Friday, May 19, 2017

Scouting the Draft: BA's Mock Draft 3.0

BA has a new Mock Draft out with some interesting movement.  We'll review here with commentary then post Minor League Ball's new Mock just for comparison sake.

1.  Twins:  Kyle Wright, RHP, College(Vanderbilt).  Keith Law has insisted all along that Kyle Wright is likely to go 1-1.  That wasn't looking so good early in the season.  It's not that Wright was pitching badly.  He just wasn't having the results you would expect for a 1-1.  That has changed in his last 5 starts as he has put up a 1.14 ERA in 39.1 IP, with 7 BB's and 51 K's.  I've never been sold on Brendan McKay being what the Twins need and I don't think they can afford to take the risk on a HS pitcher, no matter how talented Hunter Greene is.  If I was the Twins GM, I would take Wright, who has a chance to be an ace starter and should be in the majors within 2 years, barring something unforeseen between now and the draft.

2. Reds:  Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, College(Louisville).  The Reds have long been rumored to want McKay at #2.  With Wright moving up to the Twins, they get their man.  McKay is an unusual talent in that he may have a better bat than arm, but I don't see him has having high first round talent in either role.  He'll most likely be a pitcher in the pros with a ceiling of #3 starter.

3.  Padres:  Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, HS.  Greene wants to go to the Padres, but do the Padres want him?  He may be the best athlete in the draft and could be a significant SS prospect, but the 100 MPH FB will keep him on the mound.  He has ace potential, but with the standard TINSTAAP warnings that come with hard throwing HS pitchers.

4.  Rays:  Royce Lewis, SS/OF, HS.  Lewis has oodles of athleticism but will he hit?  The Rays have suffered a huge talent drain from drafting players like him over the years.  North Carolina RHP JB Bakauskas would be a better pick here.

5.  Braves:  Shane Baz, RHP, HS.  Baz has taken on serious helium as the draft approaches.  The Braves love to draft HS pitching.  There is also talk of Trevor Rogers going to the Braves as well as HS OF Austin Beck.  I don't think they can go too wrong with any of those 3 names.

6.  A's:  Mackenzie Gore, LHP, HS.  Bakauskas has been going here in most mock drafts, but BA changes it up here.  I'm not sure why everybody seems to be in love with Gore who has good command of 4 pitches but whose FB is low 90's.  The A's should draft Bakauskas if he is still on the board.

7.  D'Backs:  Adam Haseley, OF, College(Virginia).  If you are an Andrew Benintendi fan, you should like Haseley too.  He would be a great pick for the D'Backs.

8.  Phillies:  Pavin Smith, 1B, College(Virginia).  Good hitter, but strictly a 1B.  Phillies have tended to draft toolsy HS players, but may now want the relative safety of Smith.

9.  Brewers:  Austin Beck, OF, HS.  Beck has caught serious helium this year and hit 3 bombs a couple of nights ago in his HS game.  Brewers like toolsy OF's, but I could see Beck going to the Rays at #4 or Braves at #5.  If he does would they role the dice on Jordan Adell?  Jeren Kendall would not be a bad bet here.

10.  Angels:  JB Bakauskas, RHP, College(North Carolina).  Great pick if he falls this far.  Has at least #2 SP potential and could be in the majors within 2 years.

11.  White Sox:  Alex Faedo, RHP, College(Florida).  Faedo has the physical tools to be an ace but has never been completely dominant in college.  I see him as more of an innings eater #3/4.

12.  Pirates:  Keston Hiura, 2B, College(UC Irvine).  Hiura has a bum elbow and may need TJ surgery.  He has great success at the plate with an unorthodox swing.  I would not take him this high.

13.  Marlins:  DL Hall, LHP, HS.  Top HS lefty.  A bit undersized but hits the upper 90's on the gun.

14.  Royals:  Trevor Rogers, LHP, HS.  Rogers seems to be moving up in recent mock drafts.  I love his physical projectability.

15.  Astros:  Jeren Kendall, OF, College(Vanderbilt).  Kendall's stock has taken a hit due to persistently high K rates.  That does not seem to fit the Astros rep as a very stats based organization.

16.  Yankees:  Bubba Thompson, OF, HS.  Another HS OF with serious helium.  Yanks can afford to take a risk here.  Thompson's ceiling is worth that risk.

17.  Mariners:  David Peterson, LHP, College(Oregon).  Pretty much everybody seems to think the Mariners will not pass on Peterson.  That's too bad because I want the Giants to draft him.

18.  Tigers:  Jake Burger, 3B, College(Missouri St.).  Great bat.  Bad body.  Won't cry if the Tigers take him 1 spot ahead of the Giants pick.

19.  Giants:  Clarke Schmidt, RHP, College(South Carolina).  Well, this is a buzzkill!  Not that Schmidt would be a terrible choice if healthy, but he went under the knife mid-season.  I suppose he could emerge next year better than ever, but not everybody makes a full recovery from TJ.  He'd be a better choice for a team with multiple supplemental picks.

20.  Mets:  Nick Pratto, 1B/LHP, HS.  Pratto has a sweet swing but is tied to 1B where he is underpowered.  He's a nice HS lefty pitcher but does not have pro-caliber velocity.  Classic tweener IMO.

21.  Orioles: Logan Warmoth, SS, College(North Carolina).  College SS with gap power who will likely move to 2B in the pros.  Giants pick, right?  I'd be happier with Schmidt.

22.  Blue Jays:  Evan White, 1B, College(Kentucky).  I have not profiled him yet.  Apparently a great college hitter, but first base.  I guess AL teams can better afford to draft those types.

23.  Dodgers:  Griffin Canning, RHP, College(UCLA).  Polished college pitcher.  Not a fan.  I'd be happy if the Dodgers took him.

24.  Red Sox:  Tanner Houck, RHP, College(Missouri).  Big, hard throwing RHP whose stats have not lived up to scouting reports.

25.  Nationals:  Seth Romero, LHP, College(Houston).  Talented but troubled lefty.  I would not draft him at all, but he's represented by Scott Boras who seems to have a special relationship with the Nationals.

26.  Rangers:  Sam Carlson, RHP, HS.  Classic size for a pitcher.  Has kind of a Matt Cain feel.  I'd prefer him over Schmidt for the Giants at #19.

27.  Cubs:  Blayne Enlow, RHP, HS.  There are several HS RHP's who all seem to come from the same cookie cutter.  Enlow is one of them.

28.  Blue Jays:  Alex Lange, RHP, College(LSU).  Throws hard with high effort.  Inconsistent results this year.  Seems like a reliever in the pros.

29.  Rangers:  Matt Sauer, RHP, HS.  Another HS RHP from the cookie cutter.  I'd be OK with any of these guys for the Giants at #19.

30.  Cubs:  Quentin Holmes, OF, HS.  Cubs can afford to take some chances. Holmes might be the fastest player in the draft.  Some questions about the bat.

31.  Rays: Stuart Fairchild, OF, College, Wake Forest.  I have not profiled him yet.

32.  Reds:  Jordan Adell, OF, HS.  Reds can afford to take a risk here.  IMO, Adell has the highest ceiling in the draft but is also the highest bust risk. It all comes down to the hit tool.  Gotta think some teams with multiple higher picks would be salivating for him.

33.  A's: Brian Miller, OF, College(North Carolina).  Solid college OF who can play CF and who the Giants are thought to be interested in.

34.  Brewers:  Corbin Martin, RHP, College(Texas A&M).  Hard throwing college pitcher who has been better since moving into A&M's rotation.

35.  Twins:  Nate Pearson, RHP, JC.  Very hard thrower.  Twins need to get away from drafting innings eating contact pitchers.  Wright at #1 and Pearson here would be a great place to get started on that.

36.  Marlins:  Heliot Ramos, OF, HS(Puerto Rico).  Toolsy OF who also looks like he can play.  Huge ceiling.  Great pick here.  I would not mind seeing him go to the Giants 17 picks earlier.


OK, just for comparison sake and without comment, here is John Sickels' Mock from Minor League Ball:

1.  Twins- McKay
2.  Reds- Wright
3.  Padres- Greene
4.  Rays- Gore
5.  Braves- Beck
6.  A's- Haseley
7.  D'Backs- Lewis
8.  Phillies- Bakauskas
9.  Brewers- Kendall
10. Angels- Pavin Smith
11. White Sox- Adell
12.  Pirates- DL Hall
13.  Marlins- Faedo
14.  Royals- Rogers
15.  Astros- Romero
16.  Yankees- Pratto
17.  Mariners- Peterson
18.  Tigers- Houck
19.  Giants-Warmoth(another buzzkill).
20.  Mets- Carlson
21.  Orioles- Burger
22.  Blue Jays- Canning
23.  Dodgers- Hans Crouse, RHP, HS.
24.  Red Sox- Lange
25.  Nationals- Hiura
26.  Rangers- Ramos
27.  Cubs- Wil Crowe, RHP, College(South Carolina).
28.  Blue Jays- Brendon Little, LHP, JC.
29.  Rangers- Baz
30.  Cubs- Nate Pearson
31.  Rays- Drew Waters, OF, HS.
32.  Reds- Bubba Thompson
33.  A's- Evan White
34.  Brewers- Nick Allen, SS, HS.
35.  Twins- Daniel Tillo, LHP, JC.
36.  Marlins- Mark Vientos, SS, HS.


  1. I hope the drafts first 18 picks goes the way Sickels has mocked. Then the Giants can get Shane Baz at #19. Initially I was surprised to see Baz all the way up at #5 in B.A.'s, but after thinking about it some more it makes sense.

    1. Baz is a stud. I would be very happy to see the Giants pick him at #19. Can't believe he will still be there, though.

  2. Hey DrB,

    Thanks for all the updates on the draft front. Like you say, Haseley is most likely a top 10 pick. I think David Peterson is an easy top 15 pick now too. I hope you'll take a look at Evan White, who sounds like a smaller & right-handed hitting version of Brandon Belt. Very similar skillsets, and a very interesting guy for me at this point.

    Cove Chatter

  3. It's nigh impossible to believe how thorough and thoughtful your draft coverage is!
    But, to what avail?
    I'm grateful you do the work, but not sure how to deal with it. Although I agree with EVEYTHING you say, and would follow it faithfully, if you take the permutations of 32 GMs, what do you get? Maybe a billion possibilities with unknowns picked and knowns unpicked.
    It's a lot more fun than either the NFL or NBA drafts which are relatively easy to figure and rarely have more than 1 or 2 surprises per round.
    Perhaps you should write down your first 30 choices, then as the "preseason" for the draft evolves you scratch out the "fails" and maybe insert the late bloomers until the draft day arrives. Scratch picks until you're on the board, and you think about your top 3 that are left, and close your eyes and pick.
    If this is reasonable, today, May 20, who are YOUR top 30?
    That's MY list!
    (You can asterisk those who are absolutely certain to be gone by #19 -- and we'll laugh over your misses!)
    Sorry for the cynicism, this is far above my brain power!

    1. I was updating my draft board with each additional name that I profiled but then the list got too long to write up each time. As the draft approaches, I will do some more profiles and then IF I have time, will post my own draft board AND a mock draft. How's that?