We've finished the Top 50 Giants Prospects list including honorable mentions and Dominican Dandies. Spring training is just getting underway, but no games to wrap yet. Maybe a good time to do a Q/A?
Please submit your questions about the Giants, Giants prospects, offseason, the 2015 amateur draft or anything about baseball. I'll do my best to answer. Please feel free to chime in with your own answers.
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I think the Giants have done a great job of drafting. Because they were hamstrung from making bigger trades do you think that will force them to change their draft philosophy? I understand doing what you can with low budget and getting best player available. In this draft Giants now have a decent budget...do they go after high upside guys or do you think they should continue to do what they are best at?
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it, the Giants can take a number of different routes this year. You are right that they have a very nice bonus pool to spend. They also have that supplemental pick for the first time in a few years. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see them replicate what they did in 2011, going hitter #1, pitcher in the supplemental round, and BPA in the second. The Giants are very hard to predict as far as drafts go, but they seem to be in a great position at #18 to grab a very nice prospect who falls a bit, just like they did with Beede last year.
DeleteThat is a really good question. The Giants have never played the high profile money game in the draft like Toronto and Houston, partly because they didn't have a lot of draft bonus pool dollars to play with and partly because it just isn't their way of doing business. On the other hand, they have made some really interesting under-the-radar drafting and signing of high upside HS kids that maybe other teams and the media analysts undervalued. The result is they have gotten some young, high upside prospects in their system for very cheap. I'm thinking of Blackburn, Murray, Woods, Webb, Riley who may not pan out after all and others.
DeleteWith the larger pool to work with, we may see them do a little more of that, but I don't expect them to go whole hog. In theory, it is probably better to draft the best player available at each draft position and pay them close to slot bonus than to try to save money at the top to pay more later, because first round draftees have a much higher chance of becoming impact players than later round draftees.
You can see what they did last time they had a comp pick. Started conservative with Panik. Got Crick in the Comp, and then got a 2nd round guy who fell in Susac. FWIW - That was pretty easily our best recent draft with those three at the top, plus Blackburn (16), Black (7th), and Derek Law (10). Maybe Bandilla or Osich still do something as well. But there was a bit of a holistic, creative approach they took that year.
DeleteWe're up even a little higher in the draft, and still have the comp. Hopefully we have a similar style and results.
Once Pablo left, Giants are hoping for a breakout season from Belt. Do you think he needs to change his approach? May be not his approach, but he has a habit of trying to pull everything hence all the shifts when he bats. I know he can't go to the opposite field when he is being pitched in. I guess my question is do you think Pence is better suited for 3rd in the line up?
ReplyDeleteIf you simply project Belt's numbers from last year out to 600 PA's, you get 29 HR's so I'm not sure he needs to change anything except to stay healthy all season. I do think he is going to have to do some things to cross up the shifts just often enough to keep the defenses honest. I also do think Pence would be better in the 3 hole with Belt moving down to #5. What I hope to see is Aoki leading off with Pagan hitting 3'rd, Pence 5'th and Belt 6'th.
DeleteI like Aoki leading off if Giants are going to hold Pagan back from stealing bases to stay healthy. I do like the speed ahead of Posey. Belt on second, can he score on a base hit? Pagan I know will. Pence I know will.
DeleteMy personal feeling is that Belt was continuing his second-half 2013 break out, but with more power, only to get a complete derail with the injuries. I think he's good for 25-to-30 home runs a year with decent OBP.
DeleteIn fact, he's one of the reasons I didn't get all the upset at Morse leaving. (Yes, Morse had power. He also gave away runs. What the net was, I don't know. But that he had a 1.0 WAR (3.6 lifetime WAR, of which 3.1 was from 2011) with terrible defense ratings tells me it wasn't that much.)
Anyway, I think Belt will make up for the loss of Morse (or Sandoval if that's your choice) when it comes to power. Or I could be totally wrong. That's the problem with (a) being a fan and (b) nobody knows the future... But at least I admit and enjoy the journey, even if it doesn't end with a championship.
DrB,
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing/reading/listening to the recent updates about Matt Cain, what are your expectations for him this season? Do you think his struggles of the last two years were directly related to the elbow problems, or was he just tiring after such a heavy workload earlier in his career? Thanks!
I have no idea what to expect from Matt Cain this year. Hopefully cleaning out his elbow will help, but he has a ton of miles on that arm.
DeleteI know you weren't for signing Lester Dr. B. Do you still feel that way after the moves the Giants made this off season? Part II, do you think Giants got it right by signing Peavy and Vogey instead of Shields?
ReplyDeleteBig, longterm contracts for pitchers are seldom good deals for the team. I am happy with Peavy and Vogey on short term deals and hope 1 or 3 of the kids on the farm takes a step forward this year. Giants have a ton of money coming off the books at the end of 2015 with a FA class that looks quite a bit stronger than this year's. I am pleased that Giants kept their powder dry.
DeleteIt's possible that Shields came close to being a Giant, but we may never know how reliable the report is since Heyman has a rep for jumping the gun and being a bit of a sensationalist: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25075306/shields-rebuffed-bigger-giants-offer-weeks-before-landing-in-san-diego
DeleteIf it's true, I think we dodged a bullet there on a contract that could have become an albatross, and get to keep our draft pick.
What are the odds the Giants draft a Catcher with one of the first 3 picks! Dr. B what do you think the position of need is in the Giants farm system? High School vs. College kids is it a big deal?
ReplyDeleteThe Giants clearly value catchers in the draft, so it's not a terrible bet. Not sure which one they might take, though.
DeleteEvery spring training a Giant gets a long term contract...who will it be this year?
ReplyDeleteI do not expect any long term contract extensions this spring. Belt is the obvious one, but his future is still too volatile to get a good valuation on, so it's not going to happen this year for him.
DeleteWhat about Boch, Doc, is this serious?
ReplyDeleteSounds like Boch was about to have a myocardial infarction. That's a big deal. Thankfully with the stents, he should be good as new in a few days. He needs to take his meds and give up the chaw if he hasn't already.
Deletehe has to give up the cigars and beer too
DeleteBusy morning already.
ReplyDeleteGreat questions and answers.
Hope Bochy recovers soon after his heart procedure. Wonder if he starts thinking retirement in the near future, though he seems fairly upbeat this morning, reading the article at CSN.
Hey Doc, If you were in the draft room, who would be your early 1st round, Supp round, and 2nd round choices? This is pretty much based on what you've seen so far from players.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the draft prospect reports, Doc! Having done so much research, if you were picking for the Giants, who would you choose in the first, supplemental and second rounds? I know a lot could change in the next few months and it depends heavily on who is picked ahead of the Giants, but what is your wish list?
ReplyDeleteI"ll put J's question and Junkie's together here. OK, I'm John Barr for a day. This draft class is deep in pitching and a little light on hitting. If either Ian Happ or Alonzo Jones are available at #18, I take them to get my hitter, then take pitchers in the supplemental round and 2'nd round.
DeleteHapp is a switch-hitter without significant splits. He hits for average, power and has speed. He can play 2B or move to the OF and even has the speed to play CF.
As a HS hitter, Jones has more risk than Happ. His main advantage in upside is his blinding speed. I like the speed, switch-hitting and tree-trunk-like arms. To me, if you are hankering after Yoan Moncada, Jones gives you everything but experience against advanced competition at a small fraction of the price.
For the Supplemental first round, pick 31, I would take whatever HS pitcher falls between Beau Burrows or Donny Everett. I might like Burrows a bit better, but I would bet the Giants like Everett better. Nikorak would also be a consideration, but I have not researched him yet and he might not fall into the supplemental round.
Fallback option for the supplemental round would be one of many solid, but not spectacular college pitchers who should be available there.
I have not gotten deep enough into the draft research to know who might be available in Round 2 yet.
I have been working on an early 2 round mock draft (61 picks, ending with the Giants round 2 selection). In this particular draft, I have Alex Bregman sliding to the Giants at 18 (which would be a very nice pick in that spot, in my opinion). I have Cody Ponce of Pomona going #17 overall... he's one of the college arms that I have been impressed with so far. Like DrB, I'd really like the Giants to go with some kind of high-ceiling player with their first pick, preferably a hitter. Trenton Clark, Alonzo Jones, Nick Plummer, Kyle Tucker, Chris Betts and a few others fit this profile.
DeleteIn my mock, I have the Giants taking power righty Jake Lemoine out of Houston for the #31 selection. He's one pick ahead of Juan Hillman, a smaller prep lefty with a pretty nice scouting profile. If a guy like Nikorak, Burrows or Everett is available there, that would be a sweet pick too.
How about this for a second round pick... Thomas Eshelman? Eshelman rarely gets any mention on draft prospect sites, but I don't see a huge difference between him and Aaron Nola, last year's darling. Maybe taking Eshelman that high wouldn't be a reality... in that case, there should be some other interesting college hitters and arms available at that spot. If he falls to the second round, which I see as highly unlikely, I'd love for the Giants to grab 100 mph arm Josh Staumont from Azusa Pacific.
Just saw a post on D1 Baseball that Mike Matuella, the current consensus #1 overall pick is skipping his start this weekend due to the dreaded forearm tightness. More often than not, then next headline you read is something about Tommy John Surgery, but we'll see.
DeleteOh gosh wow
DeleteI caught that too. That isn't good news, for sure. Health has been his biggest obstacle to date as well.
Deleteupdated and said he had an MRI that was clean and only showed some inflammation. Nothing wrong with the ligament. What it does do though is not help his case that he can be durable
DeleteIf I had a dollar for every MRI that was reported to be OK in these cases and the pitcher later ended up with a tear and TJ, I could quit my day job. For his sake, I hope it's true and it can be healed with rest, but I would not be so sure. It is my understanding that UCL tears are not so easy to see even on MRI's.
DeleteMRI's definitely can miss things and not all MRI machines are the same. I have had negative MRI results before only to send the patient back for an Arthrogram (MRI with dye contrast) that picked up a tear in the meniscus or labrum.
DeleteDo you think he could end up being a Jeff Hoffman like play similar to what the Blue Jays did or is his lack of durability track record going to knock him all the way down to may supplemental or round 2?
DeleteEven if he ends up going under Dr Andrews' knife, I think someone will draft him in the first round. The Giants have shown they are not afraid of post-TJ pitchers, but I don't know if they would spend a first rounder on him.
DeleteWhat role on the pitching staff do you see Yusmeiro Petit evolving into in the next 1-3 years? According to a Schulman tweet, Petit was one of the most asked about in trade talks.
ReplyDeleteLG
If Petit repeats what he did last year, I think he could move into a full time starter role in 2016 when Huddy, Vogey and possibly Timmy are all going to be gone.
Delete