Keury Mella, RHP. DOB: 8/2/1993. 6'2", 200 lbs.
2012 DSL: 3-3, 2.47, 69.1 IP, 28 BB, 75 K, GO/AO= 1.39.
2013 AZL: 3-2, 2.25, 36 IP, 11 BB, 41 K, GO/AO= 2.39.
2014 Low A: 3-3, 3.93, 66.1 IP, 13 BB, 63 K, GO/AO= 2.27.
2014 SS: 1-1, 1.83, 19.2 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, GO/AO= 0.85.
Keury Mella has had some buzz about him for awhile now. The selling point is his mid-90's, heavy FB that produces, in addition to a healthy K rate, a good number of broken bats and a lot of ground balls. He also has a curveball and changeup that are plus pitches at times, but still somewhat inconsistent. David Lee, the reporter who covers the Augusta Greenjackets, has an extensive scouting report in which he states that Mella has the highest ceiling of any Augusta pitcher since Kyle Crick and the best stuff since Madison Bumgarner.
While Mella forms a high ceiling trio with Tyler Beede and Kyle Crick, he does not come without risk. He has a rather extreme "inverted W" in his arm load, which some analysts equate with injury risk, particularly UCL tears. I would add that the "inverted W" theory is still unproven and highly controversial. Mella did suffer what sounds like a rotator cuff strain from Lee's description in June which caused him to miss almost 2 months of the season. He came back on a rehab assignment in Salem-Keizer ramping up from 1 inning to 5 over 6 appearances without any apparent setbacks.
If he is fully healthy, I would expect him to be assigned to San Jose for 2015 and I hope to see him pitch sometime during the season on one of the trips to SoCal.
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Beede and Mella in SJ are 1B to the Richmond OF's 1A for follow interest next year (and yes, Sacto's rotation would be 1C).
ReplyDeleteI've seen some hints that Beede could even start out in Richmond.
DeleteBut he'll most likely start out in SJ.
DeleteAny prospect a year after signing make it all the way to AA?
DeleteTimmy started his first full season in AAA, then the majors within 2 months after that.
DeleteThanks Dr. B Happy Holiday's!
DeleteHope to see him and Beede on stop through Visalia.
ReplyDeleteYou're a doctor, doc, do you think this article does justice to the inverted W theory?
Looks good from heeeeeeere.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html
I looked over O'Leary's site. It's an interesting theory. You have to remember that things that look good in theory don't alway pan out in practice. One example that is closer to my area of expertise is the case of Vitamin E. In theory, Vitamin E has whole host of positive effects on health and disease prevention. I even had one med school professor who passionately taught that large doses of vitamin E would prevent disease and extend life expectancy. He was a highly intelligent man and relished debating the theory with anyone willing to take him on and easily won every debate. The problem is there are now numerous outcomes studies on Vitamin E in various doses and every single one shows worse outcomes in the groups who took the supplement! We still don't really know why the theory does not hold up in practice but the evidence is so overwhelming that we now advise people to not take supplemental vitamin E, especially in large doses. And my old med school professor? He died in his early 70's which is quite young to die these days. Probably was not related to his vitamin E intake, but it did not help him!
DeleteI do not know if such a study has been done, but to prove or disprove the inverted W theory you would have to do still frame analysis on thousands of pitchers and take exact measurements of elbow height relative to the shoulder, then somehow separate that out from confounding factors such as velocity then perform statistical analysis on the presence of absence of injury as well as timing of injury as almost all pitchers eventually get injured.
Remember me telling you about a Leishmaniasis case? Well today is last day of treatment (20 days) for patient. He's been doing outpatient tx with pentostam via IV, delivered by CDC. One of lesions was on patients forehead. Has gone down significantly, just looks like burn now, but may have some scarring. Would Vitmin E oil or something like fish oil do anything to promote healing of skin tissue? Sorry for way off topic.
DeleteNot that I am aware of. The patient should consult with a dermatologist of wound care specialist for specific advice.
Delete…er….dermatologist OR wound care specialist
DeleteLeishmaniasis? Ugh. Nasty stuff. Was once stationed in Northern Afghanistan. WHO rated the area as the worst Leishmaniasis site on the planet. Spread by sand fleas, IIRC.
ReplyDeleteBack to beisbol...At least the Gigantes won't have to face Seth Smith 19 times a year anymore. Traded to Mariners for RP Brandon Maurer:
http://m.padres.mlb.com/news/article/105221492/undefined
Happy New Year to DrB and all his prolific commenters!
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
And Reds just got Marlon Byrd and cash from Phillies for Ben Lively, which seems like a pretty reasonable deal. A comparable deal for the Giants might have involved Blackburn in place of Lively as they are both thought of as more pitchablility arms than great stuff prospects. I could have gone either way on this deal if the Giants had made it, since Byrd would be a solid addition as the starting LF and an important piece for a "win now" campaign that would also allow Blanco to be an oft-used 4th OF, but he is 37 and could start to decline rapidly at any point. Blackburn, on the other hand, could turn out to be a solid mid-rotation arm for years to come. If forced to decide, I think I would choose to keep Blackburn, and hope that the FO has something else up their sleeve to shore up the LF situation.
ReplyDeleteWhat about trading for Drew Stubbs who is probably available?
DeleteI know you are not a big fan of Zobrist but the guy is so useful. He could start off in LF and if McGehee or Panik or Belt were hurt he could make a decent transition and play those positions. Talk about depth. I would not mind giving up a few of our top prospects for him. If we are out of contention and the deadline we could flip him to a team for the stretch run.
DeleteIt's not that I am not a fan of Zobrist. I just think the price to get him would be greater than the benefit.
DeleteThe guy has been pretty solid over his career. Career WAR is 4.1/year. It is also possible if he had a decent year that we could get a QO for him. Especially if he is worth another 4-5 WAR in 2015. He is younger than Michael Cuddyer and the Mets had no problem losing their pick for him.
DeleteWe've been over this before. There is something flukey about Zobrist's WAR's. I tend to believe it is overvaluing his walks and the defensive numbers are flukey. Not a bad player, and very versatile. I wouldn't sell the farm for him,though. It would definitely take more than what the Reds just paid for Byrd.
DeleteLively sounds like he's somewhere between Crick and Blackburn. But maybe close enough to Blackburn that he could have gone and G's picked him up without cash coming.
DeleteCost of Zobrist is at least Crick as I suggested here earlier to the dismay of some. Might be closer to Crick + Susac according to estimates by people in the industry (major league player/s and or multiple prospects).
DeleteI would not trade Blackburn for Byrd. Byrd is 37 and his defense is in definite decline. I would rather get Colby Rasmus and pray that his average is above the Mendoza line.
ReplyDeleteStubbs has played in hitter-friendly environments his whole career and his K rate is a bit scary, even going back to his college days, but he would provide some much needed speed to the Giants lineup. Plus his defense is very good, and he can provide some righthanded pop off the bench. If we can get Stubbs that would be great, but somehow I think the Rockies' asking price would be a bit high considering they would be trading to an intradivision rival.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I would not pay much for him that's for sure. No guarantee that Stubbs would be any better than Justin Maxwell anyway.
DeleteI saw Maxwell in Fresno last year and was very impressed with his physical presence. He looks like a football/basketball/track athlete. He can motor, he can hit ball hard, he can whiff.
DeleteMight as well Max over Stubbs.
Drew Stubbs would be a nice player to trade for. He is in a contract year and could get a nice contract if he plays well. So, there is tons of motivation to get every ounce of talent out of him. I agree with baseballjunkie about the Rockies raising the price tag because he is in the division.
ReplyDelete