Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Down on the Farm: 8/24/2011

AAA Fresno Grizzlies mauled the Sacramento River Cats 14-6:

Andres Torres(CF)- 2 for 5, 2B, BB. BA= .283.
Conor Gillaspie(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B, BB. BA= .296.
Bill Hall(2B)- 4 for 5, 2B, HR(6). BA= .306.
Brandon Crawford(SS)- 1 for 3, BB, SF. BA= .273.
Justin Christian(RF-LF)- 4 for 5, 2 2B, HR(7). BA= .330.
Tyler LaTorre(C)- 1 for 4, HR(3). BA= .303.

AA Altoona Curve defeated the Richmond Flying Squirrels 6-2:

Francisco Peguero(RF)- 3 for 4, SB(8). BA= .303
Skyler Stromsmoe(SS)- 2 for 4, HR(2). BA= .283.

High A Stockton Ports edged the San Jose Giants 5-4:

Gary Brown(CF)- 3 for 5. BA= .325.
Pat Burrell(DH)- 2 for 4. BA= .500.
Nick Noonan(3B)- 2 for 5. BA= .274.

Low A Augusta Greenjackets came from behind to edge the Kannapolis Intimidators 3-2:

Shawn Sanford(RHP)- 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's. ERA= 2.61.
Austin Fleet(RHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 4.32.

Short Season Boise Hawks topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 7-4:

Joe Staley(C)- 2 for 4, HR(8). BA= .297.
Ben Thomas(1B)- 3 for 4. BA= .299.

Payne, Krill and Downing also had 2 hits each.

Rookie AZL Athletics downed the Giants 7-2:

Mike Mergenthaler(LF)- 3 for 5. BA= .358.
Eric Sim(DH)- 2 for 4, 2 2B. BA= .341.
Clayton Blackburn(RHP)- 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 1.08.

12 comments:

  1. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/independent-audit/2011/2612247.html

    good article on jason stevenson and the importance of indy ball

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  2. Bacci, I referenced it at the end of yesterday's Down on the Farm. Looks like you have new underdog to root for. This guy is right up your alley. Great story.

    The part I liked the best was him working on his delivery on his own with mirror work.

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  3. Hey Doc, since you were referencing some of Big Time Timmy Jim's stats in yesterdays wrap of the Friars game, figured i'd throw another "since-the-first-of-june" set of stats out there:

    Since June 1, Tommy Joseph has an avg/obp/slg/ops slash line of, get this, .313 /.366 /.592 /.958. If he can bring above average or even average defense behind the plate this is a stupendous prospect to have coming up the chains, and a young one too. His k% has dropped significantly from his first season and the 50 point differential in avg and obp above is very encouraging.

    Just for comparison sake, Gary Brown, a top collegiate draft pick, has stats over the same period which ate not nearly as favorable (.292/.364/.454/.817). Even compared to Browns season stats, Joseph is showing some very strong tools.

    I have no idea how they are going to play his development since he's so young, but Joseph sits right behind Brown and maybe Surkamp on my prospects list and I can't wait to see this kid moving up.

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  4. Nice to see Torres doing the stuff we were hoping he would do leading off for us.

    And maybe Burrell can be a great bat off the bench for us in Sept!

    About Tommy, I wonder what his BABIP is since June 1st, that would be big clue as to whether he can sustain a high BA or not.

    I would note that Brown is expected to be plus plus defensively in CF, so Joseph will need to boost his defense up to average to keep up with Brown in overall value, offensively and defensively. I've read that Joseph is raw defensively but improving this year, so I don't think he is up to average yet, but if someone has seen differently, that would be great news.

    I would add Joe Panik to the list of players in the mix with Joseph, Brown, and Surkamp (I would throw in Hembree as well).

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  5. doc,

    sorry that i just skimmed your last farm column

    many make light of the indy leagues, but it is apparent that they are becoming more and more important to both guys trying to prove that the mlb made a mistake not drafting or cutting them and to mlb teams as well, as it adds to the pool of talent

    so if you get the chance, and there is one in your area...support your local indy team

    who knows, you could be watching the next jwill, or stevonson

    and doc, its more than rooting on the underdog...its the beauty of this game...proves that indeed, there are second (and sometimes third) chances in life

    happy vsong day

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  6. Pulled the numbers and it looks like Joseph has a .338 BABIP. I'm not sure how that translates though I know it's well above average.

    However, even if his average fell .20 points from that stretch, .293 is still very nice for a power hitter. Additionally, guys that are hitting the ball as hard as Joseph is can be expected to have a BABIP above the average singles/slap hitter who's relying on GBs through the hole.

    For comparison, Ryan Howard has had an BABIP well above .300 every year of his career with the exception of 2008.

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  7. OGC,

    A couple of comments re. Tommy Joseph: 1. BA recently named him as the best DEFENSIVE catcher in the Cal League. Specific comments from Giants coaches and player development people is that he has made great strides both offensively and defensively as the season has progressed. He may be the most improved player in the organization since the beginning of this season. 2. I don't believe BABIP is a good way to evaluate prospects in the lower minors. Would you be higher on him if he had a .220 BA with a .240 BABIP? I don't know what Pablo Sandoval's BABIP was in the minors, but I'm guessing it was pretty high. One characteristic you look for in a prospect in evaluating future success is domination at a higher level than is expected for age. Those players don't regress! I really don't give a rat's behind what Tommy Joseph's BABIP is. He's putting together a good season as the second youngest player in his league and showing a capacity for improvement. Would he do just as well at the MLB level? Of course, very unlikely. On the other hand, I don't expect his skills to remain static as he climbs the organizational ladder.

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  8. Thanks DrB for the info.

    For Joseph, I only have what I recall from the preseason talk on him, and they noted, "defensive limitation ... He has a lot of work to do as a catcher ...". I don't have a subscription to BA for their latest info, and to hope that a player makes such strides in just one season is usually folly. Glad to see I was wrong.

    About BABIP, I wanted to see how high it was because if it was an outlier figure, he won't be able to sustain that short hot streak further without regression or further development.

    I agree with most of what you said about evaluating a minor league player, but if his BABIP was extremely hot over a short period of time, you have to wonder if it won't continue.

    At .338 vs. .283 last season and .292 so far this season, it would suggest that he could cool off a lot at some point. And I'm not saying that he will, just that you have to have caution as well as hope that he developed. I think .338 is sustainable for him if something clicked for him because he does hit the ball hard, and a similar thing happened for Pablo when it clicked for him.

    However, if Nick had gave me .400+ as the BABIP, then yeah, I would doubt very much that he would sustain such a high batting line much longer. It is all about context and without that you are just putting your finger in the wind.

    In fact, that suggests that if it is just a hot streak and not development, he could experience a drop off of 50 points, dropping that batting average to .263, OBP of around .316, and his OPS to .800-.850-ish, which I think is good for his age, but not domination for the league, as you put it. And his overall .776 OPS right now is not even good for the league, it is slightly below average for the California League.

    However, I believe in age appropriate comparison, and I think that at .850 OPS or even at league average OPS, he is doing stuff in Advanced A that other 19 YO can't do, he is beating pitchers who are 4 years older than he is, and that is pretty impressive.

    I agree that his skills will not remain static, he's only 19 YO taking on pitchers four years older than he is and he's average, basically, for the league and rising with his hot streak. That is very impressive.

    BABIP is not a be-all and end all, but if a career .300 BABIP hitter is hitting .400 BABIP at any level, you can bet that he will regress from that. Even the fastest and best hitters at any level cannot sustain that high a BABIP. That is all I wanted to know from my innocent comment, to know the magnitude of how much of an outlier he might be doing.

    But I agree that Joseph is a very impressive prospect doing stuff in Advanced A that other 19 YO's can't do, and it is very encouraging that he's improved his defensive abilities greatly too. He could be two years away from starting at C for the SF Giants, if he continues to do this well, and Posey sounds like he is ready to move on another position in the future at some point (I still think 2B is probably best, though maybe corner OF at worse, depends on the Giants needs at that time).

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  9. And FYI, I actually prefer "ogc", which actually is easier to type, no need to shift.

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  10. Part of the problem with using BABIP in the low minors is you still don't have enough of a track record to know what their true baseline BAPIP really is. Couple that with the well known "breakout" phenomenon and you are really left without much of a baseline to regress too.

    Speaking of regression, I think we all realize that Tommy Joseph isn't going to hit a HR per day all season. He was obviously in a hot streak that wasn't going to last forever. I'm quite comfortable with looking at his final full season stat line, his age vs league, the trend of improvement with experience in the league and saying he's an interesting prospect with a high ceiling whose chances of reaching that ceiling are higher now than they were at the beginning of the season. Beyond that, I think you end up in useless speculation.

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  11. Agreed mostly, but that's why I asked about his BABIP, if it was outrageously high, you know it will fall. That is something one can say, nobody which prospect it is, if it were extremely high.

    However, he's in the reasonable region where if he had developed some, he might logically stay up that high.

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  12. I don't think you need BABIP to see Joseph has been unusually hot, and hot streaks usually come to an end. It's nice to know the kid is capable of a hot streak, though.

    Just don't think BABIP is a useful stat for evaluating the performance of young players in the lower minors. That's all.

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