The Giants just kept rolling in a rematch of the World Series opponents. Key lines:
Pablo Sandoval- 1 for 3, BB, SB. BA- .333.
Pat Burrell- 2 for 2, HR(1), BB. Nice game from Burrell to raise his spring BA to .211.
Jonathan Sanchez- 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K's. ERA= 2.08. Very solid effort from Sanchez. All those who are predicting a major regression? Don't hold your breath waiting for it!
Jeremy Affedt- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA- 2.25. Another solid effort from Affeldt who I think is going to have a strong season and play a major role out of the bullpen.
Ryan Vogelsong takes the mound tomorrow against the Mariners as Matt Cain takes a bit more time rehabbing his elbow.
The Giants pitching has taken up right where it left off last year despite the hopefully temporary loss of Matt Cain. They are #2 in the NL in spring ERA at 3.23 behind only Atlanta at 3.14. The Phillies? They're #9 at 3.88. The Giants lead the NL teams in spring K's at 88 and #4 in K/9. Their hitting is not as good, but with that kind of pitching, it doesn't have to be. It's been good enough at #10 out of 16 in BA, #7 in OBP, #7 in SLG%, #6 in HR's. So the Giants expected winning formula of great pitching with average to slightly above average hitting is already showing itself in Spring Training, much like it did last year.
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re baggs, pat shortened his swing
ReplyDeletegiants are getting timely hitting...all 4 runs scored with 2 out
the pablo sb was key to the first two runs scoring...
who predicted drrty to have a major regression? i think people were just a bit concerned because he was gassed by the lcs
he is definitely focused this spring
cain is taking another two days off and will throw again then...does that mean he will miss another start? and what does that mean for him regarding taking his place in the rotation
think its possible that the org will put him on retroactive dl to allow him to strengthen the arm in extended st?
Well, I'd rather have them be cautious with Cainer than try to rush him back. I'd guess he'll be ready to start the season though. Still have over 3 weeks to go. Maybe off days in April will help here?
ReplyDeleteOh, lots of people on various sabermetric oriented baseball sites think Sanchez has been doing it with smoke and mirrors. They point to his high BB rates, low HR rates and high LOB% and say the low ERA is luck. What they are forgetting is part of the reason for his low HR rates is pitching carefully which produces the walks. His K rates should tell them he has the stuff to get out of jams.
i believe it was you who first pointed out that at least during the second half of the season, many of durty's walks strategic...not due from a lack of control...and you proved that pointing how deep he was going into games and his era
ReplyDeletei hate stat heads...paper doesnt prove jack
i know one thing...if this team gives him 4 runs per game...he is gonna win a ton of em
would like to know what belt k'd on,
and bags is reporting that all 0-3 guys have been signed/extension...save for madbum
Bacci, Stats have something to say. It's just a balance between stats and actual play. Too many statheads don't seem to understand what actually happening out there.
ReplyDeleteGreat example in Extra Baggs today, where Posey is talking about going with his gut (not by the book) when calling pitches in the World Series.
Another example, to beat a pretty damn dead horse:
I don't like Zito. His stats, as his supporters keep pointing out, are not bad. True.
But Zito does some things that don't show up in any stat. Running long counts and walking a lot people, NOT on purpose. This is difficult to watch and tough on his fielders. Long innings. No stat for that.
Also, many, many times I've seen the Giants score a run or two in support of Zito, and in the next 1/2 inning, he gives it right back. Disheartening. No stat for that.
Anyway, Bacci, I pretty much agree with you about this, to the point where I stopped playing fantasy baseball, because the people I was playing with seemed to like the numbers more than baseball.
anon,
ReplyDeletewhen posey said that i was amazed...a kid this young should not be able to read hitters that well
usually takes a few seasons or more
bonds, though not a catcher, was brilliant at it...even with no knees, he still played a great lft field, because he knew almost every batter's tendencies and would position himself perfectly...it was like great art
zito's prob is that there is no rhythm...even when durty was walking guys, there was a rhythm to it (till the lcs)...that is what was hard on the fielders
and zito has the worst body language of any pitcher in the minors....you dont let the other guy know what you are thinking....thats the game face
nate has a great game face...even when he k's...even when he rips a double or a triple..same game face...same body language
and i didnt say that i hate stats exactly...this is the game for stats...i hate stat heads...that put stats ahead of the human element
by the stats...the giants dont finish above 3rd...let alone get into the playoffs...let alone win the ws
even now, the stat heads insist the giants dont have a shot....and thats good
There is a place for sabermetrics. I like that Posey has a great feel for the game. Have you seen the way he looks up at the batter before calling each pitch? Don't know what he's looking at, or for, but it's obviously something he's found that helps him know what's going on. I have to say it makes me just a bit uncomfortable to hear him say he relies so MUCH on feel. The stats and scouting reports do mean something. The trick is blending the stats, scouting reports and feel for the game into a seamless whole. It looks like Buster is doing it and doing it well. Hope that continues.
ReplyDeleteIt's not entirely true that the stats say the Giants would have finished 3'rd. It's true that a lot of "statheads" are not enamored by the way a lot of Giants get it done, but if you look at the most advanced stats like defensive metrics and factor that into WAR(Wins Above Replacement) the Giants actually underperformed a bit. By adding up WARs, they should have won 94-95 games in some systems.
I spend a lot of time arguing with "statheads", not because I don't think the stats are useful, but because they sometimes misinterpret them and then get all dogmatic about it. Like "the stats don't lie." Well, numbers are numbers. They exist. The problem is in how you INTERPRET them.
I guess it's kind of like the Bible in Christian religion. Lots of people out there who accept the Bible as the Word of God, yet agree on almost nothing about what it teaches.
My current bugaboo with the sabermetricians is it's very much in vogue to blame everything on chance or "luck". I believe that you only attribute something to chance or luck if you have no other explanation. All of us who have watched Matt Cain pitch a lot know there's way more to his success than "luck", yet try convincing a "stathead" of that. Funny thing is, after a whole lot of debate and discussion, even the "statheads are discovering statistical patterns to Matt Cain's work that suggest it's not due to luck. What do you know? Matt Cain is really, really good!
I'll just add that I don't believe Sanchez or the Giants are walking batters on purpose, at least not very often. I absolutely believe, though, that they do not believe in giving in to hitters, ever. Example: If they have a 3-1 count on a hitter with a couple of runners already on base, they are perfectly willing to still try to hit the corner rather than groove one down the middle and risk having it crushed.
ReplyDeleteI've had some pretty tough debates with sabermetric types about this who scoffed at the notion for a long time. Recently, some of the writers on fangraphs.com have done some research showing that the Giants must be doing something to suppress HR's by opposing batters. It's not just Cain and Sanchez, but almost all of their pitchers. When you get a sample size that big, it's very unlikely to be due to chance, but to something they are intentionally doing to avoid giving up the 3 run dingers.
Bacci & Dr. B,
ReplyDeleteGreat insights. Enjoyed them.
Bacci, I think you make some nice add'l observations about Zito with regard to his composure under pressure and his rhythm. That is it! When I wrote my previous comment, I understood that many pitchers throw at a slow pace, and that doesn't bother me. Why should Zito? And you hit the nail on the head: Other pitchers have a consistent rhythm. But Zito changes up his rhythm, slowing, and shows his stress through his body language. Thank you for putting a finger on that for me.
Dr. B, regarding Posey looking at the batters, that is interesting. I don't know if you've ever read an author by the name of Malcolm Gladwell. He wrote a book called, "Blink." More or less the premise is that when someone is an expert at something, they can size things up very quickly and very accurately. One of stories in the book was about the Getty Musuem spending MONTHS researching a greek statue, making sure it was geniune before they bought it . You can imagine how much process they went through. After they bought it, a curator was showing it off a true expert, who the moment she saw the piece, she KNEW it was fake. And, it turns out, she was correct. How could she know, when the Getty people (dozens of them) could not?
I'm not saying Posey is some kind of genius, but I'm thinking that he is recognizing things, on a subconcious level, about the batters. And that is advising his gut, and what he's calling.
Gut feelings, in this sense, are not guesses. Whatever the tip off is (if the batter is giving one) it is SUBTLE.
Sorry for getting a little off center here, but I am fascinated by this types of intangible ability that making a player greater than his numbers. Maybe in Posey, that is what we have. We know he's very intelligent, very diligent, has a pitcher's background, etc. This type og sub-concious-gut-feeling-blink thing may be why he's had so much success so early.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteOf course I don't know, but I have a "feeling" that Buster is looking for something specific when he looks up at the hitters. The reason I noticed it is I just don't remember seeing any other catcher do that. Buster does it just before putting down the finger signals on almost every pitch. It's very deliberate and he appears to be looking at something specific each time. Hmmm.....maybe Baggs will ask him about it sometime. Baggs is an absolute fountain of that kind of information.