yo and has already said 2015 will likely be his last season.  Relief pitching currently has 3 open slots.  The left field situation is not desperate, but an upgrade would be welcome if it an be found and better OF depth would also be desirable.

The top 3B available on the FA market is Chase Headley.  Headley did not receive a QO from the Yankees, so they must think he will get less than $15.3 M AAV.  The Yankees are also reportedly not willing to go beyond 3 years in a contract offer.  Headley is a switch-hitter and a superior defender.  He is entering his age 31 season.  His numbers at the plate the last 2 seasons have been disappointing in light of he 31 HR season of 2012 which he accomplished playing his home games in Petco Park.  His second half numbers last year were strong which may have been due to playing most of his game in Yankee Stadium, but it also may be due to changing the grip on his bat back to his 2012 grip(he had changed it due to an injury).  Even without a projected improvement in his offensive output he should be good for fWAR's of 3.5-4.0.  A good offensive season might boost that up into the 5.0-6.0 range.  I would offer Headley 4 years/$52 M.  Possibly sweeten the deal with an upfront bonus and add a 5'th option year, possibly a vesting option.  Of course, if it turns out the Yankees really want him and start jacking up their offers, then I would have to walk away and look elsewhere.  Fallback options would be to try to work a trade with Boston for Garin Cecchini or kick the tires on Gordon Beckham if he is non-tendered today by the Angels.  I would also look into signing Jed Lowrie and moving him to 3B.

So, I have spend $13 M of my available payroll on Headley.  I am going to turn to starting pitching next.  The Giants are making some noise on Jon Lester, although I am not sure how serious they are.  That meeting they reportedly had with him yesterday?  Turns out it was Bruce Bochy paying a visit to his home in Atlanta.  Unless Bruce Bochy has suddenly become the Assistant GM, I am going to assume this was nothing more than a tire kick and signing Jon Lester is a pipe dream.

IMO, the best FA pitcher on the market who is not named Jon Lester and who does not come with a QO attached, is Jason Hammel.  His ERA's have not been that exciting, but he has maintained a fairly consistent K/9 in the 8's and BB/9 below 3. He has good stuff.  Pitching in AT&T Park and working with Rags can only help him.  He is also entering his age 31 season which is much younger than most FA SP's.  MLBTR's projected cost for him is 3 years/$30 M.  To me, that looks like a very reasonable price and possibly a bargain.

Signing Hammel allows me to bump Yusmeiro Petit back to the swingman role and reduces the number of bullpen openings to 2.  I believe those can be filled either internally or out of a pool of spring training invitees on minor league deals.  That leaves just LF.

Gregor Blanco has average 2.4 fWAR over the last 3 seasons so I am not desperate here.  On the other hand, an upgrade that would allow Blanco to be the 4'th OF and insurance against another Angel Pagan injury would be desirable.  The OF pickings are very slim and I am down to less than $10 M to work with.  I am not going to go into every possible option here, but rest assured, the pickings in the price range are slim indeed.   After much consideration, it really came down to 2 options:  1.  Bring back Michael Morse on the same deal he got last year, $1 year/$7+ M.  2.  Alejandro De Aza is expected to be non-tendered by the Orioles today.  De Aza is a very similar players to Gregor Blanco in that he is left-handed, has some speed and occasional power.  He is an average defender in CF but could probably be a plus defender in LF.  His big plus over Morse is he is not a negative on defense and he adds versatility in that he can play any of the 3 OF positions.  On the other hand, he seems like a  bit of a redundancy to Blanco, not adding any other dimension.  It would be nice to have both, but I can probably only afford 1.  After some deliberation, I am going to go with the RH masher bat of Morse and again, try to find ways to mitigate the bad D in LF.  Very close call.

My offseason work is now done except for some dumpster dives to invite to spring training on minor league deals, mostly bullpen arms.  The 2015 payroll is up to $172 M which I think ownership can live with and I still have a little room for midseason upgrades via trade.  Here is the projected Opening Day Roster:

C  Buster Posey
1B Brandon Belt
2B  Joe Panik
3B  Chase Headley
SS  Brandon Crawford
RF  Hunter Pence
CF  Angel Pagan
LF  Michael Morse/Gregor Blanco
SP  Madison Bumgarner
SP  Matt Cain
SP  Jason Hammel
SP  Tim Hudson
SP  Tim Lincecum
Closer  Santiago Casilla
RP  Yusmeiro Petit
RP  Jeremy Affeldt
RP  Javier Lopez
RP  Jean Machi
2 RP  TBD  Strickland?  Kontos?  Cordier?  Okert?  Hall?  Dumpster Dive?
Bench:
Andrew Susac, C
Joaquin Arias, IF
Ehire Adrianza IF
TBD Travis Ishikawa?  Duffy?  Perez?  Dumpster Dive?

Hope a SP and OF or two will step up from the minors and be available midseason.  If not, I might have to depend on a midseason trade or two to fill holes that arise.