The Winter Meetings got off to a strong start today as Billy Beane continued the dismantle the A's of the past 3 seasons. This time, he shipped 1B/OF Brandon Moss to the Cleveland Indians for 2B prospect Joe Wendle. Moss combined with Josh Donaldson to form potent L-R, 1-2 HR punch in the middle of the A's lineup. Moss' power numbers slipped a bit last year and he underwent surgery on his hip at the end of the season. Wendle put up some decent offensive numbers in AA last year, but was not one of BA's top 10 prospects for Cleveland. mlb.com had him at #9. Pretty tough to see how Billy replaces the power Moss and Donaldson provided in the short term. I just don't see how you can view this as anything but a selloff of short term assets for a long term rebuild.
The Cubs signed RHP Jason Hammel to a 2 year/$20 M contract. The contract includes a 3'rd year option for another $10 M with a $2 M buyout. Hammel has had his ups and downs but he is coming off a strong season with these same Cubs and the A's to whom he was traded in the Samardzija deadline deal. This a really solid signing by the Cubs and could end up being one of the best FA signings of the offseason. Well, there goes my Armchair GM plan. I happen to think Hammel would have looked good in a Giants uniform in 2015.
It does sound like the Giants are in the thick of the Jon Lester negotiations. They reportedly met with Lester's agent last night. The delegation that visited Lester at his home in Georgia included Buster Posey. Lester was reportedly particularly impressed by Bruce Bochy. Decision is supposed to come not earlier than tonight and not later than tomorrow night. I'll say 7 years/$150 M plus the attraction of playing for a great organization that has their stuff together gets it done. Not sure how I feel about that. It's exciting for the short term but scary as heck for the long term.
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Tough thing is if the Giants farm had produced another frontline starter we wouldn't be talking Scarey Lester. Shows how important the starting pitching pipeline is. $150M/7, that's important.
ReplyDeleteMakes me think that every 1st round/Supp pick should be reserved for starting pitching - except Panik (who maybe could have been nabbed later). Invest in the farm, it's way cheaper than $150M.
The Giants farm system has been as productive as any in baseball since 2006. You can go back even farther than that if you count Matt Cain who was drafted in 2002. Anyone pointing fingers at the Giants drafting and developing prospects is simply barking up the wrong tree. Any championship team has to supplement its homegrown core with trades and FA signings.
DeleteWe still might be chasing Lester. Right now we have MadBum and Cain. Even if we have +1 (or even +2), we still still need one more. I think Lester also gives us insuranc v. Cain. If anything, signing Lester makes it more likely we promote from within after the fact. I think Blackburn and Crick could round out nicely, and knows what happens with Beede. We have the dominos playing right on pitching (starting and pen).
DeleteI think Sabean agrees with you. He has said it's their responsibility to produce a frontline starter.
ReplyDeleteStratton, Beede, Crick...
If we can produce one every 5 years, we should see one in 2015 (that stretch that produced Sanchez, Licecum and Bumgarner was very exceptional and an excellent job), as, I believe, Madison arrived in 2010.
If we sign Lester then we might fill 3B with someone cheaper like Callapso, Lowrie. We might just stand pat with Blanco in LF. I think we just need to stay competitive and then we can make a trade near the deadline like we usually do to get the missing puzzle piece. (Ross, Scutaro, Pence in years past). I am cautiously optimistic we will sign Lester. Crossing fingers.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling Sabean is going big this off-season. I can see a scenario with both Headley and Lester as long as Headley doesn't get too greedy. Question though, if we do get Lester for $150 million for 6 years, how many WS do we have to win to make it worth it? There is some schools of thought that Zito's performance in 2012 almost made his crappy contract worth it. Realistically what do the Giants have to do to make Lester's contract worth it?
ReplyDeleteAlthough we have made winning the World Series over the last 5 years look easy, it is so incredibly hard. I don't think his contract would necessarily be a failure even if we didn't win any over the life of the contract. Making the playoffs on the other hand IMO would be the deciding factor. I think if we made the playoffs 3-4 times in 7 years I think it is worth it. Just getting in gives you the chance. Graduating 1-2 players a year from the farm is another key. Trading your top propects and having to rely on free agency can really harm the team. We are fortunate to have a team with one of the most homegrown players along with the Royals and Cardinals. I think we are in good shape with our core locked up for several years and we keep filling guys like Panik, Belt, Crawford, etc on a yearly basis.
DeleteAgreed. I don't like putting litmus tests on trades, FA signings and draft picks. Times and situations change. When Barry Zito signed his contract, the Giants had have won a WS in SF. If the fans knew that the signing would guarantee 6 terrible years and 1 championship, most would have been on board. Well, he contributed to to 2 championships. We'll never know if another player or players who Zito's salary could have been reallocated to would have produced more, but it is doubtful.
DeleteNow, after winning 3 WS in 5 seasons, winning just one over the next 7 year might not seem so good to those same fans who were ready to give anything to win just one before they died before 2010, but Roger is right. Winning just one WS championship is crazy hard. Winning 3 is pretty darn unbelievable!
Exactly. Giants fans are spoiled as of late. There will be years ahead where we won't make the playoffs or maybe get bounced in the first round. But that shouldn't be the deciding factor of the season. I believe sometimes to go forward you may need to take a couple steps back. What if we did not make the playoffs in 2015 but Clayton Blackburn secured a role in the rotation and Stephen Okert became Casilla's setup man. Maybe Mac Williamson lights up AA and AAA and gets a callup in September. I would still think that was a very successful season. Because graduating cost controlled players makes the future easier to manage having more flexibility.
DeleteLester @ 7/150 is both scary and better bet than Zito. (Who, of course, is available at a bit of discount for 2015!)
ReplyDeleteYep, the timing and deal of the Hammel signing is good for the Cubbies. Everyone waits for the big chips to fall before going after the little ones. Grabbing a little one before demand heats up is not a bad move IMO.
Anyway, this goes back to Wheeler, the last of recent top 10 picks. Pressure would be significantly reduced with him in the fold. And while TINSTAAPP did apply in 2011 as now, it sure applies less to top ten picks, than it does to those arms that come later in the draft.
(And seeing video of Beede, the guy does have real and true control issues. Giants have their work cut out on him.)
Wheeler is water under the bridge. Giants have won 2 championships since he was traded. If they had fallen short this year we might well be grinding out teeth about losing Escobar and Hembree by this time next year or sooner. A lot of people thought the Giants had no chance at the time the Peavy trade was made too. Not every trade works out the way you want it to.
DeleteOh, and I saw the same video on Beede. Not worried. He's going to be fine and will be a fast mover in the system.
DeleteNot every pitcher magically loses their velocity like Zito. Lester strikes me as a Hudson type who could live in the 80s and still be successful because he has such strong control of a vast off speed arsenal. Your buying 3-4 years of his final good years and hoping like heck he can produce something on that back 3-4.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Zito's peripheral stats were in full decline but the time the Giants signed him. Lester has shown no signs of that yet. It's a decent risk. If you are going to go all in for a pitcher, Lester is one of two guys to do it with this year, the other being Scherzer.
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