The Hot Stove is heating up as we approach the Winter Meetings next week. We have had 4 significant deals go down this week.
The Mariners signed FA Nelson Cruz to a 4 year/$58 M contract. Cruz had a huge season last year for Baltimore, hitting 40 HR's. He is a strongly negative fielder by UZR criteria which saps his fWAR score. He is also entering his age 34 season(he will turn 35 on 7/1/2015). The Mariners desperately wanted a RH bat to balance their lineup and they got one for a reasonable price considering his 2014 production. The Mariners paid for approximately 2.5 fWAR per season of the contract.
The Minnesota Twins signed OF Torii Hunter to a 1 year/$10.5 M contract. Hunter is 39 yo. He put up a solid offensive season last year for Detroit, but has become a big liability on defense. This is likely a farewell contract for Hunter who started his career in Minnesota. Hunter has become a bit of a lightning rod for his outspoken comments against gay marriage and got into it with a reporter over it. He probably would not have been a good fit in San Francisco.
The Mariners traded OF Michael Saunders to the Toronto Blue Jays for LHP JA Happ. This trade does not make much baseball sense for the Mariners but Mariners management had publicly pointed the finger at Saunders conditioning as the cause of his injury proneness and Saunder had publicly responded. This trade, like the Josh Donaldson trade, was probably driven by personality issues. The Blue Jays are either taking advantage of two golden opportunities or are going to have one heckuvan interesting clubhouse next season.
Nick Markakis signed with the Braves for 4 years/$44 M. Markakis actually had a pretty good season last year with Baltimore, mostly driven by his first positive defensive metric in about 10 years, which makes it all a bit shaky. 1 season of Jason Heyward than 4 of Nick Markakis, but at least the Braves got a pretty good pitcher back for Heyward. Markakis just turned 31 so he is relatively young, but his 2.5 fWAR in 2014 was the highest since he put up an astonishing 6.1 in 2008.
Meanwhile, the Giants pursuit of Jon Lester seems to have cooled off a bit. Now the Dodgers are rumored to be pursuing him. I say just go sign Chase Headley and Jason Hammel and be done with the offseason! At this rate the Giants are going to spend their offseason chasing white whales and end up losing out on the players they could have signed.
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Re: Lester
ReplyDeleteI agree. The Giants need to move on. He's only going to get more expensive and the Giants still have holes they need to fill.
Headley plus one of McCarthy, Hammel, or Masterson seems like a good idea. Those movie would also allow the Giants to pursue an additional OF, too. All combined, that would probably give the Giants more value than Lester alone.
The Giants need either a Lester or a Lester type. The biggest hole they have is in their starting rotation and guys like McCarthy, Hammels, etc are somewhat of a question mark themselves. Anyone who watched the Giants limp out of the WS with their pitching saw that we need another ace type guy. Heck, the Dodgers are threatening to add Lester and they already have Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu! If we don't get a top tier pitcher by the beginning of next year, we are going to have a long road to hoe, regardless of our third baseman and left fielder.
ReplyDeleteI am surprised they are not going after Sherzer....as well (not instead of).
DeleteKershaw, Sherzer, Greinke, Lester and Ryu.
They may still need one more ace, in case of injury...gotta have back up plans.
I'd be great with a Lester signing, but the Giants are not going to get him if it becomes a drawn out bidding war, which is where it appears to be headed. With a guy like Lester, I think you have to go in, make your pitch that the San Francisco Giants are a special organization that treats their players right and knows how to win championships. Then you ask him what number and years he is looking for. If he gives you one, you say "you got it", but the offer is only good until noon tomorrow. If he takes it, great. If not, you tip your hat and move on to plan B, because you are not going to sign him anyway.
DeleteDon't worry about what the Dodgers have or what they are doing. We have made it clear that just getting into the playoffs can result in a World Series. Let them spend their money. On paper they had a much better team last year but we still beat them 9 out of 19 times. That isn't bad at all.
ReplyDeleteDodger's biggest issuse if manager, not talent. If they had three pitchers, they could kill it in the playoffs with a good coach. Having said that, while they lose Rameriz (who can have a bad attitude) and Beckett (ditto), they still have angst at the OF level and holes. They could easily win the division, and DBs will also be heavily favored with Tomas. I'm much more worried about fixing our own issues than worried about them.
ReplyDeleteGet Headley a 3+1, sign Hammels and give Melky a one year deal (allows us to see if Carbonell, Parker or someone else can step up for next year).
DBs heavily favored with Tomas? Really. Guy hasn't hit one MLB pitch and he is turning the DBs into heavy favorites. Really?
DeleteThe DBs were favored last year before Tomas. I don't see them not being favored above us. I would think the pundits will say Dodgers first, DBs second, us third, Colorado/Pads. I don't think they should, but I think they will.
DeleteThe D'Backs are terrible with or without Tomas.
DeleteI am thinking Headley is just too expensive for my tastes. I think we could have a cost controlled player at 3B and be just fine. One player that seems to fit the bill is Luis Valbuena from the Cubs. I have heard he might be available with the amount of talent they have in minors, especially phenom Kris Bryant. He has some pop with 16 HR and 33 2B. Plus his OBP is .341 and can take a walk (65BB v 113K). He is under team control until 2017. This move could allow us to spend more at either SP or LF or free up money to try to sign Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada when available.
ReplyDeleteRemember Valbuena's 16 HR's were hit playing his home games in Wrigley. Also, last year was a career year for him. Very high risk of regression.
Delete9 were away and 7 were home. My point is he is cost controlled and pretty low risk/high reward. Kris Bryant doesn't have much more to prove so he might be expendable. Personally I would rather put the money into a top tier SP than 3B. We will also need another SP next year so it might be nice to get 1 decent starter this year so it is not such a huge need next year. I am okay with Hammel but I am not a huge Headley fan. I say save the money if Lester or Scherzer are gone. Maybe we can use it mid season to take on a contract a team out of the running is willing to get rid of.
DeleteCheck out Velbuena's stats in prior years. I still say he's very high risk for regression.
DeleteI'm all in on El Lechero, ONLY IF he is taking his PEDS. That guy could rake. Giving that other guy 5 years or even one year with the attached bad mojo is not happening.
ReplyDeleteDocB's Truth #6 - No leche for you!!!
+1
DeleteJeff Passan just reported on Twitter: "Sources: Clubs being told Chase Headley has a four-year offer for ~$65M. @JonHeymanCBS says Marlins interested. Unclear if that's the team."
ReplyDeleteI hope that is not us. He is not worth $65M. That is a big pass from me.
4.4 WAR last year, despite a first half slump. 3.6 in 2013 despite a full-season slump.. And has close to a 4.0 WAR average.
DeleteAnd, the best part is, even before he left the Padres, he went back to the bat grip he'd been using his entire career and (more or less) broke out that 1.5 year slump. The key being he went back to his old grip after the 2014 All-Star break and in the month between that and his trade, hit .316.
Now, he's not a .300 hitter. More like .265, 13 HR and a .344 OBP... But his WAR projects out better than Sandoval (from a whole-player perspective) who hasn't broken 3.0 WAR in past 3 seasons. So I think he's a good value for the money. Certainly a better value than the 5/$95 the Red Sox just paid.
Yep, hope it's the Giants.
DeleteSounds like the Giants are checking in on Melky, who wants a 5yr deal. Sounds a little too long for me but what options do they have to get some thump into the lineup? While he might not provide 20+ HRs/year, I think he'd help out. I agree that Blanco is a good player, I just have a hard time believing that he can produce as a starter for a full season.
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to come to terms with the fact that we won't have anyone to replace Sandoval's offense in the lineup, whether that comes from LF or 3B (or any musical chairs rearrangement of players). It's going to be a disappointing offseason... I agree, $65M for Headley seems very steep.
Alan
Ok, as much as I'm not opposed to Melky, no to 5 years. That makes no sense.
DeleteThe loss of the draft pick doesn't make sense either.
DeleteLester I think now isn't going to happen. Too many deep pockets in the mix. I think Headley 4/65 um, no thanks. Melky is someone I'd be ok with 4/48. Would really hate losing that first round pick though. Gives me pause. Mike Morse at 1B 3/30. Trade Belt(and parts) for Carlos Santana(6 mil 2015 or Lonnie Chisenhall(not sure? 1-2 mill. 3 yrs service time) Indians in the market for 1B. Would love to continue the Panda theme with Santana...another Panda at 3B. Re-sign Vogey one year 5 mil. That's 28-33 million for payroll where as Lester would be in that kind of range also.
ReplyDeleteCF Pagan
LF Melky
C Posey
RF Pence
1B Morse
3B Santana/Chisenhall
2B Panik
SS Crawford
P
Right now Hammel and Headley would be at 28 mill in salary hypothetically.
Giants just looking for SP and 3B...Buster says that ain't happening when asked about Melky! Didn't want to loose the pick anyway. Stock the farm.
ReplyDeleteI'm a little disappointed that it appears the Giants are not going to overpay for a free agent so far. The trend has been that overpaying is necessary to sign a free agent, and the Dodgers seem to be doing that. Don't the Giants have the resources to overpay for a free agent once in awhile? I think Lester is worth an overpay in this market but I'm interested in your thoughts about that.
ReplyDeleteAnd what has overpaying like crazy gotten the Dodgers so far?
DeleteMy bad for stirring the Milk-pot. NO WAY do we give up our first rounder. I have problems giving that pick up to a great SP, but Melky? Please...
ReplyDeleteHeadley reportedly has 4-$65 on the table. Assuming that's not the Giants (hope not) then what WOULD the Giants have to offer?
ReplyDeleteHeadley outperforms Sandoval regularly on an fWAR basis. If the Giants could have signed PS at 4/$65M, even I would have been pleased, and I'm anything but a big Sandoval fan. If Headley can keep up the level of performance that he has shown, something about which I'm skeptical, 4/$65 is quite fair. We will in that eventuality be very likely better off without Sandoval than with him, provided we can get some antlered animal paraphernalia tie in with CHASE and HEADLEY.
DeleteI agree with Campanari. From a WAR standpoint Headley is better than Sandoval. And yet because defense doesn't get rewarded as much as offense, the more valuable player (from a long-term winning record perspective) gets paid less.
DeleteNo one is talking about the bulging disc in Headley's back. He is not worth a 4 year contract at a AAV over 15 million. I hope we don't get him at that cost. One good year. A lot of bloggers out there kill Belt when he is hitting around .260 and he actually has some power. Just sign Lester for 5/125 or 6/150. Buster and Pence are in their prime, go all in. Trade Crick and Stratton for the best cost controlled 3B we can find and let Blanco and Morse hang in LF.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants are going to have to "overpay" for some one. That is the only way they are going to fill any one of their needs with a legit option. This is a defending world champion and they cannot afford to duct tape their gaps with maybes or fringy type guys. They may get some as backfill but they need to step up on at least one big time signing and perhaps even two if they do a Lester and Headley type of deal. I don't think they even believe that lightening will strike twice with this team and they would have the same success as they did last year.
ReplyDeleteUh, let's see. People, a LOT of people, said lightning would not strike twice after 2010. They said it again after 2012.
DeleteI do not agree that they are going to have to overpay at all, and they should not.
BTW, for the reasons discussed above, Headlley, even at 4/70 is not an overpay, at least compared to Pablo.
It's easy and kinda fun to spend other (rich) people's money, but we're tossing around the term overpay as if it's no big deal and is in fact a necessity to signing a quality free agent. Maybe it's because I'm frugal in real life but I don't see what's wrong with running your business, even if it's the business of sports, in a fiscally wise manner, looking for good value. If I'm on the ownership group and we have to overpay for someone then I don't want him. Move on to someone else.
DeleteCould 2014 happen again? Sure because it did once. However it is not likely and chances are you'd have to wait along time for the stars to align like they did last year. The teams from 2010 and 2012 were stronger, especially their pitching. Last year was kind of flukey with them being there as a 2nd wild card team and riding Madbum like a mule in the WS. Chances of that happening again are long at best. For them to get the top tier pitcher like they need, they are going to have to over pay and should.
DeleteWho says you can't overpay for a player and still not be good business? Its the totality of the team and the contracts. If the Giants sign a guy like Madbum to a very low contract that allows them to overpay for a guy like Lester than I would say that is good business.
DeleteWill someone define "overpay"? Can you tell what's an overpay without knowing what you're paying for, given that what you're paying for is in the future though you are agreeing to the pay schedule in the present? What does overpay have to do with the resources available, which in the case of the Giants we know only very imperfectly? The use of this term in these circumstances puzzles me.
DeleteGood point campanari. All I could suggest is that it might be considered an "overpay" at the time based on the market. To your point though, ultimately how they will perform will dictate if in fact it was an overpay or not.
Delete#1. Every single one of the Giants WS winning teams has been considered a fluke by wide swaths of baseball analysts.
Delete#2. The 2014 Giants team was actually quite a bit better on paper than the 2010 team and about the same as the 2012 team, so I do not accept that it was more fluky that the others.
#3. The track record of teams that consistently shell out huge bucks for long contracts is actually pretty dismal, so I do not accept the notion that overpaying for an elite talent is ever a good something that has to be done.
I believe Giants are waiting for the shoe to drop on Lester.
ReplyDeleteIf he does not take their offer; then watch Sabes and crew make several deals real fast.
I believe our roster will be settled by December 12th
Richard in Winnipeg
One factor on our search for a starter: pitching style. Hudson, Peavy, Vogie, Petit, and Lincecum last year were all low velocity right handed "control" pitchers, which allowed opposing hitters to settle in to one batting form if they faced 3 of them in a series. It would be nice to add a starter who has the velocity to keep hitters timing off to start between whichever righties we use next year. (Madbum is his own disruption).
ReplyDeleteWhile there are superficial similarities, I believe there are enough differences between the pitchers you mention that familiarity is not a factor. Good pitching is good pitching and bad pitching is bad pitching.
DeleteSomeone asked why their comments were being deleted because they are baseball related and not rude or disrespectful.
ReplyDelete#1. Being rude and disrespectful and non-baseball related are not the only criteria for deletion.
#2. Rude and disrespectful is in the eye of the beholder.
#3. Yes, alternative viewpoints are allowed. If you read through the comments you will see that there are quite a few still standing that do not agree with my point of view.
#4. The criteria is the same as it has always been: Have a take, don't $#&@! Think about your comments that got deleted and how you can make them more contributory.
#5. As always, each individual comment is judged on it's content. Just because you get 10 deleted in a row does not mean the next one will be if it a contributing comment.
#6. Commenters with recognizable screen names and a track record of contributory comments get longer leashes.
I hope we not paying Headly 4/65$ sounds terrible for a all glove no bat guy to me. I'd rather we trade Crick and Duffy and try to get Justin Upton. Also I love Ishikawa but he kinda not needed for the bench because Posey is gonna play~20 games at 1B? Unless. ..lol...move Belt to LF and sign Kyle Blanks to platoon at 1B with Ish. We know they were in hard on Abreu which would have moved Belt to LF. So we know it's possible that it could happen for the right situation. Not my ideal scenario because I want to trade Crick and Duffy for J Upton.
ReplyDeleteYou understand that you would be only getting 1 year of Justin Upton for Crick and Duffy, right? Also, I would take issue with your statement that Headley is all glove and no bat. His bat has had it's ups and downs but has been an overall plus. Ishikawa's main job, if he makes the final roster will be to PH. I look at his signing more as a reward for the Bobby Thomson impersonation. I don't think it's a slam dunk he makes the final 25 man roster.
DeleteIf Andre went to Fangraphs, he would see that Headley is about as good with the bat as Sandoval, as to OBP, ISO (power), and wRC+. His superiority over Sandoval does come from his defensive WAR, but as far as hitting goes, they look to me pretty much of a muchness. Sandoval strikes out a good bit less, but I don't think that's what Andre is troubled by. Can you be specific, Andre, as to what you mean?
DeleteIm okay with giving up Crick and Duffy for a 28 yr old powerful, durable RH hitter. Duffy a UTL MI, while Crick is wild and injury riddled. As for Headly don't laugh but I'm looking at *gasp* RBI &HR. Actually I'm thinking of presence and clutch too.
DeleteI realize that some fans (like me) get overly attached to the next phenom prospect, and I appreciate that sometimes you need to be pragmatic and make a trade. But I think if you're going to do that, you do it eyes wide open. Relative to Crick, while I get there is a "wild" factor, I would not call him "injury riddled". Further, he's awfully young and some wildness is attributable to that. Personally, I have Beede, Crick, Blackburn on my "its gotta be really good" list and getting one year of Upton isn't worth it to me. Having won three series on the backs of our pitching, having only one dependable horse in the barn, I say we don't trade those guys when they're two years away from the Second Coming of a shut down pitching staff. I think there are other guys on the close to that tier (like Escobar may have been) that you could move for the right guy, but not those three. Least not until we see the draft and we see who we get.
DeleteI personally think we're in on Headley given that the Marlins aren't. If we get him, I am fine with our off season. If we pull of Lester too, that would be fantastic. I would say that if we get Lester, maybe one of the untouchable 3 becomes a bit more tradeable, but I'm not sure I'd even go that far unless we're pretty sure Cain is back. We still need to replace the Tims.
We just won the World Series. I'm not okay with testing prospects and maybe. Time to go Yankees and compete every year. We'll find more prospect. We not gonna find another Posey. Strike now, while we have a club that is elite. I'd love Kemp or Upton. I'm not in on Lester. I'd be mad over Headly.
DeleteMad over Headley = mad as in the Noel Coward song, "I'm mad about the boy," or as in, "Boy, am I mad!"? As far as I can tell, Headley is about as likely to hit HRs as Sandoval: he hit 13 in 2013, in Petco Park, and also 13 last year, though some of those may have benefited from those snug fences in Yankee Stadium. His ISO, a measure of power, is about the same as Sandoval's over the years. Sandoval's BA with runners in scoring position is, I believe, identical with his overall BA, so his special clutch factor is zero. Looks to me as though Headley's is about the same too. As to RBIs, one ought to keep in mind that for his whole career till part of 2014 Headley played for the Padres, with their miserable general offense, so he was less likely to find men on base to knock in. The numbers tell me that he Giants are likely to get roughly the same amount of thump from Headley, if they luckily land him, that they would have had from Sandoval.
DeleteAs to "presence," I don't know. There has sometimes been a great deal of Sandoval present in the batter's box. Headley's presence is more linear.
No way the Dodgers are trading Kemp to us.
DeleteDocB's Truth #7 - Rihanna's ex boyfriend is not playing LF for the Giants
I agree with you in a sense of we just won the world series and we shouldn't be putting band-aids everywhere. Trading prospects such as Crick is not so bad because of the international market. There is a lot of value out there and you can replace prospects from the draft with just money and not for other players.
I'm not interested in hearing any internal names for 3B unless Duvall figured out how to be better defensively. I would rather try to find a trade partner for 3B because I don't like the idea of Headley unless it is in the $50-56M range. I am okay with a cheaper SP like Hammel because AT&T park can turn an average pitcher into a better one. Obviously I am pulling for Lester though. I am okay with Blanco, Perez and Ishikawa in LF for now. Maybe a trade or a mid season acquisition could bolster that position but we will be good for now.
Andre,
DeleteYou are sounding like a bit of a troll here but since a couple of guys have responded, I will give you the benefit of the doubt and not hit the button on your comments…..yet.
You say you want the Giants to be like the Yankees. Well, how many championships have those Yankees won in the last 10 years?
What was it that Belt said "All I can say is, you can’t buy chemistry." Dodgers and Yanks should learn a thing or two from him.
DeleteTotally agree on Belt's assessment. That's the thing the Yankees and Dodgers miss. Money can't buy you two things--love and WS rings. Well, maybe one thing. ;)
DeleteI actually disagree with Roger on the internal options at 3b, however. While I'm not saying that I believe Duffy, EA or Duvall are the guy, I'm not convinced their not. I am a firm believer that until you give guys a meaningful chance, you don't know what they can do. I think we've confirmed Perez is not an every day guy. I think it is certainly more likely than not that Dominquez (sp?) isn't either. But, none of Duffy, EA, Duvall or even Brown have been given a legit chance and both Duffy and EA have each shown potential to perhaps be the guy. I think this was one of the objections some had on Belt's early days (and i mean early); the somewhat yo yo he had never let him settle in. The converse was true of Pill--he had a lot of chances and never really clicked. I'm all for cutting bait with (or at least getting realistic about) a prosect, but I think they deserve a shot if they've proved themselves in the minors. Of the list, we know Duffy can hit, but we don't know if he has the arm. We know EA can field but not at third base and maybe can't hit. There are quetsion marks all over. That isn't the same as they don't work. We just don't know if they do.
If we can get Headley, that's one thing. But I'm not sure trading for a questionable defender or a questionable hitter when we have two guys for free that might be as good makes a lot of sense. In fact, I guess if we're throwing questionable defenders in the mix, it should be fair to say "is Duvall worse" since we actually think he can hit for a ton and had some nice HRs.
BTW, not to completely change gears, but is Travis' contract guaranteed? If so, it looks like Blanco in left and Travis a back up, bench and first baseman (with Posey actually gettng more time off). Not sure what else they would envision since they just gave him $1mm. Seems like Duffy either starts or goes to AAA (with Arias unless he's traded, Susac and EA being the other back ups).
Don't get me wrong, I would love Duffy or EA to be the guy. Very cost controlled and home grown. The problem is they have very little MLB experience at the position. EA has played 5 innings at 3B and Duffy has played 2 innings. It is hard to just say they are the 3B of the future. In this case I would recommend a stop gap on a 1-2 year deal such as Alberto Callapso or trade for a guy such as Luis Valbuena (wasn't very popular with DrB but it is a very low risk/high reward in my opinion and should be available). Then you have either EA or Duffy platoon over the course of ST and the regular season. Then you know what you have. If you sign a guy like Headley then you obviously are writing both of those guys off and making them utility players.
DeleteDon't like squeezing lemons hoping for lemonade. Giants in-house 3B options are unproven, have flaws and are closer to squeezing lemons in your eye - only if squint real hard will you get lemonade.
DeleteDuffy - to my eye his arm is a slingshot not a 3B cannon. If you put at 3B do it in AAA and bring him up mid-season.
Duvall - has the hitting profile, but the glove has clanked since A ball. #1 the Giants require top D at 3B.
Ehire - a SS/2B, see what he can do this Spring at 3B. But don't count on it. Is he playing Winter ball at 3B?
Hector Sanchez - Well if he wants a ML starting gig, strap on a 3B glove this Winter and see what happens. This is one tough kid, but this is one tough transition. Don't count on it. He still has lots of value as a switch-hitting C if he can come back.
Moving Posey/Crawford - Not happening
Arias - Okay in-house solution #1. Is he an everyday starter? Can he hit better starting? Will we find out in 2015?
Given the lemons above, we better be looking for outside help at 3B. Headley just doesn't feel right to me, but what the hell do I know.
Yankees payrolls 2010-2014:
Delete2014: $197,230,609
2013: $228,106,125
2012: $209,792,900
2011: $207,047,964
2010: $213,359,389
Giants payrolls 2010-2014:
2014: $149,089,475
2013: $136,908,777
2012: $131,355,298
2011: $118,198,333
2010: $ 96,277,833
Yankees World Series 2010-2014:
0
Giants World Series 2010-2014:
3
Enough said. Let the Giants FO decide the best course for the team. Dumpster diving and rings sound better than big contracts and vacations in October.
I think some general themes are in play:
Delete1) The Giants won 3 world series, but I can't say that they were a favorite on paper to win them. Doesn't take away from the sweetness, but it's natural to want a better team on paper going into the season.
2) Perhaps too much free agent signing could lead to complacency, poor clubhouse chemistry, or inefficient payroll, things that the Giants certainly have avoided.
3) I am not sure if SELECTIVE free agent hunting hurts the club.
4) Perhaps the Giants FO has favored obtaining lesser undervalued players rather than higher priced blue chip stars for certain reasons that I am not wise enough to understand.
DrB, I have always wondered if pictures can be enabled on this site. Occasionally I see an important tweet and it would be cool to attach the picture of it. Is that functionality disabled of not available? Just curious.
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't know. I am very technologically challenged. My daughter helped me set up the site and it's pretty bare bones which is about all I can handle.
DeleteI just asked because I am a website designer and if you ever need help with stuff let me know. I do mostly E-Commerce sites but I am interested in designing a blog from the ground up so it has everything I need.
Delete