The Padres and James Shields have agreed to a 4 year contract worth between $72 M and $78 M. This was probably not the deal Shields was hoping to get, but it is still a darn good deal for him. As for the Padres, they add a workhorse SP, albeit one with a lot of innings on his arm, to a rotation that already was not bad at all. Shields, Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy is certainly a very competitive front 4 with several candidates, led by Odrisamer Despaigne(one of my favorite names in baseball) competing for the 5'th spot. That looks like a much more solid rotation than what the Giants are starting the season with, from my vantage point. The deal is probably 1 year too long from the Padres perspective, but that is also probably quibbling.
Padres fans must be feeling optimistic with the addition of a couple of big bats, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton into a lineup that should score more runs for the Padres quite good rotation. The downside of all this? The Padres IF is still very weak and team defense projects to be downright horrific. A lot will depend on how well Wil Myers handles CF and if his bat rebounds from a disappointing season for the Rays last year.
I honestly don't know how it will all play out, but the Padres have made some bold moves and will be an interesting test case for some interesting statistical baseball theories involving the relative value of things like OF defense and Catcher pitch framing vs power and pitching.
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I think the Padres will be much improved but I still do not see them as a playoff team. Kennedy and Shields are the only 2 pitchers on their roster who have pitched a complete season. The others have an injury history (Cashner) or rookies with little experience.
ReplyDeleteI really like the moves the Padres have made and they should get credit for going for it! Much like the Giants, they have a pitchers ballpark which means it is harder to get free agent bats to sign there so instead of making excuses like the Giants, they went out and pulled off some amazing trades to boost offense. The Giants on the other hand are back to using excuses and trying to sugar coat what is going to be one of the least productive offenses in the last 30 years. Quick question for you Dr. B, how do you see the offense being effective with a guy like Posey in the middle of the order with no protection? By that I mean a guy who has no speed whatsoever and will require 3 singles to score him from 1B. I see him getting walked like Bonds and stranded on base more than anyone else in the history of the game.
ReplyDeleteThis is a pretty obvious troll post, but I'll go ahead and publish it because it raises some points that are worth responding to.
Delete1. Lineup protection is something that has been analyzed by the statisticians. It is a small factor if if even exists at all.
2. The Giants signed a high OBP guy who can lead off which could enable them to move Pagan to the 3 hole. A 3,4,5 of Pagan, Posey and Pence with Belt hitting 6'th and McGehee/Crawford anchoring the 7 and 8 holes is not a terrible middle of the order and should provide plenty of protection for Buster Posey. If Pagan stays at leadoff, a 6, 7, 8 of Aoki, McGehee, Crawford or McGehee, Aoki, Crawford gives you a strong finish to the lineup.
3. A healthy Brandon Belt should produce at least 25 HR's possibly more than 30 and can bat 3'rd, 5'th or 6'th. Either Belt or Pence should hit in the 5 hole which again, gives you a better than decent middle of the order.
4. If you believe in defensive metrics, the Padres D is going to be absolutely terrible, especially in that huge OF. They could easily give back more than 100 runs on defense relative to the Giants.
5. Once you get past Upton and Kemp, and I'm not sure I buying Justin Upton's offense in that ballpark, what offense to the Padres really have? Myers was terrible last year and is moving to a tougher ballpark and tougher division to hit in. The IF is still Pathetic. Norris, for all of his defensive failings, is no great menace at the plate. He will struggle to hit double digit HR's while giving away countless runs on defense. I'm just not ready to buy that the Padres offense is all that. Better than the last couple of years? Yes. All that? I'm not buying it yet!
Just from a historical perspective, I can't think of any team that makes these kind of wholesale changes and ends up winning it all. Every year teams try it and then many end up dismantling them a year or two later. Will the Padres be a better team than last year? Probably. Will they be good enough to win it all? No. Personally I am not concerned about the Padres this year at all. Its going to come down to the Giants and The Dodgers again with the other three teams fighting the rest of the places within the division.
DeleteBilly Baseball
We have proved year in and year out that we do not need a whole lot of power to win. 162 HR in 2010 (10th in MLB, 6th in NL), 103 HR in 2012 (25th in MLB, 16th in NL) and 132 HR in 2014 (25th in MLB, 7th in NL). I am sick and tired of people complaining about lack of home runs. The Giants have proved that when healthy we can win. 2011 and 2013 we were riddled with injuries. 2014 had a decent taste of injuries as well. However, if you want to say that the Giants are praying that Cain and Pagan return to a decent form I think that is a fair analysis. By them returning healthy it is almost like we have 2 free agents we did not have in the playoffs. That is huge. McGehee was the Comeback Player of the Year and I expect some of his power to go up. Marlins Park is pretty deep and I think he will hit a decent amount of HR at AT&T. AT&T is a little more forgiving for right handed hitters. Aoki is also a nice player to have. He can get on base and he will not kill you in defense or on the bases like Morse. Overall I expect our offense to be good enough to make a playoff run if our starting pitching can be as effective as 2014 and that is not asking for a lot. Cain was 2-7 and Lincecum got banished to the pen and we still found a way to win enough games.
DeleteAlmost half of the Padres came from other teams this offseason. I highly doubt their chemistry will be that great. I can honestly see them digging a huge whole at the beginning of the year. I expect them to be pretty good in 2016 though.
I"m not sure everything they've done will amount to as much as the pre-season hype has made it to sound. Kemp has been defensive liability for years and will no longer be hitting in a hitter's park to make up for it. Myers, despite having a one-vote for ROY half-season in 2013, is certainly anything but battle tested and established and at this point in time Blanco puts up a better WAR and he's the #4 OF on the Giants.
ReplyDeleteI do respect the Upton acquisition, in that his positives outweigh his negatives by enough that he's someone I consider to be a very good player. But the guy he is replacing (Seth Smith) was a good player so it's not even a major upgrade. And he's another who has to be tagged with the caveat of he's going from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park and he's not exactly a defensive outfielder...
In the meantime their infield still sucks and is one of the worst in MLB. Norris is a good offensive-prospect catcher, but Riviera was not chopped liver behind the plate. And by last year's WAR, he's a downgrade over Riviera (if only on paper).
Their pitching staff got a decent upgrade as Shields will knock off the worst of the starting rotation. But Shields is in decline. And he's a high-mileage guy. The kind of veteran I'd sign to 'win now' instead of trying to get a few extra victories for a team that needs a rebuilt infield.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them not finish that much better than they have the past three years. Maybe they win 80 games with an enough replacement player additional offense to over-come the replacement player defensive issues to go with a somewhat improved rotation.
But, in the end, we'll see. I mean, who knows, a bunch of guys could turn it around, have career years, not get injured, break-out, etc and the Padres could win 100 games as a Cinderella team. I have my doubts. I think they're still the #3 team in the division.
Read somewhere today that a prominent writer (Gammons?) doesn't like the Padres moves because they hamper their ability to win a few years from now. Meaning, they've basically traded away the farm (or at least all former #1 picks) and they'll be left with aging stars. I get it, GMs want to win now and so do the fans. But I think that the Giants are being very prudent about the whole thing. As an aside, I didn't realize that Donovan Tate was out of baseball last year. Goes to show that some #1's never pan out. We, as Giants fans, lament the 2007 draft when we had so many #1 picks and really only one did anything of note. Granted, he's a total stud, but you would think we would have better success (yes, we pawned off Alderson for Freddie S). Anyway, the point is that not all picks work out. So many thought that Tate would be a sure thing...
ReplyDeleteAlan
Very true about first rounders, especially rounds 15 or so on.
DeleteDon't forget Culberson turned into a glorious 3 months of Marco Scutaro. Flags fly forever!
Very true! Thanks for catching that.
DeleteAlan
From what I read they kept their Top-3, but did trade away 11 prospects over-all.
DeleteI think for the Dodgers, they still believe their enemy is St. Louis.
ReplyDeleteTo them, this is really no big deal.
ReplyDeleteAnd as DrB points out, there is little difference to be had with line-up games The statistically best #1 lineup for the Giants (Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford) is 0.4 games better than the #25 most effective lineup (Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Crawford-Pitcher) and only 2.5 games better than the statistically worst (McGeHee-Belt-Pagan-Aoki-Pence-Panik-Crawford-Posey-Pitcher) batting order.
What we'll likely see for an everyday lineup is something along the lines of:
Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence Aoki, McGehee, Crawford, Pitcher. With the caveat that there could be BO swapping in the 3-4-5 slots as well as between Panik and Aoki.
With Pagan, Panik, and Belt atop the lineup...Posey's role is to drive in runs! He has great on base guys ahead of him.
ReplyDeletePadres have made a lot of positive noise this off season. I just question if they have ME first players or TEAM first guys. I want to see how they handle bumps in the road...losing streaks. Will they rally together or will they point fingers.
DrB,
DeleteNice post, as usual.
Justin, remember there is no "I" in "TEAM", but there is an "M" and an "E"! :)
I think the Aoki signing is the one that gets us back to the Fall Classic. Keeps the line moving and extends the batting order. Also good defense and fundamentals. Plus the gritty country boys in the rotation coming back.
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Projections in February are built on if's.
ReplyDeleteWith Pagan, Belt and Cain for a full season, they are different from 2014 but very good. Aoki getting on base and McGehee hitting line drives into the gaps makes it a better team.
If Hudson comes back and Peavy pitches against NL teams not AL teams, the staff is strong through 4 and maybe one of the "old" Giants will fill the rotation.
The job of the GM is to put a team on the field the CAN (has the ability to) win.
On paper the Giants can win. Will they?
Since it's February I am optimistic.
Check back in June.
This team will succeed or fail on it's pitching. Sabes has gotten some depth, but lots of ifs and land mines. They need to stay competitive until the trade deadline. Sabes has left some room for midseason upgrades.
DeleteI am pretty optimistic about the team. I agree with Doc B about the pitching being the key and think the top 4 in the rotation will step up. Bum will be fine despite the innings, Cain says he feels wonderful and they are having to hold him back, those are great signs. Being able to finally get full extension in his elbow should allow him to reach back and get back to a more consistent 93-94 mph on the FB. Peavy should be fine, he is not as old as he seems, his bad half season in the AL is behind him. Hudson may take a few extra weeks to get going but he killed it last year in the first half, skipping a few starts at the start of the season may actually be a good thing for his arm. Due to having to wait to get signed, I think Vogie will really come out with that huge chip on his shoulder and pitch well. Lincecum is the biggest question of all for me, is he going to find it or is he really pretty much washed up, its a contract year so........
DeleteWith that we are locked in at the #18 selection
ReplyDelete#18, 31 and I think somewhere around 60. Should get 3 good prospects in the first 2 rounds. Having the extra pick also gooses the bonus pool, giving the Giants some serious money to play around with for the first time.
Delete61 I believe but yeah I'd bet college with 18 yoot with 31 and wildcard with 60.
Deleteby the way our boy Hooper isn't really getting a lot of love at the moment. Could he conceivably fall to the Giants at 18 though?
Delete