The Giants apparently threw in the towel on signing a frontline starter and will instead bring Jake Peavy back on a 2 year/$24 M deal. The deal calls for a $4 M signing bonus with $7 M in 2015 and $13 M in 2016. As we all know, Peavy came to the Giants in a midseason trade with the Boston Red Sox last year for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree. At the time, it looked like a too little, too late trade as the Giants had several other holes to fill. The headline deadline deals were being made by Billy Beane across the bay. As it turned out, Joe Panik filled a huge hole at 2B and Peavy stepped into the gap left by Matt Cain's early departure to the DL and the Giants season was saved. Peavy turned out to be the single biggest impact acquisition out of the deadline trades. His pitching line after joining the Giants was 5-4, 2.17, 78.2 IP, 17 BB, 58 K.
Part of his turnaround with the Giants was undoubtedly due to ballpark differences between SF and Boston and the NL West and the AL East. Dave Righetti also helped him with some mechanics tweaks, emphasized establishing the FB on the inside corner which opened up the outside half of the plate to his breaking stuff which he threw more often. His changeup also improved noticeably. Peavy's postseason performance was disappointing and may have hurt his market value this offseason. I thought he looked a bit gassed in the postseason which might be explained by his 202 IP in 2014 compared to 144 in 2013. He also had a thumb injury prior to WS Game 6 which only lasted a couple of innings.
If you compare this deal to the ones given out to the likes of Jason Hammel, Edinson Volquez and Brandon McCarthy, it looks pretty good from the Giants perspective. It would be foolish to expect Peavy to replicate last year's August and September for a full season, but he should be solid pitching in he NL West. The dollars are not going to constrain the Giants from acquiring other players they may need in the future and it avoids a risky, big money, longterm commitment.
I assume this means the James Shields talks are dead and the Giants will keep their first round draft pick, which makes me very happy, although the backloading of the contract into 2016 suggests the Giants may have something else up their sleeve for 2015.
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The Braves are reportedly close to a deal for Justin Upton with some west coast team, but nobody can seem to figure out which one. Hmm…..
ReplyDeleteUpton to the Padres. Wow!
DeletePadres are going all in. Definitely took a hit to their farm system. They have given up some decent prospects to get Myers and Upton.
DeleteGood news on Peavy coming back. Thanks Doc. Merry Christmas to you and yours.
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
Well, then. Gotta figure Allen Craig is next for us. With Peavy + Craig, we'd have only $3M left before we'd hit the Luxury Tax!
ReplyDeleteI don't know if we have enough pieces to trade for BOTH Craig AND Valbuena. Plouffe, Chisenhall, or Freese would be too pricey. So, a big package to BOS? Prolly can't even get Craig + Cecchini or Holt. So... Will Middlebrooks? Yikes. Or a minor league free agent: Betemit or Kouzmannoff? Trade for a prospect? Nah, doubt Sabean & Co. don't play that. No money for Shields or Kang. Depth and injury insurance? Welp, no, not really.
I'll hold final judgement until after all our moves are complete. But as of right now, I'm disappointed.
If the Giants were really serious bidders for Lester, then I've got to think there is something wrong with your luxury tax calculations or else they were willing to go above it for 1 season. Not saying that means we are going to see any more major signings, just an observation.
DeleteWell, obviously... I believe the numbers to be accurate. All I need to do is add them up correctly. That means including all the complex factors of the CBT; like MLB player benefits, call-ups, 40-man roster, minor league deals, arbitration salaries, etc. Actual 2015 payroll stands around $159.8M right now, but around $179.0M towards the CBT!
DeleteI would agree, *maybe* the Giants would've gone over *if* they'd signed Lester (or Sandoval). I can't really know that, sure it's possible. Or else, they might've figured the certainty of Lester in the rotation would've made Blach & Crick more expendable in trades for our other needs? I dunno. I formulated my opinion (about the CBT) from statements made by Sabean & Evans. "We're not going to bump up against the CBT anytime soon." "We have to be protective of payroll."
I do not believe anyone outside the Giants front office knows for sure what the numbers actually are.
Deleteinteresting
ReplyDeletemakes me wonder if giants are not sold on a single arm in the farm system
well, rotation is set.....but much older
good luck to the trainers keeping these guys healthy
bacci
I would say this means that they are indeed sold on the arms in their farm system, just not for 2015.
DeleteDoc, I think that is exactly right. I see it playing out this way: Peavy, Huddy and the Freak all had decent first halfs and got gassed. We have Petit in the wings, where I think he is best and this gives (at a minimum) Blackburn a shot to get major league ready. Similar to MadBum, they can bring him up late for an audition, and not push Beede or Crick necessarily. I actually think the move is brilliant because Peavy for two years gives a bridge to the rest of the farm. Plus, worst case, he's tradeable (although I doubt we'll have three starters good to go by 2016). Same kind of move with Romo--gives us a chance to get Strickland up to shape and see about Okert, Law, etc.
ReplyDeleteAs for back loading, I am not sure whether they have something planned for 3b/LF, but it gives them options. More importantly, the back loading of Peavy's contract doesn't really hurt them given they have $30mm coming off the books in 2016 (and with the way they've staggered the rest of the long term contracts, they will have consistent room without necessarily adding to overall payroll). FO does well, assuming what we all hope, the position players and pitchers in the minors continue. Drafting three high helps those odds.
Best, and to all HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
Peavy has full no-trade clause
DeleteWhich just means he can demand compensation in return for his approval of a trade.
DeleteI like what PEAVY did for the Giants this past year and think he could be a decent 3rd-4th starter on a short contract. He's a battler and will do good pitching in SF. In that respect, I like the deal.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in the bigger picture, not crazy about the strategy. More than likely means the GIANTS will not go after any of the big three starters (Shields, Scherzer, Hamels). I think they needed one given their farm system and you can never bank on next year's FAs. However, I understand the reasons for not going after these three pitchers and instead going for stuff like Peavy and what promises to be a ho-hum arm like Vogey. But, don't think it will be enough for another PO year..
Why? Because it means they will be counting/hoping on some big turn arounds from Lincecum and Cain. And even Hudson, wore down big time. Very risky, very risky. Alot will be based on HOPE--- the hope that Cain can come back from his injuries to his former level, that TIMMY will find the key working with his father again, and that we can squeeze one more year left out of Hudson's body and arm....All possible but how likely?And I don't even want to think about the fifth starter (Vogey--please no)
More important, Say the rotation does pitch up to it's capabilities. Even then, it will only do if we had bats equivalent to last year, while it only seems like the Giants want to dumpster dive for BOTH 3B and LF to replace PABLO and Morse..
.But, SABEAN has made it work before..We'll see..
I would love Craig, but don't see us as a match for Boston..Alot of the other options being floated around nauseate me...
Wow, LA and SD will be tough next year...
SteveVA
Hey Steve. I agree with your thoughts. Need more bats. Not only Sandoval and Morse... But Hicks was huge, Colvin chipped in some. Maybe we can expect Kontos to offer what Gutierrez did (or better). But a lot of things clicked at certain times (like Romo's 1.00 ERA down the stretch while Peavy was pitching to a 2.17 ERA. Our offensive production the first two months along w/ Huddy and Machi being amazing). Let's also remember there were two terrible months in 2014.
DeleteA lot based on HOPE. I sure hope Panik continues his incredible development, Cain is healthy and awesome, Belt & Pagan stay healthy, etc...
Like you, I've not figured out how we match up w/ Boston. They really don't need #4/#5 starter prospects, a catcher, a UT/IF like Adrianza/Duffy, or an OF like Williamson. Unless they REALLY like one of them. So what to offer? Relievers like Hall, Okert & Black aren't landing a guy like Craig with 3 years of cost control (4 w/ option), right? Does BOS project any arm we have to be a future #2? Meija, Mella, Crick, Ysla or other? I've no idea, but I figure that's what they'd be looking for. Cheers.
True, during the on years, we have got help from the unlikeliest of places....Not so much during the Off years..Just not something I would count on..WOuld rather try and put together the best team possible going into Spring Training...Still time....We'll see..
DeleteMaybe a trade with Boston for Craig would have to be a three way deal? Can Sabean join the hip younger crowd and do this kinda stuff? :)
SteveVA
But say they signed Lester or Shields or traded for Hamels. They STILL need Timmy and Cain to turnaround and they still need one more year out of Huddy or they are still in a lot of trouble. I don't see a Lester/Shields/Scherzer or Hamels as any magic bullet for this team.
DeleteBut it is one less pitcher to hope and pray for...Madbum and, say, SHields give you two starters you can rely on (instead of one) while a healthy Cain would give you three,,,,The uncertainites at 4 and 5 would be much less worrisome....
DeleteAll a moot point, Timmy is not going to the bullpen at 18 mil per year...Let's hope the trainers can keep Cain, Peavy and Hudson together all year and that Timmy and his Daddy come up with the answer...
SteveVA
What I am saying is, I'm not sure how much difference it makes if you have 5 or 6 question marks, it's still a lot of ifs and everything still has to break right.
DeleteWow, does the new Padre GM have a gun to his head to make a certain quota of trades?
ReplyDeleteUpton earlier this morning, now flipping Hannigan to get MIDDLEBROOKS to play 3B?
The guy sure is trying and putting a totally new stamp on the Padres. It was needed and You gotta applaud the guy for the attempt and the use of assets....And what good is a farm system if you can't grow them and turn them into major leaguers..can only stockpile so much....Of course, everything comes down to how they have evaluated the players and what takes place on the field ..Only time will tell.
SteveVA
Whoa. But the idea of NOT trading some key future pieces Rymer Liriano, Matt Wisler, or Austin Hedges is pretty brilliant. I'm still in shock they moved Trea Turner, but he was a ways off and they want to win now- with their stellar pitching. Jace Peterson is going in the J Upton deal? So, I guess that's what a smaller market team needs to do. They're sure spending their new tv contract monies!
DeleteYup. Only time will tell.
Does anyone know the rationale for paying Peavy his $11M by splitting it into $4M signing bonus and $7M salary? Specifically, does this mean for Peavy that he gets the bonus up front rather than in biweekly salary installments, and does it mean for the Giants that the $4M does not count toward the salary total that, if exceeded, incurs the luxury tax?
ReplyDeletePerhaps I can chime in here. Peavy's salary structure does NOT affect the CBT. It is accounted for by: 4+7+13 = 24M/2 = 12M AAV. The CBT goes by "average annual value" (AAV) of the total contract, including signing bonuses. So, 12M applies to the CBT from Peavy in both 2015 & 2016. As I understand it, MLB players are only paid during the season, so there is certainly a 'practical' advantage to Peavy getting a signing bonus...
DeleteI don't yet know how Peavy's bonus is structured. For example, did you know Posey received 2M on 1/15/2014 as a deferred signing bonus? Posey's 2014 salary was "only" 12.5M in 2014. But, include his 2M deferred bonus and he actually got paid 14.5M. That's still a far cry from his CBT amount of 18.56M AAV (9/167M). So, in effect he made the CBT very unbalanced between 'actual' salary (12.5M) and CBT salary (18.56M) by over 6M!
Some receive their bonus in one payment- early, maybe even before Jan 1. Others sometimes get it split, for example Hanley Ramirez gets 1.5M on 1/15/15 and 1.5M on 3/15/15. I imagine Peavy might get it all up front. Practically speaking, it makes the most sense for him. To rent or buy a home around SF, and maybe one for spring training in AZ as well. Hopefully this answers your questions, sorry if it is long-winded!
Thanks.
DeleteThe Giants are definitely putting all their eggs into the "Praying Pagan and Cain come back 100%" basket. No significant upgrades. They also have not responded to losing Morse or Panda which combined for a decent amount of power. I would like to think we have at least one impressive move coming. I think they are done with the rotation otherwise we have a $18M arm in the bullpen. So that leaves LF and 3B. With Upton gone I cannot even think of anybody who is available who would be a significant upgrade from Blanco. Allen Craig is a name floating around but he had a horrible 2014. If he can put up number similar to 2013 then maybe.
ReplyDeleteYeah, same thoughts here...So much hoping involved....Heart over mind it almost seems..
DeleteCraig did have a bad year but all the three years before that is a player you would want and he's cost controlled..A pipe dream I think...
I'm also coming up empty for LF and 3B, or at least empty for a player I would like.......AOKI played RF for KC, could probably play LF in SF?
Prado (Yanks) at 3B? Not too crazy about McGhee, Chisenhall, etc..When do we find out if the Giants POSTED the Korean SS? One thing I konw, KEEP PANIK at 2B which means no Cabrera if he won;t move...Might be a decent player if he would willingly give 3B a shot...
Maybe out of the blue BUSTER comes out and says he liked to go back to the infield..:)
SteveVA
I read the Korean team will know the winning bidder on Tuesday. It is the old Japanese posting system where they will only be able to negotiate with the winning bidder and not get to pick between a few top bidders.
DeleteI believe posting fee bids are due by 2 pm PST today. Then, the process takes over. I think(?) MLB has 4 days to report the winning bid to Kang's KBO team (Nexen Heroes). Yes, that would fit Roger's explanation of Tuesday. Nexen would then confirm or deny his posting, based upon whether they are satisfied with the winning bid. Then the winning team has something like 30 days to negotiate with Kang on acceptable terms.
DeleteLook out, SD might get involved now! I'm thinking the CBT might stand in the way of SF even placing a bid... Depends how much we spend to fill 3B & LF. But who knows, eh?
With Prado going to the Marlins, Casey McGehee may be expendable. I am not saying I am a fan of him but he probably wouldn't cost much and had a great 2014 although his power numbers dropped to nothing.
ReplyDeleteFunny..as soon as I mentioned PRADO above and then, poof, he's gone...Could have been a good fit and better than what's left...But hopefully Sabean surprises me..it just seems like SABEAN doesn't want to give up anything, be it players, prospects or dollars. I guess being the reigning champs lands some credence to that strategy but everybody knows how close this team was to NOT being in the POs last year....And so far it has gone significantly downwards....
DeleteAnd now I'm reading the Giants might be interested in SD trash heap cast offs such as Maybin, Venable and Denorfria...Jus what we need, another .240 hitter..Swing for the fences Sabes! Rather go with Brown, Domiguez or host of other minor leaguers..
DeleteSteveVA
There it is. Our new third baseman? 6 minutes ago MLBTR reported "A's release Nick Punto." lol.
ReplyDeleteWe didnt have the amo for Prado If Evoldi was the price they had in mind. Evans did say that Moncada was a "special talent".... At this point, I feel like the only way to get any value this off season is through the international market. Monacada and the other Cuban who pumps mid 90s would be a mighty fine Christmas present from the FO! Doesn't do much for now, but that adds some special talent to the farm to go along with out four top 100 picks.
ReplyDeleteMaybe in this case the Yanks indeed wanted a young flame throwing hittable starter so perhaps you are right...But the Giants do have some ammo (maybe young relievers), just ammo they don't want to give up in trades...
DeleteSteveVA
Dang, I didn't realize SD got Aaron Northcraft in the J Up deal! That's a solid get for Preller & Company.
ReplyDeleteWhat's so great about Aaron Northcraft?
DeleteI just remember at the 2013 trade deadline thinking we might've been able to flip Gaudin to ATL. They desperately needed a starter, and Gaudin held something like a 2.70 ERA at the time. I had expected Northcraft was ahead of David Hale on their rotation depth chart. I liked Hale a lot and hoped we'd deal for him. (I've always liked Nick Kingham from PIT tons more). I had figured Northcraft was probably even better, more projectable.
DeleteApparently I thought wrong. Hale soon earned his call up and has been stellar since (but not starting much), while Northcraft was the one left behind. So, I guess I'm just thinking Northcraft is a pretty good "add" for SD. Considering he wasn't in the J Upton trade rumors, but is in the final return. You know? It would be like hearing notthing important is going to Miami, compared to hearing Blackburn is shipping out. That's all, I guess.
Well, looks like it's McGehee and his total lack of power at 3B....Can hit a bit and get on base though..but also hit into 31 Double plays...No way a middle of the order bat like PABLO or even MORSE..We still need one somehow, someway...
ReplyDelete"The Marlins and Giants are closing in on a deal that would send third baseman Casey McGehee to San Francisco, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel reports on Twitter.
SteveVA
Sorry SteveVA. We were writing the same thing. :)
DeleteKen Rosenthal tweeted this "Source: #SFGiants talking to #Marlins about 3B Casey McGehee. Hunter Strickland, Matt Duffy among SF players under discussion."
ReplyDeleteUgh. That is not a good trade IMO. Maybe one but not both. The Marlins have Prado so they are at a point of weakness. Don't let the fish push you around Giants.
No problem Roger....Agree..Both are WAY TOO MUCH.....I think either might be too much also....How bout Adrainza or Heston or Cordier.or Fleet.....or two of the above..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I think it is way too much for McGehee. Other than 2014 his last good year was 2010. He was out of baseball for 2013. I would much rather sign a guy like Chris Johnson who has similar numbers and 3 years on a deal in which Atlanta would probably pay a little of the contract. I would be okay with giving up a few guys for him because he isn't a rental. McGehee is a rental and possibly a fluke.
ReplyDeleteChris Johnson can't field the position. McGehee is passable at it. Yes, he is a rental, but since he will be a 33-year-old journeyman at the end of the season, the Giants should not have much trouble re-signing him if they want to. They are able to get rid of him, which would not be true of Johnson.
DeleteIt's hard to be enthusiastic over McGehee, though. I hope that if the Giants get him, they don't give up much.
When you say "out of baseball in 2013," you mean in NPB winning the Japan Series title? Alongside Masahiro Tanaka, Andruw Jones... and the pitcher you said you like Takahiro Norimoto? Hitting 28 HR & 93 RBI in the regular season?
DeleteSorry, I meant out of MLB for 2013. That is great but his powers definitely did not translate. 4HR and 28HR is a big difference. I didn't like him for Strickland and Duffy. We will find out shortly who actually he is being traded for.
DeleteMaybe Miami will "toss in" Jose Fernandez? LOLOLOLOLOLOL.
DeleteWhy stop there. How about Giancarlo Stanton? LOL
DeleteI wonder if SabEvans are talking to Dan Haren, seeing if he'd pitch in SF? If he's included, that could be some nice rotation depth.
ReplyDeleteCasey McGehee is our new 3B. Jon Heyman recently tweeted. Aparently Hunter Strickland is NOT in the deal. Not sure if it is for Matt Duffy or someone else.
ReplyDeleteI guess I am okay with this acquisition but I would have preferred someone with more years of control. Can't always get what you want.
The suspense is killing me. Joe Frisaro tweeted "I'm hearing Casey McGehee is going to the #SFGiants for two lower-level Minor League pitchers #Marlins No announcement yet".
ReplyDeleteHope they aren't decent pitchers like Mella or Santos.
Mella and Santos would be a disastrous trade for the Giants. Can't believe this is going to be anything of real value. Marlins are desperate not to have to pay McGehee's salary after acquiring Prado.
DeleteI agree. I hate giving up anything of value for a rental.
DeleteYup, we really need to add at least one young, cost-controlled talent to help our future. Instead, giving up- gasp- anything like one of Mella or Santos or Ysla... along with Black or Stephen Johnson... would be misery.
DeleteFor a year of McGehee? Oh dear. Why didn't we just sign Kozmannoff or Betemit? If defense *clearly* isn't a high priority, then why don't we just go with Duvall? From Sandoval to Lester to Tomas to Headley to Shields to... THIS? L-O-L. I'm so tired of rentals; we're thinning our farm, our future cost control. Meanwhile we're accumulating a massive payroll. Is this really a $160 million team? Whoa.
In all fairness, McGehee is much better fielder at 3B than Duvall and a better player than either Kous or Betemit. I'm not excited about the deal either, but let's at least be real about our criticisms.
DeleteDo you believe in batting splits? Betemit has been very good vs. RHP.
DeleteCarmot,
DeleteWhat year do you think it is? Wilson Betemit has had exactly 10 MLB PA's since 2012 and hit .217 in AAA last year.
Giving away Duffy for McGehee is stupid. If this happens, then it is time to retire the old horse and bring in some fresh blood.
ReplyDeleteBobby Evans says deal is not done and Giants minor leaguer players named in the media are not involved.
DeleteI like the McGee move.Not to excited about Peavy.Even more reason to resign Vogey.I think Hudson,Peavy,and Lincecum are gonna have a lot of 5 or 6 inning starts.You're gonna need two long guys to cover that.Machi has to go.He's only good for 1 inning.If that.I expect a huge run at Moncada.
ReplyDeleteNice all we traded was Flores, and Luis Castillo.Nice move Sabean.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's FLORES aand CASTILLO..I don't mind giving up either, they will be replaced from below....I'm just not so sure about McGehee...
ReplyDeleteBut, the guy can play a decent 3B...can hit for average and can get on base alot..supposedly a very good club house guy too....but no power anymore and not very fast and hits into a lot of double plays...Actually, sounds like a BILL MUELLER....I'm not mad or anything, I just don't know...This might have to be a trust SABEAN move...
But, if anything, he's a #2 or #7 hitter and we need to find some damn power!!! Sabean better do that
Speaking about power, wondering if Mcgehee changed his approach with his power numbers/XBH so low (but his average and OBP really good) compared to his previous good ML years?
SteveVA
McGhee will hit 6th or 7th.
DeletePersonally, I'll let the manager decide that.....IMO not enough power or XBH for 6th, until he shows otherwise....Also, as it stands now with weak power hitters like Panik, Blanco (I don't see a strong bat coming in) and Mcgehee all in the lineup...and Panik facing the dreaded 2nd year with pitchers adjusting to him...Mcgehee could easily find himself in the two hole also
DeleteSteveVA
Flores frees McGhee spot on the 40 man, too. We need to release two more for Romo and Peavy.
ReplyDeleteWell I like OBP, Casey has a bit of that and some gap power. Hope he comes into the season in a little better shape. Lots of double play balls but maybe just maybe he can find a bit more power and get to double digits in the HR department. Flores looked pretty good a couple of years ago but he is still years away and behind a number of our other minor league righties so I guess it is not that big of a loss. McGhee is cheap so....lightning may strike again.
ReplyDeleteSomewhere above it was mentioned that McGehee was a FA to be, but according to http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgehca01.shtml#contracts he's arbitration eligible next off-season and can't be a FA till 2016..Good position for the GIants..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Mark Minicozzi has signed a minor league deal with Nationals. Led the winter Venezuelan league with OBP of .459. I really was hoping we would find a way to get him to the show whether it was a 4th or 5th OF or even a September callup. Would be a great redemption story. Wish him the best.
ReplyDeleteGood luck Mini! What a shame he got injured right when he looked to be breaking ST camp with the big club in 2014, Hicks sure helped us for a spell early on. I hope he gets a look. You might've seen this already:
Deletehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-mark-minicozzi-or-complementing-projections-with-reason/
Last season, Casey Mcgehee led the league in fielding percentage for 3rd basemen, was 4th in hits, had an on base average over 350, hit 319 with runners in scoring position w/29 doubles. He's a really good ball player joining a championship team of really good ballplayers. And he's a local guy. Great move Sabean! And you saved upwards of 15-20 next year million compared to what Pablo would have cost, thus freeing up money ro be spent wlsewhere. Love it!
ReplyDeleteJoe
Silver City NV
Sorry for the typos. I'm a newbie - my 1st ever post to a blog. Typing on my phone thus the typos. I'm a 68 year old lifetime Giants fan. Lived in NV for 40 years, raised in the NYC projects. As a pup, I saw Willie play numerous times in the Polo Grounds & Ebbets Field, the same with Jackie Robinson et al. Watching Mickey Mantle, Yogi & Whitey Ford also sticks in my memory. These past 5 years have been absolute heaven to this old fan. Who'd have thunk? We're such lucky fans. Let's get another one next year. A big tip of the cap to DrB. I've happily followed this blog for quite a while now. It's a joy. Keep it up.
ReplyDeleteWell thanks, PD! Always glad to have new blood posting comments. Yeah, hope the youngsters don't get spoiled by this run over the last 5 years. They don't know how good they have it! or how long the bad times can last when they come back, which they almost surely will someday.
Delete