Armchair GM Part Deux: Where Do the Giants Go From Here?

Whether you are disappointed in the failure of the Giants to do anything at the just completed Winter Meetings or relieved that they did not, you have to be wondering where they go from here.  While the Giants were sitting around waiting for Jon Lester, other teams were busy making moves and setting others up.  The free agent market is noticeably smaller than it was 5 days ago.  The trade market probably is to, but the trade market is less transparent than the FA market.  The current conventional wisdom is that the Giants are now trying to sign James Shields.

I really like James Shields, but he is 33 years old and reportedly asking for a 5 year contract.  That would take him through his age 37 season.  He is also tied through a Qualifying Offer from the Royals to the loss of a first round draft pick.  Unless his asking price has dropped, and there is no reason to believe it has, the Giants need to just say no and look elsewhere.

So, where else should they be looking?  Let's pull up the old armchair and put ourselves in Brian Sabean's seat again.  What would we do in this situation.  Again, the rules ground rules:  1. Buster Posey is staying at catcher.  2.  Brandon Belt is staying at first base.  3.  Brandon Crawford is staying at SS.  4. Tim Lincecum is not going to be the closer.  5.  The Giants are not going to go past the Luxury Tax threshold for 2015 payroll.

The linchpin of my first Armchair GM plan, Chase Headley, is still out there.   Sabes may have burned his bridges with Headley by proclaiming that the Giants are not necessarily "head over heals" for him, and that there are other options available.  Well, there may be other options available out there, but you have to squint really hard to see them.  There certainly are no other viable FA options available unless you are planning to move somebody to a new position.  A new name popped up yesterday, Asdrubal Cabrera, but Bobby Evans quickly tamped that down saying that ACab prefers to play up the middle and there is not a fit right now.  Jed Lowrie has said he is willing to move off SS.  Gordon Beckham is available and could probably play the position.  There are still some fairly farfetched trade ideas floating around for David Freeze, one of about 3 guys Pablo Sandoval is now blocking in Boston, maybe a Cody Asche as part of a Cole Hamels trade?  There was mention of signing ACab to play 2B with Joe Panik moving to 3B, but hellzbellz, if Panik can play 3B, I would much rather give Matt Duffy! the 2B job and run with it!
 Unless the Giants are serious about really going large on Max Scherzer or think they are really close to a trade for Cole Hamels, they need to get past their ace pitcher obsession and recognize that anything less than Pablo money is a good deal for Headley.  5 years/$75 M?  Get it done, Sabes!  I mean, if you are going to spend $75 M over 5 years, who is a better bet?  A 34 year old pitcher or a 31 year old third baseman?  Yeah, Headley has his well documented warts, but Shields and Pablo don't?  Headley has put up a higher fWAR the last two seasons than Pablo and his peak fWAR was significantly higher too.

Pitching is the next priority.  My 3 mid-level targets, Jason Hammel, Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy are all off the board now.  Hammel's contract, in particular, looks like a nice one for the Cubs.  The Giants currently do have 5 starters penciled into the rotation:  Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Petit and Lincecum.  Adding another starter would probably push Petit back to long relief/6'th starter and given this bunch, there is a good chance he would be back in the rotation by season's end.  Are there any other cost effective deals to be had out there?

Edinson Volquez is still out there.  He's had his ups and downs but is still just 31 years old and still throws 93 MPH. He also is a strong GB pitcher who would fit nicely with the superior IF defense the Giants would have with Chase Headley at 3B.   MLBTR thinks his price is about 2 years/$18 M.  He would probably jump at a 3 year deal.  A contract in that range is not going to cripple the Giants even if it completely busts.  It's a risk worth taking.

Aaron Harang is another pitcher who has been up and down seemingly forever.  He's 37 years old but might be available on a 1 year deal, 2 at the most.  He's more of a flyball pitcher, but AT&T Park is also friendly to flyball pitchers and the Giants have good OF defense. Again, a decent risk.

I've always liked Kyle Kendrick.  Nothing fancy here but he is a reliable innings eater who has kept his head above water pitching in a bandbox.  I think he would do well pitching in a Giants uniform and he would not be expensive.

Moving on the the OF, I know it's not a popular idea, but what OF out there is going to outperform Gregor Blanco?  The Giants already have brought in Justin Maxwell to compete for a platoon/4th OF role and challenge for a starting job.  Ideally, you want a bigger RH bat, but the market is very thin.  Alex Rios is still out there and would probably take a 1 year contract to try to rebuild his value coming off a thumb injury that destroyed his second half last year.  On the other hand, Rios D is slipping badly so what does he really give you that Michael Morse does not.  My pick in the first Armchair GM post was Michael Morse on another 1 year deal and I'm still going with that until he gets a multi-year deal form some AL club.

This fills the Giants immediate needs and leaves some room to add at the trade deadline.  There may be some kids who could help out by midseason too.  The probability is that 2015 will be another down year in the odd-even cycle anyway.  Don't paint yourself into a future corner with something that is not going to change that this year anyway.

Where would you take the Giants now if you were the GM?  Remember, keep it real!