Friday, December 5, 2014

Scouting the 2015 Draft: Alex Bregman

AKA Shankbone's White Whale, Bregman the NCAA Freshman Player of the Year in 2013 at LSU.  2014 was also a strong season, but maybe did not quite live up to impossibly high expectations:

2013:  .369/.417/.546, 18 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 16 SB, 1 CS, 24 BB, 25 K's, 282 AB.
2014:  .316/.397/.455, 16 2B, 6 HR, 12 SB, 27 BB, 21 K, 6 CS, 244 AB.

As you can see, Bregman is a high contact hitter with few walks and fewer K's with modest power and speed.  He hit .271 in summer international competition with 10 SB in 10 attempts.  He is known as a baseball rat, a guy who spends enormous amounts of time working to get better.

As for a scouting report, he has good strength packed into an average sized frame at 6'0", 190 lbs.  He has a quiet swing with little extra movement.  BA talked about a "double load".  Not sure what that means.  He does have about a 6" slide step and minimal initial movement of his hands back and up.  He has a level swing plane which does not always produce loft on the ball.  In spite of the level swing, he sometimes gets pull happy and rarely goes to the opposite field.  One criticism was that in the second half of the summer, he was consistently getting tied up inside.

There are a lot of similarities in Bregman's game to Joe Panik and Christian Arroyo, although Panik uses the whole field better at this time.  Bregman tries for more power, but does not always achieve it.  Some scouts think he can stick at SS, but most think he is more of a 2B, but could play almost anywhere on the field.

BA has him ranked as the #10 2015 draft prospect while Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has him at #12. If the Giants hang onto their draft pick, they they might have a shot at Bregman if his 2015 season is more like his 2014 season than his freshman year.


  1. Dr. B good job of sticking with your guns. Every player that is on my wish list for the Giants to get...they won't get. They will not sign Lester. They will not move Morse to 1B and trade Belt. I just wanted to ask is it because you believe Headley and a Hammel are the best choice? It's so unsexy of a move, but it could be the right choice to make. Or is it that you don't want to get your hopes up like the rest of the sorry saps like me! May be you are more analytical than me! Sorry to put this in the Alex Bregman post. I don't disagree with your choices or beliefs, but in someways I'm tired of the Giants being conceived as the underdog. I will take the 3 rings don't get me wrong. The teams that make the big splashes in free agency aren't guaranteed success. I understand all that. I don't try to butt heads with you...I'm trying to pull you over to the dark side of big dreamers like the rest of your readers. I give you credit for sticking with your guns and now Chase Headley is growing on me. So, good job! I don't want to accept Headley at 3B, but you right and it's why I read your blog. Since, this is a draft post...Kyle Cody and Cody Ponce my dream draft.

    1. The part about being a baseball rat, spending enormous amount of time working to get better, this is impressive about the young man.

      As for big splashes this offseason, we all have the inner Gozdilla, to want to assemble the most powerful team and go out and destroy the rest of world. Maybe one day...perhaps. Snap, trade for this major league ready kid and sign that veteran 1B and flip your own...maybe that's why Billy Boy appeals to our impetuous nature, instead of letting nature take its course and prospects, like Panik, Susac, Duffy growing to major leaguers, and appreciating synergy as our GM, manager, coaching staff, and players get more in sum than the total of parts.

      Maybe one day, team chemistry takes a vacation and a bunch of strangers thrown together, with a not-so-important manager babysitting them, win a ring.

    2. Thanks, Justin.

      Here's how I look at it. If you assume that the Luxury Tax threshold is a de-facto salary cap for the Giants, then yes, I do believe that Headley and Hammel are the best combination of signs/trades this offseason that will maximize the production the Giants will get out of that capped salary. Now, if the Giants are willing to blow past the the Luxury Tax threshold, then obviously I would prefer Lester to Hammel as long as they can still sign Headley in the process.

      Then of course, they will probably not sign Lester, Headley or Hammel and we'll all be grinding our teeth a little.

    3. I think if the Giants are talking to SP's like Lester or Scherzer then they may plan to bump payroll up quite a bit. I definitely do not see them going over the cap and also they will leave room if they need to make a trade at the deadline or a waiver claim. Either that or they are trying to throw every other team off of our scent and have no intentions of signing a SP of $25M a year.

    4. Yeah, I have to admit that the rumors are a bit, shall we say, scattershot in terms of a coherent strategy or whether the Giants are operating on a budget of any kind or not.